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Da webster guy

Kipers predictions for last year Round 1

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Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Edited by Da webster guy
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43 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

Kipers success rate is about as bad as they come.  If Skip Bayless knocked up Stephen A. Smith at the NFL Draft, Mel Kiper would be their love baby.  

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Looks a little early in the process..it’s before free agency..

 

I think his Top half was more accurate than the bottom half..

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Kiper, while longer being a polarizing pundit, is being held to an impossible standard. Too may variables to consider. Teams drafting BOA or need. Trades of draft choices and players. What counts is the quality of the selections he makes, far more than does a specific team get a specific player that might have been projected to them. Hell, let's throw logic, reasoning and intelligence out the window and hang him. The very same goes for all the pundits, most of which do have far more knowledge, information, and tape on players than any here. Don't feed to mob mentality.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

You're right, they're all off the mark, because what they're attempting to do is statistically impossible.

 

Back when he was submitting his mocks to the Huddle Report, Kiper had a five-year record that was in the top five of all mock-drafters. He's very good at what he does.

 

A good mock draft will have guys in the right neighborhood and a thoughtful look at team needs.

 

Predicting precisely what some one person will do, particularly when they're facing a board that will be different from what the mocker thought it would be ... is impossible. The only way to do well at it is to have sources on the teams feeding you info. And feeding a guy like Kiper or Mayock specifics is a fireable offense. General stuff about who you think is good, mixed in with some red herrings, is common, but actually tell who you'll pick and you'd be gone.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1
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That just highlights why you shouldn't even read mock before free agency.  Browns fans were having anxiety attacks that they'd pick Josh Allen for three months.  Heck, I would argue you shouldn't read mock drafts until the day of the draft.

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Not sure why anyone cares if someone's mock is "accurate." They don't know who a team is going to take. The thing these pundits should be held accountable for is their assessment of the players.

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2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That just highlights why you shouldn't even read mock before free agency.  Browns fans were having anxiety attacks that they'd pick Josh Allen for three months.  Heck, I would argue you shouldn't read mock drafts until the day of the draft.

 

It always cracks me up when these guys publish a new version of their mock draft when nothing new is going on. 

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3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Looks a little early in the process..it’s before free agency..

 

I think his Top half was more accurate than the bottom half..

 

Yes very early... also before the Jets trade-up to #3 and the Bills trade to #12 w/ Bengals.

 

Here's his final one.  I don't subscribe to ESPN, so can't see all the pics beyond the first two

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/23317544/final-nfl-mock-draft-2018-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks

 

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That’s quite an assumption that the NFL team was correct in all 32 draft picks.

 

its like assuming every call by the replay booth was correct and attacking the broadcast rules expert for not predicting what the booth would decide

 

 

 

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Me and a group of my friends play a gm every year in the draft.  We all do a mock has to be turned in on the Monday before the draft. I usually hit on 6 to 7 exact spots. We also have a scoring system in place based on if u get the position the team drafts correctly or if u can predict a trade . It makes the draft like your playing Fantasy football it's very entertaining.  We also grade the top draft gurus out there like the Mayocks, Kipers and McShay . Nearly half of the people playing this gm usually outscore these guys.

 

Scoring system for 1st Rd Mock Draft Game.

5pts - Predict Player in spot with Trade teams need to be picked exactly. 

 

4pts- Predict player in exact draft slot with exact team

 

3pts - Player goes in draft slot doesn't matter if u get the team right. 

 

2pts- Team drafts the position correctly that u predicted . This shows u can correctly predict team needs. 

 

1pt - For each player u have going in the first rd. This is totaled up after the completion of the first rd.  U get 24 players u get 24 out of 32 Pts.  

Edited by BillsFan1988

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6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Going back to 2013, I've nailed Dustin Hopkins, Cyrus Kouandjio, John Miller, Reggie Ragland, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Harrison Phillips & Wyatt Teller.

 

Maybe the team needs to stop listening to me :D

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6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

 

I totally disagree with this take ... he maybe doesn't get the right team .. but he had 80% of the top 10 picks .. (8 for 10) he called Edmunds and Rosen that dropped to picks 11-20 ... my point is ... he's the original ... he created a bunch of cash flow in an industry that now has a bunch of copy cats (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery) ... mad props to Mel ... he provides insight to players I don't see often .. I'll take Mel and mocks any day in February when there is no football (all due respect to the new league on CBS).

 

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6 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

Um ... that wasn’t his final mock. He got 4 right. Given trades, it’s hard to predict a whole lot more than that. https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/nfl-mock-draft-2018-picks-mel-kiper-mike-mayock-todd-mcshay-20180427.html

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Given the woeful success rate of most teams with their First Round pick maybe they should save a whole lot of time and effort and just listen to Mel!  How bad could it be?

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I’m always more interested in how many guys were mocked within about 5-10 spots from where they were selected. That tells me that the guy doing it has a pretty good handle on the value of certain players. There is so much movement that you can’t necessarily pick the teams. If you look though at the players mocked between like 5-20 that SHOULD give you a sense for the guys that the Bills will be looking at if they stay where they are.

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8 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

I Would give him a break since so mich occurred between this mock and the real draft. Lots of trades and teams signing free agents- mock drafts now simply tell you a ball park of when a player will be drafted.

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8 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Well, he got ONE out of 32 correct (saquon to the Gmen)

 

Interesting that he had Josh going first to the Browns and Tremaine going to daBears at 8.

 

I posted this because I forgot how ridiculously off the mark every mock is, every year without fail.   I think the only time I ever guessed right on the Bills was Dareus, and a lot of people saw that happening.

 

Kiper may be a blowhard, but he's well connected and he has a 97% fail rate. 

Right in the meaty part of the curve....

https://www.espnsa.com/2018-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-mel-kipers-picks-1-32/

 

 

For Clarity....  Is this in reference to the Person and the Team he guessed? 

 

Or

 

Does this include the guys he thought should be in specific rounds?

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# 1 Cleveland Browns   >>  Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming   ??

 

But most "experts" had Josh 4th best QB 

 

-1 for Allen to CLE 

 

+ 1 Allen a first round QB.  

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2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

I totally disagree with this take ... he maybe doesn't get the right team .. but he had 80% of the top 10 picks .. (8 for 10) he called Edmunds and Rosen that dropped to picks 11-20 ... my point is ... he's the original ... he created a bunch of cash flow in an industry that now has a bunch of copy cats (imitation is the sincerest form of flattery) ... mad props to Mel ... he provides insight to players I don't see often .. I'll take Mel and mocks any day in February when there is no football (all due respect to the new league on CBS).

 

I gotta agree. When you take a guys 2nd mock and so much is still yet to happen??? Jets were still 6 here!!

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1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

# 1 Cleveland Browns   >>  Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming   ??

 

But most "experts" had Josh 4th best QB 

 

-1 for Allen to CLE 

 

+ 1 Allen a first round QB.  

Kiper was the original Allen guy.  Not really sure this means anything because in the real draft, the Browns chose Mayfield.  Kiper sucks.

 

there are a bunch of things that suck right now in this country.  But if you need to believe in how awesome America is, look no further than Mel Kiper. Community college education, never played/ coached/ or was in a front office in football in any level.  Yet, he has made millions being a “draft expert” who fans get excited or mad about their team’s draft because of his rankings.  ‘Merica!!!

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33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Kiper was the original Allen guy.  Not really sure this means anything because in the real draft, the Browns chose Mayfield.  Kiper sucks.

 

there are a bunch of things that suck right now in this country.  But if you need to believe in how awesome America is, look no further than Mel Kiper. Community college education, never played/ coached/ or was in a front office in football in any level.  Yet, he has made millions being a “draft expert” who fans get excited or mad about their team’s draft because of his rankings.  ‘Merica!!!

Kiper mocked Mayfield to the Browns in subsequent mocks. Also, don't dis passionate amateurs. They're the people who make life interesting. 

Edited by dave mcbride

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17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Kiper mocked Mayfield to the Browns in subsequent mocks. Also, don't dis passionate amateurs. They're the people who make life interesting. 

Kiper was the first national guy I remember hyping up Allen. 

 

And i I love the mocks and the stuff before the draft. I also respect Kiper as a business man because he has no actual football background.  But I don’t value his opinion anymore than certain posters on this board.  But salute to him for figuring out how to get back with no actual real skill in player evaluations.

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