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Zay Jones: The numbers show that he is a #2.


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6 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Well there’s is no doubt he has improved a bit since last year.  I also would be fine keeping him on the roster.

 

My only point is that this season his stats don’t really give a good idea of his true contributions this years. While they are decent stats for a #2, I do believe that many of his catches came at the end of the game when defenses were allowing catches in front of them.  I also remember a number of very untimely drops from Zay and can’t remember one game where he really took over like good receivers do.

 

like I said, he has improved but still has a long way to go.  I do agree a better #1 WR would help his production

 

...fair enough...he's on probation until we set what draft/FA bring to the table and the eventual camp as well as pre-season competition....stay tuned............

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4 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Pretty sure Zay was drafted to be a solid #2 receiver? He’s on his way to becoming one. So not sure what the problem is. 

He needs to catch the ball...

27 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

Eric Moulds

1996 20 rec 279 yards

1997 27 rec 294 yards

When you have to quote wr stats from the 90's you know the guy you are comparing him to is in trouble.

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31 minutes ago, offyourocker said:

Eric Moulds

1996 20 rec 279 yards

1997 27 rec 294 yards

 

Except Moulds wasn't the #2 WR in either of those seasons

 

1996 Andre Reed    66    1036
1996 Quinn Early    50    798
1996 Steve Tasker    21    372

 

1997 Andre Reed    60    880
1997 Quinn Early    60    853

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6 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

He's a garbage-time specialist.  He was in college too.  

 

The only reason why he has as many receptions as he does is entirely due to lack of options. 

I dont agree with Ghost much.....but I do here.....it seems like Zay's numbers come AFTER the game has been dedided (usually a loss)

 

You dont see him making the play when the game i on the line.

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Right now I consider Zay no higher than a #4 slot guy and that's borderline. Robert Foster is a clear #3 wr who becomes your deep "stretch the field" guy. This team currently has no #1 or #2 wr. I think Tyrell Williams would make a good #2 and either Marquise Brown or NKeal Harry as a #1 projected guy? I've seen Brown and Harry projected late 1st or early 2nd.

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Receiver is a position that has a steeper learning curve than most.  Rookies can sometimes make a splash, but it usually can take a couple of years before you know what you have.

 

I see a guy who made a huge leap from last year, but is still inconsistent.  He will benefit from the Bills adding a true 1 to the roster.

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4 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Probably so.  How many on this board have the player college evals and knowledge that the coaches, GMs, and scouts have on draft day?  Do you?  Doubt it.  Hindsight is pretty much what we have in absence of professional scouting reports, not the stuff that the Mel Kipers and Mike Mayocks of the world put out.  

 

You evaluate their production relative to their draft position, not to other players that you could have had at that specific position.

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11 hours ago, Binghamton Beast said:

But....he is a #1 right now (I think) and only has that number. What if he was looked at as a #2? What would his catch total be? What has it been the last four weeks or so with Foster’s emergence?

 

IMO, Zay is a borderline 3/4 receiver. Dime a dozen guy that belongs nowhere near the top two.

No Foster is the #1.  He is Josh Allen's preferred Target and the player teams try to shut down.

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The statistical analysis cited to demonstrate Zay is a 2 is about as deep a dive as jumping into a puddle.  It proves nothing.  The fact is, much of his production comes when games were not in doubt:

 

He had 3 catches for 26 yards late at Baltimore.  2 catches for 63 yards versus SD when Buffalo was down 21-3 or worse.  He had 1 catch at Minnesota for 17 yards when the score was 27-0.  At GB, his 4 catches for 38 yards all came when the score was 19-0 or worse.  Against Indy, he had 1 catch for 15 yards with the score 24-0.  He had 3 catches for 7 yards versus Chicago with the difference of 28 points or worse.  At the Jets, 3 of his catches (for 28 yards) came with Buffalo up more than 2 TDs. And at NE, all 5 of his receptions for 67 yards came with Buffalo out of it.  

 

By my count, that's 22 catches for 261 yards (and 2 TDs) when the game is not in question.  There aren't many WR2s who log 45% of their production in garbage time.     

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I wanted Zay or Kupp in that draft. I was happy with Zay, but not with the fact we traded up to get him to jump ahead of Carolina. 

 

I still an not not a fan of the drops and he catches the ball too often with his body. Maybe,  he just can’t handle the heat from Allen’s fast ball. 

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20 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The fact that you have to go back to his college days proves how poor your point is. College ceases to matter once you're on an NFL roster. Zay's stats - in the NFL - do show he's a #2.

 

I didn't actually.  I simply knew his collegiate track record as part of my draft analysis.  The team's "experts"would have been well-served to have done the same.

 

My statement that you refer to was predicated ENTIRELY on this season's splits.

 

Why do i have to comment on posts like yours?

 

Did you even bother to look at much less analyze them?  Sounds kind of like the people I was just referring to.

 

In other news, Zay presently, thru 15 games that us, ranks 183rd league-wide in catch %.

 

Sound like a solid #2 to you?  

 

Scratch that, of course it does.

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To Zay's credit he has improved this year.  He went from being horrible all the time to only being horrible half the time.  All this from a person (me) who expected him to be like Cooper Kupp or Josh Reynolds.  When I saw him in the Senior Bowl I thought he was going to be great.  He still might but he needs to learn how to consistently catch the damn ball.

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17 hours ago, /dev/null said:

If it takes two years to develop a solid number two, it's time for Metamucil

I would take the time to look at the history of receivers and how long it takes the vast majority to make the transition to what they are fully capable of at this level. 

 

Yes, there are outliers, but the general trend is it takes three to five years. Ever heard of Robert Wood? Andre Reed? Tim Brown? Etc?

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No. He is not a two on most teams.  Most teams with better talent would not stand for the drops and the inconsistencies in route running.  He is still afforded more development time due to his age.  

 

He is a 3 or 4 or 5 on a strong playoff team.  Maybe not even that if he doesn’t play special teams. 

Edited by Bob in STL
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18 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I dont agree with Ghost much.....but I do here.....it seems like Zay's numbers come AFTER the game has been dedided (usually a loss)

 

You dont see him making the play when the game i on the line.

 

Here's the thing John, and I'm seriously not trying to be snotty or anything, but there is data, stats out there, that reveal exactly where/when/etc. his catches have come.  

 

We don't have to watch or subject ourselves to a semi-subjective "eye test," we can go and directly look at the numbers and data to find out.  I don't even remember which of numerous sites I went to to look that up.  Yeah, I get it, stats don't always tell the whole story, but they tell a whole lot of it.  What's left is reconciliations between the "eye test" and the actual results.  That's where sound analysis comes into play.  

 

Either way, Jones is going to finish the season with around 600 yards, on a team starving for WR talent.  He's currently ranked 183rd league-wide in catch-%, something that he's struggled with since he came to the NFL.  And that's with an enormous boost from his 183rd status (out of 200) up from 210th (out of 212) last season.  

 

He's got zero 100-yard games.  Only 1 game over 70 yards, and a mere 5 games greater than 55 yards.  

 

I mean who honestly thinks that those are starting, meaning #1 or #2, WR numbers?  If he were on the Jets, Fins, or Pats would everyone here be arguing the same?  Heck, people don't give Hogan the same credit despite much better numbers and a far greater impact.  

 

He also ranks tied for 192nd in YAC.  

 

Here are some of his weaknesses from his draft profile, maybe McBeane should have paid a little bit more attention to them, particularly that 4th one, since they typically doom WRs entering the NFL.  

 

WEAKNESSES

 Play speed is very average.

Lacks vertical push to force cornerbacks to open and run early and doesn't have second gear to separate from coverage down the field. Thin frame.

Struggles to find clean releases against press coverage due to play strength and foot quickness.

High-volume production helped by high percentage of short throws and wide receiver screens.

Sticky out of breaks and unable to shake tight coverage.

Limited amount of burst and wiggle after the catch and won't create much more than is there. 

 

Sound/look familiar?  

 

Edited by TaskersGhost
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On 12/29/2018 at 5:47 AM, Binghamton Beast said:

But....he is a #1 right now (I think) and only has that number. What if he was looked at as a #2? What would his catch total be? What has it been the last four weeks or so with Foster’s emergence?

 

IMO, Zay is a borderline 3/4 receiver. Dime a dozen guy that belongs nowhere near the top two.

 

 

+ 1

 

Does almost nothing for this team.

 

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23 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Right now I consider Zay no higher than a #4 slot guy and that's borderline. Robert Foster is a clear #3 wr who becomes your deep "stretch the field" guy. This team currently has no #1 or #2 wr. I think Tyrell Williams would make a good #2 and either Marquise Brown or NKeal Harry as a #1 projected guy? I've seen Brown and Harry projected late 1st or early 2nd.

I dont think there is a team in the league with a number 4 that good.

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23 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I dont agree with Ghost much.....but I do here.....it seems like Zay's numbers come AFTER the game has been dedided (usually a loss)

 

You dont see him making the play when the game i on the line.

Yup the game today was definitly in garbage time when the score was 7-0 in the first quarter.

23 hours ago, Success said:

Receiver is a position that has a steeper learning curve than most.  Rookies can sometimes make a splash, but it usually can take a couple of years before you know what you have.

 

I see a guy who made a huge leap from last year, but is still inconsistent.  He will benefit from the Bills adding a true 1 to the roster.

You might as well save your breath man.  Some people on this board dont realise that and refuse to accept it even when you back it up.

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2 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Yup the game today was definitly in garbage time when the score was 7-0 in the first quarter.

You might as well save your breath man.  Some people on this board dont realise that and refuse to accept it even when you back it up.

Jones had a good game today.....but you would not agree that he has not been consistant?

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I agree that Jones is a solid 2.  I also believe Foster can be an electric option out of the slot. 

 

Bills need a true #1 to attract the double team and truly free these guys up.

 

Also having a solid TE threat will alleviate that.  It all comes down to finding that number 1

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