Zay Jones: The numbers show that he is a #2.

[The Bills Blog]

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

[Freddie's Dead]

Zay is indeed #2.

[TroutDog]

He’s in his second year and will improve to a solid number two. It has been discussed in all of the Zay threads that the switch to the NFL for receivers typically takes a number of years. 

 

We we must be patient. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just think where he’d be if he actually caught the balls that were thrown to him!

[Beast]

But....he is a #1 right now (I think) and only has that number. What if he was looked at as a #2? What would his catch total be? What has it been the last four weeks or so with Foster’s emergence?

 

IMO, Zay is a borderline 3/4 receiver. Dime a dozen guy that belongs nowhere near the top two.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I think it just boils down to needing 1 really good outside WR. I think in the common way that people view these “#1/#2#3” WRs;

 

Foster is the other outside guy. The “second” option from an outside WR perspective. Probably the “Z” in most common formation terms. Can stretch the field but also can be the presnap motion guy with the little pop passes and creative ball in space stuff. Probably better as the guy on the opposite of the “go to.”  Foster will benefit from single coverage and make a team pay for doubling the other WR. Foster has become a very nice find and can be very important to this offense going forward.

 

In my eyes Zay has always been better suited to be an inside guy. The slot WR.  A high catch volume, underneath catch and run guy. The closer to the qb the better. Forget trying to play him on the outside. It’s not working. 

 

McKenzie is the first guy off the bench that can probably play inside or out. He also can be used in several trick plays and jet sweeps. The jack of all trades guy that you keep and find ways to get in space.

 

What we need now is a true #1 outside WR. A go to guy that can be a cornerstone of this offense for a decade and beat double teams. We need an AJ Green type player to complete this set of WRs. We have some pretty solid pieces in place. A true #1 outside option will put us in amazing shape. Looking at the Free agent class, we will have to find one in the draft or Via trade. I’m not in the camp of us needing a ton of WRs. I think we need 1 guy that will start. Then there will be a need for that 5th guy that is mostly used as a STs guy. That won’t be hard to find and I’m figuring one of the guys currently on the bottom of our depth chart can handle that. Probably Bolden.

[Captain_Quint]

Zay needs to get off the LOS better if hes going to be a slot possession receiver. 

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Binghamton Beast said:

But....he is a #1 right now (I think) and only has that number. What if he was looked at as a #2? What would his catch total be? What has it been the last four weeks or so with Foster’s emergence?

 

IMO, Zay is a borderline 3/4 receiver. Dime a dozen guy that belongs nowhere near the top two.

 

Agreed. 

 

He can't get open against Man Coverage. Hard to call him a #2 guy when he does all his damage against zone coverage. 

 

One on one on the outside he's been useless all year. 

 

He has 50 catches because we don't have anyone else, but having 50 catches doesn't make him a #2 WR. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by jrober38

[Ronin]

2 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

He's a garbage-time specialist.  He was in college too.  

 

The only reason why he has as many receptions as he does is entirely due to lack of options. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[Happy]

Zay will end up being a decent receiver, but no where near JuJu in Pittsburgh or Cooper Kupp in LA.  McD blew that pick.

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Zay will end up being a decent receiver, but no where near JuJu in Pittsburgh or Cooper Kupp in LA.  McD blew that pick.

 

 

Nonsense. There's almost always someone better you could have picked. Picks aren't judged as to whether you got the best possible guy in hindsight. They're judged by whether you got good value. Looks like Zay will turn out to be good value at that spot. 

[Ronin]

6 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Zay will end up being a decent receiver, but no where near JuJu in Pittsburgh or Cooper Kupp in LA.  McD blew that pick.

 

No he won't.  He'll always be a depth option.  

 

His predecessor from East Carolina was so much more prolific than he was, better scoring, far more reliable when games were actually still in play or on the line, better overall numbers over four years, not merely in one season as a garbage-time specialist in a spread offense often featuring 5 WRs.  

 

Justin Hardy is that player, he's on Atlanta with Ryan throwing him the ball, a team that until they drafted Ridley hasn't had a reliable #2 while Hardy's been on the team.  

 

Let's face it, schools of that caliber rarely field top players in the NFL.  

[CaptnCoke11]

He’s a number #2 on this team trapped in a #5s body 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

 

 

Yup. It's his second year and he's been thrown to by four different QBs, none of who are very good at this point. He's the best WR on the team and thus gets more focus from the defences. He's still developing and will likely continue to get better.

 

Yup, 52nd among WRs in yardage,  44th in receptions, tied for 26th in TDs. He's a #2 right now, though not one of the better #2s. But again, he's a 2nd year man with issues at QB and OL. He'll almost certainly improve.

[BillyWhiteShows]

3 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

Unfortunately the majority those balls were caught during garbage time

[Thurman#1]

9 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

No he won't.  He'll always be a depth option.  

 

His predecessor from East Carolina was so much more prolific than he was, better scoring, far more reliable when games were actually still in play or on the line, better overall numbers over four years, not merely in one season as a garbage-time specialist in a spread offense often featuring 5 WRs.  

 

Justin Hardy is that player, he's on Atlanta with Ryan throwing him the ball, a team that until they drafted Ridley hasn't had a reliable #2 while Hardy's been on the team.  

 

Let's face it, schools of that caliber rarely field top players in the NFL.  

 

 

The fact that you have to go back to his college days proves how poor your point is. College ceases to matter once you're on an NFL roster. Zay's stats - in the NFL - do show he's a #2.

[MJS]

35 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Zay will end up being a decent receiver, but no where near JuJu in Pittsburgh or Cooper Kupp in LA.  McD blew that pick.

 

Captain hindsight emerges!

[WIDE LEFT]

I question whether Jones is even a 3. He simply cannot separate when faced with man coverage. The Pats played mostly man last week, with Gilmore on Foster and their other DB on Zay. Predictably, Zay did nothing ( until garbage time) Yes he can find a seam or breakdown in zone, but that’s not good enough.When you are that limited as a WR, you better make up for it with great hands and the ability to make tough catches. He does neither, and has dropped more balls recently than he has caught.

Most troubling is his tendency to shrink in the most critical parts of the game. In tight games and big moments he consistently fails to come up with catches that most WR can make routinely. A good guy and hard worker yes. But it takes more than that to produce in the NFL. Over the last month, Jones has virtually disappeared from Bills offense

 

 

[BlueandRed]

Yeah, he is a#2. Literally ? 

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Unfortunately the majority those balls were caught during garbage time

 

 

Receivers can only catch the ball when their QB throws it to them. 

 

The Bills are fifth in the league in percentage of runs per offensive play. They want to run. They throw more when they're behind, that's the kind of team they are.

 

The Bills threw 103 passes in first quarters, 115 in 2nd quarters, 107 in 3rd quarters and 145 in 4th quarters. If you're on the Bills this year and you're a receiver and they throw to you a lot, you're most likely going to have a lot of your catches late in the game.

[MrEpsYtown]

He's not worth the drops. If he doesn't fix that, he will be out of the league. Guys like TO dropped the ball a lot, but you could deal with it becuase he made game breaking a plays. A guy with 50 catches is just not worth it. Also he isn't making any contested catches at all and has made a good amount of catches in garbage time. 

 

I want to trade him the the Chargers for Forrest Lamp...disappointing second round pick for disappointing second round pick. 

[Thurman#1]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

In what world? 

 

There is absolutely nothing special about Zay Jones. He's inconsistent, gets no separation and drops way too many balls. 

 

 

Your observations there are subjective.

 

More to the point, he's a second year guy coming from a small school. He was likely to require time. Turns out he did. He started very slow this year due to the injury but has performed quite a bit better after getting healthy.

 

I didn't claim that he was going to be a #1 or anything. But the stats show he's already producing at a rate that makes him a #2. With poor and very inconsistent QB passing play and not much of a run game to take the pressure off the pass game.The lack of talent on this offence holds all offensive performance down.

 

So the answer to your question is this, Scott ... In what world does Zay look like he'll prove to be good value at that spot? In this world. As his QB play gets better, as he learns and improves, there's a good chance it will happen in this very world. Great value? I didn't say that. 

[Thurman#1]

22 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

I question whether Jones is even a 3. He simply cannot separate when faced with man coverage. The Pats played mostly man last week, with Gilmore on Foster and their other DB on Zay. Predictably, Zay did nothing ( until garbage time) Yes he can find a seam or breakdown in zone, but that’s not good enough.When you are that limited as a WR, you better make up for it with great hands and the ability to make tough catches. He does neither, and has dropped more balls recently than he has caught.

Most troubling is his tendency to shrink in the most critical parts of the game. In tight games and big moments he consistently fails to come up with catches that most WR can make routinely. A good guy and hard worker yes. But it takes more than that to produce in the NFL. Over the last month, Jones has virtually disappeared from Bills offense

 

 

 

 

In the last four games, which are 26.66% of the 15 games we've played, Zay has caught 29.9% of his yardage (167 of 559 yards) and 60% of his TDs (3 of 5). How is that "virtually disappeared from Bills offence"? It's increasing his production.

 

Oh, and I don't know where Gilmore was every play or anything like that. But I do know Stephon was covering Zay on the incompletion in the first drive of the 3rd quarter, the incompletion at 11:00 in the 4th, and the completion at 4:37 in the 4th. 

[JoPar_v2]

Pretty sure Zay was drafted to be a solid #2 receiver? He’s on his way to becoming one. So not sure what the problem is. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Unfortunately the majority those balls were caught during garbage time

 

....and unfortunately with some of our patented blowouts, "garbage time" was the ONLY thing available.............

[Jpsredemption]

He should be fighting for a roster spot next year. That's how he's played.

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

Its a terrible metric, but ok.

 

at some level soooomeone is going to catch passes. Even a historically bad passing offense is going to complete a few hundred passes. That zay has been healthy and a starter makes it hard not to get 40 catches. Frankly, as a healthy starter he should be much higher

Edited December 29, 2018 by NoSaint

[Prickly Pete]

The only conversation I want to have about Zay Jones is "where can we find someone to push him down the depth chart?".

Edited December 29, 2018 by OJ Tom

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense. There's almost always someone better you could have picked. Picks aren't judged as to whether you got the best possible guy in hindsight. They're judged by whether you got good value. Looks like Zay will turn out to be good value at that spot. 

At this point trading up to get Zay Jones when they could have had Juju or Kupp is a disaster.

 

1. Zay isn’t half as good as those guys.

 

2. They traded up to get him..

[BillyWhiteShows]

33 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....and unfortunately with some of our patented blowouts, "garbage time" was the ONLY thing available.............

 

Not really.... there were several tight games and Zay rarely made a play or only had a few catches. 

 

I would also be curious to see how many of those catches came in the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach.  

 

Just trying to provide context 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

Stats are unreliable and misleading, especially in football.

 

The only thing #2 about Zay are his crappy hands, crappy route running, crappy attempts at contested catches, and crappy attempts at getting separation.  

 

 We are in trouble if Zay is still the #2 WR next year.  He is not good enough, and thats where watching the games comes into play. Against Detroit and NE, he was not only ineffective, but he was completely dominated like he didn't belong in the league by his opposing corners.  He cant get off the line, he gets manhandled and pushed off his routes, and is easily taken out of games.  He gets a lot of production in garbage time or on broken plays where its hard for DB's to keep holding coverage while a QB is extending the play and running around.

 

Even in his dubbed "breakout" game, he still only had 4 catches for less than 70 yards.  Yes he had 2 TD's, but he also had multiple drops and failed to make some key plays.  It wasn't exactly a great game despite the 2 TD's, both of which were exceptional plays and throws by Allen.  

 

Bottom line, he doesn't excel at anything.  But when there are few other options, he will compile some stat totals out of lack of other options, doesn't make him a good #2.  I was a defender of his potential, but man seeing him this year has convinced me that we are in trouble if he is our #2 WR week 1 next year.  I dont even want him as a #3 either.  

 

We need to add 3 WRs IMO this offseason,  I would keep Foster and McKenzie and get rid of Zay.  I would try and add 2 vets and 1 rookie and let them all battle for the top 4 spots with Foster and have McKenzie as a WR5 and ST guy and maybe keep Ray Ray as developmental 6th WR or take one later in draft..  There are plenty of quality vets and this is a DEEP WR draft, so if we pass on a WR in round 1, there will still be a good one in round 2 for us to go after. 

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Happy]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

 

Captain hindsight emerges!

 

Probably so.  How many on this board have the player college evals and knowledge that the coaches, GMs, and scouts have on draft day?  Do you?  Doubt it.  Hindsight is pretty much what we have in absence of professional scouting reports, not the stuff that the Mel Kipers and Mike Mayocks of the world put out.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Not really.... there were several tight games and Zay rarely made a play or only had a few catches. 

 

I would also be curious to see how many of those catches came in the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach.  

 

Just trying to provide context 

 

....sure he's a HUGE risk at 2019 cost of $1.081 mil....or we could pay Sammy like numbers ($16 mil) for the same production...oh wait, he's injured AGAIN......and Zay is in great (?) hands with 62 years of combined WR coaching between Robiskie and Culley to bring his arse around, right?......think maybe a TRUE #1 would make a difference along with the speed merchants Foster & McKenzie "around"?....for a million bucks (damn Rockpile Beerman makes MORE), I'd see how the draft/FA pans out as well as what this kid shows in TC and pre-season.......my lowly content contribution...

[hondo in seattle]

5 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

 

I agree he’s not a #1 - but not because of the stats.   Andre Reed wouldn’t have posted good numbers with this offense.

[GG]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The fact that you have to go back to his college days proves how poor your point is. College ceases to matter once you're on an NFL roster. Zay's stats - in the NFL - do show he's a #2.

He's producing #2 stats playing as a #1.   If the Bills had a bonafide WR on the roster, Zays stats would be in the deep depth range.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, GG said:

He's producing #2 stats playing as a #1.   If the Bills had a bonafide WR on the roster, Zays stats would be in the deep depth range.  

 

...uh oh....take cover and don your kevlar vest....I hear footsteps........

[Boca BIlls]

6 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

At 50 receptions, he's at #44 among WRs. That puts him clearly in the #2 WR camp. I think we've seen that he can't cut it when teams play him like a 1, but he should be good as a 2.

He is a #3 at best... his drops are what leaves him out of the discussion for a #2. Receptions are not the only thing.

[billsfan_34]

The numbers show nothing with this dysfunctional offense. Lets shore up the Oline and hope JA is the annointed one- then we can fully assess Mr Jones.

[BillyWhiteShows]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....sure he's a HUGE risk at 2019 cost of $1.081 mil....or we could pay Sammy like numbers ($16 mil) for the same production...oh wait, he's injured AGAIN......and Zay is in great (?) hands with 62 years of combined WR coaching between Robiskie and Culley to bring his arse around, right?......think maybe a TRUE #1 would make a difference along with the speed merchants Foster & McKenzie "around"?....for a million bucks (damn Rockpile Beerman makes MORE), I'd see how the draft/FA pans out as well as what this kid shows in TC and pre-season.......my lowly content contribution...

 

Well there’s is no doubt he has improved a bit since last year.  I also would be fine keeping him on the roster.

 

My only point is that this season his stats don’t really give a good idea of his true contributions this years. While they are decent stats for a #2, I do believe that many of his catches came at the end of the game when defenses were allowing catches in front of them.  I also remember a number of very untimely drops from Zay and can’t remember one game where he really took over like good receivers do.

 

like I said, he has improved but still has a long way to go.  I do agree a better #1 WR would help his production

[Augie]

4 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Zay will end up being a decent receiver, but no where near JuJu in Pittsburgh or Cooper Kupp in LA.  McD blew that pick.

 

Almost Every pick was blown given 20/20 hindsight. Let’s not play that game.