IslandBillsFan Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Hi Friends, Sorry to start a thread without all the details but I was talking in the shout-box and have yet to receive a good answer. In my memory, last week the Bills faced the Lions and had a 4th and 2 at approximately the 12 yard line. If I remember correctly (which is a miracle) the Bills were down 13 to 7. We elected to go for it and ran a play where JA scrambled and eventually ended up short of the first down. Many questions here which have yet to be discussed: 1) For all the folks who say we are not aggressive enough on 4th down situations, here is one we lost. Please explain. 2) One long time poster (sorry I cant remember who) stated that McDermont explained the call was for the development of the team. If that is true... interesting to see Sean McD is more interested in the future, than winning a game. Thoughts Bills fans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sven233 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) Just because a play doesn't work, doesn't mean that the decision to go for it was wrong. Two separate things. Teams leave way too many points on the field because they play scared and don't go for 4th and short as much as they should. Be aggressive. With an huge, elite athlete, at QB, picking up 4th and short will happen more often than not. As we add more talent, the ability to convert 4th and short should turn into a weapon for us. Take advantage of it. Edited December 21, 2018 by sven233 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 With short yardage like that and with how Allen typically is scrambling going for it there must of been really tempting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, sven233 said: Just because a play doesn't work, doesn't mean that the decision to go for it was wrong. Two separate things. Teams leave way too many points on the field because they play scared and don't go for 4th and short as much as they should. Be aggressive. Be aggressive when you have an OL that doesn’t suck and WRs that can get open and catch the ball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsSB2020 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 It was the correct call mathematically. The only thing concerning is if McDermott doesn't coach that way in games that matter. Our win percentage skyrockets if we convert and only slightly ticks up if we make the FG. The odds of getting 2 yards outweigh the cost. Even if you fail, you're still down one score with the Lions pinned deep. I hope McDermott coach's that way ALL THE TIME. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sven233 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, NewEra said: Be aggressive when you have an OL that doesn’t suck and WRs that can get open and catch the ball In the grand scheme of things, a win or loss in that game didn't matter. Also, Allen had been playing well. Couple that with the fact that he has run for almost 500 yards this season, it doesn't really matter what the OL and WRs have been like. They are capable of getting 2 yards. They just didn't on that occasion Fact is, whether you get it or not, it is a 1 score game. It's the right call every time (unless it's really late in the game and a FG makes it a 1 score game instead of a 2 score game). Edited December 21, 2018 by sven233 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfaninChicago Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Similar to this discussion. Everyone loves it when teams go for the win with a 2 point conversion instead of an extra point at the end of regulation. I am in the minority and think it is a dumb move over aggressive move. I would think you have a lot more chances to win in OT then if you have a busted play on a 2 point conversion. It worked for Anthony Lynn but was a bust for Mike Vrable this season so I guess based on the data we have in 2018 it is a split verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I fully support the call. Wins and losses don't matter this season. We are practicing to be a "good team" right now, which will hopefully start paying off next season, so I think McD needs to start "stretching his legs" a little and see how the team responds. In other words, he needs to put Josh Allen, and others, in a position to push the boundaries between good and great, and see what the results are. Just my opinion of course, but I hope I'm right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I wanted us to go for it and I kind of expected us to. I also felt like given the chance, Allen was going to play hero ball and try and run for it. I also felt like every other person in the stadium, including the Lions knew that. It went pretty much exactly how I expected. He’s got to try and be a passer first. All day he seemed to get that until the biggest spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, sven233 said: Just because a play doesn't work, doesn't mean that the decision to go for it was wrong. Two separate things. Teams leave way too many points on the field because they play scared and don't go for 4th and short as much as they should. Be aggressive. With an huge, elite athlete, at QB, picking up 4th and short will happen more often than not. As we add more talent, the ability to convert 4th and short should turn into a weapon for us. Take advantage of it. Not at all a horribly designed and executed play that did not work cannot hide behind “ it might have worked” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I wanted us to go for it and I kind of expected us to. I also felt like given the chance, Allen was going to play hero ball and try and run for it. I also felt like every other person in the stadium, including the Lions knew that. It went pretty much exactly how I expected. He’s got to try and be a passer first. All day he seemed to get that until the biggest spots. You must have missed the game winning TD pass to Foster that was the biggest spot of them all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: You must have missed the game winning TD pass to Foster that was the biggest spot of them all. I saw the first down on a 4th down that sealed the game and the 4th down that they went for and missed. Both runs by Allen. I didn’t say every significant play was a run. I just mean the big time pressure spots (4th down) were runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I saw the first down on a 4th down that sealed the game and the 4th down that they went for and missed. Both runs by Allen. I didn’t say every significant play was a run. I just mean the big time pressure spots (4th down) were runs. The first was a scramble the second was them using Allen to get the inches they needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeskillitMoorman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, IslandBillsFan said: Hi Friends, Sorry to start a thread without all the details but I was talking in the shout-box and have yet to receive a good answer. In my memory, last week the Bills faced the Lions and had a 4th and 2 at approximately the 12 yard line. If I remember correctly (which is a miracle) the Bills were down 13 to 7. We elected to go for it and ran a play where JA scrambled and eventually ended up short of the first down. Many questions here which have yet to be discussed: 1) For all the folks who say we are not aggressive enough on 4th down situations, here is one we lost. Please explain. 2) One long time poster (sorry I cant remember who) stated that McDermont explained the call was for the development of the team. If that is true... interesting to see Sean McD is more interested in the future, than winning a game. Thoughts Bills fans? I have been one of the loudest in calling out McDermott for his extreme conservativeness as a coach and decision maker. That being said...I was a little more encouraged by that call on Sunday. It was 100% the right call. As people here have said, just because it didn't work, that doesn't mean it's the wrong call. I go for that 4th and 2 every single time without any hesitation. Field goals are trash, they're great if you like to be bad or mediocre. I hope the call wasn't just for development in the sense that he wanted to give a young QB an extra big play for the sake of it, but rather he'll lean towards going for it more as he develops trust in the QB. Hard to say because he's been so incredibly conservative here, but I'm hoping that was a step in the right direction. 1 hour ago, Leonhart2017 said: Similar to this discussion. Everyone loves it when teams go for the win with a 2 point conversion instead of an extra point at the end of regulation. I am in the minority and think it is a dumb move over aggressive move. I would think you have a lot more chances to win in OT then if you have a busted play on a 2 point conversion. It worked for Anthony Lynn but was a bust for Mike Vrable this season so I guess based on the data we have in 2018 it is a split verdict. I love going for 2 in those spots if your QB is your best, or at least one of your best players. If you have a really good offense, I'd take that shot to win the game over the possibility that your best don't even touch the ball in OT. I'd have to go back to see the play the Titans ran, I don't like their QB so I don't know if I would have been as confident with that one. I know the Colts lost a game like that as well...but I would have no regrets about putting the game on Andrew Luck's shoulders. Sometimes the best decisions don't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I saw the first down on a 4th down that sealed the game and the 4th down that they went for and missed. Both runs by Allen. I didn’t say every significant play was a run. I just mean the big time pressure spots (4th down) were runs. 4th and and inch should be a run on a QB sneak. The 4th and 2 play wasn't a run until there was nothing in the passing game with the play breaking down. The 4th and 2 wasn't much in the end as there was plenty of game left to be played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Johnson Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, BillsSB2020 said: It was the correct call mathematically. The only thing concerning is if McDermott doesn't coach that way in games that matter. Our win percentage skyrockets if we convert and only slightly ticks up if we make the FG. The odds of getting 2 yards outweigh the cost. Even if you fail, you're still down one score with the Lions pinned deep. I hope McDermott coach's that way ALL THE TIME. Someone who gets it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Liked the decision, didn't like the play call. Loved the decision to go for the 4th down on final drive, Allen looks automatic in 4th & 1 or less. People gotta remember, this is only McDs 2nd year as an NFL HC , he's learning too and finding his groove, I'm encouraged by the aggressiveness last gm. He has been too conservative at times but I think we'll continue to see more aggressiveness as he gains confidence in Allen and this young offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I said kick the FG at the time. Down 13-7, you make it 13-10 and you can still pin the Lions at the 20 with the ensuing kick-off. Then if the Lions kick a FG on the next drive, it's still just a one-possession game. I think there are two ways of approaching it. Playing the odds or playing the points. What I described above is playing the points. Going for it on 4th down is playing the odds. The biggest problem I have with it is the play call. Everyone is expecting Allen to run it there. The Lions D-line just stayed in their spots, so that he had nowhere to go. You gotta call something a little more creative in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said: It was the correct call mathematically. The only thing concerning is if McDermott doesn't coach that way in games that matter. Our win percentage skyrockets if we convert and only slightly ticks up if we make the FG. The odds of getting 2 yards outweigh the cost. Even if you fail, you're still down one score with the Lions pinned deep. I hope McDermott coach's that way ALL THE TIME. I am sure he will when he has a little more confidence in his offense (WHen you are still playing for the marbles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, IslandBillsFan said: Hi Friends, Sorry to start a thread without all the details but I was talking in the shout-box and have yet to receive a good answer. In my memory, last week the Bills faced the Lions and had a 4th and 2 at approximately the 12 yard line. If I remember correctly (which is a miracle) the Bills were down 13 to 7. We elected to go for it and ran a play where JA scrambled and eventually ended up short of the first down. Many questions here which have yet to be discussed: 1) For all the folks who say we are not aggressive enough on 4th down situations, here is one we lost. Please explain. 2) One long time poster (sorry I cant remember who) stated that McDermont explained the call was for the development of the team. If that is true... interesting to see Sean McD is more interested in the future, than winning a game. Thoughts Bills fans? So many things wrong with this post, it’s hard to know where to start. 2 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said: It was the correct call mathematically. The only thing concerning is if McDermott doesn't coach that way in games that matter. Our win percentage skyrockets if we convert and only slightly ticks up if we make the FG. The odds of getting 2 yards outweigh the cost. Even if you fail, you're still down one score with the Lions pinned deep. I hope McDermott coach's that way ALL THE TIME. Thank you. The key here is that a FG accomplishes next to nothing in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 My opinion is that there is no use in overanalyzing one play. Coaches have to make these decisions in seconds, and they are already on to the next play before it is even executed. Fans get hung up on the ins and outs and why's and could haves/ should haves... These are split second decions that are made. You guess right on a play? Great, on to the next one. You guess wrong? Darn, on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 My view is you take the points. For a normally conservative coach this really puzzled me. There was plenty of time to score more points take what you can get now and go back and get more later. That nearly cost the Bills the W if Prater makes that FG its a possible loss. Stick to what you know coach....like Marv used to say: when you start listening to the fans you will soon be sitting with them. Wise words from a wise man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 There are two schools of thought here: the faux-analytics school of thought and the correct school of thought. You always, 100% of the time, take the points. ESPECIALLY if your defense has had the other team bottled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Beard Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Analytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyK Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 How about punting from the Lions 36 yard line? Which went into the end-zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 43 minutes ago, JohnnyK said: How about punting from the Lions 36 yard line? Which went into the end-zone. idk, injured kicker, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 hours ago, row_33 said: Not at all a horribly designed and executed play that did not work cannot hide behind “ it might have worked” Nor can it signal that going for it is a bad choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 In college football, Coaches are going for it on 4th and short just about everytime and ususally with good success. I see this slowly becoming the trend in NFL. Its a high percentage play. you just have to move the ball a yard or 2. More times than not you are going to convert these which can lead to more points. If you have a good D like the Bills do, why not go for it more? More plays for Josh Allen is a ++++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I agreed with going for it in 4th down but the fact is the Bills blew it with an absolute stupid 3rd down call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 hours ago, Warcodered said: The first was a scramble the second was them using Allen to get the inches they needed. I know what the plays were. I’m just saying, if you watch..way to often on 3rd or 4th down if Allen’s first guy isn’t there he panics and wants to try and run for it. He is to quick to put it on himself. That’s what a competitor does, I like the fire. But he’s got to stay in there and throw sometimes. I want him to keep the mobility in his game. I think that’s what could make him good. I just also want him to feel like he can throw for conversions and be more patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyWhiteShows Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I loved the call... at this point McDermott should go for it on 4th down anytime they are in FG range. It will give him a better chance to see what players do in those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I know what the plays were. I’m just saying, if you watch..way to often on 3rd or 4th down if Allen’s first guy isn’t there he panics and wants to try and run for it. He is to quick to put it on himself. That’s what a competitor does, I like the fire. But he’s got to stay in there and throw sometimes. I want him to keep the mobility in his game. I think that’s what could make him good. I just also want him to feel like he can throw for conversions and be more patient. Get him WRs he can trust and that will actually catch the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 32 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I know what the plays were. I’m just saying, if you watch..way to often on 3rd or 4th down if Allen’s first guy isn’t there he panics and wants to try and run for it. He is to quick to put it on himself. That’s what a competitor does, I like the fire. But he’s got to stay in there and throw sometimes. I want him to keep the mobility in his game. I think that’s what could make him good. I just also want him to feel like he can throw for conversions and be more patient. Fair enough. I just think some are confused on why you would bring up the designed run play to seal the game as an example of him taking it upon himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 34 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said: I loved the call... at this point McDermott should go for it on 4th down anytime they are in FG range. It will give him a better chance to see what players do in those situations. I agree, but at the same time, going for it also gives them the best chance to win. A classic win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 [This is an automated response] As a courtesy to the other board members, please use more descriptive topic titles. A better title will help the community find information faster and make your topic more likely to be read. The topic starter can edit the topic title line to make it more appropriate. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hemma Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Tough to move the ball and they'd kept Allen bottled up, so I was thinking they'd take the 3. Guys missing blocks makes it tough to be aggressive too often. Oh well ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IslandBillsFan Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 Interesting to see both sides of the argument here. Sorry if my original post was a little cryptic, I had a couple cocktails in me. To the posters who said whether the play worked is irrelevant, I agree. In general, I agree Bills play calling has been too conservative. However in that scenario, I thought the call was wrong. Take the points. We have a bad offense. I figured with a half to play I would've felt more comfortable being down 3 then potentially still being down 6. Thanks for all the replies! BD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 hours ago, Leonhart2017 said: Similar to this discussion. Everyone loves it when teams go for the win with a 2 point conversion instead of an extra point at the end of regulation. I am in the minority and think it is a dumb move over aggressive move. I would think you have a lot more chances to win in OT then if you have a busted play on a 2 point conversion. It worked for Anthony Lynn but was a bust for Mike Vrable this season so I guess based on the data we have in 2018 it is a split verdict. Completely depends on the situation. Lynn was facing a KC team that scores a lot of points. The chargers have a great QB and weapons around him, why let it go to overtime when you have a 50/50 chance to end the game in your favor right there. As for Vrable, to throw the ball when you have Henry and a bulldozing offensive line is just mind-boggling. Similar call to letting Russell Wilson toss the rock at the 1 yard line instead of giving it to Lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Why not go for it there? And Allen's development is WAYYYYYYYY more important than winning one game, that was a joke right? If that regime wants to be successful, Allen's development is priority number 1 and it's not even close. Beane said it himself, you can't just trot all your young guys out there to start the season or it will be a complete mess. Despite it starting poorly, this team has been fairly competitive losing a couple games by just a few points. With so many young players, you can't just throw everything at them all at once. You have to add things in a little bit at a time. Many fans that have screamed for McDermott to be more aggressive should be happy about that call. It didn't work but you have to practice it in a live game where it actually matters. Allen is now to the point where the staff trusts him to make a play. He has very little help which makes McDermott's decision very hard sometimes. I'm sure there are many times where he's wanted to go for it but hasn't because the offense just wasn't good enough to do so yet. You can be aggressive with a really good offense but it's a very fine line. You could just as easily just give away a ton of points as well. I expect with a more talented offense next year that they will continue to add more aggressive calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlottebillsfan2 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 HELLO, You play to win the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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