What's a common thread among recent Allen analyses?

[eball]

Sorry for starting another "Allen progress" thread but I think a lot gets lost in the individual threads that turn back into draft debates.  I've been reading the various film reviews of Allen's play after every game from The Athletic -- Joe Licata does one each week w/ Matt Fairburn, and then Cover1 does his as well.  I also look at Joe B's write-ups.  It has been fascinating to read the articles and see how things have progressed.  This week a common thread emerged -- Allen is progressing at a pretty rapid rate, even from game to game.  I think we heard this from McD as well this week -- he said Josh is a different QB from just three weeks ago in Miami (when he was the best player on the field).

 

The "stat sheet" fans and critics who get caught up in completion percentages, yardage totals, and passer ratings at this point in Allen's career aren't really giving themselves a chance to see what is happening.  I look back to the guy who played vs. the Chargers in W2 or Packers in W4, and I see a completely different QB now.  Even in the Minnesota game, Allen primarily made plays with his legs and the defense put the Bills up big early with turnovers.

 

Against Detroit Allen stood in the pocket, made his reads, and delivered darts.  He threw short passes, touch passes, and long passes.  Yes, I know they only scored 14 points but Allen -- at least to me -- looked like a composed, competent NFL QB.  This week Bill Belichick is doing his typical thing, talking up the opponent -- but I think he legitimately believes it.  For the last several years it was easy for the Pats*** -- you keep Tyrod in the pocket and make him beat you as a passer.  He couldn't do it.  Now the Bills appear to have a guy who can and BB knows it.

 

I believe the Bills have a real shot this week.  Their defense played Brady* well in the first meeting, and their offense looks nothing like that train wreck.  I only hope ST doesn't screw it up.

[ProcessTruster]

Could be the week.   Although not having Taron Johnson and Matt Milano will hurt quite a bit against the short passing game of the Pats.   I can see Brady carving them up with 5-10 yard passes.   No RBs will hurt as well.   Not sure they can win this one on Allen shoulders alone.   But they will compete.  Trust the Process.   McBeanes know what they want to do to build a contending roster and are about halfway through doing it, in my estimation. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by ProcessTruster

[Billsfan1972]

And the 14 points were aided in large part by two big PI's (43 & 23 yards).  

 

I really like Allen and defend him, but these receivers, the lack or separation, coupled with the terrible play calling and playing for 17-14 games doesn't help the development of the O.  Forecast Sunday is perfect to work on Allen and the offense.  

 

Would be nice to see 28 points and playing for 4 quarters.

[billsredneck1]

the thing that worries me is that if shady plays (and he's gonna), that they feel obligated to feed him the ball....which means a lot of short gains on 1st and 2nd downs,

followed by 3rd and long blitzes.  ugggh......which also means allen running way too much.  it would be a nightmare for him to get hurt now. 

 

edit: i love shady but it seems like when he is in the offense is predictable, ineffective, unimaginative and boring.  expect to see a ton of 3 and outs

and josh running for his life and playing hero ball.   i hope i'm wrong.

Edited December 20, 2018 by billsredneck1

[papazoid]

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

[PrimeTime101]

5 minutes ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

so let me get this straight, you have to be a top 10 QB to be a franchise QB? and are you evaluating his numbers compared to others in total yards or just yards in the air?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

32 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

the thing that worries me is that if shady plays (and he's gonna), that they feel obligated to feed him the ball....which means a lot of short gains on 1st and 2nd downs,

followed by 3rd and long blitzes.  ugggh......which also means allen running way too much.  it would be a nightmare for him to get hurt now. 

 

edit: i love shady but it seems like when he is in the offense is predictable, ineffective, unimaginative and boring.  expect to see a ton of 3 and outs

and josh running for his life and playing hero ball.   i hope i'm wrong.

the  obligation I see is to feed the ball to a RB if its a run play or a screen or check down to the #1 RB.

 

it's not like Shady is in  reach a milestone.  otherwise I might fully agree. 

[H2o]

It's going to be interesting to see what BB wants to take away. More than likely it will be a scheme that limits JA's scrambling. Almost certainly someone will be spying Allen. But who will it be, a Safety or a LB? That will determine what level of the field has space. Can Allen read this and hit the open man? I think this game, because of how BB schemes, will tell us the most about how far JA has progressed imo. 

[mjt328]

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense.  The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield.  This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering.

 

Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play.  But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help.  Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down.  Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes.

 

When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into.  It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future. 

 

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of the things I notice about Josh Allen's development (especially compared to other rookie QBs) is the lack of check-down and short passes in our offense.  The vast majority of his throws are 10-15+ yards downfield.  This is a significant factor in his "accuracy and completion percentage problems" which Allen's detractors are not considering.

 

Part of this may be due to Allen having a "gunslinger mentality" and always going for the big play.  But I also notice that because of the offensive line problems, our RBs and TEs are often forced to stay and provide extra blocking help.  Which means they can't slip out for a quick check-down.  Leaving most of Allen's options on farther downfield routes.

 

When you factor in the ridiculously poor blocking, the lack of easy throws available, the multitude of dropped passes by his receivers and the huge learning curve in going from Wyoming to the NFL - an observer can't help but realize the trial-by-fire that Allen has been dropped into.  It's hard to imagine him playing in a tougher situation at any point in the future. 

 

 

On some level we simply don’t have the skill to churn out 15 play drives for points and need to get chunk yardage to score. Part of that is the rest of the team but I suspect part of that is Josh not being the accurate touch and timing short game passer (yet?)

[Figster]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

Myself personally, Allens pocket awareness and throwing mechanics have continued to improve in my humble opinion.  It would not surprise me to see Josh Allens accuracy problems become a thing of the past as Buffalo upgrades the supporting cast around him.

 

The sky really is the limit with this kid IMO.

[mjt328]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

On some level we simply don’t have the skill to churn out 15 play drives for points and need to get chunk yardage to score. Part of that is the rest of the team but I suspect part of that is Josh not being the accurate touch and timing short game passer (yet?)

 

I'm not really talking about short "timing" throws like slants, screens, curls and picks. 

I'm talking more about the easy check-downs, like a dump-off to the running back when the initial downfield reads are covered.

 

You know... the Trent Edwards/EJ Manual type throws don't require a ton of skill or accuracy.

 

Those are the types of passes that guys like Sam Darnold are living off right now.  Watch a Jets game, and check-down throws are easily accounting for at least 75-80% of his completions.  But watch a Bills game, and you aren't seeing the check-downs from Allen at all.  His only short throws are designed screens and quick-hitters behind the line of scrimmage (usually to McKenzie).

 

[Charles Romes]

Allen has been carrying the receivers, the Oline and Dabol IMO.  

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 Now the Bills appear to have a guy who can and BB knows it.

 

I believe the Bills have a real shot this week.  Their defense played Brady* well in the first meeting, and their offense looks nothing like that train wreck.

 

 

Yeah, good luck with all of that.

 

Yes, he's progressing. And that's great.

 

But the team he's beaten from the pocket scored 13 points due to missing a field goal and an extra point.

 

With luck in a year or two all of this excitement will be warranted.

 

 

[BillyWhiteShows]

18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, good luck with all of that.

 

Yes, he's progressing. And that's great.

 

But the team he's beaten from the pocket scored 13 points due to missing a field goal and an extra point.

 

With luck in a year or two all of this excitement will be warranted.

 

 

 

You can put qualifiers on any victory in the NFL these days.  That’s like saying New England only scored 10 points bs Pittsburgh because Brady was injured

[One Buffalo]

 

[eball]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

Did you think Josh was inaccurate last week?  Did you see him take a lot of hits?  I guess I don't understand your prediction -- we truly don't know what the future holds, but based upon what appears to be rapid progression I find it somewhat illogical to have a pessimistic viewpoint about Allen's ceiling.  I'll pretty much guarantee the Bills won't be taking a QB in the 1st or 2nd round next year.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

It's going to be interesting to see what BB wants to take away. More than likely it will be a scheme that limits JA's scrambling. Almost certainly someone will be spying Allen. But who will it be, a Safety or a LB? That will determine what level of the field has space. Can Allen read this and hit the open man? I think this game, because of how BB schemes, will tell us the most about how far JA has progressed imo. 

They'll do exactly what Patricia did. Spy plus pinch the middle. If he has a clean pocket and some of our worthless wr's can get any separation,  than he should have a decent day. And as the OP said I'm very happy with Josh's progress this season. 

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

I think the accuracy "issues," are becoming a lazy narrative (not by you - by the media).  Anyone who's watched all of Allen's starts can't possibly say that his accuracy hasn't improved weekly.

 

I agree that accuracy was a legitimate concern at draft time and early in the season.

 

However, as the season has progressed, what I'm learning is that many of the "bad passes," have not been bad passes at all.  Sure - he's thrown some.  All QBs do.  But I don't consider it worrisome or problematic at this point.

 

He needs better receivers.  He's making the necessary improvements and no one else on the offense seems to be doing the same with any consistency.

[PaattMaann]

9 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I think the accuracy "issues," are becoming a lazy narrative (not by you - by the media).  Anyone who's watched all of Allen's starts can't possibly say that his accuracy hasn't improved weekly.

 

I agree that accuracy was a legitimate concern at draft time and early in the season.

 

However, as the season has progressed, what I'm learning is that many of the "bad passes," have not been bad passes at all.  Sure - he's thrown some.  All QBs do.  But I don't consider it worrisome or problematic at this point.

 

He needs better receivers.  He's making the necessary improvements and no one else on the offense seems to be doing the same with any consistency.

 

100 percent Gug

 

Baffles me anyone can actually watch Josh play and think he is plagued by these accuracy issues lol...9 starts in, from a rookie who everyone saw as a huge project, and he is already carrying a worthless offense to victorys...crazy

[FeelingOnYouboty]

I know QB development is not linear but I'm going to be so depressed if he takes a step back v NE. I'm really ready for him to break out. I want everything to go his way. Him taking care of the ball, teammates not dropping passes and no penalties negating his big plays.

[Thurman#1]

11 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

You can put qualifiers on any victory in the NFL these days.  That’s like saying New England only scored 10 points bs Pittsburgh because Brady was injured

 

 

How come you didn't mind when he spun the Detroit game positively, saying in that game he thought Josh looked like a QB who could beat people from the pocket?

 

But then have big problems with me when I "qualify" things? Oh, yeah, things that are good about the Bills are OK, but things that aren't entirely positive must be attacked as having qualifiers. 

 

And Belichick feasts on rookie QBs.

 

 

 

[without a drought]

This one is so much better than all the others.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

This seems like conventional thinking that Allen's on field performance to date has rendered obsolete.  And on a team with as many needs on the offensive side of the ball to waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on another QB IMO would be football malpractice. 

58 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

I know QB development is not linear but I'm going to be so depressed if he takes a step back v NE. I'm really ready for him to break out. I want everything to go his way. Him taking care of the ball, teammates not dropping passes and no penalties negating his big plays.

 

I don't see Allen having a passing game breakout Sunday with this current group of skill players.  If the Pats take away Allen's runs and Fosters receptions what's left?  A conventional running game in which the backs are either practice squad players or injury hobbled vets?  Or TE play that could be shut down by dropping your nose tackle into coverage (ok this is a an exaggeration but you get the point)  or a stable of WR's whose distinguishing characteristics are not getting open, not making tough catches and dropping passes?  Even a solid contributor like McKenzie may be playing hurt.

 

And on the other side you have a NE team playing at home and desperate for a win.  Bottom line is I fully expect Allen to take a step back on Sunday.  We'll have to wait until next year and the revamping of the offense for Allen to have a breakout passing game and to beat the Pats.

 

I hope I'm wrong though because it would be one hell of a Christmas present to beat the Pats on Sunday. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, H2o said:

It's going to be interesting to see what BB wants to take away. More than likely it will be a scheme that limits JA's scrambling. Almost certainly someone will be spying Allen. But who will it be, a Safety or a LB? That will determine what level of the field has space. Can Allen read this and hit the open man? I think this game, because of how BB schemes, will tell us the most about how far JA has progressed imo. 

I suspect he'll try to take away Allen's runs and his intermediate to deep passes to Foster.  Achieving both things is very doable IMO.  Now if Zay Jones can hang onto the ball and Clay starts thinking about how big his contract will be next year on another team they might both have big games for the Bills.

 

In some ways Dabold is more on trial here then Allen.  I've seen enough to be very confident that no matter what happens over the next 2 weeks Allen is way ahead of schedule and has demonstrated that with further development he can be our franchise QB.  It will be interesting to see what Dabold tries to do on the road against a team being coached by one of the true defensive geniuses.  A good performance by Allen & the offense may reflect even better on Dabold then Allen. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

If you see him play, you appreciate his upside.  If you simply read the stats, you're doing yourself a big disservice.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

the thing that worries me is that if shady plays (and he's gonna), that they feel obligated to feed him the ball....which means a lot of short gains on 1st and 2nd downs,

followed by 3rd and long blitzes.  ugggh......which also means allen running way too much.  it would be a nightmare for him to get hurt now. 

 

edit: i love shady but it seems like when he is in the offense is predictable, ineffective, unimaginative and boring.  expect to see a ton of 3 and outs

and josh running for his life and playing hero ball.   i hope i'm wrong.

Why would they feel obligated to feed him the ball noe when they haven’t fed him the ball all year minus the jets game

[Rubes]

Allen played pretty well -- at home against a sub-.500 team with a ton of injuries.

 

On the road, in the nightmare that is Foxboro, with a low-talent offense, against Belichick and Brady who are trying to avoid a 3-game losing streak?

 

I won't be too upset if Allen ***** the bed, like nearly every rookie QB seems to do there. He'll have his ups and downs, I'm just looking for more ups than downs. If he puts together a solid game I'll be overjoyed.

 

[PIZ]

5 hours ago, papazoid said:

I think his rapid progress has and will be between his ears.....as he learns to read coverages, protect the ball and reduce his alarming turnover rate.

 

his rocket arm and incredible legs will take him far......his accuracy is what will hold him back.

 

I view him as a solid starter (in the 10-20 rated area). can't see him reaching "franchise" level (Top 10).

 

I would  use high draft capital (1st or 2nd round) on another QB. injury is all to common for QB's in this league, especially one who runs as much as josh.

 

I've been thinking Trace McSorley would be a good backup QB.  He's smart, fits the process guy mentality, and is a good running QB who can also throw.

 

 

Trace McSorley 2018 stats:

 

passing:  2,284 yds.....16 tds....6 int

 

rushing:  723 yds.....4.8 yd/attempt....11 tds.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

I was initially really against playing Josh Allen this year......saw a huge upside kid but totally raw that really needed a year holding the clipboard

 

but now I look at it and the progression of this year was exactly what Josh needed...even without the supporting cast (which he did not have the injury though)

 

You could look at pre season and know this was going to be a down year for the team.....but you then looked to the offseason ahead and cannot hope but get excited....now you look at Josh Allen's progression and the offseason ahead and you have legit hope for the future.

 

Rumble young man rumble.

[Alphadawg7]

Allen has clearly made significant progress this year, he’s not close to the same player he was early in the season.  

 

Anyone who argues against this either is just trying to push their original negative opinion, only reads stats or has no idea what they are watching on Sundays.  

 

Bottom line is that he is not a finished product obviously, so it’s totally fair to not be convinced and still have doubts, but it’s complete nonsense to say he has not been making significant and measurable progress this year towards getting there.  

Edited December 20, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Allen has clearly made significant progress this year, he’s not close to the same player he was early in the season.  

 

Anyone who argues against this either is just trying to push their original negative opinion,

only reads stats or has no idea what they are watching on Sundays.  

 

Bottom line is that he is not a finished product obviously, so it’s totally fair to not be convinced and still have doubts, but it’s complete nonsense to say he has not been making significant and measurable progress this year towards getting there.  

I hear words like "advanced passing concepts" and get all excited!

[longtimebillsfan]

6 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And the 14 points were aided in large part by two big PI's (43 & 23 yards).  

 

I really like Allen and defend him, but these receivers, the lack or separation, coupled with the terrible play calling and playing for 17-14 games doesn't help the development of the O.  Forecast Sunday is perfect to work on Allen and the offense.  

 

Would be nice to see 28 points and playing for 4 quarters.

I hope Bills fans don't get too down on Allen this week.  Belichick is smart enough to make it tough on a rookie qb.  This will be a tough test for Allen.  I expect to see him struggle in this game , maybe even a few ints.  It will be fun to see what he can do against the Patriots. 

[NickelCity]

5 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Part of that is the rest of the team but I suspect part of that is Josh not being the accurate touch and timing short game passer (yet?)

 

I think he was 8/10 to open the Lions game using short/underneath routes. 

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, NickelCity said:

 

I think he was 8/10 to open the Lions game using short/underneath routes. 

 

Awfully small sample size, eh? Encouraging but would you argue he’s a seasoned guy in that regard already or that it’s a point of growth that he’s shown flashes of?

[NickelCity]

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Awfully small sample size, eh? Encouraging but would you argue he’s a seasoned guy in that regard already or that it’s a point of growth that he’s shown flashes of?

 

The entire debate surrounding Allen is a small sample size. From what I've seen, this was the first time that these routes were repeatedly available to him, and he used them well.

I've seen him overlook past these routes here and there in the past, but they were never a point of focus (from Daboll) until the beginning of this game (iirc). 

Edited December 20, 2018 by NickelCity

[John from Riverside]

Just now, NoSaint said:

 

Awfully small sample size, eh? Encouraging but would you argue he’s a seasoned guy in that regard already or that it’s a point of growth that he’s shown flashes of?

But is that really not the whole point?

 

Narrative "Josh cant throw short routes"

 

Then

 

He goes out and throws short routes in a game

 

The point being......the narrative's on Josh Allen are WRONG.......its a unique situation......he is improving by the game (and by no means a finished product which is what makes it so exciting)

 

 

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

But is that really not the whole point?

 

Narrative "Josh cant throw short routes"

 

Then

 

He goes out and throws short routes in a game

 

The point being......the narrative's on Josh Allen are WRONG.......its a unique situation......he is improving by the game (and by no means a finished product which is what makes it so exciting)

 

 

 

The point is we jump on any glimmer of shine as striking gold. Maybe it is, often it’s not. Come on John, you said we had a good group of wrs this year based on those glimmers. 

 

That hes done it is nice- but it’s still a long way to go. One would hope that our top 10 qb pick could physically throw short routes sometimes, it’s the week in and week out in meaningful games that he will have to prove. It’s not insulting to say he’s on track but still a ways to the finish line. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by NoSaint

[John from Riverside]

Just now, NoSaint said:

 

The point is we jump on any glimmer of shine as striking gold. Maybe it is, often it’s not. Come on John, you said we had a good group of wrs this year based on those glimmers. 

 

That hes done it is nice- but it’s still a long way to go. It’s not insulting to say he’s on track but still a ways to the finish line. 

I did NOT say we had a group of good WR......I said we found some possible diamonds in the trash bin.

 

Big difference there

[NoSaint]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

I did NOT say we had a group of good WR......I said we found some possible diamonds in the trash bin.

 

Big difference there

 

Go back to the offseason John, you were pretty darn optimistic on the group. We’ve done this before, we don’t have to do it again.