Mike Tanier - The Decline of Tom Brady, Part XIV: This Time It's Really Happening

[dorquemada]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I'm sorry, but I've been fooled too many times.  I want to believe it.  I think I believe it.  But I won't really believe it until I see it.

 

Yeop.  Decline has been descending on the Patriots for 10 years but somehow keeps landing on the Bills

[Chicken Boo]

17 touchdowns

7 interceptions

4 fumbles lost

 

Not great.

[thebandit27]

29 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I wouldn’t sign that puss bag if he offered to play here for free. Gronk is dead to me as a player. ZERO respect.

 

I'm not a big fan either, but I still think it could happen

 

28 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And they lost 3 games and beaten the Packers, Chiefs, and Bears.

 

Indeed...fortunately, they have a talented stable of running backs, some underrated OLmen, and perhaps the best OL coach the game has seen in the last 30 years...which is why against the Packers, Chiefs, and Bears they were able to rush for 123, 173, and 108 yards and score a total of 6 rushing TDs versus 5 passing (with 2 STs TDs in there as well).

 

They're able to win when they can run; they've lost 3 games, and in those games their rushing totals were 89 (Jax), 87 (Det), and 40 yards (Ten).  Their lowest rushing output in a win was 79 yards against Buffalo, and they generated only 18 points on offense in a game that they'd have lost to any competent offensive team.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE's offense.

[Jerome007]

51 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Brady suspended, playng Jacoby Brisset,  and how did the rest of their season end up, winning a Super bowl

So? How does it change that it was a meaningful game? You think Bellichick didn't care about losing to a division rival on the 4th game of the year?

[RoyBatty is alive]

7 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

So? How does it change that it was a meaningful game? You think Bellichick didn't care about losing to a division rival on the 4th game of the year?

Division rival, well in theory.  We were 1-2, they were  3- 0.  After our game they get back  a refreshed Brady,  certainly he wanted to win but doubt he lost sleep losing with a 3rd string Qb.

Edited November 15, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive

[C.Biscuit97]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm not a big fan either, but I still think it could happen

 

 

Indeed...fortunately, they have a talented stable of running backs, some underrated OLmen, and perhaps the best OL coach the game has seen in the last 30 years...which is why against the Packers, Chiefs, and Bears they were able to rush for 123, 173, and 108 yards and score a total of 6 rushing TDs versus 5 passing (with 2 STs TDs in there as well).

 

They're able to win when they can run; they've lost 3 games, and in those games their rushing totals were 89 (Jax), 87 (Det), and 40 yards (Ten).  Their lowest rushing output in a win was 79 yards against Buffalo, and they generated only 18 points on offense in a game that they'd have lost to any competent offensive team.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE's offense.

But isn’t that cause and effect?  You generally rush for more yards when you’re winning.  The Bills have a very good defense but it is skewed because in the 2nd half of games they are getting blown out in, teams aren’t as aggressive.  

 

Obviously balance helps but Brady has averaged over 300 yards passing/ game and has 8 tds and 2 ints in 4 games against pretty good teams (KC,GB, Hou, Chi).

 

i hate the Pats and Brady isn’t the best qb in the nfl.  But this is such a lazy narrative (the author) and gets repeated every year.  One day, I hope we can talk about the decline of the 7-3 Bills.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But isn’t that cause and effect?  You generally rush for more yards when you’re winning.  The Bills have a very good defense but it is skewed because in the 2nd half of games they are getting blown out in, teams aren’t as aggressive.  

 

Obviously balance helps but Brady has averaged over 300 yards passing/ game and has 8 tds and 2 ints in 4 games against pretty good teams (KC,GB, Hou, Chi).

 

i hate the Pats and Brady isn’t the best qb in the nfl.  But this is such a lazy narrative (the author) and gets repeated every year.  One day, I hope we can talk about the decline of the 7-3 Bills.

 

Only if you're purely looking at the box scores.  Literally everything about the 2018 Patriots is geared toward a run-based offense.

 

They got rid of Brandin Cooks, let Amendola walk, tried to trade Gronk, let their best pass blocker leave in FA and traded for the biggest offensive tackle in football, drafted a guard in the 1st round, drafted a RB in the first round, and signed another RB in free agency.  Brady's No. 1 target in the passing game this year has been...a RB.

 

Under Belichick, NE has always been a take-the-easiest-path-to-victory team on offense.  If they can run to win, that's what they're going to do...this year has been different; they have to run to win.  The eye test shows it, the numbers show it, and--more obviously--everything they've done before and during the season shows it.

 

If you disagree and believe that this is still a Tom Brady-based offense, fine, I'm open to hearing that case.  I know you wouldn't be saying so if you didn't believe it and have a reason for believing it.

 

The narrative of the article posted in the OP, however, isn't lazy or inaccurate.  Brady is in clear decline; that doesn't mean that (a) he's done, (b) the team won't still find a way to win the majority of their games, or (c) he can't still be effective.

Edited November 15, 2018 by thebandit27

[Augie]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I wouldn’t sign that puss bag if he offered to play here for free. Gronk is dead to me as a player. ZERO respect.

 

If he was Gronk in his prime, I might just work on getting over it, but he’s shot. 

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

If he was Gronk in his prime, I might just work on getting over it, but he’s shot. 

In his prime but still having committed his gutless act on Tre White? 

 

Nope. Not for me. I'd have to stand on the principle of the matter. Still wouldn't want him anywhere near my favorite team. 

[RocCityRoller]

time is undefated

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

In his prime but still having committed his gutless act on Tre White? 

 

Nope. Not for me. I'd have to stand on the principle of the matter. Still wouldn't want him anywhere near my favorite team. 

 

I’d hate to forever be judged by my worst moment, but maybe that’s just me. I don’t know who he really is. I’m fully aware of what a dirty, gutless act it was, I’m not discounting that at all. 

[K-9]

14 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I’d hate to forever be judged by my worst moment, but maybe that’s just me. I don’t know who he really is. I’m fully aware of what a dirty, gutless act it was, I’m not discounting that at all. 

More than a fair point and I'd probably get to the point of forgiveness eventually. The length of time it takes is probably proportional to the level of egregiousness of the act and that douche nozzle went way across the line. 

[CommonCents]

53 minutes ago, K-9 said:

In his prime but still having committed his gutless act on Tre White? 

 

Nope. Not for me. I'd have to stand on the principle of the matter. Still wouldn't want him anywhere near my favorite team. 

FWIW Breer said that the retirement word is circling around in the Gronk camp. When asked how much he trusted his source, he double down and said “it’s someone who would know”

 

Probably one of his family members. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And they lost 3 games and beaten the Packers, Chiefs, and Bears.

I have said this is the beginning of the end for Brady, and if he plays next year he will likely not be good at all. HOWEVER, I never said he was done right now (or earlier this season).  He used to be a great/elite QB...now he is just above average to good.  A decent team with an above average-to-good QB can certainly beat an average Packers team, a close game against the Bears (in a game the bears actually played better in..thank special teams, not brady, for that win).  A home win against the cheifs? Well, that is what you get when you still have a good-but-not-great QB who still has the OCCASIONAL ability to pull out 1 or 2 great games.

[Bing Bong]

He's turned noodle arm. I can finally see it. Peyton showed noodle arm halfway through the season after he broke the passing yards record and won MVP and got his *** kicked by the Seahawks secondary in the SB, still got by the year after but the eye test on TV showed noodle arm by week 8 and after. Then he went full noodle the next season (while winning the SB lol).

 

Brady's halfway through the exact same 3 year trajectory I bet *no jinx* but with no SB *no jinx*

 

I see the noodle.

Edited November 15, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[Luka]

18 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

And in the 80 and 90s his scrawny a$$ would have never made through a whole season.  Do guys realize how much the modern offensive numbers are corrupted by these rule changes.  These scores and offensive greatness are fabricated with protections that make it so you cant fart near an offensive skill position without giving the offense a big chunk of yardage and a fresh set of downs.  The Bills, Cowboys, 49ers, Giants of the late 80s and early 90s would steamroll any Brady team under the rules of their time.  I couldnt image what Brady would do when LT or Steve Atwater laid the wood on him.  Hed retire at halftime I imagine.

 

I get it that young guys like OJ Tom (and Im guessing The eggman is a younger guy as well) dont realize that you could just about mug a reciever back then.  I think roughing the passer was just hitting him more than 2 steps after he through the ball.  I dont remember any helmet to helmet rule and you could hit the QB anywhere and anyway that you wanted.  And there was no such thing as a defensless reciever.

 

But he isn't playing those teams, against the current teams he has been to the Super Bowl 8 times. That's E-I-G-H-T times. There isn't any QB from any era that accomplished that. You could argue in terms of legacy that Bradshaw and Montana still one up him for never losing a Super Bowl and doing it in the era of football that you prefer. But you may never see what he's accomplished again. And I feel like this would be less of a discussion if it was Brees or Manning with all the rings. People that are universally liked and not on the Patriots.

[WideNine]

On 11/14/2018 at 3:07 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

But we kick off with the NFL's biggest story: Tom Brady's arm is toast, and that could mean real trouble for the Patriots. 

 

Stop snickering. It's really true this time!

 

Tom Brady's arm looks like overcooked fettuccine right now.

 

There, we stated the obvious, and no fiery hail rained down upon us. So it's OK to say it out loud. Brady looked like a knuckleball pitcher in the Patriots' stunning 34-10 upset loss to the Titans, and he didn't have much of a fastball against the Packers or Bills in his last two games.

 

Long Brady passes now flutter out of bounds or bounce before they reach receivers. Short ones take too long to reach their targets, allowing defenders to swat them away. Passes toward the sideline arrive low and outside.

 

The Patriots offense has become a succession of touch passes over the middle, intricate screens and increasingly desperate trick plays. The Titans caught on, and other opponents are about to figure it out as well.

 

11-14: Mike Tanier from Bleacher Report on WGR with Schopp & the Bulldog (20:30)

 

Yeah... I have expected to see a noticeable decline sooner, but he looked BAD against the Titans. Against our team his scramble for the first down looked like it needed a time lapse camera, and I would swear that some of our young secondary pulled up to avoid killing grandpa Brady.

 

Usually you start to see the good ones slip in the post season...they start getting noodle arm from the toll a season takes to get there. This may be his swan song and it is a bit sad, but I can't shake the feeling that if he was pissed he could still hang 40 on my Bills.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

Yeah... I have expected to see a noticeable decline sooner, but he looked BAD against the Titans. Against our team his scramble for the first down looked like it needed a time lapse camera, and I would swear that some of our young secondary pulled up to avoid killing grandpa Brady.

 

Usually you start to see the good ones slip in the post season...they start getting noodle arm from the toll a season takes to get there. This may be his swan song and it is a bit sad, but I can't shake the feeling that if he was pissed he could still hang 40 on my Bills.

 

[frostbitmic]

Yeah,  I'll believe that when Brady and the leagues favorite team misses the Super Bowl for a change.

[thebandit27]

28 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Yeah,  I'll believe that when Brady and the leagues favorite team misses the Super Bowl for a change.

 

He can be in obvious decline and the team can still win as long as he can make enough plays.

 

Are you saying that you didn't believe Peyton Manning was in obvious decline the year Denver beat NE and went on to win the Super Bowl?

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

He can be in obvious decline and the team can still win as long as he can make enough plays.

 

Are you saying that you didn't believe Peyton Manning was in obvious decline the year Denver beat NE and went on to win the Super Bowl?

Worth a read — https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/11/14/18094854/new-england-patriots-tom-brady-bill-belichick-super-bowl-contention

[Green Lightning]

22 hours ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

I didn't type asterisks

Who did?

[thebandit27]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Worth a read — https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/11/14/18094854/new-england-patriots-tom-brady-bill-belichick-super-bowl-contention

 

Exactly

 

They'll be a contender for as long as they can continue to outmaneuver their opponents 

[formerlyofCtown]

13 hours ago, Luka said:

 

But he isn't playing those teams, against the current teams he has been to the Super Bowl 8 times. That's E-I-G-H-T times. There isn't any QB from any era that accomplished that. You could argue in terms of legacy that Bradshaw and Montana still one up him for never losing a Super Bowl and doing it in the era of football that you prefer. But you may never see what he's accomplished again. And I feel like this would be less of a discussion if it was Brees or Manning with all the rings. People that are universally liked and not on the Patriots.

Im refering to him not being the GOAt if you follow everything.  So your reply is really irrelavent to what Im saying.  And Brees and Manning would be the same case.  Rivers and Big Ben would do alright in any era I believe.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[May Day 10]

IMO, the Saints and/or Rams would/will destroy the Patriots in the Super Bowl... and probably the Chiefs as well (if they make it).  The only AFC teams I can imagine having a chance would be Pittsburgh and maybe the Chargers because they can both put up points and have a competent defense.

 

I also dont see New England beating the Chiefs, Chargers, or Pittsburgh on the road.  If they again fluke into home field advantage throughout, they will probably advance to the Super Bowl, predicated on whatever hijinks go on there.

 

 

 

 

[Luka]

5 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Im refering to him not being the GOAt if you follow everything.  So your reply is really irrelavent to what Im saying.  And Brees and Manning would be the same case.  Rivers and Big Ben would do alright in any era I believe.

 Wow. You are dense.

 

Numbers wise, he's the GOAT. There really is no argument or discussion to be made. Trying to say he couldn't play in a different era is what's irrelevant. He didn't time travel to play in this era of football.

[Bing Bong]

17 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

He can be in obvious decline and the team can still win as long as he can make enough plays.

 

Are you saying that you didn't believe Peyton Manning was in obvious decline the year Denver beat NE and went on to win the Super Bowl?

He looks just like Peyton Manning did post MVP year. Getting by on a weak arm that's gonna fall apart real quick next year. First time I've called the downfall of Brady so I haven't been wrong on that yet lol.

 

He's always been noodly though if Beli finds a way to stack the roster with good YAC recievers he can dink and dunk a decent offense for as long as the refs are going to leave him untouchable.

Edited November 16, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks

[iinii]

I have been saying this since the Monday nighter at the Cap. The Tennessee game became another nail. Time has caught up with the GOAT like it does with everything. Tommy boy has haunted us long enough. 

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

IMO, the Saints and/or Rams would/will destroy the Patriots in the Super Bowl... and probably the Chiefs as well (if they make it).  The only AFC teams I can imagine having a chance would be Pittsburgh and maybe the Chargers because they can both put up points and have a competent defense.

 

I also dont see New England beating the Chiefs, Chargers, or Pittsburgh on the road.  If they again fluke into home field advantage throughout, they will probably advance to the Super Bowl, predicated on whatever hijinks go on there.

 

 

 

 

There won’t be another Super Bowl for #12. 

[aristocrat]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

IMO, the Saints and/or Rams would/will destroy the Patriots in the Super Bowl... and probably the Chiefs as well (if they make it).  The only AFC teams I can imagine having a chance would be Pittsburgh and maybe the Chargers because they can both put up points and have a competent defense.

 

I also dont see New England beating the Chiefs, Chargers, or Pittsburgh on the road.  If they again fluke into home field advantage throughout, they will probably advance to the Super Bowl, predicated on whatever hijinks go on there.

 

 

 

 

 

the chargers with bosa can be a really dangerous team. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Wesseling: Tom Brady no longer a top-five 'old' QB

6) Tom Brady, 41, New England Patriots

After topping the charts in touchdowns, TD:INT ratio and passer rating in a three-year span from 2015 to 2017, Brady ranks 15th, 12th and 17th in those categories, respectively, this season. Those are the numbers. What does the film show? My colleague Gregg Rosenthal's QB Index, which grades every throw by every passer, placed Brady at the top in each of the past two seasons. Through 11 weeks of the 2018 season, 10 QBs rank higher than the reigning MVP. Brady deserves the utmost respect for obsessively training to reverse the effects of typical decline, improbably turning pocket movement from a weakness to a strength as he approached the age-40 barrier.

 

For the first time since his mid-30s, though, his ability to throw from a muddy pocket is regressing. Self-preservation is a powerful instinct, ultimately toppling fearsome linebackers as well as pretty-boy passers. Brady has been flinching to protect himself, turning his back and shoulders to oncoming pass rushers and letting balls sail off-target. He struggles to throw with authority and consistency outside the numbers and downfield, too often seeing his passes nosedive at the catch point. For compensation purposes, the Patriots' offense is more reliant than ever upon smoke and mirrors. To be clear, none of this is brand new. It's just that the ratio of poor plays to positive plays is gradually increasing. In fact, one source has Brady with the highest rate of off-target throws this season.

 

One of the fiercest competitors ever to play the position, Brady has made a career out of slaying dragons. This isn't a 2015 Peyton Manning situation, where the quarterback is an albatross in danger of losing his job to keep the Super Bowl contender afloat. If Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel stay healthy and the offensive line keeps the pressure at bay, nobody should be surprised if the legend who has spent an entire career bending the two-minute drill to his indomitable will finds himself back where he belongs -- in the AFC title game.

[Success]

The Pats still have a good shot at the Super Bowl for 2 reasons:  a weak AFC, and the acquisition of Gordon (thanks, Cleveland).

 

But this is the end.  Both the division and conference should be improved next year, and Brady won’t get younger or better.  I will enjoy watching him decline.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Success

[NoHuddleKelly12]

I don’t know what’s more amazing. That TB12 has been on top of his game for almost the entire century so far, or that the Bills have been down for the same period of time virtually <sigh>.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 11/15/2018 at 7:35 PM, frostbitmic said:

Yeah,  I'll believe that when Brady and the leagues favorite team misses the Super Bowl for a change.

 

On 11/15/2018 at 7:35 PM, frostbitmic said:

Yeah,  I'll believe that when Brady and the leagues favorite team misses the Super Bowl for a change.

 

...I would think his precipitous fall from 13-3 to a probable 11-5 necessitates lighting the funeral pyre.....

[row_33]

2 hours ago, Success said:

The Pats still have a good shot at the Super Bowl for 2 reasons:  a weak AFC, and the acquisition of Gordon (thanks, Cleveland).

 

But this is the end.  Both the division and conference should be improved next year, and Brady won’t get younger or better.  I will enjoy watching him decline.

 

how do you dictate that the division AND conference will be better next year?

 

 

[Success]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

how do you dictate that the division AND conference will be better next year?

 

 

Not dictating anything.  It’s called observation.

 

 

[mannc]

5 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I don’t know what’s more amazing. That TB12 has been on top of his game for almost the entire century so far, or that the Bills have been down for the same period of time virtually <sigh>.

Agreed.  Those two things are not unconnected, though.

[4merper4mer]

On November 15, 2018 at 8:05 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

He can be in obvious decline and the team can still win as long as he can make enough plays.

 

Are you saying that you didn't believe Peyton Manning was in obvious decline the year Denver beat NE and went on to win the Super Bowl?

Denver's defense that year was far different than NE's this year.

[Talley56]

I am skeptical of his decline given a few games from earlier this year.  While I don’t think Miami is as good as their record suggests he did slice them up with ease earlier this year when they were unbeaten.  Plus outdueling KC and winning at Chicago against a good Bears team.

 

But maybe it’s taken the rigors of a full season for his decline to start showing.  If it is starting I would welcome it.