Mike Tanier - The Decline of Tom Brady, Part XIV: This Time It's Really Happening

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

Brady can still sling it. The one downside I notice is he is not as aggressive as he used to be.

 

He's not as calm in the pocket when pressured. 

[Chris66]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's not as calm in the pocket when pressured. 

He still moves around ok. He never did well when pressured up the middle

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's not as calm in the pocket when pressured. 

 

for 17 years I've been reading this...

 

Edelman is the key here, if he's healthy there is nothing they can't eke out when it matters

 

and the other coaches are going to choke and blink if it comes down to a clutch decision in the playoffs

 

[boyst]

Saying he looks average when he's in the top half of the league is *****.  

 

32 QB's in the NFL. 3 or 4 are always never any good and not true NFL talents.  3 or 4 more are always inconsistent or flash in the pan without real longevity as a starter beyond a few years, and another 2 or 3 are rookies who show potential but judged on the bell curve so that takes you down to 25 QB's roughly so being in the top half really is more about being a top 10 QB.

[TheFunPolice]

Hit Brady early and he is skittish the rest of the game...

 

Hit him early, force a punt on their first possession, and score on yours to go up 7-0. That's almost always the type of game that beats them.

 

If it's a shootout and he isn't pressured OR you settle for FGs too many times  you are going to lose still (see KC).

[Chris66]

If you want to talk decline. Look at Gronk. He is done.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Chris66 said:

If you want to talk decline. Look at Gronk. He is done.

 

Man, he looks really slow!

[row_33]

19 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Hit Brady early and he is skittish the rest of the game...

 

Hit him early, force a punt on their first possession, and score on yours to go up 7-0. That's almost always the type of game that beats them.

 

If it's a shootout and he isn't pressured OR you settle for FGs too many times  you are going to lose still (see KC).

 

 

yeah, rush him, hit him, he will crumble

 

SIMPLE!!

 

for 17 years now

 

give it up

 

18 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

If you want to talk decline. Look at Gronk. He is done.

 

they won it without him two years ago

 

 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

11 hours ago, KD in CA said:

I think Brady and Belichick are trying to wait each other out so they can each try to prove they don't need the other to win.

I think Belichick has already proven he can win without Brady. What are they, something like 13-6 without Brady? Hardly the fall that Indy experienced once Peyton went down.

 

[mjd1001]

15 hours ago, mrags said:

That might be ok. But I really want him and the rest of the Pats fans to suffer. I want a serious franchise crushing year out of him. I don’t want him to make the playoffs. I don’t want him to finish the year and I want him to be healthy but just really bad. It adds to the heartbreak for their super classy fans I think. 

Suffering is what might happen because most of them seem to be in denial that he will ever be bad.

 

My company has one of our main offices outside of Boston, and I have to admit I sometime glance at the comments sections on patfans or boston.com...but most of what I get is from my Boston co-workers.  Right now they are 'slightly concerned', but not as much as I would have thought. They want the by-week, but most of them this morning were just saying the pats are still the AFC favorite, and not having the by-week just makes it a little tiny bit tougher for them.  They expect Brady to be elite when it counts (playoffs).

 

At our last annual meeting in Foxboro, I asked them how they thought the 'brady era' would end..and the consensus among the pats fans there was he would likely play 2-3 more years...the Pats would be in the mix for Superbowls ever year...and by his last year...2020 or 2021, there might be some 'slight' slippage in his play and that is when he'll choose to retire so he can still go out 'on top'.  Maybe that isn't what ever Pats fans thinks...but they guys in our office there who like to speak up about sports...that sure is their opinion.

Edited December 17, 2018 by mjd1001

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

14 hours ago, KD in CA said:

I think Brady and Belichick are trying to wait each other out so they can each try to prove they don't need the other to win.

 

Wouldnt shock me at all.

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

you've been telling us he is deteriorating for HOW MANY YEARS?

 

NO, IT"S SERIOUS THIS TIME!!

 

(LOL)

 

 

Why is it serious this time?  In just about every aspect of QB play....wins and losses...points scored...QB rating...QBR...just about any metric you want....where he (or the pats) ranked toward the top of the league most of the time..now they are quite a bit down.  And if no measurable metrics do it for you (not even wins and losses or points ranking compared to the rest of the league), then the eye test should.  I, like many others on this board, typically see 8 or more Pats games a year.  It is not even close...this year there are more passes that WR's are reaching for (that didn't happen in the past) or passes that receivers are basically picking up off the turf or even passes that hit the ground before they get there....more of that than I can ever remember with him.

[thebandit27]

On 11/14/2018 at 4:10 PM, thebandit27 said:

He's right, and Belichick saw it coming.

 

Their entire offseason, draft, and in-season game plan was/is predicated upon transitioning to a run-based offense.  If they can't run the ball, they're in real trouble.

 

They've scored 27 or more points 5 times this year, and those outputs came in their 5 best rushing efforts.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE.  We saw it vs. Buf on MNF--a team with a half-competent offense would've won that game.

 

Updating this:

 

NE is 7-0 when they rush for over 100 yards

NE is 2-5 when they rush for less than 100 yards.  The two losses? The game where they rushed for 97 yards against the Colts, and the game in which they got to face Derek Anderson--a game that would've been lost to any team with a competent QB.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE.

[billsfan_34]

4 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

you've been telling us he is deteriorating for HOW MANY YEARS?

 

NO, IT"S SERIOUS THIS TIME!!

 

(LOL)

 

 

Haha- hes done!!!

[I Make All The Throws]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Updating this:

 

NE is 7-0 when they rush for over 100 yards

NE is 2-5 when they rush for less than 100 yards.  The two losses? The game where they rushed for 97 yards against the Colts, and the game in which they got to face Derek Anderson--a game that would've been lost to any team with a competent QB.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE.

 

These types of stats are my personal pet peeves. When you are winning the game, you end up running more to kill the clock (so you have a lot of rushing stats). If you're behind in a game, you are throwing the ball to catch up and don't run much at all. Then broadcasters say "when they run, they win." No, when they win, they run. Which one comes first? Maybe they ran the ball like crazy in the first half and they are correct in their perception that their running game is the key to their offense, that certainly happens. I think there was even a game or two where Michel had like 150+ yards. But generally, that is not the case. Someone would have to break down the wins and losses for me in order to believe they are winning because their running game.

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by I Make All The Throws

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, I Make All The Throws said:

 

These types of stats are my personal pet peeves. When you are winning the game, you end up running more to kill the clock (so you have a lot of rushing stats). If you're behind in a game, you are throwing the ball to catch up and don't run much at all. Then broadcasters say "when they run, they win." No, when they win, they run. Which one comes first? Maybe they ran the ball like crazy in the first half and they are correct in their perception that their running game is the key to their offense, that certainly happens. I think there was even a game or two where Michel had like 150+ yards. But generally, that is not the case. Someone would have to break down the wins and losses for me in order to believe they are winning because their running game.

 

 

Feel free to look at the play-by-play in those games.

 

I watch every game every week, and it's been apparent to me since September that this is a run-first team.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Thriftygamer83]

9 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Just going to say it in ten years Brady will have severe CTE and be known as sticking around for to long.  

[BillsfaninChicago]

10 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

I respectfully disagree- Brady is beginning to deteriorate. Sure, he may have games that are above average and some flashes of greatness- but all in all many people have the same assessment as I do. I hope he plays another 5 years and we watch him turn into a shell of his former self.

For the record I was being sarcastic. Poor attempt at humor on my part. I actually do agree with you. Would be surprised if he could last another 5 years as the starter though but Brady has sadly proved me wrong about his career ending for nearly a decade. 

[Yav]

Meh, another 8 week cycle and he’ll be just fine.

[Bing Bong]

I've never called TB's demise.. until this year!

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Not sure if this article has been linked to yet or not, but I thought this was an interesting "contra" take out of Boston, even though I don't agree with it, seeking to place blame on the play calling and TB12's aversion to taking any hits in the pocket, not a deterioration of any of his physical skills:

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/12/17/decline-of-tom-brady-patriots-film-breakdown/

 

[cd1]

On 12/17/2018 at 11:43 AM, row_33 said:

it would be great if Brady hung them up

 

then 6-10 would win the division next year

 

that would be awesome

 

Why do you even bother?

 

[Mat68]

It wouldn't be a dagger in the heart, but Allen going into Gillette and leading the Bill's to victory could be a foreshadowing of what's ahead.  A Derek Anderson led Bill's had the ball in the red zone in a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter vs NE earlier this year.  Buffalo will give NE all it can handle.  Does NE have the athletic ability at LB to contain Allen on the ground? Maybe I'm wrong and Allen throws a bunch of picks, Brady has his best game of the year and the beat goes on.   

[TheFunPolice]

23 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Not sure if this article has been linked to yet or not, but I thought this was an interesting "contra" take out of Boston, even though I don't agree with it, seeking to place blame on the play calling and TB12's aversion to taking any hits in the pocket, not a deterioration of any of his physical skills:

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2018/12/17/decline-of-tom-brady-patriots-film-breakdown/

 

 

Interesting take...

 

To me, when someone says "deterioration of physical skills" it means the ability to perform at previous levels on a consistent basis.

 

For example, Michael Jordan scored 43 points as a 40 year old NBA player in a game. He also scored 40+ points 2 other times that same season. However, 40 year old Jordan was nowhere near 30 year old Jordan in terms of the ability to do that night after night. He could still have some huge games, but over the long haul his points per game average dropped from the low 30's to low 20's.

 

That's where Brady is now IMO. He could have a game where he throws for 400 yards and 4-5 TDs. Then he could follow that up with a 220 yard game with 1 TD and 1 INT.

 

That's the difference between now and previous seasons, IMO. In previous years he would be #1 or #2 in TD passes and would torch teams every week. Now, he is just another good NFL QB. Still dangerous, still capable of hurting you, but sports are a young man's game in the end.

 

His preparation, knowledge, and competitive fire keep him able to be a top 5-10 QB this year. But he's not top 5 this season in terms of play, and this only goes one way. He isn't going to be better at age 42 than age 41.

 

One thing Brady has shown is that it truly is impossible to beat Father Time. If he can't do it with his witch doctors and potions and yoga, along with his desire to stick a dagger into the heart of non-Patriot fans, then nobody ever will.

 

Another thing Brady has going for him is that eh was never all that athletic. It's counter-intuitive, but the super athletic QBs will never be around at age 41-42, because even though they have a much higher ceiling in terms of physical tools, they also rely on them more and play a different type of game. Once those tools are gone, can they become statues that cannot move but can still play? I doubt it.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by TheFunPolice

[NoHuddleKelly12]

5 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Interesting take...

 

To me, when someone says "deterioration of physical skills" it means the ability to perform at previous levels on a consistent basis.

 

For example, Michael Jordan scored 43 points as a 40 year old NBA player in a game. He also scored 40+ points 2 other times that same season. However, 40 year old Jordan was nowhere near 30 year old Jordan in terms of the ability to do that night after night. He could still have some huge games, but over the long haul his points per game average dropped from the low 30's to low 20's.

 

That's where Brady is now IMO. He could have a game where he throws for 400 yards and 4-5 TDs. Then he could follow that up with a 220 yard game with 1 TD and 1 INT.

 

That's the difference between now and previous seasons, IMO. In previous years he would be #1 or #2 in TD passes and would torch teams every week. Now, he is just another good NFL QB. Still dangerous, still capable of hurting you, but sports are a young man's game in the end.

 

His preparation, knowledge, and competitive fire keep him able to be a top 5-10 QB this year. But he's not top 5 this season in terms of play, and this only goes one way. He isn't going to be better at age 42 than age 41.

^^^^^^^This. 

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

It wouldn't be a dagger in the heart, but Allen going into Gillette and leading the Bill's to victory could be a foreshadowing of what's ahead.  A Derek Anderson led Bill's had the ball in the red zone in a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter vs NE earlier this year.  Buffalo will give NE all it can handle.  Does NE have the athletic ability at LB to contain Allen on the ground? Maybe I'm wrong and Allen throws a bunch of picks, Brady has his best game of the year and the beat goes on.   

That's why this week will be appointment viewing! 

[TheFunPolice]

19 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Updating this:

 

NE is 7-0 when they rush for over 100 yards

NE is 2-5 when they rush for less than 100 yards.  The two losses? The game where they rushed for 97 yards against the Colts, and the game in which they got to face Derek Anderson--a game that would've been lost to any team with a competent QB.

 

Stop the run, and you stop NE.

 

Good call! I've noticed this as well.

 

As crazy as it sounds, force NE to throw the ball and you can beat them. When has that been said lately?!

 

That's why a team like SD or even Baltimore can really hurt them I think. The recipe is to run the ball against their terrible run defense, not turn it over, then score 7's and not 3's in the Red Zone. If you put pressure on them score-wise, then shut down the run, you get this year's Titans game where a team like Tennessee completely dominated them from start to finish.

[Success]

Some keep pointing out that “we say this every year,” but he’s clearly declining now.  Still one of the best in the league, but he’s no longer the terminator. 

 

His last 4 passes the other day, with the game on the line, were a revelation.

[KD in CA]

Just now, Success said:

Some keep pointing out that “we say this every year,” but he’s clearly declining now.  Still one of the best in the league, but he’s no longer the terminator. 

 

His last 4 passes the other day, with the game on the line, were a revelation.

 

Yes and yes.   And he still has the best HC so yes they are still as much of a threat in the playoffs as anyone.

[Dr.Sack]

This is predicated by the loss of an athletic Gronkowski & a gimpy Edelman coming back from an ACL coupled with the loss of Amendola. All the easy passes are locked down. Simply watch how former Belichick assistant coaches played him (Detroit, Tennessee). Don’t buy the fakes, play press man and watch out for trickery plays & get 4 man pressure. 

[Success]

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

 

Yes and yes.   And he still has the best HC so yes they are still as much of a threat in the playoffs as anyone.

No doubt.  I still expect to see them in the SB.  

[May Day 10]

27 minutes ago, Success said:

No doubt.  I still expect to see them in the SB.  

 

beating Colts/Ravens/Titans at home, then the Texans on the road is a real possibility, if not probability.  Then, if the Chiefs (who havent looked stellar lately) get upset, New England magically hosts another AFC Championship game

 

If the Patriots lose one and the Steelers can pass them, their road gets a bit tougher as they would have to play the Chargers (probably) in round 1, and then have to travel to KC.... and their chances of hosting the AFCC would rely on Colts/Ravens/Titans winning through.

Edited December 18, 2018 by May Day 10

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Cmdjr85]

On 11/14/2018 at 4:23 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

Probably, Beilchek can be a mean egomaniac, the not telling ahead of time and starting Butler in the Super Bowl, class move,

When you dont show up for game preperation and youre in the hospital, along with terrible play most of last year expecially in the playoffs your probably gonna lose your job.

Dude was benched in week 2 last year. Rowe got hurt in that game and he was put back on the field

13 hours ago, Mat68 said:

It wouldn't be a dagger in the heart, but Allen going into Gillette and leading the Bill's to victory could be a foreshadowing of what's ahead.  A Derek Anderson led Bill's had the ball in the red zone in a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter vs NE earlier this year.  Buffalo will give NE all it can handle.  Does NE have the athletic ability at LB to contain Allen on the ground? Maybe I'm wrong and Allen throws a bunch of picks, Brady has his best game of the year and the beat goes on.   

Incorrect, what happened in buffalo holds no bearing on the game at gillette pats win and cover

[downunderbill]

13 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

As crazy as it sounds, force NE to throw the ball and you can beat them. When has that been said lately?!

 

That and blitz him relentlessly, knock him down a few times and get a bit panic into him.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[whatdrought]

30 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

*sluuuurrrrrrrrrrrp*

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Success]

If a 41 year old Brady can take this team - no Gordon, no D, a broken down Gronk - to the Super Bowl, then there will no longer be any doubt whatsoever:  clearly, he has a deal with the devil.