Matt Harmon: Best Tight-Window Passers of 2017

[26CornerBlitz]

ANALYSIS

Best Tight-Window Passers of 2017

Matt Harmon continues his countdowns of the best players of 2017, according to Next Gen Stats' data. See the ranking of the top 10 tight-window quarterbacks of the season.

 

For years, we've heard scouting terms tossed around when discussing the worth of NFL signal-callers, but new advanced analytics are now able to quantify the concepts that have just been anecdotally assessed in the past. With the help of Next Gen Stats data brought to us by chips in every player's shoulder pads, we can now measure the best tight-window passers in the NFL. Using a composite score of several tight-window passing stats, we'll examine the top 10 players at the position when making such throws.

Here are the qualifiers for the rankings:

 

» Next Gen Stats defines a "tight-window throw" as a throw where the intended receiver had less than a yard of separation from the defender.

 

» The average quarterback threw 18.6 percent of his passes into a tight window over the last two seasons.

 

» Only quarterbacks with over 200 pass attempts and seven-plus games played in 2017 qualified for the list (35 total players).

 

» The ranking was established by the quarterbacks among the 35 qualifiers who had the best rankings in the following three categories:

 

-- Completion rate on tight-window throws.
-- Passer rating on tight-window throws.
-- Adjusted yards per attempt on tight-window throws.

 

 

Benched by his own team amid a playoff run and constantly heckled by a vocal group of fans on the interwebs, Taylor may well be the most underappreciated player in the league. The Bills receivers do Taylor no favors, averaging fewer yards of separation on their routes than any group in the league.

 

While he's a flawed player in some respects and doesn't fit the cookie-cutter mold most conservative coaches desire from their signal-callers, there's no denying Taylor is capable of making difficult throws. His 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt on tight-window passes ranked sixth among qualifying quarterbacks and showed how efficient he can be when fitting the ball in to well-covered receivers. If Taylor deserves any criticism, it's that he should take more chances. He threw just 15 percent of his passes into tight windows this past season and 14.1 percent back in 2016, ranking him among the most cautious quarterbacks in both years.

Edited February 14, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Stank_Nasty]

but he's got wr's running wide open all game!!!!

 

I know becuz plenty of posters around here tell me so!

 

on a serious note. I've already moved on. lets just make it official as soon as possible. the only way i'd be ok with keeping him around is if they still go out and make a huge move in the draft to get their guy. 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

While he's a flawed player in some respects and doesn't fit the cookie-cutter mold most conservative coaches desire from their signal-callers, there's no denying Taylor is capable of making difficult throws. His 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt on tight-window passes ranked sixth among qualifying quarterbacks and showed how efficient he can be when fitting the ball in to well-covered receivers. If Taylor deserves any criticism, it's that he should take more chances. He threw just 15 percent of his passes into tight windows this past season and 14.1 percent back in 2016, ranking him among the most cautious quarterbacks in both years.

 

This is the best paragraph to describe Tyrod. Maybe on his next team he'll start taking more chances with the ball. He certainly could keep working on that.

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

but he's got wr's running wide open all game!!!!

 

I know becuz plenty of posters around here tell me so!

 

on a serious note. I've already moved on. lets just make it official as soon as possible. the only way i'd be ok with keeping him around is if they still go out and make a huge move in the draft to get their guy. 

 

Are the stats for all receivers, or just the ones he decides to throw to??? 

[buffaloboyinATL]

13 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

but he's got wr's running wide open all game!!!!

 

I know becuz plenty of posters around here tell me so!

 

on a serious note. I've already moved on. lets just make it official as soon as possible. the only way i'd be ok with keeping him around is if they still go out and make a huge move in the draft to get their guy. 

I believe that stat only considers the WR he throws the ball to, NOT receivers who may be open elsewhere on the field. So in theory, if he were to lock in on a target and force the ball to that covered receiver, it would make his separation on release look low.

[Forward Progress]

Is the separation at release because the WR's don't get separation or because the release isn't timed with the break in the route?  It's some of each, in my opinion. Taylor doesn't throw the ball in sync with the route's design where the WR's separation would be at it's best.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the best paragraph to describe Tyrod. Maybe on his next team he'll start taking more chances with the ball. He certainly could keep working on that.

 

 

Or.......maybe on his next team they won't try to see how much he can do without good receivers too? 

 

Eagles proved how important WR talent is..........out with the meh possession types like Jordan Matthews......and in the the fast and the playmakers.

 

[1st&ten]

32 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

While he's a flawed player in some respects and doesn't fit the cookie-cutter mold most conservative coaches desire from their signal-callers, there's no denying Taylor is capable of making difficult throws. His 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt on tight-window passes ranked sixth among qualifying quarterbacks and showed how efficient he can be when fitting the ball in to well-covered receivers. If Taylor deserves any criticism, it's that he should take more chances. He threw just 15 percent of his passes into tight windows this past season and 14.1 percent back in 2016, ranking him among the most cautious quarterbacks in both years.

 

The problem isn't that he can't throw into tight windows; it's that he doesn't read the field & coverages quick enough. How many receivers has he almost gotten killed over the last couple of years.

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, 1st&ten said:

 

The problem isn't that he can't throw into tight windows; it's that he doesn't read the field & coverages quick enough. How many receivers has he almost gotten killed over the last couple of years.

 

 

None!

 

I can't recall him throwing a single receiver into a bad collision in 3 years.

 

I can remember EJ throwing Sammy into broken ribs against the Steelers in the preseason...........or EJ throwing Bob Woods into a horrible collision with Lavonte David.........or even Peterman throwing Kelvin Benjamin into his knee injury in LA........but Taylor is always throwing the ball AWAY from defenders.

 

I've seen a lot of complaints about Taylor but none has less validity than that one.

[mjt328]

11 minutes ago, 1st&ten said:

 

The problem isn't that he can't throw into tight windows; it's that he doesn't read the field & coverages quick enough.

 

I think this is the problem as well.

 

I've never thought Tyrod's accuracy was bad ... at least compared to his recent predecessors EJ Manuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

Some guys just process what is happening a split-second slow.  Unfortunately, that split-second is the difference between superstars, average guys and those who completely flame-out of the NFL.  For many quarterbacks, this slow processing results in lots of pass break-ups, poor timing with receivers and interceptions.  Not so much with Tyrod.  He is more gun-shy, and just holds the ball until he recognizes what is happening.  With him, we see more sacks and unnecessary check-downs (which ultimately do not hurt his stats, but kill drives nonetheless).  Also keep in mind that Tyrod often makes up for slow recognition with his scrambling ability, allowing him to escape pressure and extend plays.  This is where is value lies.  But good defenses can often keep him contained in the pocket, and that's why we need an upgrade.

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

27 minutes ago, 1st&ten said:

 

The problem isn't that he can't throw into tight windows; it's that he doesn't read the field & coverages quick enough. How many receivers has he almost gotten killed over the last couple of years.

 

That's an issue without question, but I don't recall too many instances of him hanging receivers out to dry. 

[Teddy KGB]

 

 

 

[dulles]

46 minutes ago, 1st&ten said:

 

The problem isn't that he can't throw into tight windows; it's that he doesn't read the field & coverages quick enough. How many receivers has he almost gotten killed over the last couple of years.

That was EJ.

[White Linen]

15 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

 

This is exactly what's wrong with TT and it's not just this hand picked play - this is consistently what he misses.  He's not even really understanding pre-snap what's happening.  Single high safety left of the left hash mark so the one on one to his right is the pre-snap read.  Tyrod snaps the ball, doesn't look to the right and almost appears to be looking off the safety by starring straight ahead when the safety is already not in position.  What is he doing?  Then if the right wide out doesn't get open (although he does) the check down is obviously the comeback route - guys wide open and he doesn't throw it.  

 

He's not a passer.  This example right here is novice stuff - it gets way more complicated where the reads require a lot more discipline and knowledge.  This is stuff kids learn in High School.  

[Jasovon]

Taylor's problem is nothing to do with his ability to throw a ball, his problem is making decisions and the mental element of the game which it's abundantly clear he doesn't get. 

 

He can throw into a tight windows he just chooses not to. 

[White Linen]

Jones is wide open.  He's not even looking at the routes.  He stares up the middle hoping he'll see someone once the smoke clears - that's because it all looks confusing to him when this is a simple - ok if the LB takes once step forward, gotcha.  He cannot do this.  

 

 

I think he's so athletic that he pretends he's looking safeties off, etc, when it's really he has absolutely no clue what he's supposed to be seeing.   He'll make some crazy play out of nothing and everyone will blame the receivers and/or the offensive line.  He's bad folks, real bad.  These are elementary NFL reads and he's taking sacks.  

 

He's a dunce as a QB.  How can this not be seen?  TT haters?  I don't think so.  He's a nice guy that has no business playing NFL QB.  These guys are getting open.  He's going into his drop not knowing what in the hell he's supposed to be looking for.   What he does at 1:24 looking right at the play that should be developing then look away to the left to the covered receiver is egregious.   That's not being conservative or taking care of the ball or any of the other crazy excuses we assign to TT.  

Edited February 9, 2018 by White Linen

[cba fan]

41 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

Looks like he cocked to throw to Thompson and brought it back when the safety was in is line to throw coming forward. Looked like with an arm like TT has it was an easy try. Example of too cautious I guess.

[Elite Poster]

13 minutes ago, White Linen said:

Jones is wide open.  He's not even looking at the routes.  He stares up the middle hoping he'll see someone once the smoke clears - that's because it all looks confusing to him when this is a simple - ok if the LB takes once step forward, gotcha.  He cannot do this.  

 

 

I think he's so athletic that he pretends he's looking safeties off, etc, when it's really he has absolutely no clue what he's supposed to be seeing.   He'll make some crazy play out of nothing and everyone will blame the receivers and/or the offensive line.  He's bad folks, real bad.  These are elementary NFL reads and he's taking sacks.  

 

He's a dunce as a QB.  How can this not be seen?  TT haters?  I don't think so.  He's a nice guy that has no business playing NFL QB.  These guys are getting open.  He's going into his drop not knowing what in the hell he's supposed to be looking for.   What he does at 1:24 looking right at the play that should be developing then look away to the left to the covered receiver is egregious.   That's not being conservative or taking care of the ball or any of the other crazy excuses we assign to TT.  

 

The best part about this post, is the first video you have literally ended with blame on the pass protection.....

[GunnerBill]

The problem with Tyrod has never been the plays he makes. It has always been the ones that are there that he doesn't even attempt. 

[White Linen]

1 minute ago, cba fan said:

Looks like he cocked to throw to Thompson and brought it back when the safety was in is line to throw coming forward. Looked like with an arm like TT has it was an easy try. Example of too cautious I guess.

 

You're missing it.  He has no business looking up the middle then back to the right.  His first look should be to the right, there's no one to look off.  You stare that down and let your NFL receiver take someone one on one.  Our guy does.  This idiot is looking towards the middle - for no apparent reason, then looks back to the right and by then the receiver has made it all the way to the safety that started out left of the left hash mark.  Total blown play by a man having no idea what he's doing.   Go the the :49 second mark, he looks right for less than a second and swings his head to the middle at :50 - why???????

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, cba fan said:

Looks like he cocked to throw to Thompson and brought it back when the safety was in is line to throw coming forward. Looked like with an arm like TT has it was an easy try. Example of too cautious I guess.

Thompson wasn't signed to our roster until after the Bengals game.

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The problem with Tyrod has never been the plays he makes. It has always been the ones that are there that he doesn't even attempt. 

Sins of omission.  TT has lots of those.  

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Or.......maybe on his next team they won't try to see how much he can do without good receivers too? 

 

Eagles proved how important WR talent is..........out with the meh possession types like Jordan Matthews......and in the the fast and the playmakers.

 

Cuz Meh Matthews only had one of the best starts to his career https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zK36H They only trade him cuz Agolar couldn't play on the outside either and we're desperate for CB help

Edited February 9, 2018 by The Jokeman

[GoBills808]

Receivers in Pittsburgh should be ashamed of themselves, they got less separation than the Browns. That’s clearly why the Steelers didn’t lead the league in passing and the Browns did.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

 

Yep, that's it in a nutshell.

 

[Fixxxer]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

 

TT doesn't have the balls to beat that MLB in zone coverage. He sees the LBs backpedaling, covering ground and he can't pull the trigger to the place the WR will be, but hey, he's the best we have right now.....

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Cuz Meh Matthews only had one of the best starts to his career https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zK36H They only trade him cuz Agolar couldn't play on the outside either and we're desperate for CB help

 

They were trying to trade Matthews for months.

 

No takers.

 

He was a throw in.

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That's an issue without question, but I don't recall too many instances of him hanging receivers out to dry. 

This is true.

 

But most of the time the receiver is avoiding contact because the throw is so low he has to catch it from laying down, or the receiver has to stop his route as the ball isn’t in stride.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Jay_Fixit said:

This is true.

 

But most of the time the receiver is avoiding contact because the throw is so low he has to catch it from laying down, or the receiver has to stop his route as the ball isn’t in stride.

 

Anything to back this up?  Somehow I doubt it. 

[JaCrispy]

Nope nope nope....I’m gonna follow my instincts...I’m breedin’, man...

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

Please, Hammer...don’t hurt ‘em! 

[Roundybout]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

They were trying to trade Matthews for months.

 

No takers.

 

He was a throw in.

 

So what if he was a throw in? He contributed more than someone like Dez Lewis.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

So what if he was a throw in? He contributed more than someone like Dez Lewis.

 

You probably did too so that's an easy hurdle to clear.

[TigerJ]

We've been through the discussion of Buffalo's receivers being open or not.  One stat that may be relevant is the fact that Tyrod holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league.  Ostensibly, he does this because he has trouble anticipating his receivers moves.  Many times he seems reluctant to throw until he sees the receiver is open.  The problem is with the quality of DBs in the league, receivers are rarely open for a long time.  If you wait until they are open, then wind up to throw, you have wasted valuable time, and the window of openness for your receiver has come and gone.  I wonder if this is what is happening to Tyrod.   In other words, maybe the tig windows are of Tyrod's own making because he hesitates too long to throw the football.

[CaptnCoke11]

7 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

 

 

But hey he can scramble for some yards so it’s all good.  

 

 

Makes me wann barf watching stuff like that.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

So what if he was a throw in? He contributed more than someone like Dez Lewis.

 

 

The point is that there was no demand for him in a league where teams are carrying 6 receivers and using them.

 

He's a taint.

 

He's a "big slot".......which most teams have no use for those.......they want quick and fast slot receivers......OR they want to put a TE in the slot who they can move inside to help in the run game.

 

And Matthews is simply not quick or fast enough.....or a size/contested catch guy like Benjamin........ to play the x of z effectively.

 

  

 

 

Edited February 10, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[downunderbill]

Is throwing it away on third down a stat? Tyrod's biggest problem is that he has the situational awareness of Helen Keller, and it seems to be getting worse as time goes on. 

Edited February 10, 2018 by downunderbill

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is the best paragraph to describe Tyrod. Maybe on his next team he'll start taking more chances with the ball. He certainly could keep working on that.

This I agree with. In my opinion, the very BEST Taylor looked all season was, ironically to me, the second half of the Charger game. He really didn't have a need to be ultra conservative, flung the ball around more freely, took off running using his athletic ability more.

 

If we could have seen him like that more of his Buffalo career I would like to keep him. However, he truly is what he is at this point. Wish him the very best, class act guy. Just doesn't have that clutch ability.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is another one of those things that’s a shoulder shrug for me. Tyrod has always been pretty accurate. I don’t think that anyone ever debated that. That was never the issue though. I’m not surprised when I see that he was relatively accurate or that the receivers didn’t get separation. That was never a part of the conversation. Those were givens.

 

Now if we saw some advanced stats that said he threw early or that the receivers were great route runners I’d be intersted. These stats to me are a little “water is wet.” 

[Paulus]

How many 45 yards games this year does this "while he does have some flaws" QB have?... Nuff said. 

Edited February 10, 2018 by Paulus

[downunderbill]

7 minutes ago, Paulus said:

How many 45 yards games this year does this "while he does have some flaws" QB have?... Nuff said. 

 

1 is too many for a starting QB, no matter how many yards you rush for.