Jeremiah has us taking a DT at 28 in his latest mock

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again...........what position do you think promises more immediate help that also promises *comparable* long term value than WR?

 

It's easy to come up with a reason to not draft any position.   What's difficult is to compare and separate the options.

 

I understand that we have people who are borderline frantic about patching every hole on paper...........not saying that's you but anyone who thinks that drafting a center or safety in round 1, for instance,  is a good use of such a limited resource(1st round pick) is obviously coming from an immediately needy perspective.    

No one is saying don’t draft a position. The only people saying don’t draft a position are the WR train people.

 

I think any of DT, edge, WR are on the table at 28. It’s hard to predict immediate impact picking 28th. All 3 could have immediate impact if they hit on the player.

Edited March 19 by Buffalo_Stampede

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

No one is saying don’t draft a position. The only people saying don’t draft a position are the WR train people.

 

I think any of DT, edge, WR are on the table at 28. 

Exactly the only people who aren’t reciprocating are the WR at 28 or bust people. This team has many other needs. Our defense just got gutted in FA. I’m not even against WR at 28. I’m against the people who tell me if has to be 1 of like 4 guys or I’ll still be upset. People setting themselves up for high amounts of disappointment

 

There are guys like McConkey or Wilson, or Malachi Corley that will get bashed relentlessly here if they get taken because they’re not big. I totally get that Diggs is old and Gabe Davis just left but they also did just take Kincaid last year to be a top receiving option. They will take a guy early I have little doubt about that but it’s very possible it’s not at 28 

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

How is drafting a big X not a full an immediate need position. Again, I asked why McConkey would be a bad pick and the vast majority called him a slot when he’s an ideal replacement for Diggs in the future. 
 

Taking a DT isn’t just filling ms immediate need. We have 2 guys in the roster one of which tore his pec and is 33 years old and is likely here for 1 year before he’s cut. Take Chop Robinson is not an immediate need as we now have 5 DEs with game experience. 
 

Yea DeJean is one of those guys and he’s maybe by a round better than any other Safety on the board. 
 

You’re right there sounds like nothing more gameplan than I like 3 players and if I don’t get them then idk what to do. Do you think Brandon Beane is sitting there with his big board and telling everyone yup we’re only looking at WR here at 28. 
 

I don’t want a tackle because I think we have an in-house option in RVD who played really well last year when called upon. 

 

 

 

Yeah if someone's philosophy is 3 players or bust at #28 six weeks before the draft then that's a narrow approach.

 

And if there was a pass rushing DE at #28 that I thought projected to become a star and make a difference in beating Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in the playoffs the next couple of seasons that would be great.

 

I don't see that in Chop Robinson.   He's an OLB with a ton of holes in his game at this stage.   In a good edge draft he's a 2nd or 3rd round pick largely based on his combine numbers.   Upside but not a lot on tape to love.  

 

Dejean is a safety and it's just too easy to find cheap talent at safety so using a $30M aav kinda' asset like a first round pick on a safety makes no sense to me.

 

I like VanDemark too but it's a limited sample size.   Young LT's are $30M worthy assets.   The draft is about building the foundation of your team long term.

 

 As that applies to the big X receiver position.........well that's also a $30M worthy position as well.   The fact that the Bills have only expended 1 pick in the first 3 rounds on a WR in Beane's 6 drafts(the 1st traded for Diggs) just so happens to have lined up a premium position with an immediate need.

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah if someone's philosophy is 3 players or bust at #28 six weeks before the draft then that's a narrow approach.

 

And if there was a pass rushing DE at #28 that I thought projected to become a star and make a difference in beating Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in the playoffs the next couple of seasons that would be great.

 

I don't see that in Chop Robinson.   He's an OLB with a ton of holes in his game at this stage.   In a good edge draft he's a 2nd or 3rd round pick largely based on his combine numbers.   Upside but not a lot on tape to love.  

 

Dejean is a safety and it's just too easy to find cheap talent at safety so using a $30M aav kinda' asset like a first round pick on a safety makes no sense to me.

 

I like VanDemark too but it's a limited sample size.   Young LT's are $30M worthy assets.   The draft is about building the foundation of your team long term.

 

 As that applies to the big X receiver position.........well that's also a $30M worthy position as well.   The fact that the Bills have only expended 1 pick in the first 3 rounds on a WR in Beane's 6 drafts(the 1st traded for Diggs) just so happens to have lined up a premium position with an immediate need.

 

So tell me who those guys are at 28 you would be okay with at WR? I want more than Thomas, Legette, and Mitchell which always seems to be the only 3 I hear.

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

No one is saying don’t draft a position. The only people saying don’t draft a position are the WR train people.

 

I think any of DT, edge, WR are on the table at 28. It’s hard to predict immediate impact picking 28th. All 3 could have immediate impact if they hit on the player.

 

To be clear I am definitely saying don't draft some positions.

 

Safety........off-ball LB........DT 1T.......Guard......Center......RB.

 

Never-ever in round 1.   If that philosophy causes me to miss on a very good player at those positions so be it...........I will have to settle for paying on the open market a fraction of the market value of a premium position.

 

Knowing QB is off the board due to Allen I can always get behind the right Pass Rusher, WR, OT.

 

CB is becoming a tweener as a primo position as the salaries stagnate and as defense's make efforts to protect CB's with more safety help.    If you can snag a great cover CB who can also play zone very well and you can maximize them within your scheme they are a primo.

 

As far as not being able to predict immediate impact..........in general you can predict that the incoming WR class will outperform the DL class by a substantial margin.

 

That's been the trend.

 

The passing game has proven to be an area where more and more kids are arriving pro ready due to massive amounts of reps that are put in on the 7-on-7 level of the game.   Pass rush still remains a position that tends to take much longer to get up to speed at the pro level.  

[Low Positive]

You think that's bad? Kiper has the Bills taking T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

So tell me who those guys are at 28 you would be okay with at WR? I want more than Thomas, Legette, and Mitchell which always seems to be the only 3 I hear.

 

 

Worthy as well.

 

4 is A LOT of players at one position.   

 

I think if you take any of the rest of the WR that are bunched up around or behind them you probably better plan on taking one in both rounds. 

 

It's a GREAT draft for WR.   It's also excellent for OL.   Draft to the strengths of a draft.   I don't buy into the idea that a strong draft at a position means you can just wait.    If it's strong, get a good one early and then get another later.    

 

Not a good draft at all for DL.   I had high hopes for this DT class a couple of years ago but the top prospects have really underperformed and there hasn't been even a normal amount of last-season risers.    Definitely a bunch of guys who could use the motivation of only being day 3 picks.    

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

To be clear I am definitely saying don't draft some positions.

 

Safety........off-ball LB........DT 1T.......Guard......Center......RB.

 

Never-ever in round 1.   If that philosophy causes me to miss on a very good player at those positions so be it...........I will have to settle for paying on the open market a fraction of the market value of a premium position.

 

Knowing QB is off the board due to Allen I can always get behind the right Pass Rusher, WR, OT.

 

CB is becoming a tweener as a primo position as the salaries stagnate and as defense's make efforts to protect CB's with more safety help.    If you can snag a great cover CB who can also play zone very well and you can maximize them within your scheme they are a primo.

 

As far as not being able to predict immediate impact..........in general you can predict that the incoming WR class will outperform the DL class by a substantial margin.

 

That's been the trend.

 

The passing game has proven to be an area where more and more kids are arriving pro ready due to massive amounts of reps that are put in on the 7-on-7 level of the game.   Pass rush still remains a position that tends to take much longer to get up to speed at the pro level.  

I think what you said is pretty spot on. 
 

Which is why it matters who the players are we’re talking about taking at 28 for DT. I clearly stated Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton. Laiatu Latu Is the edge I’m looking at. If any of those 3 are there then you draft them.

 

Brian Thomas is the easy pick at WR for me. After that it gets a little more complicated as to who to take at 28. You’re probably taking the best WR on the board. I don’t think Chop Robinson is in the group I mentioned. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

DT is a great idea. I don’t understand why fans hate DL so much.

 

A truly elite 1DT next to Ed Oliver would enable Oliver to take the next leap forward in his development and become the internal disruptor he was in college.

 

If a real #1 WR does not fall to us in the 1st round, I like the idea.

[Fan in Chicago]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't disagree with what you are saying about it not being a vacuum, I do however definitely disagree that WR is our weakest position.  Don't get me wrong, I 100% want WR first, even a trade up, we need a succession plan to Diggs and this draft has too much talent.  

 

But, we are definitely weaker at other positions right now.  Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir is a pretty strong trio of WR's while we are missing starters all over our defense.  

 

 

Again, I am on your side...I too want a WR and I am hoping we go get Thomas or Odunze if he somehow slips to 20...or if not maybe trade back a short bit from 28 to add another 3rd and then take one of Coleman, Leggette, Franklin, McConkey, or Pearsall near the top of the 2nd.  

 

I still think WR is most likely our first pick, and hope so too.  Just saying, it wont surprise me if we either wait until the 2nd or make a trade back first and then go WR either.  

 

 

Fair points but the way I look at it, which position group which is currently weak can positively impact the outcome of games if filled? Imo, it's an outside WR who will complement the current group of receivers and then allow a broader set of plays almost impossible for an opposing team to defend. If we hit on such a WR in the draft, even if he has 50-60 catches, those will change the nature of our passing game. 

As I said a few days ago, we have gone down the road of beating the chiefs by loading up on defense. Yet we failed every time it mattered. Time to take a different strategy and complement our best asset JA17

Edited March 20 by Fan in Chicago

[RyanC883]

I’d be okay with that DT at 28 assuming WRs through Thomas are  gone.   Not really any other though. 

Edited March 20 by RyanC883

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Fair points but the way I look at it, which position group which is currently weak can positively impact the outcome of games if filled? Imo, it's an outside WR who will complement the current group of receivers and then allow a broader set of plays almost impossible for an opposing team to defend. If we hit on such a WR in the draft, even if he has 50-60 catches, those will change the nature of our passing game. 

As I said a few days ago, we have gone down the road of beating the chiefs by loading up on defense. Yet we failed every time it mattered. Time to take a different strategy and complement our best asset JA17

Don't disagree at all with your assessment about another WR, but I think people are under estimating Shakir still and also under valuing Samuel a bit.  Diggs, Shakir, Samuel along with Kincaid and Cook gives Allen already a pretty strong arsenal of weapons to throw to, not to mention Cooks run game.  

 

But like I said, I am totally on board going WR early, my only caveat is I don't think we are desperate either to where reaching over better prospects is a sound strategy if their guy isn't there at 28.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

We drafted an  interior DL at NINE.

 

That's absurd.

 

 

You do know that DT's go around the area we picked Ed Oliver all the time, right?

 

2023: Pick 9 - Jalen Carter 

2022: Pick 13 - Jordan Davis

2020: Pick 7 - Derrick Brown

2019: Pick 3: Quinnen Williams

2019: Pick 9 - Ed Oliver 

2019: Pick 13 - Christian Wilkins

2018: Pick 12 - Vita Vea

2018: Pick 13 - Daron Payne 

2016: Pick 12 - Sheldon Rankins

2015: Pick 6 - Leonard Williams

2015: Pick 12 - Danny Shelton

2014: Pick 13 - Aaron Donald

 

You're treating Defensive Tackle as if it were Running Back. It's a valuable position. There's a reason why they've been so expensive this offseason. It isn't absurd at all to take a DT in the Top 10 if that's where they're ranked on the Draft Board. And Ed Oliver was a Top 10 talent in 2019.

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

That's not the point I was making

 

The roi on dline has not been there. Time to take a different approach

Crazy thought: What if - and I’m just spitballing here - we leaned into our elite QB and gave him the help he needs to maximize his effectiveness? 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

WR is strong deep into the 2nd.

 

No it isn't. By our 2nd round pick we'll be choosing from the likes of Malachi Corley and Brenden Rice. Fine players that would be decent picks at that spot. But not likely difference makers. Do the easy thing and take a WR first. It is by far the most likely choice to have a meaningful impact on the team.

 

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Are you talking about Harrison Phillips who was picked in the late 3rd?  

 

Harrison Phillips was drafted higher than any WR under this regime. Think about that.

 

Edited March 20 by HappyDays

[Jay_Fixit]

People caring about mock drafts.

 

 

LOL.

[CaptnCoke11]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

People caring about mock drafts.

 

 

LOL.

It’s pathetic how much stock people put into these.  I swear they act like this is what’s going to happen.  

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Gigs said:

Fans have no idea how deep the WR class is

 

No. Some fans are misunderstanding what "deep" means. It means that at every single pick we make there will likely be an available WR whose talent matches the value of that pick. It doesn't mean 1st round talents will be available late in the 2nd round, etc. If we want a 1st round talent we still have to draft them in the 1st round. Knowing that 3rd round WR talents will be available at our 3rd round pick (which isn't always the case) isn't an excuse to skip out on the top end talent. If anything it's an excuse to double dip at the position by the end of day two.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

When the draft is deep at one of those positions but has a steep drop off at the other, then the one with the drop off he will often give more value too there because he can still find a quality player later at the other position.

 

We don't need a "quality player" at WR. There are plenty of those available all the time. We need a difference maker. I think this is where the entire disconnect lies. A certain percentage of the fanbase thinks that the "need" at WR is just getting a starting caliber body, which is why that side of the fanbase is using Curtis Samuel and 2nd-3rd round prospects as an excuse to draft some other position high. But that's not the need. We need a difference maker who can play outside who has true #1 upside, and unlike a lot of years we have a real chance to draft that caliber of WR near the end of the 1st round because of the overall strength of the draft class. Passing up that opportunity to draft another small 3T would be a franchise shattering decision and I'm shocked that anybody in the fanbase would even preemptively defend it.

[buffaloboyinATL]

7 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Darius Robinson feels like a possible pick if we don't go WR. As has the height we like at DE but can also move inside on passing downs. Yet again until.roster filled out tough call what we draft first and of course who's available.

Funny.  I was in my car a few weeks ago listening my to NFL radio and I heard an interview with Darius Robinson along with discussions about his background etc…. 
 

I wrote myself a note that said “Darius Robinson- I want him- do research”. 
 

I am not sure exactly when he will be drafted, but needless to say, I would love to see him on our team.  

[Bookie Man]

Edge and DT, whether we like it or not are just as big a need as WR. 

[PrimeTime101]

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

No they haven’t invested draft picks on DTs. 

So Ed Oliver is what.. just a fart in the wind? 

[QLBillsFan]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

The guy is a 3T and not what we need at DT lol

Yes he has a similar skill set to Oliver. We need more depth behind Jones as later in the draft DT’s are plentiful in the Oliver mode. Sweat and the big DT from Texas AM are the other DT’s who fit in the Jones mode. 2nd or 3rd round. Then in 4th-6th get the other DT. Just my thoughts 💭 

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No it isn't. By our 2nd round pick we'll be choosing from the likes of Malachi Corley and Brenden Rice. Fine players that would be decent picks at that spot. But not likely difference makers. Do the easy thing and take a WR first. It is by far the most likely choice to have a meaningful impact on the team.

 

 

Harrison Phillips was drafted higher than any WR under this regime. Think about that.

 

I think that you have to count the draft choice used to acquire Stefan Diggs as being used on a WR.  When Allen was young, they filled in at WR with vets to help him out.  
 

I do hope that they take a WR early, but they should do that because there is a need at WR and hopefully there is a good WR available at their pick - they should not do it just because they haven’t recently drafted any WR early.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

No it isn't. By our 2nd round pick we'll be choosing from the likes of Malachi Corley and Brenden Rice. Fine players that would be decent picks at that spot. But not likely difference makers. Do the easy thing and take a WR first. It is by far the most likely choice to have a meaningful impact on the team.

 

 

Harrison Phillips was drafted higher than any WR under this regime. Think about that.

 

Don’t wait until our pick. Go up and get a WR in the mid 2nd in that scenario.

 

They haven’t drafted WR high because they hit on the Diggs trade, hit on John Brown, hit on Beasley, hit on Davis, hit on Shakir. Josh has had weapons. The years they really needed that WR early it just didn’t unfold how they probably wanted to, 2022 they really needed a slot. But they still got Shakir later in 2022. Then they spent a 1st on Kincaid.

 

When they absolutely need a WR they tend to add multiple. Diggs and Davis in 2020, Hodgins late. They will spend a 1st or 2nd on a WR this year. So in the year they lose Gabe Davis they will have added Curtis Samuel and a 1st or 2nd round WR and probably another later. A year after using a 1st on Kincaid. 
 

They know what they’re doing. I would probably say after QB that OL, DL, and WR/TE are the position groups you need to solidify. WR/TE will be set after the draft. OL is set. I’m not sure about DL.

Edited March 20 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Bill from NYC]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There are always people who want to throw a first round pick at any perceived position of need.    Even if it's devalued.   There is a very vocal minority that often suggests RB in round 1 every year so any position outside of ST only will please some people if it's a perceived immediate need.

So true. I've seen folks call for a 1st round safety. Amazing.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Uh oh, do I sense weakness in your leader?

 

 

[nosejob]

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Zuerlein has us giving a 4th to go up 2 spots for Latu.  NFL.com pro comparison: TJ Watt

[GunnerBill]

I think Johnny Newton is a steal at #28, I really do. He is a top 10 talent in this class for me. I absolutely love him. 

 

However, I will make the same point I have made over and over.... the second best and most impactful player on the Bills in 2023 was Ed Oliver. He played 70% of the snaps and when you have paid a DL that kind of money you need them to be on the field in that range. Newton is a 3T. Can he play some 1T, sure. Hell Ed Oliver played a ton of 1T his second season with the Bills when Star opted out because the other DTs sucked against the run. But that isn't where you will see him to best effect. Newton can be a stud 3T in the NFL. But I don't think the Bills can afford to spend their 1st round pick on the second most settled position on the team after Quarterback. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Conspicuous absence on that list there

 

 

He is two spots off the bottom of that list and yet just outplayed half those above him. 

13 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Zuerlein has us giving a 4th to go up 2 spots for Latu.  NFL.com pro comparison: TJ Watt

 

I am not into trading up for him, but if Latu got to #28 I'd pick him. 

6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

So Ed Oliver is what.. just a fart in the wind? 

 

His point was in 7 drafts they have drafted exactly two defensive tackles - Oliver and Phillips. That is because they have spent way too many FA $$s there IMO.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

16 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Zuerlein has us giving a 4th to go up 2 spots for Latu.  NFL.com pro comparison: TJ Watt

Gonna step out on a limb here and say he wont be TJ Watt

 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Uh oh, do I sense weakness in your leader?

 

 

 

Not all, but the majority of those guys are 3Ts. We have our stud 3T. So taking a DT at #28 is either taking a guy who is taking snaps off one of your best players (that's not wise) or you are taking a 1T. And a 1T in the first round is just bad allocation of resources. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not all, but the majority of those guys are 3Ts. We have our stud 3T. So taking a DT at #28 is either taking a guy who is taking snaps off one of your best players (that's not wise) or you are taking a 1T. And a 1T in the first round is just bad allocation of resources. 

As exciting as pairing Newton and Oliver even on passing downs only, yeah, I just can't justifying the pick. Gotta be WR 1a followed by DE 1b.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

There’s an argument for this. The vast majority of top DTs in the league were first rounders, while top WRs have been drafted later, in many cases. Maybe I’m still scarred from Sammy “flat earth” Watkins 

[YoloinOhio]

14 hours ago, LEBills said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-3-0

 

link in case anyone wants it

I hope Marv does not go to the jets!

[T master]

14 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Sure, why not?

 

Not like we haven't bargain-basemented the WR position up till now.

 

Can't ever have enough DL.

 

 

Sounds like your putting a awful lot of faith in the WR room they have this year with those they have picked up !!

 

I hope they can get Legget in the draft i believe he would be the perfect fit here on this offense but if he's not there & there is a close to elite talent at their pick i would rather they get that player than reach .

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, T master said:

 

Sounds like your putting a awful lot of faith in the WR room they have this year with those they have picked up !!

 

I hope they can get Legget in the draft i believe he would be the perfect fit here on this offense but if he's not there & there is a close to elite talent at their pick i would rather they get that player than reach .

 

Sarcasm detector malfunctioning

 

[nosejob]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Johnny Newton is a steal at #28, I really do. He is a top 10 talent in this class for me. I absolutely love him. 

 

However, I will make the same point I have made over and over.... the second best and most impactful player on the Bills in 2023 was Ed Oliver. He played 70% of the snaps and when you have paid a DL that kind of money you need them to be on the field in that range. Newton is a 3T. Can he play some 1T, sure. Hell Ed Oliver played a ton of 1T his second season with the Bills when Star opted out because the other DTs sucked against the run. But that isn't where you will see him to best effect. Newton can be a stud 3T in the NFL. But I don't think the Bills can afford to spend their 1st round pick on the second most settled position on the team after Quarterback. 

 

 

 

 

He is two spots off the bottom of that list and yet just outplayed half those above him. 

 

I am not into trading up for him, but if Latu got to #28 I'd pick him. 

 

His point was in 7 drafts they have drafted exactly two defensive tackles - Oliver and Phillips. That is because they have spent way too many FA $$s there IMO.

Zuerlein had us trading to 26 with TB for a 4th and if he has the ability to be T.J. Watt then, no argument from me. However, if let's say Chop or Darius Robinson is sitting there, I'm looking to trade back with AZ. and pick up pick 71.

 

Then, I'm all for trading next year's 1st to say GB for 41 and 88, which would give us...

rd.2 35,41, 60

rd.3  71, 88

rd.4 128, 133

rd 5  3 picks

rd.6  3 picks

 

Beane could really make hay and he absolutely has to. We cannot sit on our thumbs with nothing from 60 to 128

Edited March 20 by nosejob

[ProcessImproverMan]

Seeing the refs largely allow offensive lines to get away with murder during the playoffs where top defensive linemen are often neutered by uncalled holdings, go wide receiver. We need to take advantage of a league that favors offense and finally give Allen multiple legitimate threats at receiving core. Drafting another defensive lineman in the first who will be neutered in the playoffs is the wrong move. Go wide receiver first and make defenses really fear our offense. 

[philholbroo]

They may want to take dl, but I think one of their biggest worries will be keeping someone off chiefs. barring they don't trade up ahead of bills again.

[Don Otreply]

No worries, Just wait, it will be a safety as our first pick next week…,