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WR then BPA


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Normally I am not an advocate of drafting "BPA".  I think most GMs that say they do lie anyways. At best it is usually BPA at a position of need.

However this year may be the year to just sit back and let the draft come to you. 

As of today, the only starting spot open is Safety.  That may yet be addressed in FA but even if not they can take one on day 2 with a little maneuvering.  They can justify drafting backups and future replacements at most levels. 

I'd be perfectly happy if Beane traded around to get the deep speed WR with size this team lacks. Then just take BPA the rest of the way. You could make an argument for just about every position even taking a backup QB that might have trade value in a year or two. OL, DL, RB, DB, and you can always use a backup LB for teams. Pick up a punter on day 3. 

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Just now, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

That's certainly possible if there is a run on WR. Might also depend on whether Diggs was injured or not. They likely have a better idea than us why his numbers dropped. 

If 2024 is his last year in Buffalo I have to believe they draft WR in the first round. 

 

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40 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

 

Me too. If a receiver they like is there at #28 they will take them. But 36 hours ago I said I thought the most likely outcome was the best receiver on their board at #28. I don't necessarily think that now. If their best receiver available is 10 or 12 spots lower on their board they won't pick him.

 

I think defensive line is very much in play and I think even DB is. I have long thought Cooper DeJean might be their kind of kid but had dismissed it. Now, looking at the roster, if they think he is a day 1 starter at safety..... I mean I would not love it but I think the odds have increased compared to 2 days ago.

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Wr then safety. If they have Samuel in the slot to go with Diggs and the first rounder outside this offense will be cooking this year. Defense will never be on the field and will play with leads all year 

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2 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

 

no way.  Samuel wasn't even the BPA on his crappy Washington team.

 

Get someone better and younger under a rookie contract.

 

 

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With Beane expecting a 3rd round comp pick and ending up with a 4 after moving their original 3rd rounder in the Rasul trade...this may very well be a year that we see Beane trade down and out of round 1 IMO. Recoup that 3rd to move back to the mid 30s to mid 40s.  If a WR isn't there they absolutely love, this is what I'm seeing happening (as long as a trade partner is there. 

 

Move back a bit and grab one of the WRs that slip out of round 1 and a DT like Sweat if he's there in round 2...then find talent the rest of the draft. 

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It really depends how the 27 teams in front of us go. Suddenly the Chargers have lost their top-2 WRs, meaning they now likely covet a WR ahead of us where a few days ago it was far less likely. Tampa was at risk of losing their best WR but offered him a big payday to stay, but he’s 31 at the start of the season and will eventually need to be replaced. We know the Cards are likely taking one, and the Titans just overpaid big time for Ridley, likely taking them out of consideration as they have other needs early on to address.

 

i can see the following teams in front of us possibly going WR: Arizona, Chargers, Giants, Jets (though I bet OL is addressed rd 1), Broncos, maybe Colts, maybe Bengals, and Houston. Then there’s the Chiefs who have fewer needs than most, but WR being one of them doesn’t rule out a trade up for them to slide in front of us.

 

That’s 8-9 teams who could be looking WR in round 1, and even if 2-3 of them listed don’t go that direction, that leaves 6 that very well could.
 

Harrison, Nabors, Odunze, Thomas Jr, AD Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy make the top-7 options currently. Assuming a worst-case scenario and the Bills have a very bad night 1 of the draft and all these guys are gone before 28, I can easily see trading back or getting another BPA at a position of need. McD would be salivating if DeJean or Chop fell as a result. I’m not advocating for this, I’m just keeping a real perspective on what COULD happen.

 

At the end of the day, whatever happens, we need to leave the first 2 rounds with at least one WR. Not to replace Gabe, but to replace Diggs. I’d rather it be round 1, but there’s always a chance it doesn’t happen that way. 

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Bills are light at DT and S.  I could see a veteran DT and S signing in FA.  Going into the draft they then could go WR, DT, S, CB and DE.  I hate saying this because I want a WR, but I think Beane might go DL first and then WR.  

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Samuel signing was so they don’t have to reach.  Really depends on how the draft plays out.  Which is smart. 
I think the OL is set. They get bigger w Edward’s at guard.  I think the line will be better next year. McGovern is more athletic than Morse and having them play next to each other had some problems. Quoting Marino here. 

Edited by nedboy7
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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

no way.  Samuel wasn't even the BPA on his crappy Washington team.

 

Get someone better and younger under a rookie contract.

 

 

With the addition of Samuel and the other receiver we signed we are officially up to our eye brows in slot type receivers, we so desperately need an X / boundary / speed guy as our WR2, I sure hope we don’t go all Billsey and pretend we are all set at WR, talk about hanging Allen out to dry for yet another season…, 

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4 hours ago, Pete said:

 

Maybe maybe not.

I admit I have a soft spot for Diggs because he had the balls to call out McDermott on his choice of OC. He has more heart and drive than most on the team. 

But north of 30 for a WR can be a quick downhill trajectory.  So you may be right. I'm really hoping he has a big bounce back year. He's been one of my favorites.

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Given the depth of 1st round talent at WR this year, BPA will likely be WR.

 

However, we know Beane never really does BPA, but instead trades up for a guy he likes. Hopefully it's WR, but given the Bills historical emphasis on DL, I wouldn't be surprised if they chase a DT.  We're thin behind Jones and Oliver

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4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

That's certainly possible if there is a run on WR. Might also depend on whether Diggs was injured or not. They likely have a better idea than us why his numbers dropped. 

If 2024 is his last year in Buffalo I have to believe they draft WR in the first round. 

 

i'm sorry i don't want to be a putz but.. Diggs #'s dropped because we were spreading the ball around, plus badly thrown balls by josh!

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5 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

 

I haven't even looked at the top 50 players available in the draft this year usually never do just listen to those that follow it closer than i do & look at a couple of players in the process . I've heard that this year has a lot of really good WR talent available & with the amount of QB's that could be taken 1 may fall to the Bills.

 

Seeing that Diggs is getting up in age & with his fall off in production if that is to continue which i don't think it will but could i would think getting 1 of the better WR prospects should be priority 1 this draft . They do need some D line help & that could be a possibility if the best 1 in the draft is there to go into the future .

 

I trust Beane has been wearing it out & hasn't been getting a lot of sleep this time of year between watching tape, talking to his draft people on staff & with McD so i'm sure they will do what;s best for the Bills moving forward & get the players that will best help n both sides of the ball ...

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3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

no way.  Samuel wasn't even the BPA on his crappy Washington team.

 

Get someone better and younger under a rookie contract.

 

 

Exactly,  I like the Samuel signing but I'm not madly in love with it. It's imperative that we hit on a very good 1st round wr to replace Diggs in 2yrs. And next April we'll probably have to draft Curtis Samuel's eventual replacement. Like Weather Man said you need these guys on 5 yr rookie deals for need & cost.

Edited by LABILLBACKER
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6 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

I have that same feeling. If there's a WR run, I'd rather they take BPA at another position with #28 than Worthy for example.

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7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Normally I am not an advocate of drafting "BPA".  I think most GMs that say they do lie anyways. At best it is usually BPA at a position of need.

However this year may be the year to just sit back and let the draft come to you. 

As of today, the only starting spot open is Safety.  That may yet be addressed in FA but even if not they can take one on day 2 with a little maneuvering.  They can justify drafting backups and future replacements at most levels. 

I'd be perfectly happy if Beane traded around to get the deep speed WR with size this team lacks. Then just take BPA the rest of the way. You could make an argument for just about every position even taking a backup QB that might have trade value in a year or two. OL, DL, RB, DB, and you can always use a backup LB for teams. Pick up a punter on day 3. 

Also, perceived BPA is not BPA!  No one knows who the best available player is.

 

IF they did, the draft selection list each year would be a lot different to what it is.

 

 

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6 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I have a feeling that, after signing Samuel, that they could go BPA in the first round, and take a WR with their 2nd or 4th pick.

I think waiting until late 4th for WR would leave them with not much.  It is a strong class, but the top 12 or more will likely be gone by the end of the 2nd, surely by late 4th.  

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2 hours ago, Sgt. Ski said:

i'm sorry i don't want to be a putz but.. Diggs #'s dropped because we were spreading the ball around, plus badly thrown balls by josh!

 

 

come on...how much effort did you put into this take?

 

#'s drop?  He had essentially the same targets he has had every year with the Bills.  A big chunk of his yards came in the first 6 weeks.  Then, despite tons of targets the resto f the season, he couldn't produce.

 

Josh's fault for the drops?  that's pretty funny.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sgt. Ski said:

i'm sorry i don't want to be a putz but.. Diggs #'s dropped because we were spreading the ball around, plus badly thrown balls by josh!

Like the KC game ? Where Diggs dropped the excellent pass for Josh at a critical juncture of the game? 

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7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Normally I am not an advocate of drafting "BPA".  I think most GMs that say they do lie anyways. At best it is usually BPA at a position of need.

However this year may be the year to just sit back and let the draft come to you. 

As of today, the only starting spot open is Safety.  That may yet be addressed in FA but even if not they can take one on day 2 with a little maneuvering.  They can justify drafting backups and future replacements at most levels. 

I'd be perfectly happy if Beane traded around to get the deep speed WR with size this team lacks. Then just take BPA the rest of the way. You could make an argument for just about every position even taking a backup QB that might have trade value in a year or two. OL, DL, RB, DB, and you can always use a backup LB for teams. Pick up a punter on day 3. 

We need better D lineman who aren’t in their 30’s.  
 

Let’s get the best WR available in the 1st round and then a variety of S DT and DE’s.  
 

Late round O lineman are an absolute waste.   Better signing free agents like Ryan Bates for O line depth after they are seasoned to the NFL.  

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2 hours ago, Sgt. Ski said:

i'm sorry i don't want to be a putz but.. Diggs #'s dropped because we were spreading the ball around, plus badly thrown balls by josh!

Shoulder injury on Allen’s throwing arm certainly didn’t help, but you are correct in that Josh could stand to tighten up his game a bit, 

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4 hours ago, Sgt. Ski said:

i'm sorry i don't want to be a putz but.. Diggs #'s dropped because we were spreading the ball around, plus badly thrown balls by josh!

Oh I know Josh missed him multiple times. 

I think he can easily catch 100 balls next year even with a more balanced offense with Cook, Kincaid, and Knox. 

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When you bake in positional value I think Wr will be the pick followed by Edge then Interior dline.  I would go Oline before safety in rd 1.  No one is worthy it at saftey until end of day 2.  Comes down to whether one of the Bills top rated edge defender is available.  If they are I think that is the pick.  I expect they will be gone and the best player will be wr.  If a run starts at WR maybe they go Murphy if available or possibly Jackson Powers as center/guard.  

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3 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Just a hunch, but if Cooper DeJean is there at 28, McD will knock out anyone in the war-room who tries to select anyone but DeJean.   There is your new safety for the next ten years. 

 

I have the same hunch.

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I think the signing of Samuel really narrows down the WR candidate field in the draft.  They now have three receivers without great size and nobody with a strong body and above average height and speed.  I would think that makes guys like Worthy, McConkey, Franklin and Wilson less attractive to the Bills.  If they really want a big X, it would seem to come down to only a few who fit that description: Mitchell, Legette, Coleman, maybe Polk or Walker or Rice.

 

I yield to others who know how to evaluate tape better than I do.  What are your thoughts?

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have the same hunch.

What do you think of DeJean?  If he has to play S in the NFL, would it be a little rich for one at 28 given that the league seems to not want to pay safeties?

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