CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

If this has been discussed, I missed it.  It's an interesting idea.  I could see situations/certain opponents when using this scheme could work.

Taron can do so much already that it seems plausible.

I've suggested moving Johnson before.  People bash me about it.  I like it because safety is a more important position.  It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety.  It's been a luxury to have him in that position.  

 

If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3.  

 

I think Johnson would be a great safety.  

Edited March 17 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment.

 

I don't agree that there's a talent imbalance.  Torrence, Cook, Kincaid in the past three years.  

 

But I definitely agree about the long hard look.  

 

I just quoted a bit, but the whole post was excellent.  Thanks.  

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I've suggested moving Johnson before.  People bash me about it.  I like it because safety is amore important position.  It requires tackling ability, coverage skulls and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety.  It's been a luxury to have him in that position.  

 

If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3.  

 

I think Johnson would be a great safety.  

 

I'm more intrigued about the possibility of Taron moving in and out of a safety spot.  He seems so versatile that he could start to split

time between the 2 depending on down and distance and opponents' offensive tendencies.

 

The 4-3-4 vs 4-2-5 argument has always been about taking Taron out.  This could be a compromise to that point.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'm more intrigued about the possibility of Taron moving in and out of a safety spot.  He seems so versatile that he could start to split

time between the 2 depending on down and distance and opponents' offensive tendencies.

 

The 4-3-4 vs 4-2-5 argument has always been about taking Taron out.  This could be a compromise to that point.

The problem with the compromise is it upsets the safety chemistry.  I think if he moves he will be more or less full time. He would need all the safety reps in practice, too.

[QCity]

Reading this thread it's apparent that many have never seen Samuel play. A lot of people are taking his stats and measurables and trying to contort them into a version of himself that they want him to be, rather than what he is - a slot and Z receiver that will also take snaps out of the backfield. He is not a Davis replacement and he is not a boundary receiver.  There is still a big hole at the X receiver position that is going to have to be filled with a high draft pick.

[3rdand12]

On 3/16/2024 at 2:58 PM, Mat68 said:

Oh no a guy that eats vs man and can get open under 10 yards.  

But YAC ?

That's what Bills really need. Can Brady do that with Samuel and crew?

Cole B could do that all day on one leg ! 😉

But yea , this is a True YAC guy with his skill set

Get him some space Joe !

[BananaB]

14 minutes ago, QCity said:

Reading this thread it's apparent that many have never seen Samuel play. A lot of people are taking his stats and measurables and trying to contort them into a version of himself that they want him to be, rather than what he is - a slot and Z receiver that will also take snaps out of the backfield. He is not a Davis replacement and he is not a boundary receiver.  There is still a big hole at the X receiver position that is going to have to be filled with a high draft pick.

A slow deep threat who can’t catch won’t be hard to replace. Davis was lucky to keep his roll for so long after so many poor performances. Having more weapons underneath in Brady’s offense seems more important. Guys who can get open quick. 

[MasterStrategist]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The problem is we have constantly thrown ample resources at the defense, and they still fall apart in the playoffs year after year. I agree that championship teams typically have better defensive showings than what the Bills have fielded in the playoffs. But it's getting to a point where you have to look beyond the players. We keep switching out the players on defense but the result is always the same. Against the Chiefs this year the defense arguably turned in its worst playoff performance of the McDermott era when accounting for the caliber of the opponent. So it is getting worse, not better.

 

I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment.

 

On offense I have felt that the problem is the exact opposite of what I just described. The offense under Allen regularly shows up in the playoffs and performs above its regular season standard. I haven't had many qualms with offensive coaching in those games. Instead I have observed that a few critical plays a game are swung in our opponent's direction because of player error. A dropped pass here, an OL breakdown there. And every one of these player mistakes is magnified because the offense is being forced into a shootout due to the aforementioned defensive failures.

 

So I don't believe adding more defensive players is going to solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball, whereas adding more offensive players will solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball. Kincaid came in as a rookie and had an immediate positive impact, breaking a couple franchise records along the way and scoring a TD in the playoffs. I'm still waiting for a highly drafted defensive player to have that kind of impact. At this point the Bills should just focus on making a move that they know will have a measurable positive impact on the team, and drafting a WR high in a WR-rich draft is too obvious an answer not to do it.

I'll play devils advocate.

 

Disagree with your point about McDermott coaching tendencies/philosophy, and bad defense vs Chiefs in playoffs.  We had WAY too many injuries to compete on defense, on every level-especially missing our top 2 LBs against a team with a dominant TE and Coach's use of LBs being paramount.

 

Each postseason, except for 2020, we've entered with too many injuries to key players:

1. 2021: Tre

2. 2022: Von, Tre still hobbled, Micah, Daquan

3. 2023: Milano, Bernard, Daquan coming off a torn pec, Rasul playing at 75%

 

Problem is injuries and not having a dominant player on defense.  Easier to overcome injuries, if we have a dominant guy healthy. Instead, we have several very good guys and when 1-2 miss, then we're SOL.

 

Our offense plays lights our because of Josh.  Eventually we need to find an equivalent defensive output to rely on.  And to me, that's what Beane has been chasing (Von signing, DL investments), and he should keep going that route until he hits.

 

With such a deep WR class, there will be very good WRs sitting there in round 2.  Usually is anyhow in each class, it's about proper scouting/etc but it's easier to hit when more talent is there.  

 

At DL, such a weak class overall, but there are 1-2 guys who could be there in Round 1 that could be a huge help.

 

Diggs, Samuel, a 2nd round WR with deep ball skills, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox would already be an upgrade on LY and likely our best group since 2020.  I just don't think we need a RD1 WR, not after investing in Kincaid LY and Samuel, to go with current group.  Our DE room is going to look bare after 2024 season, with Von likely gone and AJE isn't any more than a DE3- need more juice up front.

[3rdand12]

On 3/16/2024 at 3:12 PM, Shaw66 said:

I'm not sure they need another quality guy for 2024, but I won't argue the point. You may be right.  And I certainly won't object if a quality starter shows up in the draft. 

 

And I completely agree about the comparison with Shakir.  With Diggs and Samuel on the field, Shakir will see more open space to work in.  Samuel will make Shakir better, not vice versa.  

And Make Diggs better

 and Kincaid

and that other guy  umm Knox

Cook too

double reverse anyone ?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

What # are we thinking? 
 

Fornerly 10 (Shakir) as he entered the league, he returned to 4 (Cook) last season, which is what he wore at Ohio State. 
 

Any guesses? 

[aristocrat]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

juss gonna leave this here..

 

we’ve been chasing beaselys replacement for years and looks like we found him. Chain mover. 

[3rdand12]

32 minutes ago, QCity said:

Reading this thread it's apparent that many have never seen Samuel play. A lot of people are taking his stats and measurables and trying to contort them into a version of himself that they want him to be, rather than what he is - a slot and Z receiver that will also take snaps out of the backfield. He is not a Davis replacement and he is not a boundary receiver.  There is still a big hole at the X receiver position that is going to have to be filled with a high draft pick.

Outside speed please after the 1st round

 But Diggs needs next up pretty soon as well.

 Are they one and the same , X and go routes ?

 

[Mat68]

28 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Outside speed please after the 1st round

 But Diggs needs next up pretty soon as well.

 Are they one and the same , X and go routes ?

 

X is the player on the line there for does not motion.  Its pretty arbitrary in modern football.  The best wrs move around to make it harder to scheme against.  People saying they want a X or the Bills need an X they want a WR that is big and tall.   

Edited March 18 by Mat68

[Dr. Who]

37 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I'll play devils advocate.

 

Disagree with your point about McDermott coaching tendencies/philosophy, and bad defense vs Chiefs in playoffs.  We had WAY too many injuries to compete on defense, on every level-especially missing our top 2 LBs against a team with a dominant TE and Coach's use of LBs being paramount.

 

Each postseason, except for 2020, we've entered with too many injuries to key players:

1. 2021: Tre

2. 2022: Von, Tre still hobbled, Micah, Daquan

3. 2023: Milano, Bernard, Daquan coming off a torn pec, Rasul playing at 75%

 

Problem is injuries and not having a dominant player on defense.  Easier to overcome injuries, if we have a dominant guy healthy. Instead, we have several very good guys and when 1-2 miss, then we're SOL.

 

Our offense plays lights our because of Josh.  Eventually we need to find an equivalent defensive output to rely on.  And to me, that's what Beane has been chasing (Von signing, DL investments), and he should keep going that route until he hits.

 

With such a deep WR class, there will be very good WRs sitting there in round 2.  Usually is anyhow in each class, it's about proper scouting/etc but it's easier to hit when more talent is there.  

 

At DL, such a weak class overall, but there are 1-2 guys who could be there in Round 1 that could be a huge help.

 

Diggs, Samuel, a 2nd round WR with deep ball skills, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox would already be an upgrade on LY and likely our best group since 2020.  I just don't think we need a RD1 WR, not after investing in Kincaid LY and Samuel, to go with current group.  Our DE room is going to look bare after 2024 season, with Von likely gone and AJE isn't any more than a DE3- need more juice up front.

Well, devil, I don't think there is a DE that fits your criteria outside of Latu. I don't think Verse is that fella, and I sure don't think it's Chop or the Mizzou Robinson. The defensive difference maker you are looking for won't be there at #28. I don't think you're finding him in this draft, frankly. Edge is about the worst position, in terms of numbers and quality. Reaching at the bottom of the first for an answer to lack of a dominant defensive presence is not an answer if its driven more by contemplation of a bare cupboard after 2024 than intrinsic value of the available players.

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

X is the player on the line there for does motion.  Its pretty arbitrary in modern football.  The best wrs move around to make it harder to scheme against.  People saying they want a X or the Bills need an X they want a WR that is big and tall.   

Also fast, with good hands, and fashion sense.

[Yantha]

SOLID SOLID move.  Very nice replacement for Gabe Davis.

 

Also like Mack Hollins over Trent Sherfield.

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, devil, I don't think there is a DE that fits your criteria outside of Latu. I don't think Verse is that fella, and I sure don't think it's Chop or the Mizzou Robinson. The defensive difference maker you are looking for won't be there at #28. I don't think you're finding him in this draft, frankly. Edge is about the worst position, in terms of numbers and quality. Reaching at the bottom of the first for an answer to lack of a dominant defensive presence is not an answer if its driven more by contemplation of a bare cupboard after 2024 than intrinsic value of the available players.

Also fast, with good hands, and fashion sense.

Agree, I'm not advocating a "reach" at DE.  I however think that the Robinsons, Chop and Darius will be excellent picks.  Bring something different in skill sets, but both can "win" matchups and create havoc.

 

Nobody knows which prospects will prosper, so I won't waste time arguing merits of one versus another.  But I'll continue to say that we need DE/pass rush help badly.  Just a bit more than WR, IMO, after the Samuel pickup.  Player evaluation needs to meet the draft slot, but we're a better/more rounded team, if the scouting/evaluation has a DE=a WR at 28....you take the DE and come back with a WR in round 2 (potentially moving up, which I'm mentioned in numerous other posts)

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree, I'm not advocating a "reach" at DE.  I however think that the Robinsons, Chop and Darius will be excellent picks.  Bring something different in skill sets, but both can "win" matchups and create havoc.

 

Nobody knows which prospects will prosper, so I won't waste time arguing merits of one versus another.  But I'll continue to say that we need DE/pass rush help badly.  Just a bit more than WR, IMO, after the Samuel pickup.  Player evaluation needs to meet the draft slot, but we're a better/more rounded team, if the scouting/evaluation has a DE=a WR at 28....you take the DE and come back with a WR in round 2 (potentially moving up, which I'm mentioned in numerous other posts)

I'd be unhappy to see the Samuel pickup used as a rationale for going D in the first. Your hypothetical, if I'm reading it correctly, is a situation where the evaluation of the DE prospect is equal to the available WR talent. Since I think the fellas at edge likely to be there are really second rounders, it's probable for me the WR would be rated higher.

 

I do understand the strategy of waiting until the second in a deep draft at the WR position. It might be what Beane decides, but not my choice. I prefer Darius, if it comes down to which Robinson . . .

[Matt_In_NH]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've suggested moving Johnson before.  People bash me about it.  I like it because safety is a more important position.  It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety.  It's been a luxury to have him in that position.  

 

If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3.  

 

I think Johnson would be a great safety.  

 

I think he probably could play safety but not sure I agree with the bolded, this guy is one of the best slot corners and is a key to making the Bills defense work.  He is an all-pro and I would not mess with that.  There are like 20 starting safeties out there in FA right now even after FA has started, how many starting slot corners?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I just realized we drafted Zay Jones right before Curtis Samuel.

[Don Otreply]

On 3/15/2024 at 11:02 AM, Chandler#81 said:

and you know this ‘how’, exactly? Your crystal ball or your crystal meth?

According to his limited seven year career highlight film, (that is all over Bills YouTube content provider’s  channels) he has been mostly a medium to short area receiver with middling / okay stats, his catch percentage and YAC is better than Gabe, I’ll give you that, but it is certainly still to be determined if he can perform as a #2, if he is chosen for that position I will of course hope for the best, but we have an opportunity to boost our WR room from slightly above average, as it is now, to something more dynamic, so why not take at vantage of the upcoming opportunity that the draft provides and get that true #2 guy?  That to me is the question that should be asked and answered, jmo, no big deal if you disagree, 👍

[HappyDays]

 

[bourbonboy]

Guaranteed money guarantees he is here for two years. If it works out, we have him here for a third year at $8m or so - and if he is good, thats a steal considering how much higher good WR's will cost then - and if not, we suffer little dead money. Only risk is if he faceplants this year - and I'm not thinking thats likely.

[LEBills]

 

[gobills404]

On 3/14/2024 at 7:52 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Yes he is a clear upgrade over what the Bills had 

 

He’s not an upgrade over Davis because he’s not a Davis replacement. They’re completely different types of players that run completely different route trees. During that time Samuel has an average depth of target of ~6.5 yards vs ~15 yards for Gabe. Comparing their catch percentages is incredibly dumb.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

 

Thank you for posting! 

If anyone watches this breakdown and still hates the move they are crazy. If you can’t envision the element of explosive playmaking he will bring, I don’t know what to tell ya!  

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, Mat68 said:

X is the player on the line there for does not motion.  Its pretty arbitrary in modern football.  The best wrs move around to make it harder to scheme against.  People saying they want a X or the Bills need an X they want a WR that is big and tall.   

So how do you describe the John Brown Type ?

Samuel is not that. But is Troy Franklin ?

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, gobills404 said:

He’s not an upgrade over Davis because he’s not a Davis replacement. They’re completely different types of players that run completely different route trees. During that time Samuel has an average depth of target of ~6.5 yards vs ~15 yards for Gabe. Comparing their catch percentages is incredibly dumb.

 

He is not a replacement, but overall it's a big improvement IMO.  Way more versatile, faster, better hands.  Can operate much better in short yardage and goal line. 

 

Samuel's previous QBs:  Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell.

Edited March 19 by nedboy7

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Man I like that #1 for Samuel.

[SoonerBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

He is not a replacement, but overall it's a big improvement IMO.  Way more versatile, faster, better hands.  Can operate much better in short yardage and goal line. 

 

Samuel's previous QBs:  Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell.

Somehow fans got in their heads an X WR needs to be some big guy.  The X needs to be able to handle man coverage, win off the line, and have a good route tree.  Diggs and Samuel can both do that.  Hell maybe Shakir as well if given the chance.  

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, gobills404 said:

He’s not an upgrade over Davis because he’s not a Davis replacement. They’re completely different types of players that run completely different route trees. During that time Samuel has an average depth of target of ~6.5 yards vs ~15 yards for Gabe. Comparing their catch percentages is incredibly dumb.

You’re right- they’re completely different.  But to say that he isn’t replacing him isn’t correct imo.  I think he’s going to be top 2 in WR snaps unless we trade up for Thomas or Mitchell.  I think both of those guys would take Gabes spot and take 70-80% of his snaps.  Many of gabes snaps were due to his blocking ability and had little to do with the routes being run.

 

Samuel eats in the intermediate routes.  10-25 yards, he’s a separation machine imo.  There’s a chance he’ll be running a lot of the routes gabe ran as I think he’s better equipped to take on the outside role than shakir is.   Both Shakir and Samuel will have pretty heavy roles in offense imo.  With Kincaid and Knox also in the mix for snaps, whichever rookie WR we draft will have to beat out solid vets for snaps.  Dunno if the Franklin, Leggette, pearsall types would run away with all of gabes snaps. Thomas or Mitchell, maybe. 
 

I think samuel is an upgrade over Gabe more than he’s an upgrade over any other WR we lost.  He’s going to get a lot of snaps.  Just like Gabe. Unlike Harty.  Unlike Sherfield.  Shakir is still here and will be getting his share of snaps. Unlike Gabe, samuel gets open and can do so 25 yards down field.  That’s why he’s an upgrade imo

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Somehow fans got in their heads an X WR needs to be some big guy.  The X needs to be able to handle man coverage, win off the line, and have a good route tree.  Diggs and Samuel can both do that.  Hell maybe Shakir as well if given the chance.  

 

Mostly this.  I'm not sure how physical he is to be able to beat the jam, but no CB is pressing him at the line with that speed.

[Doc]

Where is Hollins slated to play?  Slot?

[TheWeatherMan]

3 hours ago, gobills404 said:

He’s not an upgrade over Davis because he’s not a Davis replacement. They’re completely different types of players that run completely different route trees. During that time Samuel has an average depth of target of ~6.5 yards vs ~15 yards for Gabe. Comparing their catch percentages is incredibly dumb.

Gabe Dropavis didn’t have a route tree, more like a branch.  

[transplantbillsfan]

Watched his highlights because I've never really watched him before. In particular I watched the year he was with Joe Brady in Carolina.

 

Truly is Deebo light. Ran multiple times and for multiple TDs out of the backfield. Although I still think/want a WR early in the draft, I think our WR corps has already been upgraded with the subtraction of Gabe, Harty and Sherfield and the addition of Hollins and Samuel.

[wppete]

Great cover1 break down of Curtis Samuel. Excited that we got this guy and he will be a weapon. Hope we also draft a deep threat WR in the draft.

 

 

 

Edited March 19 by wppete

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, gobills404 said:

He’s not an upgrade over Davis because he’s not a Davis replacement. They’re completely different types of players that run completely different route trees. During that time Samuel has an average depth of target of ~6.5 yards vs ~15 yards for Gabe. Comparing their catch percentages is incredibly dumb.

....all I know is when you drop the ball your "depth of target" is zero.

[JerseyBills]

Finally back after a week ban 🙄

 

Absolutely love this signing, dude has so much potential with a competent QB and offense  

 

Sky is the limit, don't be surprised if he puts up 1k all purpose yards

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Somehow fans got in their heads an X WR needs to be some big guy.  The X needs to be able to handle man coverage, win off the line, and have a good route tree.  Diggs and Samuel can both do that.  Hell maybe Shakir as well if given the chance.  

 

Man, you just want to convert everyone to positions other than the positions where they've found their footing and success in the NFL today, huh?

 

It's not about "needing some big guy". It's about where a player plays best.

 

Over the last number of seasons, Curtis Samuel has had 1042 snaps out of the Slot compared to 370 on the Boundary. He's someone who has burst off the line and gets open quickly in the short and intermediate passing game. He's tailor made there and has become the player he is there.

 

You don't take a guy who plays less than 40% on the Outside and tell him he lives there now.

Edited March 19 by BillsFanForever19

[Doc]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Man, you just want to convert everyone to positions other than the positions where they've found their footing and success in the NFL today, huh?

 

It's not about "needing some big guy". It's about where a player plays best.

 

Over the last number of seasons, Curtis Samuel has had 1042 snaps out of the Slot compared to 370 on the Boundary. He's someone who has burst off the line and gets open quickly in the short and intermediate passing game. He's tailor made there and has become the player he is there.

 

You don't take a guy who plays less than 40% on the Outside and tell him he lives there now.

 

I'd say that what happened in the past is immaterial.  But it would be interesting to know where Brady played him mostly when they were both in Carolina in 2020 (that info might be contained somewhere in the thread, I didn't read all of it).

Edited March 19 by Doc