2024 WR Draft Class

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

 

I like Tory Horton a lot, I think he decided to return to college for one more year. 

 

Also like Polk. Both of those guys probably end up with 2nd round grades. 

 

I think there's going to be an abnormal number wr's with 2nd and 3rd round grades this year. 

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks! Well done. It feels like Coleman is right around the skill set the Bills are looking for and who’ll be there when we pick…..but I’m far from an expert on the topic. 

 

Not early, with that speed.

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

I like Tory Horton a lot, I think he decided to return to college for one more year. 

 

Also like Polk. Both of those guys probably end up with 2nd round grades. 

 

I think there's going to be an abnormal number wr's with 2nd and 3rd round grades this year. 

You're right. I had written that down in my scouting notes but didn't do anything with the notes yet so he ended up remaining in my spreadsheet.

[Motorin']

Just now, DCOrange said:

You're right. I had written that down in my scouting notes but didn't do anything with the notes yet so he ended up remaining in my spreadsheet.

 

I was really expecting him to enter the draft. Think he'd be a great fit in our offense. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not early, with that speed.

Note that I didn’t say First Round. I’m very much NOT of the mindset that a deep burner is what we need. There are way more possession type catches in the NFL then there will ever be home run long shots. 

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, wppete said:

Agree. But is Thomas Jr. is also there I think he would be a better fit. But either of these guys would be a home run for us. 

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

Give me ol steady Troy Franklin all day. I want a balanced receiver thar josh can count on getting the ball to several times a game, every game.

 

Thomas is more of a finisher when your wr room is already stocked IMO

[DCOrange]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Note that I didn’t say First Round. I’m very much NOT of the mindset that a deep burner is what we need. There are way more possession type catches in the NFL then there will ever be home run long shots. 

I think ideally we kill two birds with one stone and get a wide out that can win with speed with one pick, but if we simply get a good wide out and then double dip later to add more of a speed element, that probably works for me too.

1 minute ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

Give me ol steady Troy Franklin all day. I want a balanced receiver thar josh can count on getting the ball to several times a game, every game.

 

Thomas is more of a finisher when your wr room is already stocked IMO

I think Thomas' ability to beat press coverage will make him a far more consistent threat than someone like Gabe. I suspect that with his press abilities and in general the way he's able to separate with speed, he'll at minimum be very tough to deal with on vertical routes and crossers. If he can expand beyond that, even better. But the press beaters are his trump card that make him my #1 target assuming we don't make a massive trade up.

 

I've also heard that when Nabers sat out the bowl game, Thomas showed a much more diverse skill set than what he showed most of the season, but I admittedly have not watched yet.

[Rubes]

Can't wait to see this place when Beane goes with a CB at 28...

 

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Good post. The only move ups that I think make sense are putting 6-7 round picks together to get another 5. Rounds 1-5 are where the moneys at, so try to get as many of these as you can. 
 

And yes, I  know Benford was a 6th round pick. But what other 6-7 round picks have the Bills made that were quality starters for the Bills in the last 5 years?

Dane and despite the blowback this gets Hamlin. 6th and 7th, but overall I agree with the points

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Can't wait to see this place when Beane goes with a CB at 28...

 

Can't wait when he goes WR and next draft where it's some other offensive position it seems we need and we hear the exact same BS from people.

[BillsShredder83]

20 hours ago, BBFL said:

I get that. Which is exactly why I’m liking it. We struggled with the deep passes being consistent in our offense this season. 

Deep passes and consistent don't go together very often.

 

Remember the lovely intermediate routes josh was feasting on in 2020. With Stef and smoke and gabe. *That* was consistent and repeatable. Troy Franklin is my guy for that!!!

[BillsShredder83]

34 minutes ago, boyst said:

Kelvin Benjafat

Lol, this entertained me way more than it should 😆😆😆

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

[DCOrange]

Just now, Ga boy said:

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

[Ga boy]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

Great explanation.  He looks like he plays with attitude like Moss and TO and Diggs.  If we don’t trade up to get one of those green guys, I think Keon is ready to play.

[Mat68]

For these 6’4 plus guys the combine is going to separate them.  Who is a 4.6 who is low 4.5.  Mike Evans vs Kelvin Benjamin.  Also, with new rules the wr size isnt as big of a deal.  Devonte Smith and Tank Dell are fine.  If Worthy run 4.3 his speed and separation translates better then the big guys 50/50 ability. I would like to see Buffalo double dip at Wr.  One early and one in the middle rounds.  

Edited January 29 by Mat68

[BillsShredder83]

16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

 

 

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

the fact that in your chart only 3 had 20+ contested TARGETS, really tells a story..... only 20 targets that aline with someone's strongest skill set, is not enough to depend on. great for redzone, but not a guy that really has any chance at being a #1 WR down the road. 

 

there are plenty of WRs whos best skill set leads to getting separation, these guys see 80-120+ targets for doing this.  jump ball guy is too niche of a skill for my liking in the first round

30 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

good question bro.  honestly he disappeared in far too many games for my liking as well.... now if he slides down the board, id be a lot more interested later on

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

 

the fact that in your chart only 3 had 20+ contested TARGETS, really tells a story..... only 20 targets that aline with someone's strongest skill set, is not enough to depend on. great for redzone, but not a guy that really has any chance at being a #1 WR down the road. 

 

there are plenty of WRs whos best skill set leads to getting separation, these guys see 80-120+ targets for doing this.  jump ball guy is too niche of a skill for my liking in the first round

 

100% agree with this. 

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

 

I am. Definitely. I mean he is better than Gabe, and faster than Gabe, and more explosive than Gabe. But he can basically run the same three routes as Gabe. I think that is fine if Diggs can get back to being Diggs. If you get a better version of Gabe Davis we have already seen that 1-2 punch can work - especially with Kincaid and Shakir developing in supporting roles. My worry is if Diggs can't get back to his best and your next guy is just a better version of Gabe.... they you are in trouble. Because I think you become predictable. 

[SoCal Deek]

You get a tall, big bodied WR and you use him as your first down safety blanket for your tall, big bodied QB. The kid runs out five yards, turns around and Josh tosses it up high, where the kid comes down with it like a rebound. Move the chains, over and over again. 

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You get a tall, big bodied WR and you use him as your first down safety blanket for your tall, big bodied QB. The kid runs out five yards, turns around and Josh tosses it up high, where the kid comes down with it like a rebound. Move the chains, over and over again. 

I don't think size is really necessary for this kind of thing. This is precisely the type of stuff Kincaid was consistently successful doing. If anything, you probably want to prioritize quickness over size for this kind of thing IMO so that the WR can start/stop and create good separation and then Allen can throw it low and away from the defender.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 Dynamic Explosive play threats please.
 

I highly doubt we'd be this aggressive, but trading up into the teens for Brian Thomas Jr 

& then trading up again for someone like Xavier Worthy if he falls far enough into the 2nd 

That would get the juices flowing on offense 

Edited January 29 by Warriorspikes51

[wppete]

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

Give me ol steady Troy Franklin all day. I want a balanced receiver thar josh can count on getting the ball to several times a game, every game.

 

Thomas is more of a finisher when your wr room is already stocked IMO

I see what you are are saying. I think the 40 times at the combine should be a big factor. Thomas Jr. looks like a major threat downfield with his size and speed. We need that but I would also be happy with Troy Franklin, he’s also a stud. Either way can’t go wrong. 

[Doc]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Note that I didn’t say First Round. I’m very much NOT of the mindset that a deep burner is what we need. There are way more possession type catches in the NFL then there will ever be home run long shots. 

 

Coleman is projected in some places as the 4th best WR.  They will have to take him in the 1st.  But they absolutely need a speed WR.  Now the place that rated him 4th said he runs a 4.45 (I saw 4.57), which could change things.

Edited January 29 by Doc

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

You get a tall, big bodied WR and you use him as your first down safety blanket for your tall, big bodied QB. The kid runs out five yards, turns around and Josh tosses it up high, where the kid comes down with it like a rebound. Move the chains, over and over again. 

That is Kincaid.  They need someone who can line up outside and beat press.  Whether its with size speed or both.  50/50 jump ball catchers have high bust rates.  50/50 catch rates do not correlate well to the NFL.  Separation is most important.  Size in a vacuum is best but need the prerequisites first.   

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Coleman is projected in some places as the 4th best WR.  They will have to take him in the 1st.  But they absolutely need a speed WR.  Now the place that rated him 4th said he runs a 4.45 (I saw 4.57), which could change things.

 

Even if he does he doesn't play that fast. I watched 4 full games of us and dropped him after every game. Really came into it expecting to like him based on my tv exposure to Florida State in season too. One of the most disappointing tape evaluations.

[DJB]

Coleman sucks. Can’t separate and has poor speed. He also has terrible contested catch % numbers. 

 

New age WR’s need to be able to create separation with quickness , suddenness at the line and also threaten with deep speed.

 

Edited January 29 by DJB

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

2 Dynamic Explosive play threats please.
 

I highly doubt we'd be this aggressive, but trading up into the teens for Brian Thomas Jr 

& then trading up again for someone like Xavier Worthy if he falls far enough into the 2nd 

That would get the juices flowing on offense 

I do like both.  I would like to see them walk away with either than add another in the middle rounds. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I don't think size is really necessary for this kind of thing. This is precisely the type of stuff Kincaid was consistently successful doing. If anything, you probably want to prioritize quickness over size for this kind of thing IMO so that the WR can start/stop and create good separation and then Allen can throw it low and away from the defender.

Thats where we differ I guess. Football has evolved into a possession game. You can see it with Mahomes and Kelce. Just keep the ball, pick up the first downs, and if it’s close you go for it on fourth down. Keep the chains moving and for goodness sake’s do NOT give the ball back to your opponent. I’m not a huge fan on this newest evolution because it’s become akin to the NBA but if that’s what the league has become, let’s be REALLY good at it. 

[starrymessenger]

3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

For these 6’4 plus guys the combine is going to separate them.  Who is a 4.6 who is low 4.5.  Mike Evans vs Kelvin Benjamin.  Also, with new rules the wr size isnt as big of a deal.  Devonte Smith and Tank Dell are fine.  If Worthy run 4.3 his speed and separation translates better then the big guys 50/50 ability. I would like to see Buffalo double dip at Wr.  One early and one in the middle rounds.  

If you are not so much into 6'4" guys you might like Ekbuka/ Ladd McConkey. There is a lot to be said for those guys.

[eball]

I haven't read through the whole thread.  What do people think of Tez Walker?

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Man, this is so nerve wracking. I've seen enough drafts to know that not all of these WRs will pan out. And the Bills must, must, MUST hit on their pick.

 

The good news is, the last WR-packed draft I can think of in 2014, almost all of the guys taken in the first 2 rounds panned out.

 

12 WRs in the first 2 rounds in 2014, and really only Paul Richardson and Cody Latimer were misses.

 

[Blackbeard]

Ask Allen who he wants and get him.

[starrymessenger]

14 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

If you are not so much into 6'4" guys you might like Ekbuka/ Ladd McConkey. There is a lot to be said for those guys.

I see that Ekbuka is going back to OH. I guess he wants to show what he can do as the primary receiver. Given the strength of 2024 class that's probably a good decision. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

That is Kincaid.  They need someone who can line up outside and beat press.  Whether its with size speed or both.  50/50 jump ball catchers have high bust rates.  50/50 catch rates do not correlate well to the NFL.  Separation is most important.  Size in a vacuum is best but need the prerequisites first.   

This. Brown and Beasley were both top 5-10 NFL WR separators when we brought them in and look what it did for JA17.

[<bills4life>]

55 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

Ask Allen who he wants and get him.

Great. What could go wrong?

[TheBeaneBandit]

Yeah Coleman imo doesn't translate to a quality NFL receiver at all.

[Whkfc]

On 1/27/2024 at 9:55 PM, gonzo1105 said:

Guy ain’t running in the 4.2s cmon people really going to believe this 

 

He is speedy. My only worry about him is he a bit of a 1 year wonder. 

[Aussie Joe]

On 1/28/2024 at 1:55 PM, gonzo1105 said:

Guy ain’t running in the 4.2s cmon people really going to believe this 

Maybe not…. I Recently heard some Bills podcaster who says he has been measured on the field during a game with a quicker fastest speed then  Hill… not on the track … but on the field carrying a football with the pads on …

 

I have no idea if that’s true or not ..just passing it on,,,

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Maybe not…. I Recently heard some Bills podcaster who says he has been measured on the field during a game with a quicker fastest speed then  Hill… not on the track … but on the field carrying a football with the pads on …

 

I have no idea if that’s true or not ..just passing it on,,,

Well he’s already been overhyped. Listed at 6’3 and he measured at the senior bowl at 6’1. Not that that’s terrible but not a good indicator of inflated measurable in the future

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

Well he’s already been overhyped. Listed at 6’3 and he measured at the senior bowl at 6’1. Not that that’s terrible but not a good indicator of inflated measurable in the future

Ok…let’s wait and see… he won’t be the first or last guy that has had his height or weight overstated  ….so I’m not going necessarily say that the rest of the buzz is overhype ..

 

Lets wait and see how he goes at the combine