Bills Draft Rd 1 - Pick 28

[DCOrange]

56 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm partial to Tez Walker among the back half of first round prospects.

 

I know people tend to use the draft sites to arrange their picks and he's not "mocking" this high generally but he has the size, speed, soft hands, catches contested passes, tracks the ball well, keeps his feet moving at the catch etc.

 

I like Brian Thomas Jr a lot too but my guess is he's gone.

 

Honestly,  if Tez Walker tests like the people at UNC expect(4.3's) he's probably gone too.

I didn't think any of UNC's WRs stood out on film this year when I was watching Maye, but I know some other people are very high on him like you are so maybe I'm just missing it.

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Spent the last hour reading scouting reports and watching highlight videos of some of the suggestions in this thread (yes I know this is an extremely limited way of researching prospects). All of them left something to be desired. After the obvious top 3 of Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze, everyone else seemed like a round 2 or lower prospect to me.

 

And then I got to Troy Franklin. He has immediately become my draft crush (last year my drash crush was Kincaid so that worked out perfectly for me). What am I missing here? He has the kind of vertical speed that makes it impossible to overthrow him. He has a knack for turning his leverage at the catch point into YAC. He appears to be able to run more than just go routes. He looks competitive out there and looks like he truly loves to play the game which means something. Plus he is 6'3 unlike a lot of these speedy WR prospects we see year after year.

 

Seems like a perfect fit for Josh Allen. Maybe not capable of becoming a true alpha #1 but elite speed means so much in the modern NFL and it's slim pickings at the bottom of the 1st no matter what.

Just mentioning it as a reply to your post because you were researching. For those that are interested, two really handy links for scouting purposes:

 

A free spreadsheet that a bunch of people worked on to provide links to a ton of game film of each prospect (generally just broadcast views, but it's better than nothing):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18a0E2eJPc14LmSOw6vJtvhryNWC-ojOffARtFlCV3xk/edit#gid=0

 

Or for $2 a month you can get access to All-22 film for a ton of prospects here; this is what I use for my QB scouting

https://www.patreon.com/CaddysCutups

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can see the concern about his frame, that is just not something I personally worry about. People criticized Devonta Smith over his frame. I think NFL strength and conditioning can help him fill out a bit, and more importantly his other athletic traits more than make up for it.

 

I don't expect him to be a great contested catch WR and that isn't what you draft him to be. Just separate and then catch the ball when it hits him in the hands. That is all I want out of our next WR investment.

 

 

I remember identical highlight videos for N'Keal Harry. Just isn't my kind of WR personally. I want separation first and foremost.

 

So many prospects here. I don't see Coleman at all like Harry. I had a chance to see Harry a lot in college but I agree Coleman might have issues separating. He's very athletic for a 6'4 WR, but he still doesn't have that ultra fast twitch that you want. Strider, more vertically athletic than agile and quick. I love Odunze, I don't see him lasting though. Leggit is also intriguing. Almost Metcalf like in his frame, which historically has meant injury risk, but explosive player.

 

I wonder if the Bills view this depth as a reason to wait even later than the 1st round or an opportunity to nab a potential top flight WR late.  What concerns me is we could still draft defense as we will have a lot of holes on defense. Which is really damning considering we have invested so many resources already. 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Leggit is also intriguing. Almost Metcalf like in his frame, which historically has meant injury risk, but explosive player.

 

I really want to like Leggett because I am big on size/speed traits for WRs. I could see a path to him becoming the next AJ Brown. I am just immediately turned off when I see 5th year senior with one year of production. It makes me concerned that he is just big boy-ing younger less developed players and that none of it will translate to the pros. It's the kind of player I would want to know how he does in interviews and private workouts. He is a big swing but I see the massive upside.

[DrDawkinstein]

Anyone feel a way about another postseason played in vain just to end up with the 28th pick instead of a shot at the talent available at 17 or 18?

 

I'll be keeping an eye on the Bengals at 18 to see who they pick to replace Higgins, and essentially steal away from us.

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, MWK said:

I’d bet big money on a safety

We don’t need a LB for anything more than depth. We have two and we will continue to play nickel every down

This season ALONE shows that depth is ESSENTIAL!! Many of McDermott's rookies take time to see the field. The guy I mentioned is one of the best. Can potentially supplant Milano when time comes or spell him during games. 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am immediately wary of any WR prospect where his best trait is "contested catch specialist." That is a red flag. My first question is, why are you facing so many contested catches against college coverage? The coverage is going to get much much tougher in the pros and the contested catches don't come as easy. I can't remember the last "contested catch specialist" that worked out in the NFL.

Deandre Hopkins? 

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Deandre Hopkins? 

In my opinion that shift for sale, Hopkins isn’t getting any younger we need to start going towards a movement of youth I only look at Hopkins if he’s coming on a very good contract, and then I still draft a wide receiver

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

In my opinion that shift for sale, Hopkins isn’t getting any younger we need to start going towards a movement of youth I only look at Hopkins if he’s coming on a very good contract, and then I still draft a wide receiver

I was responding to @HappyDayswhen asked if there was a "contested catch" guy that made it in the NFL. I personally want the Bills to take two WRs in this upcoming draft. 

[No_Matter_What]

6 hours ago, peterpan said:

I watch Texas and yea Mitchell is also good.  I saw some KeonColeman just now he seems good too.  
 

idk it just jumps off the screen how this Legette is another level. He looks like a head taller and a foot wider than anyone guarding him.  He runs like an Olympic sprinter.  The ball ….It looks like a nerf football in his hands.  He jumps like 3 feet in the air.  He’s built like Gronkowski and runs like tyreek. You’d think he was playing against high school kids but it’s the SEC! 

I don't watch college football but looking at his highlights this seems like a fair description.

 

But if true, why is everybody expecting him to be there at 28 or so? Shouldn't he be a top 15 pick or something?

 

The only "red flag" I read about him so far is that he started to produce later. Is that it? That is why he is not a clear first round pick?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I am immediately wary of any WR prospect where his best trait is "contested catch specialist." That is a red flag. My first question is, why are you facing so many contested catches against college coverage? The coverage is going to get much much tougher in the pros and the contested catches don't come as easy. I can't remember the last "contested catch specialist" that worked out in the NFL.

 

He isn't even that good at contested catches. I started off my tv viewings of him this year with a provisional mid 1st on Coleman. I have been through 4 full games of his now and he has dropped a full round in my grading. Wouldn't take him on day 1 even if he was there to be honest.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I like Brian Thomas Jr a lot too but my guess is he's gone.

 

This surprises me a bit because he is, in a sense, a faster Gabe Davis and I know you have not been a Gabe lover. He is a speed / size guy and he runs the go routes well but I don't really know how else you use him. To me among that little group with Franklin and Legette he is the least versatile. I don't think you are getting anything in the intermediate game with Thomas. 

 

I think I'd like him more as a fit for the Bills if I was sure I still had prime Stef. But I think given there are questions about whether you have that you need a guy who has a few more strings to his bow.

 

EDIT: I do agree he won't make it to the Bills anyway. He is going somewhere between 15 and 25.

Edited January 23 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

From what I've been reading, knocks on him are:

 

- Below-average flexibility. Tall, lanky frame makes it tough for him to drop his hips and work certain routes.

 

- Inconsistent ability to win the ball in the air. Shows flashes thanks to good hands and long arms, but it comes and goes.

 

- Below-average blocker due to skinny frame.

 

But at where we're picking, you're not going to find a perfect prospect. Gotta take the good with the bad. And it looks like there's a lot of good.

 

Yea it is hands and blocking. 9 drops this past year is a legit concern and you get nothing from him as a blocker. 

 

I know people will immediately say "screw blocking I am drafting a receiver to catch" and I get that. But in an NFL where it feels like almost half the league are running the Shanahan stretch zone version of the WCO not being able to block reduces your potential landing spots significantly.

 

In a sense that is good news for the Bills if they like him because we are not that style of offense and it isn't as emphasised in the E-P. But having said that Brady has talked up Gabe's blocking a lot since becoming OC so maybe it would influence his thinking if he is retained in that role. 

 

EDIT: I should make clear I like Franklin. I am not sure I quite have him as a true 1st but I do like him. He is in that late 1st / early 2nd grade range for me and I think he will slip into the end of round 1. However, those are the major knocks on his film IMO. 

Edited January 23 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

I have started with receivers this year (normally do end up starting with what I consider the Bills needs) and have spent the last week and a half on them. My provisional rankings of the guys I have done some work on at this stage are:

 

1. Harrison Jnr

2. Odunze

3. Nabers

4. Legette

5. Franklin

6. Thomas

7. Worthy

8. Mitchell

9. Coleman

 

 

8 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

DK didn't go in the first two rounds either. That was a mistake they won't make again. I expect Leggett to go late first early second. 
 

 

He did. He went late 2nd to Seattle. 

[Pete]

I’m ok with Cooper at pick 28 if we sign Mike Evans and draft WR in the 2nd 

[Beast]

20 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

another DL who will flash in September and October, then vanish the rest of the season to the point where you forget he's even on the team. 

 

We have Shakir now that McDermott was forced to play him, so we're "set" at WR! 

Why would McDermott not let his offensive coordinator play Shakir? I keep hearing this from posters like yourself. 
 

Could you give me an answer as to how you know this to be true? Because, quite frankly, I think it’s a load of bull####.

Edited January 23 by Beast

[peterpan]

2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I don't watch college football but looking at his highlights this seems like a fair description.

 

But if true, why is everybody expecting him to be there at 28 or so? Shouldn't he be a top 15 pick or something?

 

The only "red flag" I read about him so far is that he started to produce later. Is that it? That is why he is not a clear first round pick?

Idk I only knew he existed 12 hours ago.  Only one year of production maybe? I bet he sets the combine on fire tho. 

[CNYfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn't even that good at contested catches. I started off my tv viewings of him this year with a provisional mid 1st on Coleman. I have been through 4 full games of his now and he has dropped a full round in my grading. Wouldn't take him on day 1 even if he was there to be honest.

Coleman reminds me a bit of the WR that LA Chargers took last year.  Johnson or Johnston.  I didn't like that WR that much and I don't like Coleman.   This will get sorted over the next three months, but no Coleman for me.  

[MiracleAtRich1393]

16 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

% OF WR HIT BENCHMARKS AT LEAST ONCE IN THEIR CAREERS

 

Draft Range No 1,000-yd seasons one 1,000-yd season 2+ 1,000-yd seasons 3+ 1,000-yd seasons 8-TD season 16-TD season

1st rd pick 51% 19% 30% 23% 52% 16%

Top-10 pick 50% 18% 32% 29% 57% 18%

So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. 

 

That's why we should take WR with the first three picks. If multiple hit in this stacked class then Allen has an embarrassment of riches well past Diggs' tenure. But you have to get at least ONE hit from this draft. So make sure it happens.

 

Safety can wait til day 3. Take more than one safety day 3 IDGAF. We should be aiming to spoil Allen, try to set all time scoring & efficiency records. Put the fear of God into opposing defenses. Make opposing offenses get in their own heads about having to score 30+ or they lose. That's how mistakes are made and our defense can be opportunistic. The defensive head coach gets less resources and can try to do more with less.

Edited January 23 by MiracleAtRich1393

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

Coleman reminds me a bit of the WR that LA Chargers took last year.  Johnson or Johnston.  I didn't like that WR that much and I don't like Coleman.   This will get sorted over the next three months, but no Coleman for me.  

 

I didn't like Johnston much either. I don't think Coleman even has Johnston's speed, but I see similarities in that for bigger targets they both seem to struggle above the rim and play smaller than their size as a result. 

 

If we haven't taken a receiver round 1 and Coleman is there end of round 2 for us I could live with it. But I think you'd be re-drafting Gabe Davis tbh but with a 2nd round price tag rather than a 4th round price tag. Definitely not my preferred option. 

[peterpan]

https://sports.yahoo.com/south-carolinas-xavier-legette-fastest-175752781.html#:~:text=How fast did Xavier Legette,this season%2C including the NFL.

[Coach Tuesday]

Honestly I’m not sure I trust this staff to scout wide receivers.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Honestly I’m not sure I trust this staff to scout wide receivers.

 

It's a good question as to what their "type" is. Their two highest draft picks at the position - Gabe and Khalil are polar opposites and Stef isn't really like either of them. I get wanting to build a diverse room but I don't have a strong sense as to what they will be looking for. We know some of the guys they have passed on... and we have very strong evidence to suggest they loved Addison last year... but I don't know that I can discount or enhance the claims of particular players at the position as Bills fits in the way I can with some other teams. 

[Gregg]

They should go WR, but you know the pick will be DL or S. Beane and McDermott love their defense.

[DCOrange]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't like Johnston much either. I don't think Coleman even has Johnston's speed, but I see similarities in that for bigger targets they both seem to struggle above the rim and play smaller than their size as a result. 

 

If we haven't taken a receiver round 1 and Coleman is there end of round 2 for us I could live with it. But I think you'd be re-drafting Gabe Davis tbh but with a 2nd round price tag rather than a 4th round price tag. Definitely not my preferred option. 

Seems like all the draft media people have Coleman much higher than people like you and I do. He’s probably the guy I’m most skeptical of among the WRs for all the reasons you mentioned. I think literally 50% of his targets this season were contested and he wasn’t particularly good at bringing them in. He has a couple freakishly good catches on film that seem to have won the media over but the full film and numbers do not match that at all. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Seems like all the draft media people have Coleman much higher than people like you and I do. He’s probably the guy I’m most skeptical of among the WRs for all the reasons you mentioned. I think literally 50% of his targets this season were contested and he wasn’t particularly good at bringing them in. He has a couple freakishly good catches on film that seem to have won the media over but the full film and numbers do not match that at all. 

 

Yea. I get it because I liked him just watching a couple of Florida State games this year. But the more you really dig into him the more red flags there are. I think he will be a faller in the process. I definitely don't think he ends up going round 1. I think the Thomas, Legette, Franklin tier will rise. They are all going to test well I think and honestly I think all of their tape has more to get excited about when you think of NFL transition.

[DCofNC]

22 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

They don't. That's my hope.

 

They need to use some of those 10 picks they have gathered up to move WAYYY up the board for a WR...or use that 1st to trade for an impact player. 

I’d like to see them land some impact guys, no matter where, haven’t gotten on since Allen.  Kincaid looks like he will be, but I can’t give a guy that they only throw the ball to within 5 yards an impact guy yet (yes that’s a slight hyperbole, but you know what I mean).

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Honestly I’m not sure I trust this staff to scout wide receivers.

 

I will trust them if they bring back Phil McGeoghan as WR coach to advise the HC whom to select in the draft. 

[4merper4mer]

19 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

For everyone wanting a WR - statistics say round # 1 picks are a coin flip relative to productivity in year #1.  

If you remove overhyped Bama receivers from that equation your chances for success go way up.

[Ralonzo]

12 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I wouldn’t mind a WR at pick 28, but this team has way too many other holes to fill to be trading picks and trying to move up much.  This team needs to get younger, faster and cheaper.  Draft picks are the only way to do that.

 

The consistent top level teams somehow always have a guy drop right to them in their position of need, and to a disgusting degree if that team is Baltimore for some reason (Flowers, Madubuike, Likely, Hamilton, Linderbaum, Oweh, Dobbins, etc etc)

 

Edit: Oh right. Lamar.

Edited January 23 by Ralonzo

[Rocbillsfan1]

There better be 2 WRs picked in the first 4 rounds with 1 hopefully in the first. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's a good question as to what their "type" is. Their two highest draft picks at the position - Gabe and Khalil are polar opposites and Stef isn't really like either of them. I get wanting to build a diverse room but I don't have a strong sense as to what they will be looking for. We know some of the guys they have passed on... and we have very strong evidence to suggest they loved Addison last year... but I don't know that I can discount or enhance the claims of particular players at the position as Bills fits in the way I can with some other teams. 

And I’m including the pro personnel side as well.  Sherfield, Harty, Isabella this year.  Before that you’ve got Sanders’ corpse, Brown’s corpse, Beasley’s corpse, Crowder. I mean wtf are these evaluators looking at?

Edited January 23 by Coach Tuesday

[bills6969]

 

[BearNorth]

Since Beane and McDermott began to control our drafts [2018] we have drafted 45 players. 21 are currently on our roster, 2 on IR, 15 on other teams rosters, and 7 are either street free agents or out of football.

 

Notable Bills draft choices on other teams rosters include:

 

2018    6    187    Ray Ray McCloud - SF
2018    1    16    Tremaine Edmunds - CHI
2018    5    166    Wyatt Teller - CLE
2018    3    96    Harrison Phillips - MIN
2019    2    38    Cody Ford - CIN
2019    3    74    Devin Singletary - HOU
2020    3    86    Zack Moss - IND
2020    6    207    Isaiah Hodgins - NYG

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

This team needs to add an impact WR and another reliable WR

 

Diggs - we'll see?
Round 1
Shakir
Round 2-3 
Veteran UFA 

[BearNorth]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

This team needs to add an impact WR and another reliable WR

 

Diggs - we'll see?
Round 1
Shakir
Round 2-3 
Veteran UFA 

Agreed and at least one has to have elite speed, and [hopefully] be able to catch the ball.  We are playing in a conference with Tyreek, Waddle, Chase, Higgins, etc.  Our QB arguably has the best arm in the league, but we don't have the weapons to use it to strike fear into DC's.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Honestly I’m not sure I trust this staff to scout wide receivers.

Factoid: the highest round the Bills have drafted a WR in during the McDermott tenure (both Whaley and Beane) was Gabe Davis in the 4th round.

 

I think they can get someone competent in round 1 or 2

[Cray51]

13 hours ago, wppete said:

Whatever they do we need to come out of the draft with 3-4 solid starters. 

That's one of the good things about Beane, he will find 3-4 starters in this draft.  In fact, we can expect that and factor into our roster assumptions moving forward.

[Low Positive]

Just as an aside, the Bills went offense for their first two picks last year. That fact seems to be conveniently forgotten in these parts.

[Cray51]

Beane averages 4 players from his drafts that hit our rosters each season.  If we look at positions where I could see drafted talent supplanting FAs, I look at WR, DL, Safety, QB, Corner.

 

I suspect Beane will hit 3 of the 5 areas in this draft, so talent should carry forward.  Obviously we would be going with a QB in the first 4 rounds\, and Corner is likely down the list as well.  But for the first 3 rounds, I expect WR/DL/Safety/X-Factor player

[Drew21PA]

Ohhh you KNOW they are going edge rusher or corner