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Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.


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10 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Honestly that forecast is gold for me. A slight slickness so their run game is a touch slower/Rudolph's timing is a bit off, and winds where Josh won't be super accurate, but should be accurate enough on intermediate throws.

 

Of course, if things change, so does the game plan.

 

Rudolph throws a moon ball that won't be happy in that wind. However Pickens is a contested catch monster.

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36 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think Brady is able to see the big picture better than Dorsey. Dorsey I believe, could draw up great plays but just didn't have a feel for the game. There are many great plays that look great on paper but if you can't think about what needs to be done to fool the defense your toast. In fact, I think this is Brady's bread and butter. He just seems to know what play to call and when.

To Brady's credit the timing of his promotion (for him) was awful, taking over an early season fave reeling and looking like they had already played their way out of the post-season. He has gotten past that gauntlet to now face a FAR bigger test in the playoffs, where better defenses and better defensive coaching is the bane of pretenders. Dorsey was so awful at situational football that Brady has a chance to take the product he was given and improve after the few games he now has under his belt, but the odds are not in his favor. We are entering the "second season" of the NFL when the best in the business exacerbate even smaller flaws in opponent strategy. The one thing it's safe to say about Brady is that we are in better hands than we were with Dorsey. It will be much to his credit to see our O start playing up to their potential right now since he's already been able to reel in the slide Dorsey dragged us into.

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1 hour ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

 

This seems like a bit of hyperbole. I’ve seen the forecast from my trusted weather sources. Sat eve the temps plummet and it gets windy as hell (50 mph gusts). We are fortunate the game isn’t scheduled for Sat night. By Sunday at 1pm there’s a 30% chance of scattered snow but no real accumulation. Winds 20-30 but trending a little less towards the 4th Qtr, and no huge gust predictions.  Sunday night temps are in the low teens and that’s when 2-4 inches is expected.  Of course this could all change but 4 days out it’s coming into focus.

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8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I've never watched an episode of Hard Knocks before.  I was going to watch a little bit of it and said no way am I watching this for almost an hour.  I couldn't stop watching and ended up watching the entire thing lol.  It actually is an interesting program.  I especially liked all the field view footage of the game.  From broadcast angles you don't actually realize the speed of everything on the field but this view is a whole new perspective of how fast those guys are really flying around out there.

 

I presonally liked the footage from Tua's GoPro. Made me feel like, "Hey I could do that!"

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18 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Rudolph throws a moon ball that won't be happy in that wind. 

 

I'm going to dispute that very general statement with two points.  First, an opinion, Rudolph will not be throwing "moon balls" in Sundays weather.  Second, fact, his throw for the long TD vs. the Ravens was on a rope and a great throw with some mustard on it.  Granted it was 15-20 yards in the air, but that is exactly the type of intermediate range pattern they will likely run in Sundays weather.

 

Edited by BillnutinHouston
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5 hours ago, BuffBills51 said:

I asked in the tailgate forum but seems to be limited activity there. I am bringing my 68 year old mother to her first playoff game Sunday and got Pepsi Club tickets. I normally park in a private lot but am considering parking in lot 7 due to its proximity to the club. If we get to the stadium by 10:30 should we be able to get a space or do you need a pre-purchased pass? It says on the site it is a public lot. Also, is the lot unbearable to exit at the end of the game. I know traffic is always an issue but some lots are worse. 

Does she have a car handicap placard?  If so - park in one of the two ADA lots next to the stadium.  That is the best thing going if you have it.

 

Also - if you have a wheelchair you can wheel her in throgh the VIP gate and staff can direct you to elevators that are behind unmarked doors located outside the stadium.  If she walks in, you can still get stadium staff to take her up to the level in a wheelchair once you enter the gate.

 

My (89 yr old) Dad still gets around, but long walks are tough for him.  A few years ago we started using his handicap placard (which he normally never uses) to park in the ADA lot, and got him to swallow his pride and wheel him in with a transport wheelchair he has from some old injury - it is so much easier for him and makes the day go much smoother.

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4 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Does she have a car handicap placard?  If so - park in one of the two ADA lots next to the stadium.  That is the best thing going if you have it.

 

Also - if you have a wheelchair you can wheel her in throgh the VIP gate and staff can direct you to elevators that are behind unmarked doors located outside the stadium.  If she walks in, you can still get stadium staff to take her up to the level in a wheelchair once you enter the gate.

 

My (89 yr old) Dad still gets around, but long walks are tough for him.  A few years ago we started using his handicap placard (which he normally never uses) to park in the ADA lot, and got him to swallow his pride and wheel him in with a transport wheelchair he has from some old injury - it is so much easier for him and makes the day go much smoother.

No handicap sticker. Fortunately she gets around extremely well but with the potential for heavy snow and cold would prefer she didn’t need to walk a mile before and after the game. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffBills51 said:

No handicap sticker. Fortunately she gets around extremely well but with the potential for heavy snow and cold would prefer she didn’t need to walk a mile before and after the game. 

Yeah I was just going to update I actually initially mis-read her age as 86 😛

 

Relative to regular parking I would think yeah you'd have to get there early to get close in a regular lot - and then be prepared to wait a while after for the lot to clear.

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57 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

Yeah, I feel like, at the very least, it neuters The Bills more than it does them and puts them at borderline equal playing field. I think The Bills are no doubt more talented, but I feel like they have a better run game. I don't think we will see a lot of passing in this game. We cannot make any mistakes. No turnovers. It would be devastating I think. I doubt field goals will even be a thing.

 

If we lose this one, I am not sure I ever want homefield "advantage" again. I am almost wondering if we would have been better off losing in Miami and playing on the road. I hate saying that because I usually like the comfort of home, but our offense cannot air it out in this type of weather. 

I think you just found the "out" if the Bills lose. It won't be McD's fault, the roster, player execution , etc... Rather it will be the weather. 

 

So hope this doesn't happen. 

31 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Rudolph throws a moon ball that won't be happy in that wind. However Pickens is a contested catch monster.

Pitt has been pounding the rock well lately. Harris and Warren have looked very good down the stretch. 

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My thoughts heading into the weekend

 

1. The short to medium passing game should be the order of the day.  

2. Likely to be a 2 Qtr game into wind/against wind

3. Rudolph to Pickens is heating up.  

4. Friermuth is going to be a handful

5. If there was ever a game the pass rush needs to get home, this is it.

6. Figure Harris is going to get 20-25 carries in this game.  Warren another 10

7. I was advocating bringing Lenny F back.  Figured he had fresh legs.  Not seeing it.  They really haven't thrown to him yet.  Might be the game to try and get him some YAC.

8. With the exception of 90, Pitt looks reasonably healthy for this time of year.

9. I think this is a Joseph game.  Need to clog the middle to keep their OLINE off of Bills 2nd level.

10. FGs might be hard to come by. 

11.  FTLOG, could we have a few offensive wrinkles in the game we haven't seen before?  Some creativity.  

12. I'm encouraged by Allen saying he felt the 4th qtr was the best he has felt throwing the ball all season.  Hoping that is going to carryover into the playoffs.

 

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1 hour ago, TH3 said:

Do you have any actual stats to back up this hot take?

I was mostly going for the James "Butter Fingers" Cook humor.  The eye test has been obvious for me but here is a post that supports what my eyes tell me.  I would like to see Fournette get a few more touches because he has a history of fumbling less and is also more physical, which I think will be needed this weekend.  

 

McDermott obviously knows a zillion times more than I do so (for this week only :) ) I will defer to his judgement.
 

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18 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

I'm going to dispute that very general statement with two points.  First, an opinion, Rudolph will not be throwing "moon balls" in Sundays weather.  Second, fact, his throw for the long TD vs. the Ravens was on a rope and a great throw with some mustard on it.  Granted it was 15-20 yards in the air, but that is exactly the type of intermediate range pattern they will likely run in Sundays weather.

 

 

If you're gonna dispute it, dispute it.

1) Does Rudolph throw or not throw a moon ball? A "rope" of 15 yards isn't what I was referring to.

2) Would said moon ball be more or less affected by the wind?

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31 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

This seems like a bit of hyperbole. I’ve seen the forecast from my trusted weather sources. Sat eve the temps plummet and it gets windy as hell (50 mph gusts). We are fortunate the game isn’t scheduled for Sat night. By Sunday at 1pm there’s a 30% chance of scattered snow but no real accumulation. Winds 20-30 but trending a little less towards the 4th Qtr, and no huge gust predictions.  Sunday night temps are in the low teens and that’s when 2-4 inches is expected.  Of course this could all change but 4 days out it’s coming into focus.

I was going by the Don Paul podcast someone linked here.

12 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I think you just found the "out" if the Bills lose. It won't be McD's fault, the roster, player execution , etc... Rather it will be the weather. 

 

So hope this doesn't happen. 

Pitt has been pounding the rock well lately. Harris and Warren have looked very good down the stretch. 

Yeah, it could be Sean's get out of jail free card. It also just makes me sad, if we lose this and sense it was because of the weather(like the first Pats game of 2021) because then we have to wonder if working so hard to get "home field advantage" is worth it. I don't blame the crappy weather in the divisional game last year, but I don't think it helped. Do they keep trying for home field and hope there will be a year where the weather isn't god awful? Don't get me wrong, it's January, it's Buffalo. I get that, it's just that it's not going to be just bitterly cold, or just windy, or just snowy, it's all of the above. It's a lot.

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14 minutes ago, wjag said:

My thoughts heading into the weekend

 

1. The short to medium passing game should be the order of the day.  

2. Likely to be a 2 Qtr game into wind/against wind

 

The Bills in this win streak have not been explosive really. Which is good, because the kind of game they will need to play this Sunday is the same kind of game they’ve been winning lately. Ball control, move the chains, don’t be reckless and dumb.

 

McDermott and the captains need to be smart with the field direction. They must have the wind in the 2nd and/or 4th Qtrs. Those are the two long Qtrs with all the timeout usage, 2 min warning, guys getting out of bounds, extra plays,etc.  

There was a wind game either last year or a couple years ago where our opponent had the wind advantage in the 2nd and 4th Qtrs. That was egregiously bad decision making and coaching. That can’t happen Sunday. 

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I'm worried about the weather, like most here.  But what I like about it is that if we CAN take a lead of more than a score, we'll be sitting pretty.

 

I don't think they can come back against us, if they need to pass in that weather w/ Rudolph.

 

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2 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

Bad, sloppy, weather favors the less capable team. Especially, with unicorn passer. Will the mafia inspire the players more than the weather detracting form the better team? We will see. Sucks.

 

If Buffalo was a pass happy explosive chunk play team i’d be worried,  but instead they are more grind it out and tough D lately. Plus we have the QB that goes off script and makes play with his legs. They don’t. That’s huge in weather.

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3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

They must have the wind in the 2nd and/or 4th Qtrs. Those are the two long Qtrs with all the timeout usage,

See! You should be HC. I just have so little confidence that these guys think like this. I could be wrong

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1 minute ago, Since1981 said:

See! You should be HC. I just have so little confidence that these guys think like this. I could be wrong

 

If the Steelers manipulate the coin toss to have the wind in the 2nd AND 4th Qtrs i’m going to rip my 60” TV down and throw it out on the street. It’s our stadium, our weather and McDermott should know how to play it.

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2 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

If the Steelers manipulate the coin toss to have the wind in the 2nd AND 4th Qtrs i’m going to rip my 60” TV down and throw it out on the street. It’s our stadium, our weather and McDermott should know how to play it.


how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

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1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

If the Steelers manipulate the coin toss to have the wind in the 2nd AND 4th Qtrs i’m going to rip my 60” TV down and throw it out on the street. It’s our stadium, our weather and McDermott should know how to play it.

Please educate how a team can "manipulate" the coin toss?  Or how a single team could pick both 2nd and 4th qtr directions.

 

To my understanding, let's say we win the toss...

1. If we Defer, then Steelers would take the ball.  Then we get to decide kicking direction (hence 2nd qtr option).  2nd half, Bills would elect to receive and Steelers pick kicking direction (hence 4th qtr impact)

2. Vice versa if we lose the toss or decide to receive (instead of defer)

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

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34 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

The Bills in this win streak have not been explosive really. Which is good, because the kind of game they will need to play this Sunday is the same kind of game they’ve been winning lately. Ball control, move the chains, don’t be reckless and dumb.

 

McDermott and the captains need to be smart with the field direction. They must have the wind in the 2nd and/or 4th Qtrs. Those are the two long Qtrs with all the timeout usage, 2 min warning, guys getting out of bounds, extra plays,etc.  

There was a wind game either last year or a couple years ago where our opponent had the wind advantage in the 2nd and 4th Qtrs. That was egregiously bad decision making and coaching. That can’t happen Sunday. 

The offense vs Miami was very good with the exception of turnovers and finishing in the red zone. Basically, the Bills stopped themselves more than Miami stopping us. 

 

The Bills had several plus 20 yard plays. Allen was 30-38 for 360125  yards. That's really good. The Bill rushed for over 125 yards. That's really good. 

 

I feel like in the right environment weather wise the Bills offense would be successful against Pitt. I have less confidence in a very windy, cold, and snowy atmosphere. 

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23 minutes ago, uninja said:


how do you “manipulate” a coin toss?

 

When you win the coin toss you can choose to:

1) Receive

2) Kick

3) Defend a goal

4) Defer first choice to the second half.

 

The other team gets first dibs in the second half. In most conditions, a team will defer the first-half decision upon winning the toss, in order to have first choice in the second half (which would be Receive) and have a chance to double-up with the last possession of the first half and first possession of the second.

 

The toss-losing team invariably takes the ball after a defer but in extreme conditions like wind, it can be advantageous for a team to defend the the goal "with the wind" for the first/third quarter even at the expense of kicking the ball away, in order to take the wind for the second/fourth.

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8 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Ive been impressed with how physical we have been as well.  I think we were more physical than Miami and Dallas obviously.  but thought we matched the intensity of two teams that wanted to be physical (Chargers and Patriots).  Both teams seemed to want to punch us in the mouth and I thought we did a good job of responding (miscues didnt seemed to be physicality related).  

You know were one of the better red zone teams in the league right.  We struggled last two weeks but were still really good.  If theres a trend, its us figuring out our passing game.  havent heard any talk of Diggs missing in action this week when that was all the rage last week.  we missed some plays against the pats, and were really close against the phins (but our mistakes just all went as TOs).  Sorta think this is the week we put it all together.  

 

I feel the Diggs AWOL hype is just a bone media got ahold of and ran with... They have to go with something.

 

Defenses focus a lot of attention on taking Diggs out of the game which means Shakir and Kincaid and others get more room to operate.

 

Diggs is just fine and they are finding creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Please educate how a team can "manipulate" the coin toss?  Or how a single team could pick both 2nd and 4th qtr directions.

 

To my understanding, let's say we win the toss...

1. If we Defer, then Steelers would take the ball.  Then we get to decide kicking direction (hence 2nd qtr option).  2nd half, Bills would elect to receive and Steelers pick kicking direction (hence 4th qtr impact)

2. Vice versa if we lose the toss or decide to receive (instead of defer)

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

 

At least the game i’m recalling I believe the Bills deferred and kicked with the wind in the First Qtr, opponent had wind in 2nd Qtr.  
Then Opponent kicked off gave us the wind in the 3rd and they had it again for the 4th.

I don’t like that strategy.

So it was a McDermott’s plan to force the opponent to go into strong winds on their opening drive. hoping to get the ball back quickly and get an early lead. So not really manipulating, just dumb decision in my opinion 

Edited by zow2
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1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

 

So I'm trying to follow how a single team can control (or manipulate as you say) both 2nd and 4th qtr. Unless they give up a possession (which to me is just dumb).

(Username is appropriate)

12 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

"I'm not sure anybody wants really to play the Bills right now because they're not sure what they're going to get. They are hoping to get the inconsistent. If they get hot Josh Allen, look out," (Peyton) Manning said.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/10/peyton-manning-josh-allen-bills-playoffs-super-bowl

Heck we fans don't know what we are going to get and yet we watch with keen anticipation

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1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

I feel the Diggs AWOL hype is just a bone media got ahold of and ran with... They have to go with something.

 

Defenses focus a lot of attention on taking Diggs out of the game which means Shakir and Kincaid and others get more room to operate.

 

Diggs is just fine and they are finding creative ways to get the ball in his hands.

 

 


I mean fr, guy has over 1k yards for the season and we’re acting like it’s bad or something. What I do know is that on some 3rd down ‘gotta have it’ moments in the stretch since Brady took over he was there. He’s not getting the most yards, but when we REALLY need them he’s there.

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5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The offense vs Miami was very good with the exception of turnovers and finishing in the red zone. Basically, the Bills stopped themselves more than Miami stopping us. 

 

The Bills had several plus 20 yard plays. Allen was 30-38 for 360125  yards. That's really good. The Bill rushed for over 125 yards. That's really good. 

 

I feel like in the right environment weather wise the Bills offense would be successful against Pitt. I have less confidence in a very windy, cold, and snowy atmosphere. 

Wowsers, that's a lot of yards. 

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injury report not looking great - Rasul, Rapp and Gabe all DNP

Dodson limited

 

Steelers get Minkah Fitzpatrick back after missing 3 weeks 

 

Thank God Daquan has 2 games under his belt back, he has looked good and will be a big part in stopping run game

Idk if new thread worthy but feel like Hines would've been huge in this brady offense, mainly in passing game. 

Ty Johnson has looked pretty good andvis way less talented

Edited by JerseyBills
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2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

injury report not looking great - Rasul, Rapp and Gabe all DNP

Dodson limited

 

Steelers get Minkah Fitzpatrick back after missing 3 weeks 

 

Thank God Daquan has 2 games under his belt back, he has looked good and will be a big part in stopping run game

Idk if new thread worthy but feel like Hines would've been huge in this brady offense, mainly in passing game. 

Ty Johnson has looked pretty good andvis way less talented


If there’s ever a week for Rasul to miss it’s this one vs a run first team in bad weather. 

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10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis.  

 

At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points.  Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players.  As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results.  So it's hardly a positive.  

 

You say that the running game has looked better.  What do you mean by that?  What's your "viewing" baseline?  

 

That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data.  

 

I look at it like this.  If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever."  But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible?  Make sense?  

 

Here's the thing:   Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues;  They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson.  They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense.  Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth.  That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case.  They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter.  So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side. 

 

 

 

 

 

Can't argue against any of that. From a workplace point of view, I would argue the manager has now given the tools to the workers to complete the job to the best of their ability; now it is time for them to execute their tasks. Whereas before the workers were being hamstrung by the manager's requirements - receivers ending up in the same zone, poor play calls at key times, seemingly struggling to manage the QB's mental state. 

 

I do part of the issue is Brady is having to work with Dorsey's playbook whilst slowing implementing his own style. Think is was Fournette who said he has never seen something so complicated when he first joined. 

 

Does this all mean I have faith in the offense? No, sadly not. Other than the Cowboys - which was a very different approach - and the Eagles, it has not looked really good since the home win against the Dolphins. If it clicks, then the Bills could finally win a Superbowl. If it doesn't we could be sitting here next week with nothing to talk about but the close season.

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a few interesting stats:

 

the steelers have never beat the Bills in the month of march

 

in their history of playoff games both teams have had their lead rushers have at least 1 carry and 2 yards in every matchup

 

the bills when wearing white helmets combine with the the steelers black helmets make a gray color

 

when trailing by 1 or more points at the end of the 4th quarter the trailing team has never won/cameback.

Edited by boyst
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8 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

When you win the coin toss you can choose to:

1) Receive

2) Kick

3) Defend a goal

4) Defer first choice to the second half.

 

The other team gets first dibs in the second half. In most conditions, a team will defer the first-half decision upon winning the toss, in order to have first choice in the second half (which would be Receive) and have a chance to double-up with the last possession of the first half and first possession of the second.

 

The toss-losing team invariably takes the ball after a defer but in extreme conditions like wind, it can be advantageous for a team to defend the the goal "with the wind" for the first/third quarter even at the expense of kicking the ball away, in order to take the wind for the second/fourth.

The Marv/Kelly era Bills did this at home several times in bad weather with good results. 

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If the wind and snow hold up to be true I wonder what affect that might have on the gameday roster.   I would consider have 4 RB's maybe so even if Ty Johnson clears protocol you might still want Murray and Fournette.  Maybe you go with 4 WR's without Gabe or sit Morris and use Edwards as the 3rd TE for blocking.  On defense do you need to add at LB?  Certainly if Dodson is not available that is a loss.  Actually after looking at the roster and practice squad there is no one else to add.  All you really have is Bernard, Spector and WIlliams before it's Matekevich.

12 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

 

Steelers are second lowest in turnovers in the NFL, the Bills are closer to the bottom, I agree that will be key this game.

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