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Steelers @ Bills. Monday, January 15th at 4:30pm.


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Listening to a caller on WGR say he’s coming up for the game from PA.  His wife is a Steelers fan and he said “I can’t wait to get back home and rub it in her face.”

 

um….

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5 minutes ago, IBTG81 said:

Najee Harris didn’t practice with a knee injury. Do we know anything about that?

I think he's missed a practice a week for a little while.  I had Jaylen Warren on my fantasy team so I paid attention to Harris's status.  At the moment I assume this is just continuing the pattern.  If he misses Friday that would be a bigger deal.

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5 hours ago, Toledo Bill said:

These are not the old “soft lines” of past years. Jones in the middle of the D Line and an improved offensive line should make us a lot tougher.

loved an earlier post that called Spencer Brown our “Rob Ray”.

 

 

 

Shades of Ronnie Harmon 

Comparatively, Cook's catch looked easier.

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44 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

That was so classic, and classy.

*absorbs question and information it contains*

*starts to say something, stops*

*starts to say something else, stops*

4 seconds pass

finds perfect rejoinder: 

"Go Bills!"

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22 minutes ago, DeltaDigital said:

same same. buffalo by 3. a win, plus a bet cashing. Christmas 3! 

I am not sure a field goal to allow us to win by three will be in play 😕

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He's done better than I expected as well, however, we've only played three teams among the top-13 scoring teams.  10 of the 17 games we've played have featured teams ranked 19th or worse, again, including four games against the 29th, 30th, and 31st scoring teams.  

 

Of those three teams, we played well vs. Miami but we own them.  Dallas we played well but Philly loaded up on us.  So outside the division 50/50.  

 

Once again, our issues have not been the regular season.  They've been the playoffs where we cannot seem to be teams seeded better than 5th or at home.  So this playoffs will be a defining playoffs.  

 

Of our last 7 games while Brady's been the OC, where our scoring has been below our season average, having played New England with Zappe, the Chargers with Shtick, the Jets with Wilson, or even the Chiefs w/o Pacheco and no WRs worthy of note except for a developing rookie, tough shouldn't really be a feather in our cap.  

 

Pittsburgh's not even a top offense, they rank 28th in scoring although they have been playing better under Rudolph, to the tune of over 9 points better than their season average on the whole, despite having played two Ds ranked 21st and 25th in those three games.  They have logged a bunch of very long TD drives however.  

 

We're all hoping for a win, but deep down most of us realize that we haven't been stellar in the playoffs under McD.  This is a fantastic opportunity for him to alter that perspective and existing paradigm and associated narrative.  

 

 

 

 

Nice post. The playoff failures are the very reason why I've been banging the drum for a new coach. Hopefully, a McD lead Bills team can have more success this year. Losing to Pitt would be borderline catastrophic. Perhaps, an over simplification but you get the point. Imho, it would take many fans to the breaking point. Hopefully, we don't go there. 

 

However, your numbers  implicate McD and the Bills should win the game. Pitt is the exact kind of playoff opponent McD beats. A less than stellar team with an average to poor QB. I believe his defense will have great success vs Pitt. McD does get first round wins. 

 

I'm more worried about the offense here. The turnovers continue to be concerning. It's really feast or famine with Allen from series to series almost. It almost feels like I'm on edge watching the offense play. Am I the only one saying no turn no turnover no turnover while watching the offense? It's pretty nerve wrecking. The Pitt D gets turnovers. No Watt is huge though. 

 

I believe the Brady honeymoon phase is over. He's by far better than Dorsey but there's tape and tendencies that teams can now evaluate. Pitt will absolutely have a solid game. IMHO, the Bills offensive talent should prevail but weather can be a huge detriment. 

 

Can't wait til Sunday. 

Edited by newcam2012
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2 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

How are we feeling that it looks like the team practiced indoors today? It is cold and windy today and I was kind of hoping they would practice outside, but of course I am no expert on what the correct way to do this is.

I would like to see a split practice, some outdoor work would be good i would think.

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3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Looks like Elam should dress for this game. 

If I'm McD I play more 4-3 this week. Spector looked good. Williams should not be a liability in coverage and should add some nice pop.

Maybe even play Taron at safety if they want to go with a three safety package wit Rapp hurt.

So in one week’s time, completely change the system that McD had run for the last 6 years and move a spot corner to safety, something he’s never played. What could go wrong here lol??

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2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Appreciate the speed reference but gonna disagree that 237 is undersized.  That is above average for a LB all time per RAS and the league is trending down.  Also he is the heaviest LB on the team.  So yeah i dont like losing our heaviest LB that is good against the run.  Felt like you were implying that he was a coverage guy with the undersized and speedy comment.  I agree this is the game to choose to be missing coverage players.  


Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 


Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

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51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Nice post. The playoff failures are the very reason why I've been banging the drum for a new coach.

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

However, your numbers  implicate McD and the Bills should win the game. Pitt is the exact kind of playoff opponent McD beats. A less than stellar team with an average to poor QB. I believe his defense will have great success vs Pitt. McD does get first round wins. 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm more worried about the offense here. The turnovers continue to be concerning. It's really feast or famine with Allen from series to series almost. It almost feels like I'm on edge watching the offense play. Am I the only one saying no turn no turnover no turnover while watching the offense? It's pretty nerve wrecking. 

 

I believe the Brady honeymoon phase is over. He's by far better than Dorsey but there's tape and tendencies that teams can now evaluate. Pitt will absolutely have a solid game. IMHO, the Bills offensive talent should prevail but weather can be a huge detriment. 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us.  We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Can't wait til Sunday. 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 

Edited by PBF81
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5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  

 

 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

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5 hours ago, JustAnotherBillsFan said:

I would like to see Fournette get more touches as well. The problem with "letting James cook" is that he seems to get butter on his fingers too often.  😀

Do you have any actual stats to back up this hot take?

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12 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

 

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions.  

 

On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners.  LOL 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Mango said:


Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 


Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

That’s his RAS at time of draft. If you update it to the current database you see a change in numbers. Most particularly a big jump in his weight. Sorry size I was going with weight cause yes he is short. Are you only using height to see he undersized. I would say he probably is more dense than most too considering his height weight.  I find the change in weight interesting cause the database is always updating. His increase of 0.5 is very indicative that LBs are trending smaller. So in terms of weight not undersized. Lastly 5.00 is average so he’s above average. That might fall as poor in his categories but it’s average. 
 

Edit he’s got ok size when RAS recalculated. Mostly held back by his height. Which is meh to me. If this was limited to players in the past 10 drafts I suspect his size would be good and not just ok. Also shuttle and 3 cone is why i didn’t consider him speedy from my eyes. He’s good in a line but wow change of direction bad as you note. Can’t believe you called very poor agility speedy 

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33 minutes ago, Mango said:


Per your request to use RAS, his composite grading is below: 


Size: Poor

Speed:Great

Explosion: Good

Agility: Very Poor

 

I don’t know what you’re arguing with me. Dodson has been a good starter for us this year.

 

I prefer he was playing. 100%.
 

But like I said in my OP, if we’re going to miss an undersized and fast LB I’m glad it’s against Pittsburgh in the rain and wind, rather than in Miami when it’s a perfect 70 degrees.

 

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=19786&ovl=Bills

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.

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11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, if it's whiteout conditions.  

 

On the flip side, good opportunities to lose sight of runners.  LOL 

 

 

I keep alternating between thinking The Bills should wear all red/blue or all white. 

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28 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yeah, the regular season hasn't been the problem for sure.  No one has complained about our division wins or regular season record.  But our postseason performance hasn't even approached matching that, in any way, shape, or form.  

 

 

 

Having said that we get first round (aka WC Round) wins is one thing, but our D has still underachieved in those games.  Last season vs. Miami (Thompson) for example put up their season offensive average plus a defensive TD with Skylar Thompson at the helm, including a 75-yard drive late in the 3rd to pull within a FG.  In '20 we allowed the Colts with Rivers to log their most offensive yards all season and within four points of their season average.  They nearly beat us.  In '19 and '17 we lost our WC games.  The only game that our D played well was vs. NE featuring Jones as a rookie, but we also got plenty of help from Allen and the offense putting the game away by the half with Allen having a career game.  

 

So yeah, while we do get first round wins, it's hardly been because of our defense playing even average.  

 

 

 

Completely with you there.  There's a lot of narrative hype re: Brady that simply isn't true.  Cook isn't resurgent, in fact, other than for the Dallas game he's playing worse than he ever has over any stretch.  Diggs' numbers have all but been halved and he's got one receiving TD under Brady vs. 7 under Dorsey.  Allen's averaging 1.4 passing TDs/game, down from 2.1 under Dorsey.  That's not to say that Dorsey was good, he wasn't.  It is to say that Brady's no better if not worse.  

 

Our offense has averaged a pathetic 19.3 PPG over the past three games, none of which were against above-average defenses.  Remember, we needed a defensive TD to beat the Pats, otherwise they'd have swept us.  We also didn't play well against the Chargers with their crap D and Bosa out, Shtick at QB and a bunch of third-rate WRs with Allen out too.  

 

 

 

Yeah, be good to find out what happens.  The more research I've done however the more concerned I've gotten.  I originally thought this would be a blowout, now I'm not so sure.  If we play, offensively the way we have over the past three weeks we'll be lucky to win.  I don't see 20 points winning this game for us.  We're not playing Zappe, Stick, or a half-depleted Miami offense, we're playing one that's averaged 27 PPG and with a QB that's playing well above-average on a team with a very good coach.  We are playing a team that's playing a helluva lot better football now they have the rest of the season prior to Rudolph starting.  That will get them up for the game.  Also, and in fairness, we're talking about a QB that's never been given a reasonable chance to start for more than 6 games completed, now he has, and he's got a 120.3 Rating over those three games.  We are at home, so that helps.  

 

Having said that, we are still the better team, simply not playing like it recently.  Hopefully we won't be arguing the reasons for it following the game.  

 

 


I think it’s down to the eye test that makes the offense look better under Brady. Despite the lack of points scored, the movement down the field seems easier and more dynamic. How many points were left on the board because of individual errors? The Cook drop, the Johnson incident, Josh’s first INT (miscommunication with Davis seems seriously bad this year, under both Dorsey and Brady). But then they don’t appear to have receivers run in the same area, as under Dorsey. The reliance on Diggs isn’t so prevalent, as you noted above. Shakir seems to be developing well, and Kincaid being an increasingly important part of the offense. I’ll believe you when you say Cook has been worse under Brady but generally I think the running game has looked better. Then, personality wise, whether after a fair or foul play, Josh seems more on a level now. It felt like we saw the “deer in the headlights” look from him more often than not whilst Dorsey was OC.
 

I’m not saying Brady should be hired on the spot, nor disputing what you highlight in your post, but I can appreciate why others are feeling more positive about the offense, despite the low PPG return.

 

As an aside, I cannot imagine two teams who sacked their OC mid-season meet in the play offs that often.

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12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.

I think there is a good discussion math bomb that could be had about his data set. Particularly about how players have changed. If we look at the last 10 drafts I don’t think Dodson would be undersized considering how much his score increased from 2019 (suggesting most players were below his 237 weight). I think the old school thumper LBs are skewing the dataset. What looks like meh size is probably above average considering the way the body type of position has changed with increase of spread offenses

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16 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

I keep alternating between thinking The Bills should wear all red/blue or all white. 

Red on offense; white on defense :D

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As expected, McDermott provided little new injury information other than that Taylor Rapp is out with a calf injury.

 

Banged Up Bills as usual watched film carefully and was willing to take some educated guesses

 

https://bangedupbills.com/2024/01/09/buffalo-bills-vs-miami-dolphins-week-18-injury-review/

 

Per Trimble:

Gabe Davis, reported PCL tear, 1-4 weeks assuming it's grade 1 or 2, likely out at least 1 game

Tyrel Dodson, likely AC Joint sprain, possible labral tear.  May practice with a red jersey and a brace, we'll see how it goes

Rasul Douglas, Bangedup thinks possibly knee contusion, painful and limited mobility due to swelling but if they can rehab him and get it down, might play?

Ty Johnson, concussion.  A good sign that he was already limited in practice, because they're not allowed to practice if they still have symptoms.  I hope to hell Jerome Baker gets fined by the league, and I hope the refs get called on the carpet for not calling that.

 

He didn't have Taylor Rapp on his list for a calf injury or say anything about it.

 

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I think Brady is able to see the big picture better than Dorsey. Dorsey I believe, could draw up great plays but just didn't have a feel for the game. There are many great plays that look great on paper but if you can't think about what needs to be done to fool the defense your toast. In fact, I think this is Brady's bread and butter. He just seems to know what play to call and when.

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2 hours ago, BRH said:

Listening to a caller on WGR say he’s coming up for the game from PA.  His wife is a Steelers fan and he said “I can’t wait to get back home and rub it in her face.”

 

um….

That's a good fan right there. Leave the enemy at home.

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52 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

They're talking whiteout conditions now. I don't see this as being some shootout. It's going to be a low scoring game and probably who ever makes the least mistakes, wins!

That's the scary part for me. That's right in Pittsburgh's wheelhouse. 

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10 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

I think it’s down to the eye test that makes the offense look better under Brady. Despite the lack of points scored, the movement down the field seems easier and more dynamic. How many points were left on the board because of individual errors? The Cook drop, the Johnson incident, Josh’s first INT (miscommunication with Davis seems seriously bad this year, under both Dorsey and Brady). But then they don’t appear to have receivers run in the same area, as under Dorsey. The reliance on Diggs isn’t so prevalent, as you noted above. Shakir seems to be developing well, and Kincaid being an increasingly important part of the offense. I’ll believe you when you say Cook has been worse under Brady but generally I think the running game has looked better. Then, personality wise, whether after a fair or foul play, Josh seems more on a level now. It felt like we saw the “deer in the headlights” look from him more often than not whilst Dorsey was OC.
 

I’m not saying Brady should be hired on the spot, nor disputing what you highlight in your post, but I can appreciate why others are feeling more positive about the offense, despite the low PPG return.

 

As an aside, I cannot imagine two teams who sacked their OC mid-season meet in the play offs that often.

 

I understand that, but keep in mind that narratives often if not typically form based largely upon pop-opinion and without any objective basis.  

 

At the end of the day games are still won by scoring points and preventing points.  Our offense has scored fewer per game and our D has allowed about the same, and that including against a third-rate Charger offense, the horrible Pats, the Jets, a Chiefs team without its second best skill position player on offense, and a Miami team minus two of its three top offensive skill position players.  As mentioned, Dallas and Philly were a wash in results.  So it's hardly a positive.  

 

You say that the running game has looked better.  What do you mean by that?  What's your "viewing" baseline?  

 

That's what I have trouble with, this "eye test" stuff that ignores any data.  

 

I look at it like this.  If we went to work and simply said "I feel great, better than ever."  But we didn't perform whatever it is that we do better, but argued that we were performing better than we ever have, how is that possible?  Make sense?  

 

Here's the thing:   Pitt likely won't be a slumping Dallas team with road issues;  They're not playing a QB like Shtick, Jones, or Wilson.  They're not missing their starting skill position players on offense.  Their current QB is playing better than anyone they've had since Roeth.  That could be temporary from a "newness" of sorts, but untio that proves to be the case.  They're also not missing their top WR, or any of them for that matter.  So it's really going to be a different team than most that we've faced since Brady was installed as the OC, on either side. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's the scary part for me. That's right in Pittsburgh's wheelhouse. 

Yeah, I feel like, at the very least, it neuters The Bills more than it does them and puts them at borderline equal playing field. I think The Bills are no doubt more talented, but I feel like they have a better run game. I don't think we will see a lot of passing in this game. We cannot make any mistakes. No turnovers. It would be devastating I think. I doubt field goals will even be a thing.

 

If we lose this one, I am not sure I ever want homefield "advantage" again. I am almost wondering if we would have been better off losing in Miami and playing on the road. I hate saying that because I usually like the comfort of home, but our offense cannot air it out in this type of weather. 

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One of the weather channels here in Rochester saying they won't know for certain about snow amounts for a few days, but they "think" right now most snow won't come until Sunday night into monday. Hopefully that's true, but still too far out. 

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57 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I did not realize Dodson was so fast. 

As far as undersized, that's as may be and the weights on the team roster page or NFL stats are often draft weights and inaccurate by the time the guy's been in the league a bit.  But just based on those, Dodson is about our chunkiest (heaviest) linebacker.


I think all of our linebackers are fairly undersized. It was part of the criticism coming into the season. They’re still undersized but playing way better than most of us expected. 

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

That’s his RAS at time of draft. If you update it to the current database you see a change in numbers. Most particularly a big jump in his weight. Sorry size I was going with weight cause yes he is short. Are you only using height to see he undersized. I would say he probably is more dense than most too considering his height weight.  I find the change in weight interesting cause the database is always updating. His increase of 0.5 is very indicative that LBs are trending smaller. So in terms of weight not undersized. Lastly 5.00 is average so he’s above average. That might fall as poor in his categories but it’s average. 
 

Edit he’s got ok size when RAS recalculated. Mostly held back by his height. Which is meh to me. If this was limited to players in the past 10 drafts I suspect his size would be good and not just ok. Also shuttle and 3 cone is why i didn’t consider him speedy from my eyes. He’s good in a line but wow change of direction bad as you note. Can’t believe you called very poor agility speedy 


Let’s compromise and agree that Dodson is a girthy fellow that we both prefer to have around. 

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