Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

 

Browns are 7-4, and to get to 11-6 would require 4-2 against this schedule - LAR, Jax, Chicago, Houston, NYJ, Cincy - Possible but... they don't have a QB so its hard to say.  

Steelers are 7-4 and to get to 11-6 would rerquire 4-2 against this schedule - zona, NE, Indy, Cincy, Seattle, Baltimore (might be resting starters but i doubt they let KC get home field if buffalo gives KC a 4th loss).  

Indianapolis is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Tenn, Cincy, Pitt, atlanta, Vegas, Houston

Houston is 6-5 and would need to 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Denver, NYJ, Tenn, Cleveland, Tenn, Indy

Denver is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Houston, LAC, Detroit, NE, LAC, LV

 

As bad as every like bad team is - theres no way all 5 of them don't drop a game to Chicago, Tennessee, LA chargers, Jets or NE, etc.  These are all flawed teams as much as buffalo, and in many cases much more than buffalo.  It'd take an epic stroke of bad luck to win out and miss the playoffs - but i think they can win 4 and still miss.  

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

[Gman10]

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Edited November 27, 2023 by Gman10

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

Fair point

[Seventeen]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Browns are 7-4, and to get to 11-6 would require 4-2 against this schedule - LAR, Jax, Chicago, Houston, NYJ, Cincy - Possible but... they don't have a QB so its hard to say.  

Steelers are 7-4 and to get to 11-6 would rerquire 4-2 against this schedule - zona, NE, Indy, Cincy, Seattle, Baltimore (might be resting starters but i doubt they let KC get home field if buffalo gives KC a 4th loss).  

Indianapolis is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Tenn, Cincy, Pitt, atlanta, Vegas, Houston

Houston is 6-5 and would need to 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Denver, NYJ, Tenn, Cleveland, Tenn, Indy

Denver is 6-5 and would need to go 5-1 to get to 11-6 against this schedule - Houston, LAC, Detroit, NE, LAC, LV

 

As bad as every like bad team is - theres no way all 5 of them don't drop a game to Chicago, Tennessee, LA chargers, Jets or NE, etc.  These are all flawed teams as much as buffalo, and in many cases much more than buffalo.  It'd take an epic stroke of bad luck to win out and miss the playoffs - but i think they can win 4 and still miss.  

 

I'll say this - i don't think any of those 5 teams wins 11 games, and i doubt buffalo does either.  

 

Every year is different but Miami got in @ 9-8 last year with a conference record of 7-5. 10-7 might get it done.

[JoshAllin]

9 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Not winning the super bowl is what 31 other teams will be doing but being there is still impressive even if you lose

Edited November 27, 2023 by motorj

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

Steelers lose to Ravens, and Seahawks. They finish 11-6. They grab a wild card spot.

Colts lose to the Raiders, Steelers and the Texans. They finish 9-8.

 

Browns lose to the Jags, Rams and Texans. They finish 10-7 (I think they will actually lose more than this).

 

Texans lose to the Broncos. They finish 11-6. They snag a wild card spot.

Broncos lose to the Lions and split with the Chargers. They finish 10-7.

 

—

 

Bills get the third wild card in this scenario at 11-6, and there aren’t any major upsets. At 10-7 we miss on tie breakers to the Browns and Broncos think, but I think the Browns are going to finish worse than 10-7 and the Broncos could easily drop another game (like vs Texans).

Edited November 27, 2023 by DapperCam

[Big Turk]

I can't believe the odds are that high honestly

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

If this offense shows up the rest of the season, winning out is more likely than not.

[Drew21PA]

I mean Sean has to be right eventually

 

he Has single-handedly cost Josh Allen 3 comeback victories in close games this season

 

patriots

broncos

eagles

 

[Jauronimo]

38 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

If we make the playoffs its because we won out beating Miami, Dallas, and KC.  If the Bills manage to get into the post season we will be the last team in the league any anyone wants to face.

[Jauronimo]

15 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

I mean Sean has to be right eventually

 

he Has single-handedly cost Josh Allen 3 comeback victories in close games this season

 

patriots

broncos

eagles

 

Don't even talk about the Pats and Broncos games.  Those games never should have come down to the wire.  The offense held a combined lead in those games of 4 minutes.  As in they trailed absolute trash teams all game and woke up for one scoring drive in the waning minutes of the game.  Josh Allen and the offense pissed away 6 quarters of football with turnovers and horrendous play creating the conditions for their heroic comebacks.

[Gman10]

23 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

If we make the playoffs its because we won out beating Miami, Dallas, and KC.  If the Bills manage to get into the post season we will be the last team in the league any anyone wants to face.

Problem is we probably aren't beating all 3 of those teams. Id love it, but in two weeks we can easily be 6-7.

[Drew21PA]

30 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Don't even talk about the Pats and Broncos games.  Those games never should have come down to the wire.  The offense held a combined lead in those games of 4 minutes.  As in they trailed absolute trash teams all game and woke up for one scoring drive in the waning minutes of the game.  Josh Allen and the offense pissed away 6 quarters of football with turnovers and horrendous play creating the conditions for their heroic comebacks.

….but did they have the lead at the end?

 

why does this only matter with the bills but hey we worship guys like Brady and manning that out their team ahead with 1 minute left and should win the game every time…

 

 

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Drew21PA said:

….but did they have the lead at the end?

 

why does this only matter with the bills but hey we worship guys like Brady and manning that out their team ahead with 1 minute left and should win the game every time…

 

 

No, they lost those games by failing to put up points against ***** teams.

 

Did Brady and Manning make careers on terrible play for the 3 quarters followed by one competent scoring drive?

[RiotAct]

0.0%

[PBF81]

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by PBF81

[boyst]

2 hours ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

i want to figure out what it takes to get MHJ.

[RiotAct]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Which would be more heart wrenching?

 

Going 4-1 or 5-0 and losing agian in the wild-card or divisional rounds, or missing out.

 

Asking rhetorically, but who has any faith that even if we made it, that we'd do anything more.  

 

This "making the playoffs" thing, just like in the 90s, has gotten old.  

 

We have one of the best QBs in the game, the bar is significantly higher.  

 

missing out completely, IMO.

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

missing out completely, IMO.

 

Yeah, views are obviously going to digress on this one.  

 

 

[brianb386]

After playing with the ESPN playoff machine, I think we need to win out in order to get in. I also think it is highly unlikely that we beat both the Chiefs and the Cowboys in consecutive weeks, but if we do win out, I think we take the division as we would sweep the Dolphins who I believe will lose to the Cowboys and the Ravens (and then us).

[Rocbillsfan1]

4 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

If Josh Allen can continue to play like he did yesterday. Winning out is not impossible.

Have you seen our coach though? 

2 hours ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

A learning year, is this a joke lol. What is McDermott learning, how to continually be outcoached and lose games that statistically he shouldn’t? He’s highlighting if anything that he isn’t the right guy for the job.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

 

 

You really think the Dolphins will finish with 12 wins with the Ravens, Cowboys and us on their schedule? I don't. They're a team that habitually folds near the end of the year. They could turn that around but I'd have to see it.

 

My guess is 10 or 11 wins. They could win 12. My guess is they won't. That would leave it up to us.

 

A realistic scenario where the Bills are 11-6, the Fins are 12-5 and the Bills make the playoffs? There are tons of them.

 

One?

Fins 12-5

Bills 11-6

Browns 11-6

Texans 10-7

Steelers 10-7

Colts 10-7

Broncos 9-6 

 

There are also plenty where we'd lose. That's generally the way theoreticals work, but we could very easily get in.

 

Last year in the AFC, two Wild Card winners had 10 wins and none had 11. Same the year before and that's all the experience we have with 17 game seasons.

 

Let's say that it's not just us but the Browns also who put up 11 for the first time this year. We're still in.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Thurman#1

[BigDingus]

A win vs KC would go a long way in boosting this team's confidence, but I'm worried there's not a lot of confidence going into the game. 

 

Thankfully, this team seems to always want to prove themselves against the Chiefs, so this may be the last chance to turn things around.

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

[frostbitmic]

8-9 or 7-10 isn't good enough to make the playoffs.

[Nester]

Whelp, on to the draft.....

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

A win vs KC would go a long way in boosting this team's confidence, but I'm worried there's not a lot of confidence going into the game. 

 

Thankfully, this team seems to always want to prove themselves against the Chiefs, so this may be the last chance to turn things around.

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

 

 

All too true.

[SCBills]

Steelers and Browns are both playing with fire every game and are bound to start losing some games... but to date, they both have 4 losses and keep winning rock fights against meh opponents - so how are we to just believe that will stop happening?

 

Texans are good, but also young, and could hit a rough patch.. but given their schedule, that's more of a hope than expectation.  

 

And now we have to worry about the Colts and Broncos.  

 

Dolphins could hit the skids with their final 2 games before our season finale, but they don't seem capable - yet - of losing to bad teams... and I don't love having to hope they remain a team that can't beat good teams.  

 

 

[Livinginthepast]

Although I would love to make the playoffs because anything can happen, its tempered by the reality that even if we do, we have a coach who wont be able to make a decisive move in a game that will help us but actually is far more likely to blunder and hurt us. The amount of stars that would have to align for McD and this current team to win a SB would be staggering. We would need to pretty much play perfect offense in every playoff game and score 30+ points, We would need to have luck and actually be the recipient of a freak play (for once), we would need good officiating (Huge longshot) and we would need our opponents to shoot themselves in the foot. All of this to mitigate the bad decisions that McD would make if in a high pressure close game (which he has difficulty winning post season). Its all possible but highly unlikely with our injuries and poor coaching.

[mannc]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I honestly had that thought today. Trade Diggs (save a bunch of money) draft Harrison and Rome O and we are loaded at receiver for great value for st least five years. 

Pipe dream of course, but no reason we can’t land a terrific WR in round 1, even without trading up. Rome O or Troy Franklin would be awesome.  One thing we’ve leaned from these loaded WR drafts is that there is no way to know which guy will turn out to be the best.

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

People give the Dolphins crap for only beating teams with losing records, but that just means they always beat who they SHOULD beat. If the Bills could've just done that, we wouldn't be in this situation right now 😕

I don’t really think the Dolphins are better than we are, but they always beat the teams they should, and we don’t.  What makes us so high variance and the Dolphins low variance? Or maybe they are just better….

[dorquemada]

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Playoff seeding based upon record: OUT!

Playoffs now determined by lottery ball drop machine.  "Hey, you never know!" 🙄

 

You know, that might be a fun idea in the NFL, keep the current playoff structure otherwise but add a team in each conference through a lottery.  It would be comedy gold to see a team like the Jets get a chance and go on a run

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Pipe dream of course, but no reason we can’t land a terrific WR in round 1, even without trading up. Rome O or Troy Franklin would be awesome.  One thing we’ve leaned from these loaded WR drafts is that there is no way to know which guy will turn out to be the best.

I don’t really think the Dolphins are better than we are, but they always beat the teams they should, and we don’t.  What makes us so high variance and the Dolphins low variance? Or maybe they are just better….

 

The answer is coaching.  McDopey will get outcoached in the 2nd half by every single NFL coach.

[Freddie's Dead]

[nedboy7]

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

[RiotAct]

Just now, nedboy7 said:

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

we also would have had to beat the Bengals at home in the Championship Game - something the Chiefs were unable to do the following Sunday.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

Those other 5 teams play eachother quite a few times though.  Two will likely separate from the pack and beat up on the others.  Getting in at 10-7 as wildcard 3 is fairly likely if we can beat kc somehow 

 

not saying we’re capable of that necessarily just that the probability of getting in with 10 wins is better than people think 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[BullBuchanan]

The Bills team we saw yesterday probably loses 3/5. If there's a bet that I can make that they lose 2/5+, let me know because I'm very interested.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Gman10 said:

We are not making the playoffs. Even if we do, we are certainly not winning a Super Bowl. Let's chalk it up to being a learning year and be ready for next year with Milano back, etc..

Huge if but if were entertaining this hypothetical that we win out or finish 4-1 I don’t see why we couldn’t win the superbowl 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

At least I’m now convinced that “13 seconds” saved us from a horrific collapse in the SB.  The gods are kind. 

Biblical character Job is actually nedboy7. 🤔

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The Bills team we saw yesterday probably loses 3/5. If there's a bet that I can make that they lose 2/5+, let me know because I'm very interested.

Really?  I disagree.  Took a lot of luck for the eagles to pull that one out and they’re arguably the best team in the league that was playing at home

 

They wouldn’t hit both that jump ball to zaccheaus and 59 yard fg into the wind/rain once in probably 50 more tries 

 

what I don’t know is if we’ll play like that every game down the stretch.  I’m expecting a 3-2 finish and missing the playoffs by a game but 4-1 has a chance.  Winning out would be a miracle 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

20 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

You know, that might be a fun idea in the NFL, keep the current playoff structure otherwise but add a team in each conference through a lottery.  It would be comedy gold to see a team like the Jets get a chance and go on a run

 

The answer is coaching.  McDopey will get outcoached in the 2nd half by every single NFL coach.

The 'purists' would holler bloody murder.  Leave all the finagling to bad and/or crooked officiating. 😁

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Really?  I disagree.  Took a lot of luck for the eagles to pull that one out and they’re arguably the best team in the league that was playing at home

 

They wouldn’t hit both that jump ball to zaccheaus and 59 yard fg into the wind/rain once in probably 50 more tries 

 

what I don’t know is if we’ll play like that every game down the stretch.  I’m expecting a 3-2 finish and missing the playoffs by a game but 4-1 has a chance.  Winning out would be a miracle 

We wouldn't beat KC or Dallas with that effort for certain. Philly played like ass the first half. We should have put up 18 more points based on the opportunities we were handed, but we couldn't close. We won't get that lucky the next two weeks.

I expect the better McD in Miami to learn from his previous mistakes and give us a much tougher game unless it ends up being meaningless for them.