Has Josh Allen reached his ceiling?

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

No he will get better with experience and play smarter

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, billsfanmiamioh said:

 

This may be the booze talking but I think I’ve come to the realization that he’s not bringing home a ton of hardware, like we may have thought 2-3 years ago. 
 

Sometimes alcohol provides a lot of clarity. 

[John from Riverside]

He’s probably getting pretty close to it
 

Now continue to improve the weapons around him, and his protection

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

 

Personally I absolutely believe Josh Allen can get better. Because I think he can be more consistent. I still feel like 2020 was his most consistent season as in game to game. I actually think it some ways he is a BETTER Quarterback now than he was in 2020, but he hasn't played as consistently. I think the majority of that is in Josh's head.

 

His offensive line has been a legit excuse in 2021 and 2022 but while nobody is confusing the Bills 2023 Oline for the Hogs it has been an average, serviceable NFL line. I still think there is some legitimacy to the weapons point, particularly at receiver, but I think there is a tendency to overstate it. Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir and Davis isn't bottom of the barrel and James Cook has been really good as a dual purpose back. He is 4th in the league in rushing and of the 3 above him only the obvious - CMC has outperformed him as a receiver. 

 

It just comes down to Josh playing consistently. If he goes on a tear the rest of this season there is no game the Bills can't win. But I just don't know how much I trust his mental state to be able to do that.  I hope the coordinator change sparks something either because Dorsey was a big part of the problem or even if he wasn't because it triggers a kind of mental reset in Josh.

[Your Brown Eye]

I'm going to say no. When he consistently, game in and game out, takes what the defense gives him and methodically hits the open receiver (which he has and puts up ridiculous numbers). Then his ceiling will be hit.

[Buffalo Ballin]

Screw Madden. The game sucks anyway. Why are people disagreeing with the Madden Cover curse? It's well documented.

[H2o]

Josh has solidly been in the MVP convo for 4 years now. He is widely recognized as a top 5 QB in the NFL, except by those who usually still have an ax to grind for whatever petty reasoning they hold onto. He is always around 5,000 total yards or more every season and about 45 TD's during this stretch. When you take into account what he's had around him, these numbers really come into perspective. 

 

There is no QB in the NFL who has accomplished more with less. The only one even close is Lamar, but Lamar has always had a better OL by far and that system they run was tailor made for him. Josh has been this team's entire offense since he stepped on the field. They brought in one, single, legit weapon in Diggs and Josh exploded. Imagine if Josh had played with Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce, with Reid and Bienemy coaching him. Imagine if Josh's WR room was Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Imagine if Josh had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, AB, and Gronk a few years back like Brady did. Heck, imagine if Josh had Tyreke Hill, Jalen Waddle, and the healthy stable of RB's the Dolphins had at the beginning of the year when they were hanging 70 on Denver. Even still, Josh has produced at an elite level for 4 straight years. 

 

The bobbleheads and clowns always want to focus on his turnovers. But when you're doing more, with less, than any other elite QB in the league, when you're constantly having to wear the Superman cape, then there will be some bad mixed in with the good. Despite leading the league in turnovers the last 6 years, which they absolutely LOVE to talk about, he also has accounted for THE MOST TD's ever, you know, in the HISTORY of the game, over a player's first 6 years. And he still has 6 games left to go. Romo got one thing right, and that was when he called Josh an alien. The guy makes throws that no other QB can make on the field. The windows he fits the ball into, at the velocity those throws come in at, from different stances or arm angles, is just unreal. On balance, off balance, throwing back across his body, from one side of the field to the other, and 60 yards or more in the air. It's a thing of beauty. 

 

Has Josh reached his ceiling? Depends on what they put around him. Even if this is his ceiling, a record breaking, consistently top 5 QB who is legitimately in the MVP convo isn't that bad. If they add a legit #2 this off-season, Shakir continues to develop in the Slot, Kincaid at the TE position, and Josh grows even more adept to taking what the defense gives him? Watch out. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by H2o

[Buffalo03]

9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Really? I would think 5,000 passing yards is a bigger stretch than 50 TD's. He's on pace for his 4th straight 40+ TD season. If anyone playing football today can put up 50+ TD's in a season it would be him. 

I meant moreso over 40 TD passes alone. With closer to 50 TDs with rushing included. He has had at least 4500 passing yards in a season already in his career but again, how much more do you want? You realize both those things are really hard for one QB to get in a season, right?

[mead107]

Brady reached his his ceiling in his 3rd year

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, Augie said:

We should sell high. Very high. 

 

I wouldn't take less than a 2nd rounder.

[Big Turk]

Not even close.  Does he even have a ceiling?

[dollars 2 donuts]

Yes, he has reached his ceiling, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be even better, if that makes any sense to you.

 

if the surroundings around him are better, he will be even better.  Those surroundings include coach and coordinating.

 

BTW, the “ceiling” right now is leading the entire NFL in passing touchdowns.

 

FYI, Josh Allen is only the 3rd QB in Bills history to be leading the nfl in passing touchdowns (we all know he also leads in all touchdowns). The two previous times our signal callers finished at #1:

 

Kelly in ‘91 (31)

Fergy in ‘75 (25)

 

I like this ceiling.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level

This quote says it all, though I'm not sure why we needed a thread for this thought.

 

 

[frostbitmic]

Under Dorsey and Dabol before him I'd say he maxed out. With a new OC, be that Brady or someone else, his game could still be elevated. A new red cape and a better #2 WR could do wonders as well.

[Mr. WEO]

Newbie thread quality has reached its basement 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

I meant moreso over 40 TD passes alone. With closer to 50 TDs with rushing included. He has had at least 4500 passing yards in a season already in his career but again, how much more do you want? You realize both those things are really hard for one QB to get in a season, right?

 

My ceiling for him is 60 and 6,000. Now that is tough, lol.

 

But that is the kind of talent he has. He gets on hot streaks. From the end of the 2021 season through the start of the 2022 season he was on a 9 game stretch at one point including playoffs where he had something like 30 TD's to 4 turnovers. That has been his ceiling up to this point, but those numbers come close to the 60 and 6,000. We will see if he can reach that ceiling again and maintain for a season. With the extra game now, those will be the new numbers to hit. I think the current record is maybe 55 TD's so one extra game puts a QB very close to 60. 

 

[RunTheBall]

Josh has reached a plateau. It’s up to him to break through it.

 

He’s always been a little immature, which is something most loved about him. The happy elite gunslinger just having fun.

 

We’re seeing this year the weight of expectations taking a bit of a toll. Everyone can see his head hasn’t been right for most of the season. Why? Who knows.

 

If Josh decides to dedicate his entire year to becoming the best QB he can be, like Brady (uggh) did, then I don’t think Josh has come close to his ceiling. That means taking care of his body and mind all year long, something I think he’s kind of taken for granted until recently.

 

If he doesn’t, then we will be left with a Top 5 highly variable QB that we can still win a championship with. If he does, he could be a first ballot hall of famer with a couple SB rings on his hand.

 

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I absolutely believe Josh Allen can get better. Because I think he can be more consistent. I still feel like 2020 was his most consistent season as in game to game. I actually think it some ways he is a BETTER Quarterback now than he was in 2020, but he hasn't played as consistently. I think the majority of that is in Josh's head.

 

His offensive line has been a legit excuse in 2021 and 2022 but while nobody is confusing the Bills 2023 Oline for the Hogs it has been an average, serviceable NFL line. I still think there is some legitimacy to the weapons point, particularly at receiver, but I think there is a tendency to overstate it. Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir and Davis isn't bottom of the barrel and James Cook has been really good as a dual purpose back. He is 4th in the league in rushing and of the 3 above him only the obvious - CMC has outperformed him as a receiver. 

 

It just comes down to Josh playing consistently. If he goes on a tear the rest of this season there is no game the Bills can't win. But I just don't know how much I trust his mental state to be able to do that.  I hope the coordinator change sparks something either because Dorsey was a big part of the problem or even if he wasn't because it triggers a kind of mental reset in Josh.

Josh has normal trust issues imo.

 

He didn’t trust the OL to start 2023. He was bailing out of the pocket in like 1 second predicting them to fall apart. He has settled in a little bit more as the season as gone on. 
 

I think he doesn’t trust Davis on the contested catches anymore. He’s starting to trust Shakir and Kincaid. He trusts Diggs over everybody. And when Diggs is beating coverages consistently, Josh is consistent. When Diggs ain’t, Josh ain’t.
 

Money-wise, I think it’s impossible but trading for a Diontae Johnson-type guy next year to pair with Diggs would completely unlock Josh, imo. Diggs, Johnson, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, rookie WR would probably best one of the best pass catcher groups in the AFC.

[HOUSE]

Depends on the team around him, the ceiling could be 2 years from now, who knows?

[Draconator]

I look at my ceiling quite often when my wife, oh never mind...

[Sherlock Holmes]

He has reached his basement floor and his ceiling is still 100 floors up

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh has normal trust issues imo.

 

He didn’t trust the OL to start 2023. He was bailing out of the pocket in like 1 second predicting them to fall apart. He has settled in a little bit more as the season as gone on. 
 

I think he doesn’t trust Davis on the contested catches anymore. He’s starting to trust Shakir and Kincaid. He trusts Diggs over everybody. And when Diggs is beating coverages consistently, Josh is consistent. When Diggs ain’t, Josh ain’t.
 

Money-wise, I think it’s impossible but trading for a Diontae Johnson-type guy next year to pair with Diggs would completely unlock Josh, imo. Diggs, Johnson, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, rookie WR would probably best one of the best pass catcher groups in the AFC.

 

Yea Gabe is gone. Whatever they do at WR2 needs to be an upgrade. Either via trade or draft. 

[hondo in seattle]

13 hours ago, AZSanta said:

I have been an Allen supporter since he was drafted. I felt he was a perfect fit for the city. He is in year 6 of his career and has put up fairly consistent stats the last 3 years. Have we seen his best football or can he be better? By better I mean 5000+ passing yards and 50+ total tds. I personally believe he has hit his ceiling. I think he is what he is and I think we can win a Super Bowl with him playing at this level. I am just curios what others opinions are as to what they expect from him the rest of his career.

 

No.   I think to see Josh at his very best...

 

(1)  Get him an OC that can make optimal use of his unique skill set while at the same time correcting/covering up his flaws.  Dorsey wasn't that guy.  

 

(2)  Get him an OL.   This year's OL is probably his best yet.  But I'd love to watch Josh with time to operate behind an elite line.  A dominant OL would also force defenders to respect the run game instead of sitting back in two-high zones.  

 

(3)  Get him a better receiving corps.  In fact, I'd be thrilled with just one change: replace Gabe with a speedster with hands.  

 

Do these three things and Josh will start winning MVP awards and setting even more records.  

 

 

 

[AZSanta]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

We should sell high. Very high. 

I'm not saying we should trade him. I love watching him play. As I said I believe we can win a Super Bowl with him as is. I ' think we will see Drew Brees or Tom Brady level of excellence from him. I'm okay with it.

13 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I think he can hit 5000 passing yards eventually but 50 TDs might be a stretch. How much more do you want from him? Lol

I said i believe we can win a Super Bowl with him. I don't see him going to another level like Brees, Brady, Mahommes, and Manning.

[Mikie2times]

I think 2021 was his ceiling (for now). He was nearly perfect in several games that year. He had a coordinator that understood what he needed to be successful. Defenses had yet to adjust to what we see now, so you got to see his full skill set on display. Teams didn't spy him all the time. They didn't slow rush him so he was able to escape a lot which opened his rushing and improvisation more. Things we just don't see nearly as often as teams have taken it away. 

 

I think a better question would be what would he need to do in order to be better. From my perspective the offensive system needs to be a better fit. Dabs was excellent at designing plays that helped Josh be deliberate with his decisions.  His weapons need to be a better fit. He is made for a big body WR and we have never given him one. Somebody like a Courtland Sutton with a big catch radius. Then I think it's just about maturity and personal and mental growth. As a player and as a person. He appears to me to still be somewhat stuck in that college mindset. "let's get F'in wasted". You see it in his golf outings. All that is fine. But it speaks to what I'm saying. An extremely well adjusted person at the top of his craft is not doing those things. A CEO of a company does not ask that person to run his business. He see's it right away, that person just isn't ready yet. 

[AZSanta]

12 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

What do you have to support your contention besides your own belief? This is a strange post. 

Yep. 

I am going by his past 3 seasons with similar stats mid 4000 passing yards and just above 40 tds. Combine that with his psychological issues and I think we have seen the best he can give from him. I love the guy I have 2 of his Jerseys, one up on my wall. He is the best thing to happen to Buffalo since Levy, Kelly, and Polian.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I think 2021 was his ceiling (for now). He was nearly perfect in several games that year. He had a coordinator that understood what he needed to be successful. Defenses had yet to adjust to what we see now, so you got to see his full skill set on display. Teams didn't spy him all the time. They didn't slow rush him so he was able to escape a lot which opened his rushing and improvisation more. Things we just don't see nearly as often as teams have taken it away. 

 

I think a better question would be what would he need to do in order to be better. From my perspective the offensive system needs to be a better fit. Dabs was excellent at designing plays that helped Josh be deliberate with his decisions.  His weapons need to be a better fit. He is made for a big body WR and we have never given him one. Somebody like a Courtland Sutton with a big catch radius. Then I think it's just about maturity and personal and mental growth. As a player and as a person. He appears to me to still be somewhat stuck in that college mindset. "let's get F'in wasted". You see it in his golf outings. All that is fine. But it speaks to what I'm saying. An extremely well adjusted person at the top of his craft is not doing those things. A CEO of a company does not ask that person to run his business. He see's it right away, that person just isn't ready yet. 

An extremely well adjusted person at the top of their craft isn't playing golf? 

[AZSanta]

12 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Stupidity thread. 

I/m sorry my opinion offends you snowflake

[Augie]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea Gabe is gone. Whatever they do at WR2 needs to be an upgrade. Either via trade or draft. 

 

I was one holding out hope that he could become a steady and complete WR. Sadly, it looks like that will not happen in a Bills uniform. I can live with that, especially when I keep hearing about how strong and deep the WR draft class is. We just need to nail one or two of those guys and we will be set with Diggs, Kincaid and the supporting cast. 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

An extremely well adjusted person at the top of their craft isn't playing golf? 

They don't hit the course and shotgun beers as the status quo. Plenty of people in this world with self control. Nobody is going to pick a person who doesn't have that to lead an organization. 

[JaCrispy]

The Patriots and Chiefs were his ceiling…And that’s fine with me, because you can’t get any better than that…

 

So, now the question becomes ‘how consistently can he be at, or near, his ceiling?’

[AZSanta]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I cannot wait to bump this thread in a couple years

I will be ecstatic if i'm wrong. So lets revisit this when he is 35 years old.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

They don't hit the course and shotgun beers as the status quo. Plenty of people in this world with self control. Nobody is going to pick a person who doesn't have that to lead an organization. 

Is that the status quo when he golfs?

[Mikie2times]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Is that the status quo when he golfs?

he has videos on youtube that get posted of his golf outings. I used to drink like he does. Not exactly hard to spot the type. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, AZSanta said:

I will be ecstatic if i'm wrong. So lets revisit this when he is 35 years old.

No offense but I question whether you would recognize his ceiling if you saw it

 

The consternation around Allen this year is fascinating to me...he is playing the most efficient ball out of any QB in the league rn in the midst of probably his best season ever and people can't stop talking about what's wrong w him.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No offense but I question whether you would recognize his ceiling if you saw it

 

The consternation around Allen this year is fascinating to me...he is playing the most efficient ball out of any QB in the league rn in the midst of probably his best season ever and people can't stop talking about what's wrong w him.

You're basically insulting the guys because he asked a pretty legitimate question. You're so sensitive about anything to do with Josh it's hard to even have a logical conversation with you. You have eyes dude. He single handedly lost us the Jets game and probably at least one more if you're being honest. You will cling to EPA. When EPA doesn't fit your narrative it will be TD's. When TD's doesn't fit your narrative it will be other players. On it goes, the cycle of the insanity. The OP never said Josh wasn't an elite QB. Get off the horse.  

[jethro_tull]

Talent level- yes.  Game smarts, decision making and maturity- no.  

[AZSanta]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No offense but I question whether you would recognize his ceiling if you saw it

 

The consternation around Allen this year is fascinating to me...he is playing the most efficient ball out of any QB in the league rn in the midst of probably his best season ever and people can't stop talking about what's wrong w him.

No offense taken. I certainly there is potential for him to be better. My main concern with him is his maturity level and mental ability to deal with adversity. He seems to take negative games to heart and maybe feels the pressure of the fans and media bashing his turnovers. You can see it in his demeanor when they lose and his post game press conference. I hope he can grow into a more mature QB with age and experience. He needs a mentor. McDermott aint doing him any favors with his coaching style

[KDIGGZ]

Absolutely reached his ceiling athletically 2 years ago and is now in decline. He can continue to play at a high level if he relies less on his athleticism and is able to develop his game mentally. But he got to this point by having a strong arm and scrambling ability and not needing to have good timing and good play recognition so it would be re-learning how to do things.

 

Cam Newton could not do it. As soon as he declined athletically he was done. Michael Vick was able to somewhat. He became more of a pocket passer after prison. Big Ben was never the fastest guy but once he lost his athleticism he was basically a statue out there but he was so big and hard to bring down that he was able to take some hits and still deliver the ball. Could go either way but yes I think Josh has already peaked and it will be a completely different Josh than what we are used to by the end of his contract. If he re-signs we will be signing a completely different guy at that point.

[AZSanta]

2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Absolutely reached his ceiling athletically 2 years ago and is now in decline. He can continue to play at a high level if he relies less on his athleticism and is able to develop his game mentally. But he got to this point by having a strong arm and scrambling ability and not needing to have good timing and good play recognition so it would be re-learning how to do things.

 

Cam Newton could not do it. As soon as he declined athletically he was done. Michael Vick was able to somewhat. He became more of a pocket passer after prison. Big Ben was never the fastest guy but once he lost his athleticism he was basically a statue out there but he was so big and hard to bring down that he was able to take some hits and still deliver the ball. Could go either way but yes I think Josh has already peaked and it will be a completely different Josh than what we are used to by the end of his contract. If he re-signs we will be signing a completely different guy at that point.

Well said. Thanks for your response.