Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

What an S- bag thing to say. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Buffalo619 said:

Thanks for the unnecessary clarification. 

Any time schefter. 😉

[EasternOHBillsFan]

WHY is this clown still employed??? Going from the Bills to the Phins has fried his brain!

 

Quote

"Bold prediction: The Bills have not allowed 500 yards of offense in a regular-season game since Sept. 20, 2015, but that streak will end Sunday as the Dolphins -- who are averaging 550.3 yards per game -- continue to surge." -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38512820/nfl-week-4-picks-schedule-fantasy-football-odds-injuries-stats-2023

[Blank Stare]

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I saw our old friend Marcel Louis-Jacques predicted that Miami would put up 500+ yards against our D on Sunday.  Does anyone think that's a realistic possibility, especially in Buffalo?

Marcel has turned into a bit of a douche since he’s left Buffalo. I enjoyed his interview earlier this week on GR about how he said how much he loves the city, but the dude is always trying to poke the fans with his takes. 

[fergie's ire]

43 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

Believe me, I felt ashamed watching Bart AND Stephen A, but Ryan Clark is usually reasonable, but he seems to think it's going to be Josh vs the whole Miami team, and that Josh will try and do too much and fall short. I don't know, I felt bummed after watching it. Maybe because it's just feeding into my own worries about this game. I feel like Miami looks way more cohesive right now, and feel like The Bills are still trying to find their rhythm. I hate how negative I am feeling about this one.

I do agree about that. 

 

I guess they are just feeding into my own fears about this game. Man, I want nothing more than for The Bills to prove them wrong this week.

Do you remember how we looked vs how Miami looked going into the first time we played last year?  Do you remember how Dallas looked going into the game last week?  We know very little about how good any of these teams are yet.  I'm not sure what to expect on Sunday....or any given Sunday, for that matter.

[That's No Moon]

24 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:

Marcel has turned into a bit of a douche since he’s left Buffalo. I enjoyed his interview earlier this week on GR about how he said how much he loves the city, but the dude is always trying to poke the fans with his takes. 

Click bait is his actual job. Why can't we seem to learn this?

[Aimee75]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

Approx 2/3 of what I'm seeing are picking the Bills

Who are you seeing picking them? Just about every group of sports media I have been watching have pretty much had a "good luck Bills" attitude. 

[BritBill]

51 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:

Marcel has turned into a bit of a douche since he’s left Buffalo. I enjoyed his interview earlier this week on GR about how he said how much he loves the city, but the dude is always trying to poke the fans with his takes. 

He was a precious prick when he was in Buffalo too. 

[Aimee75]

51 minutes ago, Blank Stare said:

Marcel has turned into a bit of a douche since he’s left Buffalo. I enjoyed his interview earlier this week on GR about how he said how much he loves the city, but the dude is always trying to poke the fans with his takes. 

I don't buy that Marcel loves the city. I will never forget that intentionally bad photo he took of Buffalo when he was here, I believe for the playoffs. He's a shady guy.

40 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Do you remember how we looked vs how Miami looked going into the first time we played last year?  Do you remember how Dallas looked going into the game last week?  We know very little about how good any of these teams are yet.  I'm not sure what to expect on Sunday....or any given Sunday, for that matter.

Good points. Keeping me off the ledge for now 😄

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Throw 86 the ball.... beyond 5 yards. 

For real. People complaining about lack of weapons don’t realize that Kincaid could probably catch 8+ balls, if they were actually thrown to him.

 

when the bills offense was clicking in 2020, Beasley was catching like 8+ per game. Kincaid can be that big slot.

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

For real. People complaining about lack of weapons don’t realize that Kincaid could probably catch 8+ balls, if they were actually thrown to him.

 

when the bills offense was clicking in 2020, Beasley was catching like 8+ per game. Kincaid can be that big slot.

Maybe we can give Kincaid a little time.  Beasley had 15 receptions for 128 yards in his rookie season.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

I saw our old friend Marcel Louis-Jacques predicted that Miami would put up 500+ yards against our D on Sunday.  Does anyone think that's a realistic possibility, especially in Buffalo?

 

It's a possibility since Miami has a handful of skill players with the ability to break free and put up big yards on any play, and because McDermott's Ds have a track record of giving up a couple of big plays per game against good teams.

 

However, when you have 3 numbers - 389 (NE), 536 (LAC), and 726 (DEN), chances are that the mean or median are not very meaningful. 

 

It's probably more predictive to ask which of the teams Miami has played, has the closest match for our defense. 

NE has the #5 defense right now for yards.  The Chargers are 30, and the Broncos are 31. 

 

The Bills are #2 (for yards, and for points)

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, as the stockbrokers say. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

I just finished watching Stephen A, Bart Scott and Ryan Clark all say Buffalo virtually has no chance, and that Josh will have to put on his Superman cape(pretty sure Ryan called Josh "dumb" in his analogy) and that we won't be able to stop them, so it will be Superman Josh trying to make miracles happen to keep up with Miami. I feel like I have yet to see any segments where Buffalo is being given a chance. I know at the end of the day it doesn't matter what they say, and what matters is what happens on the field, but I am feeling doom and gloom right now.

 

LOL why are you watching these guys?

 

 

[Aimee75]

17 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

LOL why are you watching these guys?

 

 

Because they pop up on Youtube and against better judgement, I click.

50 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

For real. People complaining about lack of weapons don’t realize that Kincaid could probably catch 8+ balls, if they were actually thrown to him.

 

when the bills offense was clicking in 2020, Beasley was catching like 8+ per game. Kincaid can be that big slot.

Kincaid is great, but they have been using him to help Spencer Brown block, just like they did with Dawson last year. I would love to see him get the ball more, but right now, that is how he is being utilized.

[NewEra]

45 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Maybe we can give Kincaid a little time.  Beasley had 15 receptions for 128 yards in his rookie season.

We need to give Dorsey time.  Kincaid is fine 

[Livinginthepast]

I just want the Bills to have really done their homework for Sunday. McD has been a bit hit and miss in prepping for big games over his career. Some great planning for games like KC last year and Dallas on thanksgiving a few years ago but laid some real duds like vs the Bengals playoff game and the Colts with Wentz in 2021. If we can do a Bellichick type job planning on the defense against Miami we will slow that high power offense down. 

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I hear ya.  Miamis been en fuego.  
 

I’m really high on our d right now.  I love our DL.  They’ll decide the game imo.  If they can bottle up the run, I think we win.  Ed has been best player thus far imo.  So much versatility along the line and LBs.  DL winning their matchups + a good McD scheme.  I believe in him as our DC.  
 

 

As strange as it sounds, I’m almost more confident that our defense will hold them in check than I am in our offense.  
 

I’ve hated the Frazier defenses that feast on bad/mediocre offenses, but this - under McDermott - feels different.  
 

Maybe Miami hits us for more chunk plays than we’re used to, but I also feel like we’ll hit Tua and make plays. 
 

That’s how you beat elite offenses.. not sitting back trying to wait for a mistake and then try to hold in the red zone. 
 

Im not pessimistic in our offense, I just need to see some sort of identity beyond Allen/Diggs/Cook.  Figure out Kincaid or get Gabe or a slot WR going and we’ll be onto something.  

[harryS]

I can vouch for there being a preference for the Bills among sharps.  That's because the sharpest books (i.e. the books whose clientele are more sharp-heavy) are at 3 or juicier 2.5s than the rest of the books.  Sharp books include, among others, Circa, Pinnacle, and CRIS/Bookmaker.

 

It's not a huge preference but the preference is obviously there.  Oh, btw, there were folks on here predicting that we would get a chance to bet the Bills at pick'em / even because of public money.  Never materialized, did it?  Because that's just not how things work. 

 

Of course all of this is meaningless.  Maybe Miami wins by 30.  Maybe Buffalo does.  The line's the line but the players still have to suit up and get it done.

[Bimmer323i]

I’m not at all scared of the Miami defense… I think Allen and company should be able to light em up pretty good on Sunday… I’m expecting all 3 of our backs to have a big day also…

[EmotionallyUnstable]

6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

I posted this in the Kincaid thread, but it probably belongs here.

 

If you look at the season schedule as a whole, this is the first game that you'd bring out different looks as an OC.

I am really looking forward to seeing some innovated uses of some of the new weapons on the Bills.

If we don't see that I will be a bit disappointed in Dorsey and Josh.

 

This is the game to begin to show what Kincaid, Harty, Shakir and Sherfield can do.  Knox has more TDs against the Dolphins than any other team.

Show me what you got Ken!

What do you think about the Miami D that warrants this? I tend to agree with your overall sentiment that we are waiting to see the next level, but I don’t specifically see any reason MIA would be that game to unlock it. 
 

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

We need to give Dorsey time.  Kincaid is fine 

Was this comment intended to mean Dorsey needs more time to work him into the development of the offense?
 

Dorsey needs more time to figure it all out as a whole?

 

Im not comparing the players, but watching LaPorta make plays last night shows it’s certainly possible early on.

 

I think Kincaid WILL be fine, but I think we were all hopeful (even if unrealistically) that he would be more than just fine at this point.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

Because they pop up on Youtube and against better judgement, I click.

 

It's a premise of animal training that if you want to change a behavior, you need to replace it with a positive behavior.

All of us ***** sapiens are fundamentally animals, and if it works to train a cougar or an elephant, it works for us.

[Edit: Oh my goodness, H o m o sapiens is disallowed!  No "Man the wise" here! LOL]

 

So, next time they pop up, try this instead:

-search for One Bills Live Greg Cosell

 

Search for One Bills Live Baldy's Breakdowns

 

Search for team names and Dan Orlovsky

 

 

Now I know that One Bills Live is the Bills in-house Media, but Greg Cosell, Brian Baldinger, and Dan Orlovsky are three of the most respected, football knowledgeable media members around and they don't sugar-coat it.  Watching these will give you a much better, wiser, more reason-based perspective

 

Next, try Cover1.  Now there's a lot of variable coverage being put out by Cover1 these days, as they've expanded from former players/coaches to current fans/journalism majors in their podcasters.  Try something like Cover 1 team names.  I like Anthony Prohaska who films "Disguised Coverage" so I'll search for him:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cover+1+bills+dolphins+anthony
 

 

OK, when you're done with all that, you'll know a lot more about Bills football and various keys to the game, good and bad.

 

And I think you'll find if you attempt to watch some of these Blatherskites, they'll stick in your craw and you'll click elsewhere.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Aimee75]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's a premise of animal training that if you want to change a behavior, you need to replace it with a positive behavior.

All of us ***** sapiens are fundamentally animals, and if it works to train a cougar or an elephant, it works for us.

 

So, next time they pop up, try this instead:

-search for One Bills Live Greg Cosell

 

Search for One Bills Live Baldy's Breakdowns

 

Search for team names and Dan Orlovsky

 

 

Now I know that One Bills Live is the Bills in-house Media, but Greg Cosell, Brian Baldinger, and Dan Orlovsky are three of the most respected, football knowledgeable media members around and they don't sugar-coat it.  Watching these will give you a much better, wiser, more reason-based perspective

 

Next, try Cover1.  Now there's a lot of variable coverage being put out by Cover1 these days, as they've expanded from former players/coaches to current fans/journalism majors in their podcasters.  Try something like Cover 1 team names.  I like Anthony Prohaska who films "Disguised Coverage" so I'll search for him:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cover+1+bills+dolphins+anthony
 

 

OK, when you're done with all that, you'll know a lot more about Bills football and various keys to the game, good and bad.

 

And I think you'll find if you attempt to watch some of these Blatherskites, they'll stick in your craw and you'll click elsewhere.

Dan Orlovsky is usually very reasonable. I do appreciate these links, I just wonder if they sometimes say what we want to hear when they speak with OBL? 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Maybe we can give Kincaid a little time.  Beasley had 15 receptions for 128 yards in his rookie season.

I don’t think it has anything to do with Kincaid. They just aren’t targeting him. That said, I actually think that will change this weekend. 

[DuckyBoys]

Pats have no viable offense and kept it close  If Bills can have a balanced offensive game as they have the past two weeks I feel very confident Chargers cant stop anyone and every game is a shootout and the Broncos basically quit.  I dont think you can ready much from those two games  I think we win and the talking heads will find some new hot take.  Honestly I think the Bills are in a better spot being disregarded vs being the favorites like they were last year.  

[Goin Breakdown]

I can't wait to not have to talk about the dolphins. I suspect it will be this way all season perhaps for the next few years idk. Just can't stand the hype. Tua is the hands downMVP? Seriously? Why? because he has the fastest team built around him and a super innovative coach. Then there coach of the year and Offensive player of the year and on and on. Was it this bad when the Bills were making noise?

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Aimee75 said:

Dan Orlovsky is usually very reasonable. I do appreciate these links, I just wonder if they sometimes say what we want to hear when they speak with OBL? 

 

I'm sure they soft pedal things a bit as far as the verbiage they use, but if you account for that and listen carefully, they're surprisingly blunt.

Greg Cosell is like the Godfather of Film Analysis, especially film analysis of NFL QB - always worth listening to.

 

They're not going to say "yer boy shat the bed last week" they will say "if you turn the ball over 4 times, it's very rare to be able to come away with a win" etc etc.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Bills!Win!]

I have to say I’m not worried about this game. Even if the bills lose I won’t be upset. I can see both teams scoring at least 34 points. 

[sven233]

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

Edited September 30, 2023 by sven233

[Blank Stare]

6 hours ago, Aimee75 said:

I don't buy that Marcel loves the city. I will never forget that intentionally bad photo he took of Buffalo when he was here, I believe for the playoffs. He's a shady guy.

Not saying it didn’t happen, but I didn’t see that. Interesting. He seemed genuine about the city on GR this week. Talked about how he was bringing his girlfriend up with him because he’s talked the city up so much she wanted to come. 🤷‍♂️

 

To each their own I guess. I flew in to Buffalo tonight for the weekend. Hitting the game on Sunday. I always love coming here. One of my favorite places to visit. 

[Mynamemike]

19 minutes ago, sven233 said:

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Bills!Win! said:

I have to say I’m not worried about this game. Even if the bills lose I won’t be upset. I can see both teams scoring at least 34 points. 

It's always interesting when you put your own feelings into a game like it impacts the results.

 

I wasn't worried about the first game in Miami last year and then was worried about the next two against them.

 

This game, I'm really worried about but I'm fine with whatever outcome.

 

Hopefully my worried vs not worried record keeps the wins coming.

[k2mountain]

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

[Pete]

Good morning Bills Mafia. This video will make you smile.  Squish the fish!  Go Bills!

 

 

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

Bills still favored by 2.5

[mannc]

1 hour ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

No

[SoCal Deek]

Weather forecast shows 74 and bright sunshine tomorrow in WNY. Anybody know which team gets the sunny sideline? 😉

[MILFHUNTER#518]

9 hours ago, sven233 said:

One thing I notice when watching the film on the Dolphins offense is not so much what they are doing on offense, but how defenses have played them so far.  They are playing scared.  They get so caught up watching what motions and eye candy they are using, it is just freezing the fronts and LBs and in turn, they are getting blown off the ball by the time they figure out what is going on.  They are reacting instead of dictating and that is giving Tua all day to throw if he needs it, but also allowing him to just lock onto his first read without having to move on.  It is also giving their backs giant holes to run through because the defensing fronts are backing off because they are trying too hard to figure out how to stop the Dolphins offense instead of attacking themselves to just try and shut it down.

 

However, at least to this point in the season, it's been exactly the opposite with the Bills defense.  We have been using both simulated and creeper pressures super well, along with changing up coverages at the snap in order to confuse the opposing offenses.  When doing this, we're still only sending 4 most of the time while dropping 7 in coverage.  But the difference is, we are getting to our spots at the snap, not waiting for the offensive players to get to theirs first and then reacting. 

 

Tua hasn't been touched in the first 3 weeks because the defensive lines and LBs are too busy waiting around trying to figure things out.  That's why when you watch the tape on their offense, everyone is laying on the ground or running backwards trying to play catch-up.  I am pretty sure you won't see us doing that Sunday.  I fully expect that McDermott will see that that key to slowing their offense down is to disrupt their timing.  And how do you do that?  By doing exactly what we have done to this point in the season.  Let our pass rushers loose and play on the opponent's side of the LOS.  You get in the backfield and all of a sudden there are more bodies for their backs to have to run around and get through.  And with our length and range with our edge guys, and the push we have been getting up the middle as well might force Tua off his spot for a change and maybe even force him to go to his second and third reads because the timing is off.  Tua has had it way too easy in these first 3 weeks.  He's hitting his first read 80% of the time.  That just should happen in the NFL.  So, let's see what happens when he finally has trash at his feet and has to look around once in a while. 

 

What I see happening Sunday is the Dolphins hitting a couple bigger plays on us because maybe we don't get home in time, or we miss a tackle or something like that.  Make no mistake about it.....they will make some plays.  But, what I also see is that Tua won't just be sitting relaxed in the pocket without having to move easily hitting his first read every play like he's been doing for the first couple weeks.  Tua will have to move.  He will have to get to a 2nd or 3rd read on plays. They still may score in the 20s, but it won't look nearly the same as what it has in the first few weeks.  Dolphins fans keep bringing up the fact that even though they lost to us multiple times last year, the games were close.  But this is not the same defense the Bills have been running with Frazier.  They aren't going to see a 2 high defense every play with wide open spots in the zones with no pass rush because they knew exactly what our defense was going to do every snap.  They can go back and look at every game from last season.  I hope they do.  But they would be wasting their time.  This defense and the scheme we are using is totally different so far and I expect that if McDermott goes down in this game, he goes down swinging.  I don't see us blitzing much at all.  It will be up to whatever 4  are rushing to get there quick.  If we do, and we play on their side of the LOS, I like our chances.  If we score 27 or more, and don't turn the ball over, I think we win.

This has to be one of the most cogent, well thought out and well written posts I have seen in a while. And I think your analysis is spot on. Good job! 👍 

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

Lines don’t change because a Safety isnt playing.   Just like the line doesn’t change because a Dolphins pass rusher isn’t playing.  
 

These seem like big things, and they can be, but unless you’re dealing with a wave of injuries depleting a position group as a whole, fans usually overestimate the non-QB effect on a game’s line of a missing player or two.  
 

I do believe Von was a line-affecting loss last year, just like Chris Jones impact on the Chiefs defense is probably worth something in Vegas.   But those non-QB players who can move the line a point or two are probably under 15-20 across the entire league … Poyer and Phillips aren’t any of them. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Mynamemike said:

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

 

Interesting analogy.  One factor in the 2019 loss to the Ravens (and our 2022 loss to the Dolphins) was that our defense did a good job containing their offense *most* of the day, but that we couldn't muster enough offense ourselves to counter.  So, mistakes played an outsized role.  The Ravens scored a TD after a strip sack of Josh Allen on 3rd and 8 gave them the ball at our 24 yd line.  Scored 5 plays later. 

 

So avoiding turnovers by our offense (and maybe generating 1-2 on defense) is going to be key.

 

I'll just add that it hasn't been uncommon for our D in past years to take a game to decode an offense.   However, I'm not sure how different the Dolphins offense really is from last year.  They had Morris, Waddle and Hill last season when we played them.

 

2 hours ago, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

 

I thought when a team played at home, being favored by 2.5-3 points was a "Pick'em".

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[DaBillsFanSince1973]