A few topics/stats/info that have not been mentioned

[Einstein]

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

[zow2]

To your point #4,  I actually think the Bills would've sacked Rodgers 7-8 times in that game.  He can't move and the plan wasn't to sit back and get nickel and dimed to death.  Not sure if the outcome would have changed.  NY likely would have had more passing yardage, but the sacks could've resulted in turnovers or more 3 and outs.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

2. Our starting 5 OL all played 100% of snaps. 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 
 

Here is a stat line nobody will want to see. Allen has averaged about 2 turnovers per game since week 1 2022. 
 

https://x.com/getnickwright/status/1701425069946220651?s=20

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, Mango said:

2. Our starting 5 OL all played 100% of snaps. 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 
 

Here is a stat line nobody will want to see. Allen has averaged about 2 turnovers per game since week 1 2022. 
 

https://x.com/getnickwright/status/1701425069946220651?s=20

Do you know who is second Patrick Mahomes and who is third Dak Prescott and who is 4th Matthew Stafford. 
 

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

 

Regarding point 1, you mean they took Tauron Johnson off the field and put Rapp on? They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. So I agree, a base 4-3 would be as light as I’d want to see. 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 40% (2/5) allowing 47% of QB pressures isn’t bonkers. 

It is when the QB is accounting for 26% of the pressure.

Therefore, the line accounted for 74%. An equal pressure rate per linemen would be 14.8% - Or 30% for two of them. 47% is highly disproportionate. 

[Simon]

11 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano.

 

Curious where you saw this?

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Do you know who is second Patrick Mahomes and who is third Dak Prescott and who is 4th Matthew Stafford. 
 

That isn’t true once you calculate fumbles. 
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-nfl-player-from-2022-to-2023

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. 

Correct. Rapp played big nickel against 13 personnel. 

[Jauronimo]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Curious where you saw this?

I guess when Bernard made tackles they were close to LOS.  And when Bernard hit the wrong hole, couldn't shed blockers, and was taken for a ride as the Jets gashed us in the run play, that was a neutral in the proprietary formula.

[78thealltimegreat]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

That isn’t true once you calculate fumbles. 
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-turnovers-by-a-nfl-player-from-2022-to-2023

That’s on you to trash Josh not me 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Curious where you saw this?

Sure. If you have an account, you can sort it here: https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/2023/REG/defense-run?position=LB

"AVDT" is average depth of tackle. 

 

For those who don't have a subscription: 

 

 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

That’s on you to trash Josh not me 

It’s not trashing. It was a bad game. A very bad game with a lot of turn overs for a guy who is prone to a huge amount of turnovers.

 

Talking about our QB averaging 2 turnovers a game for the last 365 days is a very reasonable talking point without you getting all upset about it. 

[MasterStrategist]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

1. Thought we didn't align properly on 2 big runs.  Coach partially addressed during post game presser. I'd rather have Rapp than say Dodson

 

2. Seems right.  McCovern had a lot of Quennin to deal with, thought he did fairly well.  Josh didn't help himself out and playcalls seemed to be designed to get the ball out faster...thought he held it too long several times

 

3. Bernard looked fine to me, he's got to rely on his instincts/beat blockers with quickness to the hole.  He did this as the game went on.  I think he'll continue to be better, and didn't look like a liability

 

4. Impossible to say, depends if Josh plays the same.  He turned it up a notch when needed, then lost that "urgency" immediately in OT.  If I had to guess, it's a 8-10 point loss at most.  I thought Rodgers was holding the ball too long and Zach Wilson, outside of his 1 INT actually played game manager OK.  

[78thealltimegreat]

Just now, Mango said:

It’s not trashing. It was a bad game. A very bad game with a lot of turn overs for a guy who is prone to a huge amount of turnovers.

 

Talking about our QB averaging 2 turnovers a game for the last 365 days is a very reasonable talking point without you getting all upset about it. 

That’s fine I just don’t care for Nick Wright as a man

[MJS]

It's an interesting question regarding Rodgers. For one thing, I think the Bills would have gotten more sacks and QB hits. Wilson is pretty quick and he avoided a lot of sacks. He was being chased all around the field. Rodgers is not as mobile, especially given his advanced age.

 

However, there is no way Rodgers throws that horrible INT that Wilson did.

 

I think the Bills still would have lost, for sure, but I don't know how different the score would be. Maybe the Jets win in regulation instead of overtime.

 

The issue was mostly Josh Allen, plus a few bad play calls. The defense were out of alignment a couple of times and they could have done better on certain plays, but they ultimately did their job. They held the Jets to one TD after being continually hung out to dry by Josh Allen's turnovers.

[ngbills]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Sure. If you have an account, you can sort it here: https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/2023/REG/defense-run?position=LB

"AVDT" is average depth of tackle. 

 

For those who don't have a subscription: 

 

 

This is deceiving because it only takes into account if he made the tackle. Plays he was blocked and the guy runs 50 yards have no impact here.

 

Bernard did not get his first tackle vs run until the midway in the third quarter...says something. Half his tackles came when the Jets were just running the clock down.

 

QTR 1

0 tackes

QTR 2

0 tackles

QTR 3

First tackle was a 9 yard run

Second tackle was a 1 yard run that Oliver stuffed

QTR 4

Third was a 5yd run 

4th was a 2 yd QB sneak setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 4 and 1

5th on a 1 yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 2 and 13

6th on a 6yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 3 and 12

 

23 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I guess when Bernard made tackles they were close to LOS.  And when Bernard hit the wrong hole, couldn't shed blockers, and was taken for a ride as the Jets gashed us in the run play, that was a neutral in the proprietary formula.

I want to see stats on how many times he was pancaked. I saw at least a few. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by ngbills

[BillsUberAlles]

It's week 1. Stuff still needs to be ironed out. I wouldn't read much into it until week 4 or 5.

[chongli]

35 minutes ago, zow2 said:

To your point #4,  I actually think the Bills would've sacked Rodgers 7-8 times in that game.  He can't move

 

He moved well enough to avoid Rousseau on his first scramble. Ugh. [Still annoyed Groot didn't get the sack.]

[Einstein]

42 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

He moved well enough to avoid Rousseau on his first scramble. Ugh. [Still annoyed Groot didn't get the sack.]

I'm confident that he will have many sacks this year. I was concerned about him as a draft pick, but he looks primed for an excellent season.

[Franco_92]

McGovern was probably tasked with Q most often I bet. 

 

He is also not near 100% from what Banged Up Bills said. So not surprising, hope he heals up quickly. Do the raiders have any DTs of note? I know their edges are scary. 

[Success]

Kind of stoked about Bernard. That was such a big question mark coming into the season. He seems up to the task so far.

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

I have nothing to back this up but it seemed when Rapp was in the defense struggled a bit. 

 

I think if Rodgers played the whole game we win easily. He's not as mobile as Wilson, we had game plan for him and he was harassed every play he was in besides the run. 

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

Really good points 

 

I think ince ARod went down and we go into halftime up 10 , i feet like limited adjustments were made. Where as the Jets were forced to make drastic adjustments 

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

This is deceiving because it only takes into account if he made the tackle. Plays he was blocked and the guy runs 50 yards have no impact here.

 

Bernard did not get his first tackle vs run until the midway in the third quarter...says something. Half his tackles came when the Jets were just running the clock down.

 

QTR 1

0 tackes

QTR 2

0 tackles

QTR 3

First tackle was a 9 yard run

Second tackle was a 1 yard run that Oliver stuffed

QTR 4

Third was a 5yd run 

4th was a 2 yd QB sneak setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 4 and 1

5th on a 1 yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 2 and 13

6th on a 6yd run setting up FG w/ 2 min left running clock on 3 and 12

 

I want to see stats on how many times he was pancaked. I saw at least a few. 

Hmmm. I could have sworn that it Was Bernard that chased Hall down on that long run that effectively saved a TD. That was definitely in the first half.

[Simon]

Just now, 2003Contenders said:

Hmmm. I could have sworn that it Was Bernard that chased Hall down on that long run that effectively saved a TD. That was definitely in the first half.

 

It was Benford from the other Corner position

[All_Pro_Bills]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Regarding point 1, you mean they took Tauron Johnson off the field and put Rapp on? They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. So I agree, a base 4-3 would be as light as I’d want to see. 

When Rodgers went down the Bills should have immediately gone 4-3 as it was obvious the Jets weren't going to be airing it out.  Always waiting until the damage is done to adjust rather than anticipating is a constant issue with the staff.

 

Watch and learn Sunday 9/24 how Belichik plays the Wilson led Jets O. It won't be 4-2-5.

Edited September 12, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[HurlyBurly51]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Sure. If you have an account, you can sort it here: https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/2023/REG/defense-run?position=LB

"AVDT" is average depth of tackle. 

 

For those who don't have a subscription: 

 

 

I find that hard to believe.  I specifically remember him making a tackle 10 yards downfield.  So for that math to work, that's a minus 10 and they have his average depth at plus 6, so the other 5 tackles would have had to been TFL of minus 3 each on average.  Didn't happen, so they must not have counted the tackle 10 yards downfield, which makes their analysis dubious.

9 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Hmmm. I could have sworn that it Was Bernard that chased Hall down on that long run that effectively saved a TD. That was definitely in the first half.

🤣That was Benford!

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

When Rodgers went down the Bills should have immediately gone 4-3 as it was obvious the Jets weren't going to be airing it out.  Always waiting until the damage is done to adjust rather than anticipating is a constant issue with the staff.

 

Watch and learn Sunday 9/24 how Belichik plays the Wilson led Jets O. It won't be 4-2-5.

 

The problem is that I don’t know that we have a third LB I’d want on the field. 

[Mr. WEO]

I was expecting W2's and 1099's....

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Regarding point 1, you mean they took Tauron Johnson off the field and put Rapp on? They would be a true Big Nickel package. That’s better than a standard Nickel, but still light going against 13 personnel. So I agree, a base 4-3 would be as light as I’d want to see. 

we don’t have 3 linebackers. We might not have 2. 

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

we don’t have 3 linebackers. We might not have 2. 

 

Funny. I just made that point in a different thread. 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

 

I was thinking about this last night...I think it would have been possibly a tidal wave.  With the Jets D, if Rodgers moved them down for multiple scoring drives in the first half, I think with the mental state Allen was in last night, he would have probably played even worse than he did and pressed even more.

[Einstein]

18 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

we don’t have 3 linebackers. We might not have 2. 

Perhaps we don’t have 3 full time linebackers.

But if Dodson is so bad that he can’t come on the field for just 5 or 10 snaps a game when an opponents offense is in 13 personnel then I question why he has a spot on the roster.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, zow2 said:

To your point #4,  I actually think the Bills would've sacked Rodgers 7-8 times in that game.  He can't move and the plan wasn't to sit back and get nickel and dimed to death.  Not sure if the outcome would have changed.  NY likely would have had more passing yardage, but the sacks could've resulted in turnovers or more 3 and outs.

I agree with this. it seems like Rodgers would’ve been in for a long night. It was only a matter of time before he would get injured.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

We have done a wonderful job covering Allen, Dorsey, Cook, etc. Here are a few different items:
 

1) When the Jets went 13 personnel, McDermott put Rapp into game as a nickel CB to essentially play a LB role. This often resulted in our DB's getting easily blocked and once the Jets rusher made it past the d-line, it was chunks of yardage. The Jets led the league in Week 1 in EPA/rush while in 13 personnel as a result Thoughts on this strategy? Seems... not ideal. Shouldn't we be matching 13 personnel with 3 LB's - especially with an aging defensive backfield of Hyde (32), Poyer (32), and Tre (turning 29 this season)?

 

2) According to PFF,  the RT (Spencer Brown) and LG (McGovern) accounted for a combined 47.4% of the pressures Allen faced. Nearly half of the pressures came from these two positions. Josh Allen accounted for 26.3% of his own pressures. Brown, McGovern and Allen were responsible for iover 70% of the pressure. The other 3 players on the line faired very well. 

 

3) Bernard was better than many (including myself) thought. His average depth of run-tackle was only 1 yard. Same as Milano. 

4) Lastly, just for fun, how do you feel the game would have unfolded if Rodgers hadn't been injured? Do we lose by multiple scores? Do we perhaps do better, knowing that we have to be more careful?

Thanks.  Great post

[Dan in Owego]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

It was Benford from the other Corner position

Yes it was, and it was a heck of an effort.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 hours ago, BillsUberAlles said:

It's week 1. Stuff still needs to be ironed out. I wouldn't read much into it until week 4 or 5.

Not to mention, while yes the pressure came from RT and LG (PFF means grain of salt), Allen actually had a very low pressure rate. 

[Einstein]

51 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Allen actually had a very low pressure rate. 

 

I know Warren Sharp stated that but I have no idea where he got his information from.

 

PFF has Allen being pressured close to 50% of his dropbacks.

[Pete]

3 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

Hmmm. I could have sworn that it Was Bernard that chased Hall down on that long run that effectively saved a TD. That was definitely in the first half.

Benford hustling and saving a TD