Bills-Jets week 1

[Gregg]

Just now, eball said:

For every NFL matchup you can sit down and come up with a half dozen reasons why one or the other team will win, but it typically comes down to who is more talented and who makes fewer mistakes.

 

When I look at this matchup it comes down to the following:  whose OL will do a better job?  Both teams have excellent defenses with strong fronts and secondaries.  Which OL will give their QB the chance to make plays?

 

On paper the Bills' OL is much better than the Jests' OL.  I think that will be the difference maker...Allen will get enough time to make plays, while Rodgers will be constantly harrassed.

 

The Bills now have the players to run legitimate 12 personnel sets.  They haven't had that before, and it puts pressure on the Jests' D.

 

I don't think this will be a one-score game.  Bills by 10.

 

 

Also, Rodgers is 39 and can't really escape the rush. Allen can with his running.

[FilthyBeast]

6 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

 

Me neither because Jets hype train is off the charts and they have massive pressure to not only win but come out swinging against the Bills.

 

Also a majority of major/season ending type injuries happen in the early weeks and I having a revamped offensive line against a top 5 front seven like Jets have to start the season.

[Rocky Landing]

The optimist in me thinks this could be a a great game for Elam, on Garret Wilson, man coverage all day. It is what he excels at. 

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

For every NFL matchup you can sit down and come up with a half dozen reasons why one or the other team will win, but it typically comes down to who is more talented and who makes fewer mistakes.

 

When I look at this matchup it comes down to the following:  whose OL will do a better job?  Both teams have excellent defenses with strong fronts and secondaries.  Which OL will give their QB the chance to make plays?

 

On paper the Bills' OL is much better than the Jests' OL.  I think that will be the difference maker...Allen will get enough time to make plays, while Rodgers will be constantly harrassed.

 

The Bills now have the players to run legitimate 12 personnel sets.  They haven't had that before, and it puts pressure on the Jests' D.

 

I don't think this will be a one-score game.  Bills by 10.

 

 

Reasonable take.

 

Last season in the Bills first meeting, Allen was sacked 5 times, knocked down twice, intercepted twice, only 4 blitzes but 8 pressures.

Basically, the Jets DL had their way with our OL.  Line was Dawkins-Saffold-Morse-Bates-Quessenberry

Second meeting, Bills OL did better but still below par - 3 sacks, 1 knock down, and 3 pressures, no interceptions. 

Line was Dawkins-Saffold-Morse-Bates-Brown

 

 

 

[SCBills]

I really need to see this team man up and play like dawgs.

 

Bengals last year.  Steelers pre-season (I know, I know).

 

Now here come the Jets .. talking their talk.  I know they have dawgs... Q, Sauce, Reed etc.

 

Who are ours?  Will we step up in the trenches and give Allen time / get after Rodgers ... or is this another game where Allen is under siege and our DL (minus Von) is getting clowned by an inferior OL protecting for a QB who can get the ball out quick as we play off coverage?

 

I know we have talent.  I know we have athleticism.  I really hope to see aggression and intimidation from this team on Monday, because that's been the missing piece too often during this run.  A bunch of "good guys" who are easy to root for, but are sus when they match up against talented teams who have an edge/physicality. 

 

That needs to change this season. 

[Rocky Landing]

There are soooo many media pundits who are going to lose their minds regardless of how this game goes. Whichever team wins, especially if they dominate the game, will be crowned the AFCE champs after week one. 
 

But I don’t think this game is as important as all that. The AFCE is the toughest division in the league, IMO. With arms race that has occurred this off-season, I believe it’s going to come down to a war of attrition— especially in the trenches, and the Bills have the advantage in that regard.

 

While all the O-lines in the East are pretty even really, albeit mediocre, the Bills could lose any one of the O-line, and possibly two, without a huge drop off. Neither the Jets, nor Phins can say that. 
 

And while the Bills don’t have the best D-line in the division, it is the deepest. 

[fergie's ire]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Me neither because Jets hype train is off the charts and they have massive pressure to not only win but come out swinging against the Bills.

 

Also a majority of major/season ending type injuries happen in the early weeks and I having a revamped offensive line against a top 5 front seven like Jets have to start the season.

I would really, really love for this game to be the equivalent of when we played the Jets week 1 with Mario Williams and we were thinking how great our defense would be and that we were going to make a run at the playoffs....and got immediately smacked down.  I am not confident that it WILL happen, but it is certainly a possibility and the ensuing meltdown would be awesome.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

I’d take the Jets defensive line hands down over our offensive line… and I’m really not sure how much better our offensive line is than theirs if at all. 

 

Their best O-Lineman is coming back off injury in AVT.  Dawkins, whatever we think of him, is better than anything they have at Tackle and I don't think you'd find too many people taking their IOL over our IOL, albeit projection given McGovern as a new addition and Torrence as a rookie. 

[eball]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I’d take the Jets defensive line hands down over our offensive line… and I’m really not sure how much better our offensive line is than theirs if at all. 

 

Your ability to talent-assess franchises has always been lacking, my friend.  I don't think very many people would agree with you that the Jests' OL is better than the Bills' OL.

 

[fergie's ire]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

usually when Allen gets too “fired up” we get rookie Allen.

Yeah, outside of playoffs, no games get players more fired up than Monday night.  As you can see, Monday night numbers and rookie numbers are virtually identical.  Hard to tell them apart, honestly.

 

Monday Night: Rating 113.9, Pct. 68.3, 18 TDs, 2 Int

Rookie: Rating 67.9, Pct. 52.8, 10 TD, 12 Int

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I'm nervous because I'm always nervous but I'm going to break with people here: I actually like matching up the the Jets week 1 even if it is making the run up excruciating.

 

I hate the hype the Jets are getting. I hate that after four straight years of high level play the Bills are being shunted to the side because the oldest active QB in the league is being grafted onto a team that took out record as longest Big 4 sport playoff drought.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think they are good. They are legit playoff contenders and division rivals.

 

But when I get down to matchups, I think it's close but the Bills have a decided edge Week 1. Garrett Wilson is a beast but Lazard and Cobb have had worse recent seasons that Gabe Davis. 

 

I would take our secondary to limit the Jets WRs to let us blitz and blitz creatively and force the Jets to stick to the run.

 

The Jets have next to no film on Dalton Kincaid and their weak spot (on an otherwise stellar defense) is linebacker. One of their best players is a nickel CB, but that is the kind of matchup the Bills want Kincaid on.

 

Media circus aside, Rodgers hasn't had many game reps with his new offense and it's not battle tested and we have a fresh trump card.

 

Anything can happen but there is a reason savvy betters have the Bills as road favorites. 

[Toledo Bill]

53 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The Jets are a cocky, arrogant group… the last time the Bills played a team like them they got kicked in the mouth and played their worst game of the year.

Hate to agree but I do. I hope the Bills have improved from their “soft” mode.

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

 

Yeah, it's a ballbuster for week 1.  

 

Pros and cons, but Cook & Hall vs. us w/ no bona fide MLB besides a journeyman retread isn't confidence inducing, particularly since Cook tore us a new one last season and last season @ NY Michael Carter and James Robinson led the way in hanging 174 rushing yards on us, with Zach Wilson at QB, who put up a mere 154 passing yards and 1 TD.  

 

Now factor in Rodgers for Wilson, add Hall back in, bring in Lazard whom Rodgers is familiar with, and essentially the same D that held us to 17 points, 317 total yards, 183 net passing yards, and only 19 1st-Downs in Allen's worst-rated, lowest net-yards-per-attempt, highest sacks game, and his only game with 0 passing TDs, and tied for his most INTs.  

 

Pros for us are the OL featuring Bates or Torrence along with McGovern or Edwards, instead of Bates and Saffold.  Also Kincaid although this will be his first start against a tough D.  

 

Those differences favor the Jets.  

 

The biggest issue for me is that IMO the Jets are the only real threat to win the division, and if they take the first game, while they have Cleveland and Houston to our Jax and Cincy, we need to at least split with them.  I don't want the second Jets game to be a must-win.  

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

If you’ve gotta play the jets, week 1 seems like the best bet imo.  Rodgers just hasn’t logged the game time with a lot of these guys yet 

 

also Duane brown, Mekhi becton, Vera-tucker and breece hall will be starting their first games post surgeries(if becton even starts) 

 

away against the jets week 1 and home later in the season was as good as it could’ve worked out for us 

 

it’s pretty reasonable to assume they’ll see some offensive growing pains as Brady started pretty slowly on a much more stacked bucs offense 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Blackbeard]

Game will be won or lost on our linebacking corp.  

 

If they can hold down the short intermediate stuff, we win.   And I think they will, with help from Poyer/Hyde.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I’d take the Jets defensive line hands down over our offensive line… and I’m really not sure how much better our offensive line is than theirs if at all. 

Our O line is better than theirs, at least on paper. My issue is that I trust their o line to handle our d line more than I trust our o line to handle theirs if that makes sense. We don’t have dogs on our d line without Von that take advantage of bad o lines. I expect Rodgers to have a frustrating amount of time to hit targets while I’m just hoping Josh’s elbow remains in tact this time around against them. 

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Really depends on how Becton plays out at tackle/if he can stay healthy… but McGovern is a good Center and AVT is as well inside… but let’s not forget this defensive line got clowned by the back ups of one of the worst offensive lines in football last season to end their season… and I favor the Jets offensive line vs our defensive line compared to our offensive line vs the Jets defensive line…. But Josh’s mobility might make it a wash. 

This.

I figured this is what you meant too. We are aligned. I hope we are wrong but I fully expect everyone in the game thread on Monday to be screaming at our o line while josh is running around crazy to avoid free rushers and Spencer brown continues to whiff. Probably going to be a lot of “why isn’t anyone getting home and hitting Rodgers” too. 

[BigAl2526]

8 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

I think the short passing game is going to be key for the Bills on offense.  They won't be able to protect Josh for a lot of downfield shots.

[stevewin]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

If I can get a clear sightline to the big screen I am content to hang at the rail. I am a little apprehensive that I will miss a lot of football. Or I will be basically on the field watching the game at a bar next to the sideline. 

We are really looking forward to it. Ultimately any concern is just me whining. 

Yeah the cool thing (to me) is that it is behind the Bills bench (vs end zone) so from the rail you should be able to get a real sense of the sidelines on gameday and see some cool stuff - and like you said, can watch the game on the big screen while standing there

[eball]

18 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Our O line is better than theirs, at least on paper. My issue is that I trust their o line to handle our d line more than I trust our o line to handle theirs if that makes sense. We don’t have dogs on our d line without Von that take advantage of bad o lines. I expect Rodgers to have a frustrating amount of time to hit targets while I’m just hoping Josh’s elbow remains in tact this time around against them. 

 

It doesn't make sense to me right now, for several reasons:

 

1 -- I expect McD to be a lot more aggressive than Leslie was.

2 -- Dorsey has had all offseason to work on a short passing game to get the ball out of Josh's hands quickly, and he now has the tools to do so.

3 -- We significantly upgraded LG and Torrence "looked the part" at RG during preseason.

 

I believe the Bills will go into this game with a specific, structured plan to offset the Jests' DL strength.  I trust Dorsey more than I trust Hackett on the other sideline, and the truth is that this Jests' offense really hasn't faced "live ammo" yet.

 

Don't forget that the sharp Vegas money is on Buffalo as a favorite in this game.  Just because we're Bills fans doesn't mean we always have to predict failure.

 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, stevewin said:

Yeah the cool thing (to me) is that it is behind the Bills bench (vs end zone) so from the rail you should be able to get a real sense of the sidelines on gameday and see some cool stuff - and like you said, can watch the game on the big screen while standing there

 

I asked around the Jets subreddit, and somebody mentioned that the 50 Club should also come with tickets in section 139, right on the 50 in the lower bowl. 

I guess I am a fancy boy now!

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It doesn't make sense to me right now, for several reasons:

 

1 -- I expect McD to be a lot more aggressive than Leslie was.

2 -- Dorsey has had all offseason to work on a short passing game to get the ball out of Josh's hands quickly, and he now has the tools to do so.

3 -- We significantly upgraded LG and Torrence "looked the part" at RG during preseason.

 

I believe the Bills will go into this game with a specific, structured plan to offset the Jests' DL strength.  I trust Dorsey more than I trust Hackett on the other sideline, and the truth is that this Jests' offense really hasn't faced "live ammo" yet.

 

Don't forget that the sharp Vegas money is on Buffalo as a favorite in this game.  Just because we're Bills fans doesn't mean we always have to predict failure.

 

Hope you’re right. That’s a lot that has to change and go right for things to go our way this time around. 

[Scott7975]

Yeah its weird. We seem to struggle against the Jets.  Pats seemed to struggle against Miami even with Brady. Miami seems to struggle against us. I expect this is going to be a close fought game.  Week 1's can be pretty flukey too. Can't wait for the season to start!

Edited September 5, 2023 by Scott7975

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, eball said:

For every NFL matchup you can sit down and come up with a half dozen reasons why one or the other team will win, but it typically comes down to who is more talented and who makes fewer mistakes.

 

When I look at this matchup it comes down to the following:  whose OL will do a better job?  Both teams have excellent defenses with strong fronts and secondaries.  Which OL will give their QB the chance to make plays?

 

On paper the Bills' OL is much better than the Jests' OL.  I think that will be the difference maker...Allen will get enough time to make plays, while Rodgers will be constantly harrassed.

 

The Bills now have the players to run legitimate 12 personnel sets.  They haven't had that before, and it puts pressure on the Jests' D.

 

I don't think this will be a one-score game.  Bills by 10.

 

Are you sure you can come up with a half dozen reasons why Cards can beat the Bills?

[billsbackto81]

8 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

Tall order for the opener no doubt. National TV in NY on 9.11 with a new HOF QB with all that hype in front of that crazy crowd 😳 

 

I thought last year was a tough one also. That turned out OK 👍 

[Warriorspikes51]

Allen has yet to look good for an entire game against the Jets....or even a half.

I really hope him and Dorsey are determined to take what the Jets give underneath. 

The quick dropsbacks and quick completions similar to the Rams game would be welcomed.  

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

I would really, really love for this game to be the equivalent of when we played the Jets week 1 with Mario Williams and we were thinking how great our defense would be and that we were going to make a run at the playoffs....and got immediately smacked down.  I am not confident that it WILL happen, but it is certainly a possibility and the ensuing meltdown would be awesome.

 

To McD's credit his teams here have always played well in week one (4-2 overall) with the 2 exceptions being Allen's rookie year when Peterman started against the Ravens and 2021 when this team got beat down by the Jets after all the offseason hype coming off an AFCCG appearance.

 

So a good scenario for the Bills is roles are reversed and play the role of the Steelers a few years ago.

[eball]

38 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Hope you’re right. That’s a lot that has to change and go right for things to go our way this time around. 

 

My rationale has logic and reason behind it.  It’s not some pipe dream.  People need to wake up and understand that other teams fear playing the Bills more than we fear playing them.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Really depends on how Becton plays out at tackle/if he can stay healthy… but McGovern is a good Center and AVT is as well inside… but let’s not forget this defensive line got clowned by the back ups of one of the worst offensive lines in football last season to end their season… and I favor the Jets offensive line vs our defensive line compared to our offensive line vs the Jets defensive line…. But Josh’s mobility might make it a wash. 

This.

burrow gets the ball out quick to elite,physical receivers that get open fast and can beat you deep so you have to respect that as well.  we were down Daquan jones also which imploded the run defense so the bengals really were never in a position where pass rush could’ve effected them too much.  
 

I agree with a lot of what you said but I don’t think there’s much use in extrapolating the bengals results into the jets game especially when we added a pretty good pass rusher in Leonard Floyd.  
 

the jets oline could really be anywhere between good and bad depending on how the tackles hold up.  Brown is getting up there in age and he’s coming off a season ending surgery and becton is pretty much always injured.  Jets oline definitely has a higher ceiling if they get a return to form from brown and becton holds up, but they’ve got a lower floor as well if those guys struggle.  Not sure if a tricep surgery can have any negative lasting effects on an OL but that’s something to keep an eye on with Vera-tucker too 

 

I’d be pretty surprised if the jets win this game honestly, I’m sure that will change in the second matchup but right now they’ve just got so many moving parts with guys returning from injury that haven’t seen game action in awhile and a new qb/OC and so on 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

I think the short passing game is going to be key for the Bills on offense.  They won't be able to protect Josh for a lot of downfield shots.

I forsee a lot of 2TE sets and Kincaid throws.

 

Dare we dream of an effective screen game? 

[BigAl2526]

26 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I forsee a lot of 2TE sets and Kincaid throws.

 

Dare we dream of an effective screen game? 

Sure would be nice.

[LetzGoBuffalo]

I see Jet's D giving us more issues than our D giving them issues. Will be a close one and I see it coming down to the wire. Comes down to which offense can step up and make the plays needed. Excellent, on par way to start another Bills season

[Toledo Bill]

5 hours ago, eball said:

For every NFL matchup you can sit down and come up with a half dozen reasons why one or the other team will win, but it typically comes down to who is more talented and who makes fewer mistakes.

 

When I look at this matchup it comes down to the following:  whose OL will do a better job?  Both teams have excellent defenses with strong fronts and secondaries.  Which OL will give their QB the chance to make plays?

 

On paper the Bills' OL is much better than the Jests' OL.  I think that will be the difference maker...Allen will get enough time to make plays, while Rodgers will be constantly harrassed.

 

The Bills now have the players to run legitimate 12 personnel sets.  They haven't had that before, and it puts pressure on the Jests' D.

 

I don't think this will be a one-score game.  Bills by 10.

 

Good points. I do question the strength of the Bills defensive front. I don’t think I would call it “strong”. Let’s see a pass rush and see if they can stop the run.

As  much as I’d like to see it, I have doubts.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

12 minutes ago, LetzGoBuffalo said:

I see Jet's D giving us more issues than our D giving them issues.

Based on what 

[LetzGoBuffalo]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Based on what 

hunch. my opinion. Weaker at MLB and D-line still missing Von. Just how I see it, that's all. 

[Rockinon]

I think the TEs are going to go off in this game.  12 personnel is going to be a problem for the Jets. Quick hitting timing routes and not knowing who stays in to block and who runs a route. Is it going to be Knox or Kincaid? There may be some screens to TEs or RBs. There may be a couple of dump offs to the slot. Then watch that safety start creeping closer and closer. That's when one of the outside WRs will run a go route deep and the TEs will stay in to block.  The Jets may have a fine defense, but there are just too many weapons to cover.

 

I think Josh finally learns to take what the defense gives him and works his pieces into the game with short passes and timing. The Jets will be stunned by this, make adjustments to the defense then the deep ball will open up. You don't try to beat the Jets in a trench war. Use your speed, use your head.  The beauty of giving the TEs a bigger workload, is that they can also dish out some punishment by simply being bigger than the secondary players that have to tackle them.

 

I'm looking forward to the game. Maybe I'm way off base, but I  don't think the 5000 pass yard per year Josh Allen is going to stand for another depressing stat line against this team.

[LABILLBACKER]

12 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Was just going to start a week 1 thread. Also regarding the line - Buf is the 2nd most bet team at around 75% of the $ on them only behind the Jags.

 

But i think the biggest key on D will be to double Wilson all day and I'd leave Tre on Lazzard. Also have to dominate the l.o.s.. Will be the 1st game Jets ol have played together

 

Don't know what to expect on O but envision alot of motion and formations we haven't seen in the Allen era 

I agree,  double Wilson all game. And be prepared to activate the run stop if we play nickel all night.  Hall & Cook will be used.

[Aussie Joe]

13 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Glad football is back, but I do not like this matchup…

It’s Rodgers first game so I would suggest it’s the best time to be getting them before he is up to speed…

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Allen has yet to look good for an entire game against the Jets....or even a half.

I really hope him and Dorsey are determined to take what the Jets give underneath. 

The quick dropsbacks and quick completions similar to the Rams game would be welcomed.  

So true. The only chance of winning this opener is to swallow our pride and ease back on the deep hero ball. We better have a whole slew of new short hitting routes to go with screens & dumpoffs.

[newcam2012]

50 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So true. The only chance of winning this opener is to swallow our pride and ease back on the deep hero ball. We better have a whole slew of new short hitting routes to go with screens & dumpoffs.

I think the Jets have the best or one of the best secondaries in the NFL.