Short Passing on Trial Early

[Mikie2times]

In two games last year, the Jets allowed a combined 352 yards passing. They Blitzed Josh just 9 times in two games. Individually, each match up ranked in the top 4 least blitzed games Allen saw last year.

 

Allen tried to throw into this look the first game. His air yards per attempt ranking 4th highest for the year in that match up. It wasn't a good result and played right into what the Jets wanted. In the 2nd game, Josh reined it in more averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt which ended up being a full 4 yards less than the first game. In both games the results of those completed passes were in the bottom 5 games as far as length of completion. First game going for 6.4 yards per completion and the second going for a season low 4.6 yards per completion.  

 

The Jets, as much as anybody, do not think Josh is willing to take underneath throws. They won't blitz, they will flood the zone, they will beg Josh to beat them downfield. They play the same style of defense the Steelers used against us in the 2021 opener and that teams started playing more in the 2nd half of last year as Josh saw the Blitz nearly stop completely. When Blitzed 6 times or less last year, Josh passed for 147, 172, 197, 205, 223, and 254. All 6 games happened week 9 or later. Teams do not think Allen is able to take what the defense gives him. They want him to drive the length of the field in boring fashion. On our side we really need to show the NFL early that we will feast underneath if you give it to us. IF we can do that it will open it up deep later on. 

 

A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Mikie2times

[NewEra]

Very insightful.  Thanks for posting this

[ClemsonBills]

This is where the 12 personnel helps us. Want to put 6 in coverage? Fine, let’s run the ball. 12 personnel keeps defenses more honest. Not to mention you still have receiving threats with Knox and Kincaid. 

[Big Blitz]

A running game with a running back that you’re willing to feed fixes this quicker then anything.  
 

[YattaOkasan]

Good analysis but we also became very deep heavy after the injury against the jets. So it makes sense why teams put extra coverage while Saffold got worse by the week. 

[Sestak4ever]

To neutralize the strength of the Jets defense, we will need to use the short, quick passing game, similar to the way we played against the Rams in the opener last season.

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Very insightful.  Thanks for posting this

 

Thanks. I posted the data below in the offseason and I remembered how slanted the Jets played us from that. Which we have to expect again. I have been extremely critical of our inability to take underneath offense. Which triggers a ton of conversations as to why, all of which I don't care to rehash. Having said this what an opportunity to show a evolution in the offense. Some power run. Methodical. Move the chains. That is the style the Jets will give us. Will we take it?

 

 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

23 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

A pretty game for Josh is a whole lot of check downs. Underneath throws. About 200 or so yards and a solid completion %. Keep the chains moving. Do not let the first game excitement get to you. 

 

Agreed. Folks are going to want 300 yards and 3 TD’s and scoring 28+ points. But this will likely be the toughest defense Allen and the Bills gave all year and they are going to be amped up at home.

 

Getting to 20 - 23 points is probably about all we will get to. Hopefully that’s enough. 

[MJS]

I heard the Jets have the best defense since the 85 Bears, so we better just give up now...

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Thanks. I posted the data below in the offseason and I remembered how slanted the Jets played us from that. Which we have to expect again. I have been extremely critical of our inability to take underneath offense. Which triggers a ton of conversations as to why, all of which I don't care to rehash. Having said this what an opportunity to show a evolution in the offense. Some power run. Methodical. Move the chains. That is the style the Jets will give us. Will we take it?

 

 

 

 

I couldn’t agree more.  I’m hoping to see us utilize Cook and Kincaid in the short game and Josh needs to hit them in stride so they can rac it up.  Kincaid is great all over the field, but he has the ability to pull the defense closer to the line of scrimmage which will open up the downfield stuff.  
 

The weapons are solid.  Imo, Diggs, Kincaid and Cook are all among the best at their positions skill/talent wise.  I think Gabe and Harty are good at what they do.  Harris, Murray, Sherfield, shakir all capable of getting the job done.  

Ken Dorsey, let’s see what you’re made of!!

 

Josh Allen, be patient, take what the defense gives you

Edited September 5, 2023 by NewEra

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, ClemsonBills said:

This is where the 12 personnel helps us. Want to put 6 in coverage? Fine, let’s run the ball. 12 personnel keeps defenses more honest. Not to mention you still have receiving threats with Knox and Kincaid. 

Does 12 personnel help that much when Kincaid isn't really an in-line guy and isn't really known for his blocking ability?

[gobills404]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Does 12 personnel help that much when Kincaid isn't really an in-line guy and isn't really known for his blocking ability?

That’s an easy and resounding YES. Having a 245lb TE out there instead of a sub-200lb slot WR is always gonna be an advantage when it comes to blocking. Simple as.

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

That’s an easy and resounding YES. Having a 245lb TE out there instead of a sub-200lb slot WR is always gonna be an advantage when it comes to blocking. Simple as.

Eh, if I was the Jets, I'd put a nickel DB on Kincaid and take my chances.

[HappyDays]

Short quick passing sounds nice in theory. It's hard to execute consistently though when your WR2 can't run those sorts of quick timing routes effectively. Davis took nearly 17% of our passing targets last year... That's a big volume share that has to be redistributed elsewhere if we're suddenly going to become a 2 seconds from snap to throw offense. Also a methodical 15 play drive offense like that needs to avoid as many drops as possible. Last year was not exactly a banner year for us in that department. So again it sounds nice in theory, the personnel we had last year just didn't really mesh with it.

 

I know exactly what the Jets defense is going to do - put Sauce 1v1 on Davis and double Diggs. If the offense can run through Kincaid and Knox from day one then we can do more of what you propose here to counter that. 12 personnel where we run the ball consistently and throw the ball to Cook and our TEs enough that the Jets become sick of it and change their coverage scheme.

 

So I'm hopeful Kincaid's addition and Cook's promotion will give us more answers to the problems you describe in your post. I'm just not willing to simplify the issue to "Allen was unwilling to take short throws." There were larger fundamental problems in our personnel last year, not to mention Allen's UCL injury, that made that sort of offense difficult to run with any kind of consistency.

[HerdMentality]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

 

Josh Allen, be patient, take what the defense gives you

No. Only pass to Diggs, otherwise he’ll quit.

[Dr.Sack]

Jets base D vs Bills 12 personnel decides the game.

[Doc Brown]

Jets are expecting that so maybe push the ball downfield more than they're expecting.  Here's what they definitely should do. 

 

If they give you light boxes prove you can run the ball.  

Motion Diggs all around the field to maybe confuse the defense enough for him to get some easy catches.

Attack Quincy Williams with Knox and Kincaid as he struggles against covering tight ends.

Don't be afraid to challenge Amos with some deep shots as he's a liability in coverage.

 

 

[CSBill]

Excellent analysis, @Mikie2times. Thank you.

 

I think, in general, you are correct. But do not abandon the deep looks; keep them honest. That is where Davis is at his best. But, with Kincaid and Knox, Diggs, Cook, Sherfield, and Harty, you have the people who can eat you alive in the short game--take it if they give it.

[JerseyBills]

i 🙏 we see easy yards. 6 yard check down to Cook. 8 yard dump off to Knox. open up the big plays. 

[HOUSE]

Interesting...

[Coldfronts]

Don't forget the changes on the Bills side of the defense.  I think you're going to see a much more aggressive defense with DB's playing closer to the line. Just hope they can keep the older guys on D healthy and walk out of the game with any major injuries 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Coldfronts

[ProcessTruster]

If I want a bunch of checkdowns, I can go watch any of 29 other NFL QBs.   After 20 years of solid suck , I come for the Josh Allen show.   

 

I want to see something I can't see anywhere else.  That is what Josh brings.   Just my opinion.  

[Buffalo Boy]

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

A running game with a running back that you’re willing to feed fixes this quicker than Ed anything.  
 

   Add in quick hitters and dump offs to Cooke and Kincaid and Hardy as an extension of the running game. 
  I’m DYING to see Cooke underneath in space! I’m craving a huge jump in YAC this year.

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

Does 12 personnel help that much when Kincaid isn't really an in-line guy and isn't really known for his blocking ability?

It does when he’s blocking a slot corner.  He’s the best blocking slot WR we’ve had in quite awhile.  He might not sustain blocks very well but he’s more than capable of putting his hat on a hat long enough to spring the back

 

and when they put a LB on him, audible, throw him the ball.  Remember……. He’s Smoooooooooooooth

[SoonerBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

If I want a bunch of checkdowns, I can go watch any of 29 other NFL QBs.   After 20 years of solid suck , I come for the Josh Allen show.   

 

I want to see something I can't see anywhere else.  That is what Josh brings.   Just my opinion.  

I don't care about any show but the one covering the Bills superbowl parade.  If Josh never runs, and only has 3000 yards passing and 25 TD's but the Bills win the superbowl...I'm happy.

[atomicpwrd]

8 hours ago, Sestak4ever said:

To neutralize the strength of the Jets defense, we will need to use the short, quick passing game, similar to the way we played against the Rams in the opener last season.

I was so stoked after that Rams game...it looked like Dorsey knew what he was doing.  Then it went to hell in a handbag the rest of the year.

[TheWei44]

22 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

If I want a bunch of checkdowns, I can go watch any of 29 other NFL QBs.   After 20 years of solid suck , I come for the Josh Allen show.   

 

I want to see something I can't see anywhere else.  That is what Josh brings.   Just my opinion.  

It's all about a balanced attack but also not being too predictable - Mix it up, keep em off balance, and definitely take your shots.  I expect the Jets to blitz a little more than expected.

[gobills404]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

Eh, if I was the Jets, I'd put a nickel DB on Kincaid and take my chances.

Kincaid is 6 inches taller and 60lb heavier than their nickel Michael Carter. So yeah they’d definitely be taking their chances with that matchup.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

Kincaid is 6 inches taller and 60lb heavier than their nickel Michael Carter. So yeah they’d definitely be taking their chances with that matchup.

Tommy Sweeney was 6’5” and 251 and somehow we didn’t dominate running the ball with him.

[North Buffalo]

Itll all be about Dorsey and Josh reading the defense on the fly... the more the Bills can adjust and be disciplined... Jets D-line is very good and they do have active linebackers but not sure any of them can keep up with Knox and Kincaid

[BRH]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Tommy Sweeney was 6’5” and 251 and somehow we didn’t dominate running the ball with him.

 

Pretty sure there wasn't a nickel DB on him.

[Buffalo Boy]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

Does 12 personnel help that much when Kincaid isn't really an in-line guy and isn't really known for his blocking ability?

  It offers a big target that can shield out defenders with his body and well above average hands. Hit him quick and it’s an extension of the run game.

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

Eh, if I was the Jets, I'd put a nickel DB on Kincaid and take my chances.

We could eat that up all day on his way to Rookie of the year.

[hondo in seattle]

I don't have any stats to support my case and maybe I'm wrong but...

 

Wasn't part of the problem our OL?   Opponents were motivated not to blitz by two realizations, (1) Josh was good against the blitz, and (2) they didn't need to blitz to get Josh off his base because our OL sucked.

 

But I do think it's true that Dorsey and especially Josh didn't possess the take-what-they-give mindset.  It was a kind of gridiron hubris: we know who we are.  We know what we're good at.  We're going to impose our will on you.  

 

 

[T master]

10 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

A running game with a running back that you’re willing to feed fixes this quicker then anything.  
 

 

I agree i think Beane & Co. saw the same thing which is why they upgraded the run game for teams such as the Jets & others that play the Bills the way they do . Experts say the running game isn't what it use to be but it's a very important part of winning in this league you need to be more than 1 dimensional .

 

Given what the Bills have done not only on the O line but in the RB room to give the offense in general more weapons that the Bills will be much harder to handle when Dorsey pulls back the curtain & flexes a bit i think we will all be pleasantly surprised .

 

That being said the Bills D had better show up against the Jets because they got some horses that they will be tying the wagon to on their offense & defense too . It's gonna be a fight for sure !! 

 

GO BILLS !!!  

[RoyBatty is alive]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

Eh, if I was the Jets, I'd put a nickel DB on Kincaid and take my chances.

That might work with Kincaid being a rookie but give him some experience, he will eat up a nickel DB all day, just like Kelce in KC.

[Mango]

The OL still feels like a weak spot. Blitz, don't blitz. It still feels like a quick passing game will help our OL whatever the Jets do. 

 

I want a better power running game. I am just unsure if we have the hogs on the OL to do it. Here is to hoping though!

[gobills404]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Tommy Sweeney was 6’5” and 251 and somehow we didn’t dominate running the ball with him.

There you go trying to move the goalposts. I never said anything about the run game being dominant with Kincaid out there. Literally all I said was that having him out there instead of a slot WR will help the run game. End of story. Try to stay on topic.

[TheBrownBear]

This should be in the message board textbook as an example of a high quality thread.  Thanks, Mikie2times.

[LarryMadman]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

A running game with a running back that you’re willing to feed fixes this quicker then anything.  
 

Yup, as much as I liked Singletary, I think Cook is a HUGE upgrade at RB. Those 3 or 4 yard Singletary runs will turn into 9 or 10 yards runs for Cook and it will make the Jets change it up which will only help Josh. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, gobills404 said:

Kincaid is 6 inches taller and 60lb heavier than their nickel Michael Carter. So yeah they’d definitely be taking their chances with that matchup.

 

If they keep him on Kincaid the entire game, I would go his way like 15 times.