Beanes drafts rate very highly

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 hours ago, DJB said:

PFF did the rankings or some drunk 45 year old still living in his moms basement. Not quite sure 

is there a difference?

 

[DJB]

18 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

is there a difference?

 

My point exactly lol

[BigDingus]

You could show me all the stats in the world, but I still think his drafting isn't good. 

[AuntieEm]

On 8/30/2023 at 10:31 AM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

How is he #2 in round 3? Love the Knox pick but he has not been that great(only good by Bills TE historical perspective). Moss was terrible.  Singletary just average. Phillips was not good but did get a second contract for the Vikings. Jury is still very much out on Brown. 

Wait until Bernard is out of the league next year and he will drop.

 

 

  Or Bernard could develop nicely to where we all call him that helpful dog. ST BERNARD.  Hey it could happen our team is full of Dawgs!!

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, eball said:

 

You’re kidding, right?  I think most fans in general, of any team, are idiots.  It’s not a Bills thing.

 

 

I'm into the Bills mafia being a Band of Brothers.

 

Though I have to say I stuck by the Bills from John Rouch (7-20), Harvey Johnson (1-13), Jim Ringo (3-20) and so on, up through Rex Ryan.  That's probably not a good testimonial to my own intellect.  

[freddyjj]

On 8/30/2023 at 10:32 AM, Mr. WEO said:

He's no Jerry Jones...

And for that we are eternally grateful 😇 

[eball]

43 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm into the Bills mafia being a Band of Brothers.

 

Though I have to say I stuck by the Bills from John Rouch (7-20), Harvey Johnson (1-13), Jim Ringo (3-20) and so on, up through Rex Ryan.  That's probably not a good testimonial to my own intellect.  

 

Fan is short for fanatic.  None of us are sane.

 

[FilthyBeast]

9 hours ago, Lost said:

Just imagine how we would be evaluating Beane's draft history if they had taken WRONG Josh in 2018.   It would change the perspective of everything.  Beane may not even be GM here in that case, nor McD HC still.   We probably woulda had 2 more top 10 picks in the last few years though.  

 

This is what I've felt for years now ever since they've been exposed so to speak. Beane got stupid lucky with JA17 and rarely do these 'boom/bust' guys pan out, luckily for Bills nation it did and more importantly current regime.

 

And I've seen a lot of posters say this is true for most HC/GM in the league whose success is tied to their starting QB, but remember a couple of former Bills head coaches had just the same, if not more success with marginal starting QB's (i.e. Marrone in Jax with Blake Bortles = 1 AFFCG that they were leading until Brady magic struck in 4th quarter, similar deal with Rex Ryan who took the Jets to back to back AFCCG with Mark Sanchez).

 

Beane and McD still have a chance to defy years of historical data but odds are against them and clock is ticking...

[Dr.Sack]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:32 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

What is the criteria this is based on?

DVR

[Robert Paulson]

hopefully the re-evaluation of round 2 strategy started this year with Torrance.

 

it always seemed like to me he used round 2 as a throw away /home run/ take a chance pick on guys with measurables they could coach up instead of drafting 'football players' that fit our scheme -which he does in the other rounds. 

 

Tremaine was a second pick in that draft and fits the measurables but no football instincts pattern after drafting Josh

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

And for that we are eternally grateful 😇 

 

He can put together an O-line...

[AuntieEm]

13 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

hopefully the re-evaluation of round 2 strategy started this year with Torrance.

 

it always seemed like to me he used round 2 as a throw away /home run/ take a chance pick on guys with measurables they could coach up instead of drafting 'football players' that fit our scheme -which he does in the other rounds. 

 

Tremaine was a second pick in that draft and fits the measurables but no football instincts pattern after drafting Josh

Yea be totally okay if he uses 2nd round picks to draft pore olineman where they are needed guard. Tackle center until we have a top oline. After that he can do whatever he wants.

[Dopey]

On 8/30/2023 at 11:30 AM, FilthyBeast said:

 

The issue still remains though that if you subtract JA17 from the equation, both Beane and McD are no different that every other failed GM/HC that's come through Buffalo since 2000 and that's what a lot of Bills mafia doesn't seem to understand or want to acknowledge.

It’s hard to acknowledge such a dumb premise and post. Subtract Burrow, Herbert, Mahomes and those teams are in the same boat. We can do this with every team’s “hits” in the draft. 

It’s not hard to understand this notion, based on my examples above, but, except for the same group here, Bills fans acknowledge that Beane DID pick Josh. He didn’t just fall to us, as Beane traded up to get him. If you’re going to complain, at least complain about something real. Not this fake 💩the same mob comes up with. Drafting Allen was not luck and shouldn’t be minimized to fit a “false “ narrative. Beane is respected around the league for building a SB contender, by people who know more than we do here. Complain, if you all want. It’s what you all do best. But this “ if he hadn’t drafted Allen” crap is ridiculous. Some of you should be ashamed of yourselves for doing this, but the mob has no shame. Whatever “fits” the narrative. False or not. 

[GoBills808]

42 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

hopefully the re-evaluation of round 2 strategy started this year with Torrance.

 

it always seemed like to me he used round 2 as a throw away /home run/ take a chance pick on guys with measurables they could coach up instead of drafting 'football players' that fit our scheme -which he does in the other rounds. 

 

Tremaine was a second pick in that draft and fits the measurables but no football instincts pattern after drafting Josh

I think the exact opposite tbh

 

Outside Cook who to me was just a complete head scratcher and must have been a value pick, the other second rounders are Epenesa, Basham, Ford, and Torrence...who imo all kind of fit the high floor mold. To me at least it seems like Beane takes his chances in the first round and uses the second as insurance

[Robert Paulson]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I think the exact opposite tbh

 

Outside Cook who to me was just a complete head scratcher and must have been a value pick, the other second rounders are Epenesa, Basham, Ford, and Torrence...who imo all kind of fit the high floor mold. To me at least it seems like Beane takes his chances in the first round and uses the second as insurance

Fair enough but-  Basham was a throwaway when creed Humphrey was sitting right there. He didn't  need to take Basham who was projected later.  He needed to take the 10 year center we needed. Not the backup/safety pick in case groot didn't work out.  He Out thought himself because Mc clappy wNted pash rush

[machine gun kelly]

Some of you may have heard this either today or yesterday morning on WGR, but the Bills have 16 players claimed off waivers meaning they go on another teams active roster.  That’s #1 in the NFL during the McBeane era.

 

Second, we are at the top along with the Bengals returning the most players from 22 to 23.  These are objective data points, not opinions.

 

He was named GM of the year two years ago by his peers on the GM side, and now has been rated by agents as one of the most trustworthy GM’s to work with in the league.

 

For some, nothing is ever good enough and want to only cherry pick whatever agenda they are pushing to support their biases.

[Mikie2times]

On 8/30/2023 at 8:06 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=4409eada7495

 

1) Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status"

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

 

-          Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;

-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

I knew it was around starting games…..

 

 

Not alot of statistically valid methods exist and I’m not counting this as one of them. Plenty of reasons exist why a draft pick could start. The team can be poorly assembled, lacking talent in key areas. They could be more committed to starting draft picks. 
 

It’s pretty obvious ranking Beane 2nd doesn’t exactly pass the sniff test. At the same time ranking him near last as some would have you believe doesn’t jive either. 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I think these stats are heavily skewed by Josh Allen. With some credit going to positional value and roster weaknesses.  

 

In 2019 we used a 3rd round pick on a guy that was a day 1 starter and started for 4 years. Would anyone here say that Devin Singletary was a great pick for those reasons? I think, at best, he met expectations. When you draft an RB that high they are supposed to be a multi year starter. 

 

Another example is Spencer Brown. A 3rd round selection that's been a starter since almost day 1. Was he a good pick because of that ? Or did Beane fail to bring in competition and was forced to start one of the worst RTs in the league ? 

 

Another example is Tyler Bass. We drafted a day 1 multi year starter in the 6th round! Too bad he's a kicker and we could've had almost the same production from a UFA off the street. 

 

Was Wyatt Teller a great draft pick ? Obviously getting an all pro in the 5th round is incredible but we traded him for next to nothing. 

 

All that being said I do think Beane is a good GM. Maybe top 5 but certainly not 2nd best. Getting the Josh Allen pick right counts for a lot

 

[Airseven]

The roster is declining because Beane can’t hit in the early rounds. Everything else is over-analysis.

[JerseyBills]

On 8/30/2023 at 10:34 AM, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Singletary, Phillips and Knox all played a lot.  Most 3rd rounders do not start and are mostly back ups. 

Facts, especially on a loaded roster and that rd 2 grade will bump up with Cook n Ocyrus

Edited September 1, 2023 by JerseyBills

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I knew it was around starting games…..

 

 

Not alot of statistically valid methods exist and I’m not counting this as one of them. Plenty of reasons exist why a draft pick could start. The team can be poorly assembled, lacking talent in key areas. They could be more committed to starting draft picks. 
 

It’s pretty obvious ranking Beane 2nd doesn’t exactly pass the sniff test. At the same time ranking him near last as some would have you believe doesn’t jive either. 

 

 

I think you can determine if a player is quality or not after 5 years right?  This isn't who starts as rookies, who ends up being a regular starter over an 80 period. 

 

"For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

 

 

Here's one over a 10 year period.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL  (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Edited September 1, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[JerseyBills]

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I think you can determine if a player is quality or not after 5 years right?  This isn't who starts as rookies, who ends up being a regular starter after 80 games. 

 

"For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:"

 

 

Here's one over a 10 year period.

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL  (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

That’s a pretty neat summary. In short it says your chances of finding a consistent starter are:

 

Round 1: Two out of three

Round 2: 50:50

Round 3: One out of three

Round 4: One out of four 

Round 5: One out of six

Round 6 and 7: Good luck

[Mikie2times]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don't 

That’s great that he can identify JAGS that never play and let the good one like Hodgins go.  
Maybe he should have his scouts focus more on the early rounds (outside of this year which was his best year) 

[JerseyBills]

27 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

I guess. At the same time we've hadva top 3-5 o and D for 3 years straight now. I expect Groot,Floyd,Oliver, Cook,Kincaid,Ocyrus to turn into difference makers, which would be awesome 

11 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

That’s great that he can identify JAGS that never play and let the good one like Hodgins go.  
Maybe he should have his scouts focus more on the early rounds (outside of this year which was his best year) 

Hodgins was on the PS for months so 31 Gms agreed w Beane, it took a rash of wr injuries for Giants to get him mainly because the familiarity w the offense and i wish him well but think he's a JAG

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, Airseven said:

The roster is declining because Beane can’t hit in the early rounds. Everything else is over-analysis.

 

I think our roster is better this year than last year.

I don't think it's the best roster in the league which is the goal.  

 

But that doesn't necessarily mean we won't win the SB.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

43 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I mean, Beane is great at building above average competition at nearly every position. I think when people are upset at his drafting, it’s not that he can’t find contributors. It’s that we can’t find difference makers. 

we need one of Ed Oliver, or Greg Ruosseau to be a difference maker. Both players are still young enough that they can turn into a top five player at their position.

 

The other thing to take into account is the bills did not have a 2020 1st round pick. That greatly lessened the chance of getting a difference maker out of that draft. But of course we used that pick to trade for a difference maker in diggs.

[finn]

Wonder if this chart factors in the mid-round picks Beane gave up to move up. E.g., for Elam, Kincaid. That fourth for Elam hurts. 

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

48 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

 

Hodgins was on the PS for months so 31 Gms agreed w Beane, it took a rash of wr injuries for Giants to get him mainly because the familiarity w the offense and i wish him well but think he's a JAG

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Shanahan's Horseshoe

[JerseyBills]

7 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

i mean he was a day 3 pick.. Our roster has a bunch of all pros, pro bowlers. Can't be elite at every position.  We're second in win % since 2020. What more could you ask for, we're a legit SB contender man, for the 4th straight year

[Sierra Foothills]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:17 AM, RobbRiddick said:

He said in an interview earlier that he couldn't pass up the chance to play with the best QB in the league

 

I'm having a hard time believing that Buechele said that... really?

 

15 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Damn Patriots got Matt Carroll off waivers.

 

Bears re-signed Peterman and also signed Bill Murray.  

 

Bill Murray's net worth is around $200 million... I can't believe he's padding his wealth by playing NFL football. Seems a bit greedy if you ask me.

 

On 8/30/2023 at 1:41 PM, Virgil said:

This is going to sound terrible, but I'm so afraid of him going off this year since he's due for a new contract.  

 

The guys who find a way to finally put it all together in the last year drives me nuts

 

That's a funny way of looking at the Gabriel Davis situation. I'm thinking you've evolved on this.

 

22 hours ago, PBF81 said:

FWIW, Brandon Beane’s Draft Picks other than Allen Listed as Starters to Open the Season

 

Gabe Davis, 2020, 4th Round

Cyress O’Torrence, 2023, 2nd Round

Spencer Brown, 2021, 3rd Round

Dawson Knox, 2019, 3rd Round

James Cook, 2022, 2nd Round

 

Greg Rousseau, 2021, 1st Round

Ed Oliver, 2019, 1st Round

Terrell Bernard, 2022, 3rd Round

Kaiir Elam, 2022, 1st Round

Taron Johnson, 2018, 4th Round

 

Tyler Bass, 2020, 6th Round

 

 

Listing Terrell Bernard and Kaiir Elam as starters is a bit generous. Inaccurate really.

 

I'd love to see it but it hasn't happened yet.

 

 

 

[Chuck Schick]

47 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

I don’t disagree with that but we certainly could’ve used him last year.  
Which further proves my point that Beane is superior to other GMs at picking the best JAGS 

I thought the whole point of the term “JAG” was because there’s no difference from one guy to the next. Now there’s a “best JAG” category??

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I'm having a hard time believing that Buechele said that... really?

 

Nah not really, I was just trying to annoy Filthyp*nis

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

i mean he was a day 3 pick.. Our roster has a bunch of all pros, pro bowlers. Can't be elite at every position.  We're second in win % since 2020. What more could you ask for, we're a legit SB contender man, for the 4th straight year

 

Peoples expectations are insane for late round picks.  

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Peoples expectations are insane for late round picks.  

Agreed. The numbers that I simplified above probably give an indication of why Billy B stockpiled so many of them during the Patriots run. He understood that if you only have one pick in each of the later rounds you’re not going to get a single consistent starter out of that ENTIRE bunch but once every five years or so. 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Listing Terrell Bernard and Kaiir Elam as starters is a bit generous. Inaccurate really.

 

I'd love to see it but it hasn't happened yet.

 

As I said before, take 'em off then.  Either way, they're not good players, both depth-caliber players, simply because Bernard likely will start, and who in his place, Dodson then, says little that supports our drafts and draft strategy.  Same for CB, where Elam/Benford/Jackson are all in the starting slot there.  They simply haven't announced a starter in that spot.  So benefit of doubt to the team.  

 

With a possible development or two, the list is devoid of any impact players to date, and again, with this Draft pending.  As I said, take 'em off, what's left at that point, and not that they're impressive.  

 

That's the way to look at our draft, not by counting how many depth players make/made the team as draftees, like some do, which is ridiculous.  

 

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by PBF81