Ed Oliver big extension

[QCity]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

All of this makes sense. I just do not get the hate for the dude on these boards. 

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

[Bill from NYC]

14 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

5 or those 6 positions are upgrading depth. It's my strongly held belief that depth has not been the thing preventing us from winning a Super Bowl. It's the lack of top end talent. We didn't improve at any of those spots. We have a middling journeyman and a rookie to try to solve our guard weakness. They may succeed at it, but again, guard play isn't why we haven't won a ring. 
 

I agree that guard play is not "the reason" but it certainly has factored into the equation. We have a great QB who far too often had to run for his life, and took too many hits. This not only hurt us in terms of getting a ring, Josh getting punished as such is a huge long term detriment to the franchise. 

 

It is an offensive league. We all know this. Good guard play is essential for the Bills. I do also agree that a rookie and a journeyman are no real guarantee of improvement, but we had to start somewhere. The amount of resources that McDermott devotes to the defensive side is staggering. I hope that next season he will do the same with offensive linemen and wide receivers. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It's not hatred. Where the hell do you get hatred from?

Intentionally misrepresenting opponents’ positions is called the Straw Man Fallacy. That and the Appeal to Authority Fallacy are super popular here. In this particular instance it is difficult to justify the size of extension Oliver got. It’s an obvious overpay even if it’s no worse than the Star contract. At least Oliver is a good player. There just aren’t a lot of sexy arguments for either side though. But if someone wants to pretend that some Bills fans hate Oliver, then that’s spicy. And it’s easy for someone to pretend to take the high ground. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by BarleyNY

[SoCal Deek]

One thing I know for sure is that Beane knows one heck of a lot more about where the Bills are in relation to the Cap both now and in the years to come than anyone on this Message Board. It’s just one of the reasons why I stay away from that topic. It’s way too complicated and we really have no idea what other chess moves are in the offing. So…I’m guessing there’s more to the Oliver extension than most of us think or know. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Breakdown 

 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Breakdown 

 

 

 

Good deal, the thought was it would free between 5-7 mil in space for this year 

[nedboy7]

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

[Maine-iac]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Here are the extensions:

 

Allen, Dawkins, Milano and Tre White weren't projections when extended.........they were paid for what they were at the time and had been for some time prior.     More of the same was plenty to justify those deals.   The success of the Diggs extension is TBD at this point........he'd still be under his old deal even this season still......as he was under contract for two more seasons before Beane extended him at $26M per for 2024-2027.  

 

Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano and Quinton Spain were all released less than a calendar year after their extensions........Spain didn't even make it half way thru his first season of that extension.  Ryan Bates looks like he might have lost his starting job already.    Adding 2 years $20M to to Morse to extend him after already having made him the highest paid C in the NFL isn't a particular cap success story but compared to the other OL extensions it obviously could have gone much worse.

 

The Dawson Knox extension is TBD.   He got top 5 TE money at the time in anticipation of getting better.........but then was basically the same player he had been in 2021.......which is to say more like top 15-20 TE.   He's the 7th highest paid TE in the NFL this coming season.   Hopefully things go better for him this season on and off the field and his pay and his performance start getting closer to each other in 2023.

 

The Ed Oliver extension is different from every other extension Beane has done.

 

Where Knox was similarly paid for anticipated improvement.........DK was also coming off of a season where he was on the field for over 900 offensive snaps.    

 

Oliver not only doesn't play the snaps of other top DT's he also is being paid for anticipated improvement.

 

So while I don't disagree that Beane has had a considerably better track record with own-player extensions than he has had in free agency(where he's had putrid results)........I think they've gotten past the point where the players that are coming up for extension are relative slam dunks in terms of past performance and contract asking price like the Allen/Dawkins/Milano/White group.  

 

 

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Maine-iac

[BuffaloRebound]

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

[TBBills Fan]

46 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That $10.7m cap hit this year was a bit of an albatross for Beane.  The extension allows him to finagle Oliver’s cap numbers going forward.  We are lucky to have owners willing to spend the money to give Beane the flexibility to build a championship roster.  

 

 

I certainly don't miss the old "cash to the cap" strategy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'm still in shock by this. I'd like to know how they measure "pressure"  did Oliver barely break the plain of the pressure area on a lot of those? 

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence. 

[Royale with Cheese]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If you watch the film it is entirely consistent with what the data shows. Like I have said repeatedly in this thread... his underlying analytics are strong. There is good reason to believe that the bare production numbers do not fully reflect Ed's game. For the new contract to be good value over the longer term that has to change, no question, but people thinking Beane has lost his mind on this deal have to recognise that the view they have taken is backed up by a reasonable body of evidence. 

 

I know I've came to you multiple times on Ed because I've been a little disappointed in his production.

 

But between you and @MrEpsYtown, I trust your analysis and now am pro-Ed on this contract.  I watched the Cover 1 breakdown and I'm starting to see what you guys are seeing in his game.  I still want more splash plays but I'm not uncomfortable with him anymore.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

According to NFL's NextGen Stats, Oliver has generated an 11.6% pressure rate over the last three seasons, which is the fourth-highest among defensive tackles during that time frame among players with a minimum of 600 pass rushes. The three players ahead of him on that list -- San Francisco's Javon Hargrave, Washington's Jonathan Allen and the Los Angeles Rams' Aaron Donald -- all make at least $18 million per season. That shows the value teams place on interior pass rush.

It’s amazing how well he does analytically. They need to extend Jones.
 

 

[The Wiz]

 

 

[HappyDays]

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like it. That is a very good contract. Gives the team a lot of flexibility while locking a guy who still has a very high ceiling in at a very good price.

The devil is ALWAYS in the details. 

Again and again, people form kneejerk reactions to the first contract terms announced, and those ALWAYS come from the agent and are phrased in the way that seems most impressive for their client.

Now that we see the details of this particular contract, it makes a great deal more sense for the Bills than it may first have appeared. Well structured, and not particularly limiting -- certainly not crippling -- in any future years, should they decide to move on.

Well done, Beane, Overdorf, and crew.

[John from Riverside]

Here’s to ed making this contract look like a bargain

[HappyDays]

A lot of consternation came from the initial report that we gave him $45 million guaranteed. But it appears that is not actually true. Unless I'm missing something this is a very team friendly deal and the initial report was a straight up lie.

[BillsVet]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

That's what we are talking about here with Oliver.    He has had a few great games but has yet to either play the snaps of.....or produce numbers that resemble a top DT.    I do agree that the floor needs to become AT LEAST 70% of the snaps......you can't be running in liabilities like Jordan Phillips or Brandin Bryant for 45% of the damn snaps and paying Ed $17M.   But that 70% is like 200 more snaps than he played just last season(presuming he plays 17).   It's a lot easier said than done.........and with those snaps he needs to add more than 1-2 sacks of production.

 

He simply has to become a MUCH better player.    That's generally not how these contracts are earned.

 

I have never quite understood the thought process on how Oliver is used.     

 

It would make sense to me if he's hurt why the snap count is what it is despite being a top-10 pick.  I'm not buying that it's completely driven by that.  I suspect it's also in part a result of McD's DL rotational mindset.  

 

And if that's the case, spending top picks on DT's who will be used this way seems mis-aligned.  I'd expect the better DL to be on the field if they're relatively healthy, which down the stretch is harder.  37 snaps per game and 54-60% over a season on contract terms he signed for seems like a mis-use of resources.   

[nucci]

so it could be a 1 year deal.

[HappyDays]

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So it's like two one year deals

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Basically was just a cap clearing deal that doesn’t impact the future too much.

 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

A lot of consternation came from the initial report that we gave him $45 million guaranteed. But it appears that is not actually true. Unless I'm missing something this is a very team friendly deal and the initial report was a straight up lie.

 

NFL contracts infuriate me. "Fully" guarantee is redundant. If the other "guarantees" are not 100% for sure going to happen then they aren't guarantees are they?

 

To get back on topic for Oliver, based on initial reports I thought this was a rather bad contract with 45 mil guaranteed. With "fully" guaranteed money of only 24 mil this is actually a good deal. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Basically was just a cap clearing deal that doesn’t impact the future too much.

 

 

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

[BarleyNY]

36 minutes ago, nucci said:

so it could be a 1 year deal.

 

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So it's like two one year deals

 

It’s effectively a 3 year, $48.4M deal with two optional years after that. The outs after this year and next would be expensive, but the offsets would help if we had to get out early. It’s an overpay, but I very much like the structure. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

I’m still waiting for the Jones extension which would also clear about $5 million in cap.

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So it's like two one year deals

 

That $20.75m cap hit in 2025 is the big decision IMO. If he isn't living up to his contract they can cut him for $8.85m in dead cap that year. Not a bad risk/reward.

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

I know that's important and you need to fill a roster

 

I like this a little better now but still have concerns...not about Oliver per se because he's a good player, more the philosophy that these types of deals for his caliber of player represents

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

 

 

Like I said.......he's averaged just a bit under 56% and played 60% of the snaps IN THE GAMES HE DIDN'T MISS ENTIRELY last season(he missed 3 entirely).   He's not being unfairly judged because of injury he actually only played around 50% of the teams total defensive snaps last year.

 

And 70% of snaps played isn't any kind of standard.......it's something someone in this thread made up as a figure they think is a gold standard.

 

The standard of the best DT's 80%+ snaps OR outrageous production on less than 80% of snaps.

 

 The 3 DT's picked right after Ed Oliver all played OVER 80% of the snaps last season and had a whopping 300-400+ more snaps than Ed's feeble 527.  

 

Quinnen Williams is used more like Ed Oliver and only played 690 snaps last year but he put up 12 sacks and 28 QB hits to Ed's meager 2.5 sacks and 14 QB hits.    

 

Ed's something of a taint.    He aint an every down, high production DT like his draft classmates Wilkins, Lawrence or Simmons........but his actual production is also pathetic compared to guys like Quinnen or Hargrave who play less than 80% but do it in a dominant fashion.

 

But Ed is being paid second only to Aaron Donald on a per snap basis based on his career average of 570 snaps per season(which forgives his particularly low snap counts last season to an extent).

 

 Oliver gets a few more hits on the QB than Poona Ford but his sack and tackle production is very much like $2M Poona Ford in recent years.    Poona also plays about mid 50% of his teams snaps but he also plays a lot more 1T or NT position where he gets less chances to shoot gaps and has more run responsibility than Ed Oliver typically does.    

 

This Oliver contract is a MASSIVE overpay based on what Oliver has shown so far.    That's the bottom line.   Maybe he is an instance where a player gets paid by a team anticipating a huge improvement in his play and he actually does that.   He's talented so maybe.   But based on what he's done it's a terrible deal.

[freddyjj]

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2010, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

Edited June 6, 2023 by freddyjj

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2011, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

Yes but how many snaps did he play?  

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2011, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

 

If he does, you will be the main reason why.

[Warcodered]

 

[Shaw66]

Oliver's press conference is interesting.  He isn't the best speaker, but he's genuine.   You can tell how confident he is.  Solid guy. 

 

Best part is the end.   Someone asked him about whether he's accomplished all he hoped, and he said "we have everything, but we don't have the hardware.  We have the oline, we have the dline, we have the coach, we have the owner."   HE said he wants to win a lot of Super Bowls.  It was cool.  

 

This team is all in.  Love it. 

[Green Lightning]

23 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

guess you still miss the part that he was double teamed all game. He was basically playing the role of a 1 tech. that is what they do. take on double teams.

Guess you missed the regular season where he impacted not much. Hey if he gets a burst and penetrates he can be successful.  If not, he gets ragdolled by the OL. There's been plenty of games he dissappears.

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes but how many snaps did he play?  

2795 for Kyle.  2284 for Ed.   Really very similar production.