Ed Oliver big extension

[Special K]

51 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

This year I’m the least excited I’ve been about the Bills since the EJ Manuel days…

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, Simon said:

This is an excellent post and I would only add to it that the fact that's he's well-respected by all his brothers and coaches is a decisive factor as well.

 

At the end of the day this signing does not improve the team.  It merely adds to the cost of the status quo insofar as Oliver goes.  

 

All offseason people were complaining that it DL and DTs aren't good enough.  So what's changed?  Nothing but the price.

 

Thats's a fact.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 hours ago, bearstobills said:

Clueless take.  It really is.  Who has he overrated and signed?  I'll wait. 

 

2017 He signed Milano, Tredavious, and Dawkins to extensions (and those were guys he did not draft)

2018 He signed Josh Allen, Taron Johnson, and Siran Neal to extensions

2019 Ed Oliver signed

 

So who has he overrated and paid??  Ed doesn't count because you're suggesting a pattern. I'm still waiting. 

I'm guessing he was thinking of Daryl Williams, Star, and maybe Quinton Spain.   All of these were guys that got big money contracts from Beane and then flamed out, but of course none of them were drafted by Beane.  

[John from Riverside]

57 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

This year I’m the least excited I’ve been about the Bills since the EJ Manuel days…

🤓

[ndirish1978]

27 pages of vitriol before the contract details are out? Feels like we've learned nothing. 

[muppy]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Yeah, I don’t know that yet. Oliver was injured quite a bit this last year.

One thing I have learned from this thread is the variety and types plural of injuries he has had nagging. What this tells me is his physical health is a point of contention moving forward . I mean it indeed is with all pro athletes vitally important that they be available to play in games. And effectiveness can be hampered when not playing 100%. 

 

I am sure he will be receiving the best training and preparation possible to be a Force for our DL.  WE all have to hope he can remain healthy.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, muppy said:

One thing I have learned from this thread is the variety and types plural of injuries he has had nagging. What this tells me is his physical health is a point of contention moving forward . I mean it indeed is with all pro athletes vitally important that they be available to play in games. And effectiveness can be hampered when not playing 100%. 

 

I am sure he will be receiving the best training and preparation possible to be a Force for our DL.  WE all have to hope he can remain healthy.

I think it just shows that we fans are just fans and don’t know everything about the team
 

To me, everything was pointing to Oliver on his way out. He hadn’t given the production to warrant his draft pick, and he had been injured this last two years.

 

But the bills didn’t feel that way

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I don't see it.  Looks like an overspend just like Star.  Could have easily been replaced with a day 2 draft pick next year.  

Hated the pick.  He's done nothing to change my mind, and now I hate the extension.

All we can do now is hope he stays healthy and puts up 8-10 sacks this year with McD calling the plays.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

The only time he's invisible is when he's hurt, which is my only real concern about this  extension.

 

Yeah but Ed Oliver is hurt A LOT.

 

A LOT A LOT.

 

This despite being a heavily rotated DT who is playing just 570 snaps per year compared to say......Jeffery Simmons......who is being asked to play 870 snaps per year.

 

Simmons projects to earn about $27,000 per snap on his 4 year $94M deal.........Ed Oliver at $17M projects to $30,000 per snap.

 

And of course when Simmons is playing hurt he's still very impactful because he's a full sized DT while Ed is greatly diminished due to his lack of size/length.

 

So on paper it's a bad deal.   They still gotta' fill an extra 150-300 snaps that teams with other highly paid DT's do not expect to have to.  

 

But hopefully Ed learns how to take care of himself better and play smarter.    

[pigpen65]

Excellent news. Edmunds gone and Oliver and Poyer retained. Thank God Beane is the type to watch the games and not just look at stats like the fantasy football geeks

[wppete]

Great extension. I think it will end up being a deal for a premium position similar to Tre Whites contract. Still 25 years old and the best is to come for Oliver. 

[PrimeTime101]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This thread has been hilarious and Mike Catalana showing off his Drew Bledsoe "Donahoe Clown Suit" road jersey just added to it. 

I agree lol

6 hours ago, Simon said:

Fun fact:

Last year there were only 5 DTs in the NFL that had more Tackles for Loss per game than Ed Oliver.

But please keep telling us how awful he is and that you never see him make any plays.

It's funny because it just shows how little you actually see. 

in 13 games.. well 12.3 cause he went out early in one lol 

 

 

Lots of horrible narratives... "But i am the one that is wrong most times and just this one stuck"

 

its just laughable. But you know what? its good to see a mod in a thread that helps keep the thread clean for the most party. thanks  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it just shows that we fans are just fans and don’t know everything about the team
 

To me, everything was pointing to Oliver on his way out. He hadn’t given the production to warrant his draft pick, and he had been injured this last two years.

 

But the bills didn’t feel that way

We may be fans but we aren't completely uniformed either. Remember this is the same management team that signed a guy that quit at half time and drafted and played the worst QB in NFL history. They are not geniuses.  Oh yeah its the same guys that traded Teller.  They make mistakes all the time.  

We've watched Oliver play for four years.  We knew he was undersized coming out of college and shocking he has battled injuries(pectoral, calf, ankle).  He has a total of 14.5 sacks in 4 years.  I think most on here agreed with picking up the 5th year guarantee. That made sense. I think most were happy to see him play on the last year of his deal hoping he would really ball out.  Now he is an overpaid injury prone undersized DT that we hope can live up to they hype coming out college. 

[bearstobills]

27 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

🤓

What on Earth would make you say that?  Is it the strategic free agent signings?  The high level draft picks? Coming off a 3 loss season?  The return of a Hall of Fame pass rusher? Another year with a top 3 quarterback?

 

I mean, you are using your precious time on Earth on a Bills fan site.  And you took the time to post, so clearly you care about the team.  Just wondering what about this year seems so foreboding that you bring up the EJ years?

2 minutes ago, bearstobills said:

What on Earth would make you say that?  Is it the strategic free agent signings?  The high level draft picks? Coming off a 3 loss season?  The return of a Hall of Fame pass rusher? Another year with a top 3 quarterback?

 

I mean, you are using your precious time on Earth on a Bills fan site.  And you took the time to post, so clearly you care about the team.  Just wondering what about this year seems so foreboding that you bring up the EJ years?

Sorry, I was responding to this guy....

1 hour ago, Bills!Win! said:

This year I’m the least excited I’ve been about the Bills since the EJ Manuel days…

[NoSaint]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah but Ed Oliver is hurt A LOT.

 

A LOT A LOT.

 

This despite being a heavily rotated DT who is playing just 570 snaps per year compared to say......Jeffery Simmons......who is being asked to play 870 snaps per year.

 

Simmons projects to earn about $27,000 per snap on his 4 year $94M deal.........Ed Oliver at $17M projects to $30,000 per snap.

 

And of course when Simmons is playing hurt he's still very impactful because he's a full sized DT while Ed is greatly diminished due to his lack of size/length.

 

So on paper it's a bad deal.   They still gotta' fill an extra 150-300 snaps that teams with other highly paid DT's do not expect to have to.  

 

But hopefully Ed learns how to take care of himself better and play smarter.    

post of the thread. 
 

I hope the he plays up to it, but it’s a pretty hefty pay day for the role he plays, and no promise he suddenly stays healthy. 
 

if I could put out that kind of outlay anywhere I want, it’s not the spot I’d go with. 

[Simon]

33 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah but Ed Oliver is hurt A LOT.

......

But hopefully Ed learns how to take care of himself better and play smarter.    

 

Yes he is.

And what spooks me is that I'm not convinced there exists a viable path where taking care of himself and playing smarter will lead to an appreciable improvement in his day to day health.

On every snap he's going hard against either one or two guys who are bigger and stronger than him, which means he's got to plant and drive that much harder, press and pull that much harder, and extend and expose himself that much more to be effective. If he doesn't do it, he's not effective and if he does, shlt is going to start popping. He might be able to add some more size without losing too much jump and that might help him stay on the field more; but if not, he's probably going to be going through a hell of a lot of tape.

[BullBuchanan]

6 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

It's not.  Not by an stretch.  

 

Go out on the open market and sign another 3T and see what that costs.   The top guys don't get out of their organizations.  You have to draft them so keeping your own is usually the best way to go.  With the salary cap increase in the next few years and probably an out on this contract in 3 years its not the big deal everyone is freaking out about.  

 

 

I already did. Suh cost 6M for the Bucs and produced 6 sacks and 7 TFL compared to Oliver's 2.5/6. We're paying almost 3x the amount for worse production.

[par73]

Very surprised by this. Never liked the pick-- undersized and underperformed in college. Extension may free up cap room, but I would have rather tried to keep Edmunds. And, as others have noted, he is oft-injured. Just very curious, imo.

[BobbyC81]

40 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

post of the thread. 
 

I hope the he plays up to it, but it’s a pretty hefty pay day for the role he plays, and no promise he suddenly stays healthy. 
 

if I could put out that kind of outlay anywhere I want, it’s not the spot I’d go with. 

They could’ve spent an extra $4Mil and kept Edmunds.  Maybe he wanted to leave and/or the coaching staff felt the same way most of us did about him?  Two more Pro Bowls than Oliver.

[BillsFanForever19]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I already did. Suh cost 6M for the Bucs and produced 6 sacks and 7 TFL compared to Oliver's 2.5/6. We're paying almost 3x the amount for worse production.

 

First, it was 9m the year he went for 6/7 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/ndamukong-suh-6511/

 

Secondly, he was 34 years old. Like it or not, age and wear and tear play a massive role in contracts. 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

First, it was 9m the year he went for 6/7 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/ndamukong-suh-6511/

 

Secondly, he was 34 years old. Like it or not, age and wear and tear play a massive role in contracts. 

it was 6.5, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is it's A LOT less money and a lot more production. Oliver has never even lived up to his rookie contract, and then they give him an top level extension. Total clown move from Beane. It's starting to look like they're already writing off this season and planning for 2024 and beyond. We're going to be fielding a team this year that has equal or lesser talent at nearly every position. Unless you thought we were a guard and a 220lb mlb away from a championship, of course.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Another way to look at it.

 

DT signings this year

Simmons 4 years 94 million 

Payne 4 years 90 million 

Lawrence 4 years 87.5 million 

Hargrove 4 years 84 million 

 

 

 

Oliver 4 years 68 million 

 

Wilkens and Williams will be in the $90 million range. He didn’t get close to what the top DTs are getting in this new market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

I was out doing stuff all day, so by the time I got this news and came into this thread, it was already 28 pages long.

 

Let me just say….it has NOT disappointed so far! 🤣

[BillsShredder83]

4 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

They are different type players and complimentary when used correctly.

 Phillps is also a pass rusher as compared to Jones

One of the things folks who just do stats is that they dont see who is dinged or playing injured

It really is a big deal if you want to evaluate a player during the season

Gabe Davis and his ankle come to mind as well, no push to separate or cut

I honestly couldn't tell you what his stat line looked like last year. I know it wasn't anything sexy. Strictly going off the eyeball test.

 

There are plays where he throws the switch and looks like he made up his mind ahead of time, he's getting penetration and nobody is stopping him!!! Even whole games like that. 

 

But I know for dammit sure he doesn't do it consistently. I dunno If he's out of shape, too small, lazy and coasting through whole series, but it's easy to see.

 

As far as the injuries thing, that's fair and lineman are always banged up.... but if you're banged up so hard, so often, that you look that inconsistent, I'm not one to hold my breath and wait for a storm of perfect conditions that he can perform in.

 

Really my BIGGEST problem here. We had a year to dangle a carrot in front of him, and force him to try or get in better shape or focus purely on his craft, whatever it takes to get that payday he was talking about on Twitter.... and now we'll never see that.

 

Hoping he has a great year, but we stood to benefit a lot by keeping that carrot a yard in front of his face.

[BillsShredder83]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They had to sign him or trade him. I feel better about Oliver now than before. You can’t have a guy eating $10 million that you don’t want to sign. They did that with Edmunds last year. Big mistake.

Edmunds balled out last year. The elevated play was the payoff as sometimes certain players are gunna get picked off by weaker teams that will overpay.

 

Would've been perfectly content to see big Ed ball out, help us win a Chip and get the Cleveland and Arizonas of the world pay him $18-$20m andddddd maybe get a comp pick

[34-78-83]

It’s funny how not a single post in this thread references any film reviews of Ed, or reviews of his play by those who review film. Instead it’s just a boatload of self proclaimed experts on DT play mostly who know little too nothing. You don’t need to be a film review expert to find articles from those who are, or a video on YouTube. The best thing about it is it’s really hard to bs it.

 

Read/ watch and learn that Ed is a good DT and at what looks like 11.5 mil over 5 years, is being paid like a good DT. Might the injuries present a risk? Sure. But that’s only 2 people I’ve read… The rest of you who have decided that he sucks are laughable. This move very likely frees up more 2023 cap too, and we shall see what happens there.

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Another way to look at it.

 

DT signings this year

Simmons 4 years 94 million 

Payne 4 years 90 million 

Lawrence 4 years 87.5 million 

Hargrove 4 years 84 million 

 

 

 

Oliver 4 years 68 million 

 

Wilkens and Williams will be in the $90 million range. He didn’t get close to what the top DTs are getting in this new market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So sorta similar to Danny Dimes QB contract..

 

not top of the market but still a few dollars spent

Edited June 4, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Aussie Joe]

8 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

It’s funny how not a single post in this thread references any film reviews of Ed, or reviews of his play by those who review film. Instead it’s just a boatload of self proclaimed experts on DT play mostly who know little too nothing. You don’t need to be a film review expert to find articles from those who are, or a video on YouTube. The best thing about it is it’s really hard to bs it.

 

Read/ watch and learn that Ed is a good DT and at what looks like 11.5 mil over 5 years, is being paid like a good DT. Might the injuries present a risk? Sure. But that’s only 2 people I’ve read… The rest of you who have decided that he sucks are laughable. This move very likely frees up more 2023 cap too, and we shall see what happens there.

sorry… how are you getting $11m over 5 years?  Is the first post wrong?  
 

 

[34-78-83]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

sorry… how are you getting $11m over 5 years?  Is the first post wrong?  
 

 

Joe Buscalia article mentions it as the likely total over 5 years since it’s an extension

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, 34-78-83 said:

Joe Buscalia article mentions it as the likely total over 5 years since it’s an extension

I’ll go with Schefter…

 

Moot point anyway… it’s about the guaranteed money 

[34-78-83]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

I’ll go with Schefter…

 

Moot point anyway… it’s about the guaranteed money 

Just in case you want to see it anyway. He’s likely right…. Shefter is more of a news breaker from the agent than a guy who breaks down how the money gets spread

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, 34-78-83 said:

Just in case you want to see it anyway. He’s likely right…. Shefter is more of a news breaker from the agent than a guy who breaks down how the money gets spread

So this dude you are quoting is saying $15.75m a year???

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

it was 6.5, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is it's A LOT less money and a lot more production. Oliver has never even lived up to his rookie contract, and then they give him an top level extension. Total clown move from Beane. It's starting to look like they're already writing off this season and planning for 2024 and beyond. We're going to be fielding a team this year that has equal or lesser talent at nearly every position. Unless you thought we were a guard and a 220lb mlb away from a championship, of course.

 

Six upgraded position groups imo.  Six that stayed the Same.  One got worse.  This is a really bad post and may be an overreaction to what you deem a bad extension.

 

TE - (Kinkaid > Morris/Sweeney)

IOL - (McGovern, Edwards, Torrence all better than Saffold).  Morse and Bates returning.

WR -  (Harty/Scherfield > McKenzie/Kumerow)

RB - (Harris/Murray > Singletary/D. Johnson).  Even if you think it's a push Stevenson and Murray don't have the fumbling problems Singletary has.

DT - upgraded (Poonah Ford > Tim Settle).  Settle's still on the team but likely just a depth piece now who'll struggle to make the game time roster.

S - upgraded (Taylor Rapp is better than any backup safety we had on the team last year).

 

Stayed the same. - CB, OT, P, K, DE, QB

 

Got worse - LB

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Doc Brown

[34-78-83]

10 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

So this dude you are quoting is saying $15.75m a year???

Sorry yes 15.5 is what I meant to type earlier. I’m up way too late🙂

 

 but yes, 16th highest DT salary which is about where his film commentary seems to have him. Most I’ve seen rate him as an above average DT, and TFL’s for him reflect that too

[GunnerBill]

When Ed was healthy last year he was dominant - particularly that stretch un the middle of the season. He got hurt at the start of the year and again at the end of the year and it limited his impact. But when he is healthy and firing he is one of the Bills best defensive players even if he doesn't have the gaudy numbers to prove it to the boxscore scouts.

1 minute ago, 34-78-83 said:

Sorry yes 15.5 is what I meant to type earlier. I’m up way too late🙂

 

 but yes, 16th highest DT salary which is about where his film commentary seems to have him. Most I’ve seen rate him as an above average DT, and TFL’s for him reflect that too

 

What you are getting is a big discount from the top of the market guys for a guy who talent wise is in that conversation. I get it he doesn't have the pure production numbers to back that up, but he also leads the league the last two years in sacks called back by penalty... I still think the production isn't a fair reflection of the player when he is on. And the last two seasons he has been consistent when healthy. He got hurt twice in 2022 but hopefully that is now behind him.

Edited June 4, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Sorry yes 15.5 is what I meant to type earlier. I’m up way too late🙂

 

 but yes, 16th highest DT salary which is about where his film commentary seems to have him. Most I’ve seen rate him as an above average DT, and TFL’s for him reflect that too

Ok … 15.75m or $17m contracted money is not a huge difference …

 

Like I said earlier…It’s about the guaranteed money which will see him through 3 years most likely… time will tell if they keep him on the books  after that.. 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[TheWeatherMan]

I wonder if this is the contract they offered Edmunds and now Dorian Williams looks the part so BB is comfortable allocating that money towards Eddie O’s extension. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Really my BIGGEST problem here. We had a year to dangle a carrot in front of him, and force him to try or get in better shape or focus purely on his craft, whatever it takes to get that payday he was talking about on Twitter.... and now we'll never see that.

The Bills obviously don't share that concern.  My biggest concern is he's rarely playing at 100% health.  It's no coincidence his healthiest season (2021) was also his best.

4 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

I wonder if this is the contract they offered Edmunds and now Dorian Williams looks the part so BB is comfortable allocating that money towards Eddie O’s extension. 

In OTA's where they can't even hit?  The Bills have likely been looking to re-sign Edmunds as soon as they could this off-season.  We know they were talking to his agent in early March based off Oliver's deleted instagram post.

[ProcessTruster]

14 hours ago, zevo said:

Gotta think he is a major piece in mcd defense 

well, he is now.  we're stuck with lil' stubby for at least 3 more for sure

Edited June 4, 2023 by ProcessTruster

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Edmunds balled out last year. The elevated play was the payoff as sometimes certain players are gunna get picked off by weaker teams that will overpay.

 

Would've been perfectly content to see big Ed ball out, help us win a Chip and get the Cleveland and Arizonas of the world pay him $18-$20m andddddd maybe get a comp pick

You have to make difficult decisions as a GM and this was a difficult decision. They decided to keep him. A 3rd round pick doesn’t help us cap wise right now. They had to sign or trade him for cap purposes. It wasn’t really about his play.