What should the Bills plan be for their 2024 salary cap / roster?

[Adam727]

I don't usually like to start threads but I can't find a good answer to this question, and it's the off-season...  

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills are currently $35 million over the projected salary cap next year.  Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis, Daquan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Poona Ford, Dane Jackson are all free agents along with a number of other less expensive role players.

 

The Bills have already spent about $20mil/year from future years cap space for the next several years in void years / restructures, so even though they can choose to keep pushing some money into future years at some point doing this too much will probably catch up with them and would mean we'd be dealing with some rebuilding year or years  right as Josh is in the middle of his prime as a QB, and Beane has said numerous times he's always trying to balance building for now and building for the future.  

 

I see $8million in relatively easy cuts in Hines/Neal.  The Bills can probably save some money next near by extending Taron Johnson.  After that it starts becoming much more difficult to see where the Bills save money.

 

Has anyone else looked at 2024 yet and what does this roster look like next year?  Who can the Bills afford to bring back and who might be on the chopping block for cap reasons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WhoTom]

Trust the Beane. I expect some restructuring and plenty of the voodoo he performs every year.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

29 minutes ago, Adam727 said:

I don't usually like to start threads but I can't find a good answer to this question, and it's the off-season...  

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills are currently $35 million over the projected salary cap next year.  Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis, Daquan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Poona Ford, Dane Jackson are all free agents along with a number of other less expensive role players.

 

The Bills have already spent about $20mil/year from future years cap space for the next several years in void years / restructures, so even though they can choose to keep pushing some money into future years at some point doing this too much will probably catch up with them and would mean we'd be dealing with some rebuilding year or years  right as Josh is in the middle of his prime as a QB, and Beane has said numerous times he's always trying to balance building for now and building for the future.  

 

I see $8million in relatively easy cuts in Hines/Neal.  The Bills can probably save some money next near by extending Taron Johnson.  After that it starts becoming much more difficult to see where the Bills save money.

 

Has anyone else looked at 2024 yet and what does this roster look like next year?  Who can the Bills afford to bring back and who might be on the chopping block for cap reasons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

They’re in good shape but they have to find their next WR1 soon because Diggs’ cap number will begin to be a burden. Probably have 2 years left with Diggs, if that.

 

I could see an Allen extension soon which would push a lot of cap back. Chiefs are already talking Mahomes extension to make him the highest paid QB.

 

A tough decision next year will be Tre White. Post June cut next year saves $10+ million. With Allen restructuring and cutting White the Bills will be close to positive cap space. There’s plenty of other moves that probably get them around $20 million under. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Ya Digg?]

This is not an issue that’s unique to the Bills. Most teams (and pretty much all of the good teams) are in this situation-and the Bengals will be there once Burrow gets his contract. This is standard operating procedure for these guys. They’re paid a lot of money to figure this stuff out, it doesn’t concern me at all 

[Billl]

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

My guess:

 

[Pbomb]

48 minutes ago, Billl said:

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

Let me guess, “the window will be closed”

[Buffalo_Stampede]

52 minutes ago, Billl said:

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

2025. Possible new LT, WR1, CB1, Edge1. 4/5 of the most important positions on a roster. I feel we have a 2 year window with familiar faces leading us.

 

But with QB1 set it’s so much easier to build.

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Pbomb said:

Let me guess, “the window will be closed”

Not necessarily.  We just saw that a team can win a Super Bowl while doing a serious re-tooling.  Vegas has the Bills winning 10.5 games.  If they sightly outperform that by going 12-5 and going on a postseason run, there's no reason to think they can't keep it going while doing some serious roster churn.  If they underperform at 9-8, then you're absolutely looking at a two year rebuild.  Anybody whose age starts with a 3 would be a candidate to be moved, and guys like Tre, Brown, Oliver, Knox, Davis, Basham, and Epenesa would have to be evaluated as well.  

 

I think Buffalo is a 10 or 11 win team, so neither of those outcomes would shock me.

[Ya Digg?]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

Not necessarily.  We just saw that a team can win a Super Bowl while doing a serious re-tooling.  Vegas has the Bills winning 10.5 games.  If they sightly outperform that by going 12-5 and going on a postseason run, there's no reason to think they can't keep it going while doing some serious roster churn.  If they underperform at 9-8, then you're absolutely looking at a two year rebuild.  Anybody whose age starts with a 3 would be a candidate to be moved, and guys like Tre, Brown, Oliver, Knox, Davis, Basham, and Epenesa would have to be evaluated as well.  

 

I think Buffalo is a 10 or 11 win team, so neither of those outcomes would shock me.

Oh god so that means this place will be a cesspool 6 or 7 times next year and only slightly less miserable the other times 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

Why are you here again?

 

Just to be a pessimistic voice  from another team it seems,,

 

The phrase “ get a life “ comes to mind…

 

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Billl]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Why are you here again?

 

Just to be a pessimistic voice  from another team it seems,,

 

The phrase “ get a life “ comes to mind…

 

 

There's nothing pessimistic about that. Football teams turn over their rosters frequently, and this is the oldest roster in the league. The 2024 version of this team will have 8-10 new starters compared to the 2023 team.  McBeane have chosen to mostly run it back the last two seasons.  They're due for an overhaul outside of Josh, Diggs, and the youngsters who are going to have to take over for guys like Hyde, Poyer, and Morse. 

 

It's very doable when you've got a young superstar at QB.  Look at the "make it out break it" thread.  If most of those guys show out, then they'll be part of the retooling, and the team will keep on rolling.  If not, it's a bigger project.  

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

There's nothing pessimistic about that. Football teams turn over their rosters frequently, and this is the oldest roster in the league. The 2024 version of this team will have 8-10 new starters compared to the 2023 team.  McBeane have chosen to mostly run it back the last two seasons.  They're due for an overhaul outside of Josh, Diggs, and the youngsters who are going to have to take over for guys like Hyde, Poyer, and Morse. 

 

It's very doable when you've got a young superstar at QB.  Look at the "make it out break it" thread.  If most of those guys show out, then they'll be part of the retooling, and the team will keep on rolling.  If not, it's a bigger project.  

Why even raise the prospect of 2023 “going poorly”…?

 

They have just came off a 13-3 season that was disrupted by injury, travel and other issues …there is no reason to think that misfortune will all happen again which most other teams did not have to contend with ..

 

This comment seems typical of the “ pessimism ” I see from you about the Bills particularly since the last playoffs …

 

They are the 3rd or 4th favourite for the Championship in 2023… more than a few think that Beane has improved the team through some astute offseason buys and the only real loss they have had is Edmunds ..

 

Yes… that all guarantees nothing but I think the prospects of them having a poor season seem remote barring a JA injury…

[DCofNC]

Hyde , Poyer, Oliver, Gabe, Morse, White all gone.  Milano extended, Dawkins and Knox will be re-worked or traded.

 

2025 will see Miller and Diggs re-worked or gone. 
 

The draft will have to be fruitful.

[Pete]

Joe Marino did a recent Locked On Bills podcast about Bills cap situation after this year.  He laid out the facts, and i am super optimistic after hearing that podcast.  We are in much better shape next year than this past.

 

we have 9 draft picks, Roos 5th year option only $ added, many extension possibilities, cut candidates, core players under contract 

[The Wiz]

35 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Hyde , Poyer, Oliver, Gabe, Morse, White all gone.  Milano extended, Dawkins and Knox will be re-worked or traded.

 

2025 will see Miller and Diggs re-worked or gone. 
 

The draft will have to be fruitful.

Are you saying you think they cut/trade Poyer?

 

His contact is through 2024.

[Mark Vader]

Do everything you can to sign Josh Allen from the Jaguars!

[DCofNC]

48 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Are you saying you think they cut/trade Poyer?

 

His contact is through 2024.

Yeah, dead cap is 2M next year, he’s gone unless he plays really well this year, which I don’t really expect.

[Big Turk]

The cap is increasing hugely next year, likely well more than what they speculate

[Tuco]

Spotrac is currently projecting a $235 million cap for next year. Just the fact that the 3-year window of subtracting the rest of what should have been the reduction in 2020 (by the deal that was made back then between NFL/NFLPA) will be back to even, will certainly have it rising more than that. And with all the new TV money coming in it's likely the cap will be much higher than $235 million in 2024. I don't really mean to throw water on the thread, but in this case, I really think it's too early to be concerned.

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The cap is increasing hugely next year, likely well more than what they speculate

right now we are estimated -34 mil  we not getting that kind of raise. its going to be hard

[Eastport bills]

13 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They’re in good shape but they have to find their next WR1 soon because Diggs’ cap number will begin to be a burden. Probably have 2 years left with Diggs, if that.

 

I could see an Allen extension soon which would push a lot of cap back. Chiefs are already talking Mahomes extension to make him the highest paid QB.

 

A tough decision next year will be Tre White. Post June cut next year saves $10+ million. With Allen restructuring and cutting White the Bills will be close to positive cap space. There’s plenty of other moves that probably get them around $20 million under. 

Tre White has to prove this season that he’s still an elite corner or he shouldn’t be here. He’s being paid like the top guys but some players can’t recover from ACL’s at that position. He’s vital to the defense, that’s for sure.

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, Billl said:

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

 

I'm not sure a full on re-build, but certainly a significant re-load. It would require 2023 to go particularly badly, like miss the playoffs bad. Which if Josh is healthy I think is unlikely. But if it does I expect regime change and then a re-load. 

 

I have a high bar for calling something a rebuild. It is rare that teams with franchise QBs rebuild. The Saints with Brees had to do it, mid career, but they are the only example I can think of. 

[BarleyNY]

14 hours ago, Adam727 said:

I don't usually like to start threads but I can't find a good answer to this question, and it's the off-season...  

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills are currently $35 million over the projected salary cap next year.  Micah Hyde, Gabe Davis, Daquan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, Poona Ford, Dane Jackson are all free agents along with a number of other less expensive role players.

 

The Bills have already spent about $20mil/year from future years cap space for the next several years in void years / restructures, so even though they can choose to keep pushing some money into future years at some point doing this too much will probably catch up with them and would mean we'd be dealing with some rebuilding year or years  right as Josh is in the middle of his prime as a QB, and Beane has said numerous times he's always trying to balance building for now and building for the future.  

 

I see $8million in relatively easy cuts in Hines/Neal.  The Bills can probably save some money next near by extending Taron Johnson.  After that it starts becoming much more difficult to see where the Bills save money.

 

Has anyone else looked at 2024 yet and what does this roster look like next year?  Who can the Bills afford to bring back and who might be on the chopping block for cap reasons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spotrac multi year Bills

 

That link is useful when looking at future seasons. There are some obvious restructures and some players that probably won’t be worth what they’re going to make. One huge issue is that the only good DL on the roster next season are Miller and Rousseau. Basham too if you want to count him. No DTs. Quality ones aren’t cheap and rookies usually don’t make a big impact. Here is what I see for 2024:

 

QB: Allen-restructure, need to sign a back up. 

 

RB: Hines-probable cut or pay cut, will need to add to the room.

 

WR: Diggs-possible restructure, need to replace Davis and add another.

 

TE: Looks set.

 

OL: Dawkins-possible extension. Morse possible cut. Need to add OT. 

 

DL: Miller-possible restructure. Need to add full DT roster of 3-4 players. Need DE depth. 

 

LB: Possible need of MLB depending on how players on the roster do this year. 

 

CB: Johnson is probable for an extension. Nothing likely to happen with White. 

 

S: Will need to replace Hyde and add depth. We could extend Rapp for one spot. 

 

Specials: Looks set. We could get a little cap space by restructuring Bass if we want. 

 

There you have it. 

[SoCal Deek]

I’m of the opinion that the lion’s share of next year’s roster turnover will be due to factors other than the cap. Like many on here I trust that the Front Office knows what they’re doing in the financial regard. But, let’s say the team makes the playoffs once again but craps the bed there, then I’m guessing turnover will come more out of choice than necessity. And likewise if they win the Super Bowl then roster turnover will come like it does for all championship squads as players, having accomplished the goal, will choose to leave for new challenges and greener ($) pastures. 

Edited May 15, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[KingBoots8]

11 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Hyde , Poyer, Oliver, Gabe, Morse, White all gone.  Milano extended, Dawkins and Knox will be re-worked or traded.

 

Poyer is here until 2024 per his new contract. I think he can certainly play well enough to see his contract through.

 

I personally would be surprised to let Hyde walk after this year provided he performs like his usual self post-injury. I think they get him a 1 year deal so he and Poyer ride into the sunset together and get a year of mentoring one or two of their replacements. I think Taylor Rapp might be a reclamation project like Poyer was when he joined, and I think we get a Safety to in the 2024 draft to fill out the remaining spot.

 

Davis I think had a down year and will come back nicely for us in 2023. That being said, I don’t think we have a way to afford his new contract so on this we agree- this is likely his last season here unless he takes a very team friendly deal.

 

 

Oliver, as much as the Bills coaches may love him, is going to get paid. I liked the pick and thought he’d be a game changer, but his play will likely not match his salary. Tough call but he’s going to command more than we can afford.

 

Morse likely retires, and perhaps White restructures or takes an extension based on his play this year. I don’t see him leaving, but it’s certainly possible.

 

In my “way too early draft needs” (where I don’t factor in who we lose to FA or who performs well) this is my prediction for needs:

 

WR, DT, S, OL, DE

[Warriorspikes51]

7 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

right now we are estimated -34 mil  we not getting that kind of raise. its going to be hard

Really? Then how is it the Saints are 50 million over the cap seemingly every spring and POOF they have 35 million in space and make quality signings?

If your owner is willing to pay $$$ cash money, there are A LOT of ways to play with the cap 

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

right now we are estimated -34 mil  we not getting that kind of raise. its going to be hard

 

The cap is mostly fake, they will be able to do what they need to do.

[TheWeatherMan]

15 hours ago, WhoTom said:

Trust the Beane. I expect some restructuring and plenty of the voodoo he performs every year.

 

Exactly.  By 2024 Allen will be paid like a mid tier QB.  We’re in great shape for the long haul with our key players signed long term.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, Billl said:

2024 is going to be a serious re-tooling year.  If the 2023 season goes poorly for whatever reason, it could be a full-on rebuild.

If Allen is truly a top three quarterback in this league, there’s really no such thing as a full on rebuild with a quarterback of that caliber.

 

rather you go from a top three favorite to win the Super Bowl to like a top five or six favorite.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

right now we are estimated -34 mil  we not getting that kind of raise. its going to be hard

No it’s not going to be hard. 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m of the opinion that the lion’s share of next year’s roster turnover will be due to factors other than the cap. Like many on here I trust that the Front Office knows what they’re doing in the financial regard. But, let’s say the team makes the playoffs once again but craps the bed there, then I’m guessing turnover will come more out of choice than necessity. And likewise if they win the Super Bowl then roster turnover will come like it does for all championship squads as players, having accomplished the goal, will choose to leave for new challenges and greener ($) pastures. 

Turnover is normal. 
 

All of our top positions are under veteran contracts. QB1, WR1, LT, Edge1, and CB1. So obviously there’s going to be some tough contract decision’s moving forward. I think Tre White will be the 1st to go. Hopefully Elam can replace White on a rookie deal. That will give us immediate relief. 
 

Beane is just filling in around those players. It would be nice to get a rookie deal at one of those positions.

Edited May 15, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Turnover is normal. 
 

All of our top positions are under contract. QB1, WR1, LT, Edge1, and CB1. So obviously there’s going to be some tough contract decision’s moving forward. I think Tre White will be the 1st to go. Hopefully Elam can replace White on a rookie deal. That will give us immediate relief. 
 

Beane is just filling in around those players. It would be nice to get a rookie deal at one of those positions.

You hit the nail on the head! The league is literally designed for one of two options. You either hit on draft picks and ride them through their rookie deals thus creating some level of roster stability, or you resign yourself to a high degree of roster turnover as the more expensive veteran free agents come and go from season to season. 

[jahnyc]

 A majority of our d-line will be free agents after this season, so our d-line will look different next season, particularly at DT.  I think it will be difficult to re-sign Gabe to a reasonable contract, so we could have a new #2 WR next season.  Safety will be interesting.  One has to think that Rapp signed with us because he believes he will be a starting safety in the near term, either with us or for another team.  I think Hyde might get a new contract (short in term) if he can show that he is all the way back and healthy after last season's surgery.

[PatsFanNH]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Why even raise the prospect of 2023 “going poorly”…?

 

They have just came off a 13-3 season that was disrupted by injury, travel and other issues …there is no reason to think that misfortune will all happen again which most other teams did not have to contend with ..

 

This comment seems typical of the “ pessimism ” I see from you about the Bills particularly since the last playoffs …

 

They are the 3rd or 4th favourite for the Championship in 2023… more than a few think that Beane has improved the team through some astute offseason buys and the only real loss they have had is Edmunds ..

 

Yes… that all guarantees nothing but I think the prospects of them having a poor season seem remote barring a JA injury…

The schedule this year is pretty hard!  Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs,Jets, Chargers and Dolphins  are all hard games and that’s almost half the schedule. 

[Warriorspikes51]

The word "Cap" should be censored on here 🤣

[machine gun kelly]

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The cap is increasing hugely next year, likely well more than what they speculate

Exactly Turk.  The early speculation is from $226 to $254 to 7.  There are various ways to extend and this thread screams of fear mongering.  We haven’t even started training camp.

 

We are 10-6, 13-3, 11-6, and then 13-3, but the sky is falling.  Ridiculous.  You and everyone else on this board have zero clue what will be done to effectively manage the cap including me.

 

What I do believe in is McBeane.  We will have another playoff year, and then see what happens.  There is no such thing as a super team.

[DCofNC]

12 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

Poyer is here until 2024 per his new contract. I think he can certainly play well enough to see his contract through.

 

I personally would be surprised to let Hyde walk after this year provided he performs like his usual self post-injury. I think they get him a 1 year deal so he and Poyer ride into the sunset together and get a year of mentoring one or two of their replacements. I think Taylor Rapp might be a reclamation project like Poyer was when he joined, and I think we get a Safety to in the 2024 draft to fill out the remaining spot.

 

Davis I think had a down year and will come back nicely for us in 2023. That being said, I don’t think we have a way to afford his new contract so on this we agree- this is likely his last season here unless he takes a very team friendly deal.

 

 

Oliver, as much as the Bills coaches may love him, is going to get paid. I liked the pick and thought he’d be a game changer, but his play will likely not match his salary. Tough call but he’s going to command more than we can afford.

 

Morse likely retires, and perhaps White restructures or takes an extension based on his play this year. I don’t see him leaving, but it’s certainly possible.

 

In my “way too early draft needs” (where I don’t factor in who we lose to FA or who performs well) this is my prediction for needs:

 

WR, DT, S, OL, DE

Cutting/trading Poyer after this year is over 5M in savings, or it’s a $7.5M hit to keep him, I don’t see him back, but maybe that’s just me.