RD 3, Pick 91: LB Dorian Williams, Tulane

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, Bigvinny said:

Shout Podcast last night said the bills were eyeing an offensive player who was taken shortly before they picked Williams. Maybe Tyjae Spears. 

Another day 2 middling running back - this one with arthritis and no ACL in his knee - sounds spot-on 🤣!

[Heavy Kevi]

19 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Guy looks like he plays with some violence.

 

 

 

Man when you watch him talk in that zoom interview... It's like stevie Johnson and Tremaine had a baby.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We got way too close to Simpson to settle for this. Given the run on linebackers that happened here, I'd love to know if this was Beane's guy, or if he misplayed this due to lack of capital. Given what we paid to the FA guard, it seems weird to prioritize that position higher than a starting MLB.

If that’s true, he misplayed it, then why not take the trade downs that Beane said were offered? 

[Beck Water]

Oh Boy.  The Boo Birds are out in force, I see.

 

I don't know if Dorian Williams can start in the NFL or play MLB.  But let's deconstruct some of the stuff here. 

 

Fact or Cap?

1) "too small".  I looked up the height and weight from draft profiles on the current top-10 paid ILB in AAV. 

 

Roquan Smith 6'1" 236 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 8

Shaq Leonard 6'2 234 draft grade 6.3  rd 2 pick 4

Fred Warner 6'3" 236 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 6

Tremaine Edmunds 6'5" 253 draft grade 7.3 rd 1 pick 16

CJ Mosely 6'2" 234 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 17

Deion Jones 6'1" 222 draft grade 6.1  rd 2 pick 21

Devondre Campbell 6'4" 232 draft grade 5.8 rd 4 pick 17

Demario Davis 6'2" 235 draft grade 5.12???? rd 3 pick 14
Devin White 6'0" 237 draft grade 6.7 rd 1 pick 5

Eric Kendricks 6'0" 232 draft grade 6.2 rd 2 pick 13

 

Our rd 3 pick: Dorian Williams: 6'1" 228 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 28.

 

Top-10 have an average of 6'2" +/- 2".  4 out of 10 players are 6'1 or shorter.  Therefore 6'1" is not too short to be a top LB in the NFL.

Top-10 have a draft profile weight of 235 +/- 8.  Only 1 player was lighter.  Therefor 228 is light to be an ILB.  However, gaining 5-7 lbs of muscle does not seem like an unreasonable expectation for NFL-level S&C programs to help him achieve. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, Milano's draft profile reports his weight at 223.   Pretty sure he's gained about 10 lbs since then, and from the look of him it's all muscle.

 

Conclusion: Dorian Williams is not "too short" to play LB in the NFL.  He is a bit light, but that can probably be improved with off-season conditioning.

 

2) Overdrafted

 

First point I'd like to make is that pundits and teams have different draft evaluations.  Let's look at the order in which LBs were ranked by NFL.com and who has been drafted to date:

 

 

 

Top 15 LB by NFL drafted in rank order 2-4-1-12-5-3-13-9. 

Some of these teams had their choice of NFL.com higher-ranked players at the time they made their selection, and drafted players ranked much lower.

Every year we see this; we also see players who have lower draft grades outperform and have better careers than players with higher draft grades.

 

And NFL isn't an anomaly; you would see similar if you look at the "draft boards" of most pundits.

 

Conclusion: Draft selection probably reflects internal team "draft boards" which differ from team to team, vs "reaching".   

Now the quality of each team's internal draft board is another question.

 

Again: I can't tell you if Dorian Williams will become a capable starting LB in the NFL.  All I can tell you is that his measurables (height and weight, didn't go into things like arm length but he's OK there) are not out-of-range for successful starting NFL ILBs.    And I can't tell you if he's a 5th round player the Bills "reached" for; all I can tell you is that Zierlein of NFL.com had him evaluated as the 9th best LB in the draft and a 3rd-4th rounder, but the draft order of LB suggests that internally, many teams had very different internal evaluations of this LB class.

 

I imagine the Bills may have had 3-4 LB they would rather have drafted, but these weren't an option unless they moved up in the 3rd round.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Best Williams Available]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

I am just glad we are restocking our Williams’. 

Great observation. Beane has lagged where  Whaley excelled.

[Success]

28 minutes ago, Beast said:

My Steelers buddy reached out and told me the Steelers were high on this kid. Had him in for one of their 30 visitors and went to his pro day. Said he felt the Steelers were going to take him but the Bills did and they then took Washington.

 

I know, fan speculation but this guy is a football nut so who knows?

 

I've seen wildly different evaluations of this player since we picked him.  The word "steal" came up a few times, which I always like to see. But regardless, it seems like opinions are all over the place on where he can play, how effective he can be and how his size translates to the NFL.

 

Nothing we can do is fans but wait, and hope he works out great.

 

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, Best Williams Available said:

Great observation. Beane has lagged where  Whaley excelled.

 

LOL.  Isn't Phillips Beane's Williams?

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, Bigvinny said:

Shout Podcast last night said the bills were eyeing an offensive player who was taken shortly before they picked Williams. Maybe Tyjae Spears. 

Yeah Beane said they had an offensive player who was right there with their evaluation of Dorian and it was back and forth. He gave the impression that he would’ve taken that player over Dorian, but that he went “a little bit before.” I went back and looked at the picks and it was either a RB or WR that he was talking about. There was a run on both. I’m glad it wasn’t another 3rd round RB.

[SCBills]

Just now, Success said:

 

I've seen wildly different evaluations of this player since we picked him.  The word "steal" came up a few times, which I always like to see. But regardless, it seems like opinions are all over the place on where he can play, how effective he can be and how his size translates to the NFL.

 

Nothing we can do is fans but wait, and hope he works out great.

 

The ESPN broadcast was interesting..

 

They critiqued the **** out of Simpson & Henley (who went earlier in the round) by pointing out how talented/athletic they are, but they really struggle in processing and read/react instincts.  
 

Then they gushed over Overshown and Williams mainly due to their violence and processing skills. 
 

I like the player, just don’t understand the fit.   I think we all need to be patient and realize we also have no idea what McDermott’s defense will look like.   Maybe we see a 4-3/4-2-5 split instead of primarily a 4-2-5 defense. 

[KingBoots8]

So, I’ll be honest. I like they player, but not a huge fan of the pick at 91. Felt to me like we could have moved back and maybe got another 5th or 6th and still got him. That being said, you need a partner to move back with and there just may not have been one for us. Rather than risk it, if he’s the guy, go get him. 
 

personally I’d have seen if we could get back to the top of the 4th and gone for it. Maybe get a 6th rounder as compensation. I don’t think there was a true home-run pick at 91 as all my 3rd rounders were gone except Jones and AT Perry (who was my preferred choice honestly). That being said - I think he will be a good player and am not upset with the selection at all. McD is running the Defense now, and if this is his guy I have confidence he will pick whomever he thinks is the best option

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Again, the part where the Bills take a 228 pound linebacker and put him as a Special Teamer and backup on the outside at pick #91. 
 

Can’t play middle, and shocker, a guy who struggles against blocks at Tulane, let alone the NFL. 
 

The obsession with Special Teams continues. 

 

C'Mon man.  The Bills didn't draft either Bernard or Williams to play ST.

 

Some things show a value with special teams.  Signing Taiwan Jones 5 of McDermott's 6 seasons when he's played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps in the last 3 seasons and 0 last season.  Signing and resigning Tyler Matakevich when he played only 3 defensive snaps last season - clear the the Bills see him only as a ST at this point and he was signed as a FA specifically for his special teams skills.  Keeping Jake Kumerow over Isaiah Hodgins when there was a roster crunch at CB due to injuries and the need to activate Tre White without him being able to play - obviously Hodgins was a better backup WR than Kumerow and that showed a value for ST.

 

But drafting young LB in the 3rd round who can't immediately start is not that thing.  It's not what they were drafted for.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, KingBoots8 said:

So, I’ll be honest. I like they player, but not a huge fan of the pick at 91. Felt to me like we could have moved back and maybe got another 5th or 6th and still got him. That being said, you need a partner to move back with and there just may not have been one for us. Rather than risk it, if he’s the guy, go get him. 
 

personally I’d have seen if we could get back to the top of the 4th and gone for it. Maybe get a 6th rounder as compensation. I don’t think there was a true home-run pick at 91 as all my 3rd rounders were gone except Jones and AT Perry (who was my preferred choice honestly). That being said - I think he will be a good player and am not upset with the selection at all. McD is running the Defense now, and if this is his guy I have confidence he will pick whomever he thinks is the best option

 

So I looked Perry up - wow, he does sound intriguing.  But the bit about "erratic hands" and "his drops and ordinary ball skills sap some of the excitement" would concern me.

By Jones do you mean OT Dawand Jones?

[gjv]

50 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

How often are you right?  Is there any need to hope you're wrong?

Yes, there is certainly a need to hope. I hope Torrance develops some quickness so he is not eaten up by 3 technique tackles. I hope we stop drafting special teamers in the 3rd round. This is becoming a troublesome pattern.

[Warcodered]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

C'Mon man.  The Bills didn't draft either Bernard or Williams to play ST.

 

Some things show a value with special teams.  Signing Taiwan Jones 5 of McDermott's 6 seasons when he's played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps in the last 3 seasons and 0 last season.  Signing and resigning Tyler Matakevich when he played only 3 defensive snaps last season - clear the the Bills see him only as a ST at this point.  Keeping Jake Kumerow over Isaiah Hodgins when there was a roster crunch at CB due to injuries and the need to activate Tre White without him being able to play.

 

But drafting young LB in the 3rd round who can't immediately start is not that thing.  It's not what they were drafted for.

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Yeah Beane said they had an offensive player who was right there with their evaluation of Dorian and it was back and forth. He gave the impression that he would’ve taken that player over Dorian, but that he went “a little bit before.” I went back and looked at the picks and it was either a RB or WR that he was talking about. There was a run on both. I’m glad it wasn’t another 3rd round RB.

 

In the 3rd round?  I was looking, and picks 22-24, 26, 27 were defensive players.  The two closest offensive picks were RB Devon Achane at 21 and RB Tank Bigsby at 25.  WR pretty much went earlier in the round, and Tyjae Spears at 18.

 

I agree, another 3rd round RB would have been 😬 for me.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

It’s just PTSD from last years Bernard pick.  
 

And the previous years Basham pick. 
 

Two years in a row there was a pick universally hated by the fans, and two years in a row .. at least in terms of immediate returns.. the fans were proven correct. 
 

I like Dorian Williams as a prospect more than I liked Terrell Bernard, but it’s hard for me to say our FO deserves the benefit of the doubt when they do this. 

[Redneck]

13 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

I went to Tulane. Let’s go!!!

My daughter went to Tulane!

[buffaloboyinATL]

13 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

YES! It's like they say...  Special Teams wins championships!

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

 

The Steelers used to be talked about as "Linebacker U".  It used to be talked about how they would look for athletically promising guys in the 4th-5th round, start them out playing ST, 2nd year they might back up the starter, 3rd year they play more and 4th year start.  Of course, in the current NFL with a 4 year rookie contract, that means you get like 1.5 years of starting out of a guy and if he has a great season, he hits FA and prices himself out of your market.

 

But anyway, someone has to play ST and outside of 3-4 of core ST players in addition to the specialists, the guys who play ST are the backups, which only makes sense.

[Donuts and Doritos]

I'd rather they traded the pick for DHop or traded back. If they could have.

[Mat68]

30 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

For me at least it's not so much the player, it's the plan. Or maybe the lack of knowledge (on my part) on exactly what the plan is...

 

Since the 3rd round last year the Bills have had 9 picks...3 of those picks have been for undersized LB's with VERY similar athletic profiles.

 

Bernard - 6007 - 224 - 4.59 40 - 8.88 RAS

Spector - 6011 - 233 - 4.60 40 - 9.13 RAS

Williams - 6010 - 228 - 4.49 40 - 8.81 RAS

 

That's 1/3 of our Draft haul since last year (so far), on REAL similar players, and not one of them is a natural replacement for Edmunds. Now, McD certainly seems to have a different plan in mind on how these LB's are going to be used...but 3 in 9 picks just seems like questionable roster building to me. I know this much. the Bills do not have a single WR with Tyler Scott's profile in house...So...I don't know...

 

 

Last year they let Klien walk and expected a decision between Milano and Edmunds. Buffalo needed a player that would fit their scheme in a meaningful way in 23.  Spector was a late rd pick who would be for depth.  
 

Now we know no Edmunds.  They are planning for that to be Bernard.  Spector could help save money by surpassing Matekevich.  Right now Williams could pass Klien as the third Backer.  If Bernard is not able to perform at Mike Williams could.  
 

Moving forward I dont expect Mcdermott to play defense like he has Edmunds and Milano.  I could see a move to more what he did in Carolina more multiple.  Having 3 linebakers on the field that can run cover and blitz.  Williams and Bernard are similar to Shaq Thompson and Thomas Davis in size and speed.  With Rapp more 3 saftey looks seems likley as well. 

[sonyab1974]

I never heard of him. I guess they aren’t going to show the bills on the draft today since I don’t see them on the number list and this post was made. 

[SectionC3]

3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Not a bad pick.  Probably a half a round early according to where I have him as a late 3rd early 4th. 

 

He is a pretty athletic LBer with good coverage abilities.  On the smaller side but I didnt hold that against him as much in my evaluation as he has a frame that can hold about 15 lbs without losing any speed or quickness which is can add that weight is London Fletcher size at 6'1 250.  I really would have liked more length in my Mike, especially after being spoiled by Edmunds.  But this class does not have that length.  He is a very instinctive player. Really good tackler, dont miss many.

 

Though he has very solid instincts he seems a bit slow to the spot at times, he can see where they he should be going but because he either isnt trusting what he is seeing or not as twitchy gets to the spot slow at times, which leads to having him fight through alot of wash.  I am not sure that is coachable at this point with him because i seen it at least 5 plays a game.  (To be honest Milano has that problem at times as well and he has gotten better at it so it very well could be a coachable thing).  Personal Side Note:  This also was an issue with me when I played.  It improved when coach drilled into me to change the priorities of where I am getting my tells.  and was able to react to what I was seeing a little faster.  

 

This LBer class really isnt that good, and it is full of alot of tweaners so I am not holding his size against him.  I think outlook for year one is immediately take Dodsons Role on ST, allowing Dodson to focus on Starting Mike.  I do see 3 down LBer capability in him. will take time.  

 

I would have taken Siaki Ika, DT out of Baylor here, but after this round (because we dont have a 4th) by the time we pick again the 3 down potential LBers will be gone.  So i understand this pick in that Construct of this years Draft.  If he can take over Tyler M's Role of a core ST at minimum by next year this will prove to be a good pick.  But at the 3rd round you are looking at tools in this draft and there is tools with him to work with like the athleticism and instincts he plays with.  

 

I would worry a bit of breaking down with the Weight of the OGs getting to him (Milano too) BUT the NFL is looking for more coverage LBers with how the offenses are trending.  He does really well in Zones, understands concepts of getting deeper to take the seams away as no one enters your zone.  (This was something Edmunds really struggled with) and has the athletic ability in Man to cover Backs and fluid hips for man coverage.  

 

We are at the point in this years draft where that is where you look.  After getting what I see two Day 1 starters in the 1st and 2nd.  I am ok with tools on this pick.  

 

This is kind of where I'm at (although you put it much more intelligently).  Bernard is a fast guy who plays exceedingly slow.  This guy doesn't have Bernard's track speed, but I think he plays a fair bit faster and certainly more violently.  I think they're going to try to beef him up a bit and eventually put him in the middle.  Whether he starts in September is a questionable thing, but the reality is that our LBs both missed some time over the past couple of years and tend to get beat up.  So unless we beef up at 3T, and even if we were to beef up at 3T, this guy probably is going to see the field one way or another this year.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Even if you like the player, does anyone think he was BPA or the Bills got good value there? At #91? 

 

I didn't see you over in the other thread explaining who you thought WAS BPA when we picked Williams in Rd 3.  DId I miss that?

 

If you think Williams wasn't BPA at pick #91, how about you Stand and Deliver and explain who was, in your view?

Edited April 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 hours ago, Blank Stare said:

Oh good. A special teamer with a premium asset third round pick. Why do they waste second and third round picks with these guys? Who cares what Smiley wants? Use rounds 5-7 and UDFAs to get Smiley what he needs. Add him to the pile of mediocre LBs after Milano. We didn’t need another Will. We need a Mike. Back to back head scratching third round picks. 

‘A special teamer right away’ doesn’t mean they don’t expect him to develop into a starting linebacker role to be fair.  Wasn’t a deep mlb class…outside of jack Campbell I don’t think there was a ‘no doubter contribute right away mlb’ in the entire draft let alone late in the third. 
 

if we had a fourth rounder still maybe there’s a slight chance he’s still on the board in the 4th but I doubt it.  I’d pick the guy with the highest ceiling there and it looks like that’s what we did…it’s not like they are incapable of increasing his playing weight/strength 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Moving forward I dont expect Mcdermott to play defense like he has Edmunds and Milano.  I could see a move to more what he did in Carolina more multiple.  Having 3 linebakers on the field that can run cover and blitz.  Williams and Bernard are similar to Shaq Thompson and Thomas Davis in size and speed.  With Rapp more 3 saftey looks seems likley as well. 

 

I think this is a good observation.  I don't even think we need to go back to Carolina - I think we can look at what Frazier/McDermott did in 2017 before they drafted Edmunds and when Milano was a rookie STer fighting his way into the lineup.  And you're right, they mixed up the personnel at LB a lot more.

 

[Blank Stare]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

‘A special teamer right away’ doesn’t mean they don’t expect him to develop into a starting linebacker role to be fair.  Wasn’t a deep mlb class…outside of jack Campbell I don’t think there was a ‘no doubter contribute right away mlb’ in the entire draft let alone late in the third. 
 

if we had a fourth rounder still maybe there’s a slight chance he’s still on the board in the 4th but I doubt it.  I’d pick the guy with the highest ceiling there and it looks like that’s what we did…it’s not like they are incapable of increasing his playing weight/strength 

I don’t disagree. All we can say on any of these guys is “we’ll see”. Not having the 4th rounder definitely factored into my reaction to this pick. Of course I’ll root for the guy’s success now that he’s on the team. 

[Shemp]

13 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

Joe Marino will like this pick, he was hoping the Bills would target him if they waited on LB. 

Marino hates this pick. 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

And to all those that are still in doom and gloom about the pick?

 

read this

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-get-enormous-steal-in-third-round-of-nfl-draft/ar-AA1awBWf?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=46b0156636804db78e6f338b32f4b176&ei=12

 

I think its funny, ESPN, NFL Network, Now USA Today and so on think we got a steal in round 3 and a good player. 

 

YES GM said he will start at special teams.. START... that does not mean by the time week 2 of preseason the dude wont win a job.

 

In short, because of how fast ILB went in this draft.. we did the best we could. 

 

RELAX lol

 

What was more important in the first 2 rounds? A weapon for josh and a likely starter on the line or defense? we can not have star studded players at every position.. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by PrimeTime101

[PrimeTime101]

11 hours ago, mrags said:

I don’t think he ever starts or see significant time with this pick. Ever. He will play STs and that’s it. That’s my take and I’m sticking to it. Wasted pick. 

read

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-get-enormous-steal-in-third-round-of-nfl-draft/ar-AA1awBWf?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=46b0156636804db78e6f338b32f4b176&ei=12

 

Again.. ESPN, NFL Network and USA Today sports analysts love this guy...

 

HE at the very least is a starter in special teams... many think he will excel

[bills6969]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Oh Boy.  The Boo Birds are out in force, I see.

 

I don't know if Dorian Williams can start in the NFL or play MLB.  But let's deconstruct some of the stuff here. 

 

Fact or Cap?

1) "too small".  I looked up the height and weight from draft profiles on the current top-10 paid ILB in AAV. 

 

Roquan Smith 6'1" 236 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 8

Shaq Leonard 6'2 234 draft grade 6.3  rd 2 pick 4

Fred Warner 6'3" 236 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 6

Tremaine Edmunds 6'5" 253 draft grade 7.3 rd 1 pick 16

CJ Mosely 6'2" 234 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 17

Deion Jones 6'1" 222 draft grade 6.1  rd 2 pick 21

Devondre Campbell 6'4" 232 draft grade 5.8 rd 4 pick 17

Demario Davis 6'2" 235 draft grade 5.12???? rd 3 pick 14
Devin White 6'0" 237 draft grade 6.7 rd 1 pick 5

Eric Kendricks 6'0" 232 draft grade 6.2 rd 2 pick 13

 

Our rd 3 pick: Dorian Williams: 6'1" 228 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 28.

 

Top-10 have an average of 6'2" +/- 2".  4 out of 10 players are 6'1 or shorter.  Therefore 6'1" is not too short to be a top LB in the NFL.

Top-10 have a draft profile weight of 235 +/- 8.  Only 1 player was lighter.  Therefor 228 is light to be an ILB.  However, gaining 5-7 lbs of muscle does not seem like an unreasonable expectation for NFL-level S&C programs to help him achieve. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, Milano's draft profile reports his weight at 223.   Pretty sure he's gained about 10 lbs since then, and from the look of him it's all muscle.

 

Conclusion: Dorian Williams is not "too short" to play LB in the NFL.  He is a bit light, but that can probably be improved with off-season conditioning.

 

2) Overdrafted

 

First point I'd like to make is that pundits and teams have different draft evaluations.  Let's look at the order in which LBs were ranked by NFL.com and who has been drafted to date:

 

 

 

Top 15 LB by NFL drafted in rank order 2-4-1-12-5-3-13-9. 

Some of these teams had their choice of NFL.com higher-ranked players at the time they made their selection, and drafted players ranked much lower.

Every year we see this; we also see players who have lower draft grades outperform and have better careers than players with higher draft grades.

 

And NFL isn't an anomaly; you would see similar if you look at the "draft boards" of most pundits.

 

Conclusion: Draft selection probably reflects internal team "draft boards" which differ from team to team, vs "reaching".   

Now the quality of each team's internal draft board is another question.

 

Again: I can't tell you if Dorian Williams will become a capable starting LB in the NFL.  All I can tell you is that his measurables (height and weight, didn't go into things like arm length but he's OK there) are not out-of-range for successful starting NFL ILBs.    And I can't tell you if he's a 5th round player the Bills "reached" for; all I can tell you is that Zierlein of NFL.com had him evaluated as the 9th best LB in the draft and a 3rd-4th rounder, but the draft order of LB suggests that internally, many teams had very different internal evaluations of this LB class.

 

I imagine the Bills may have had 3-4 LB they would rather have drafted, but these weren't an option unless they moved up in the 3rd round.

 

people acting like every elite LB in the league is 6’5.  Being tall is not a primary trait of an elite LB

[PrimeTime101]

16 minutes ago, Shemp said:

Marino hates this pick. 

 

 

That was a knee jerk reaction just like many of us on this pick... HE loves the first 2 and hates this then complains we could not get a mic LB... where in the heck are we going to find that, at that point in the draft? he didnt say he hated it.. he said he did not understand it.. wanted better for the position... You know what you do when you can not get a great player for a position? You creat as much freaking competition for that position in hopes ONE rises to the occasion... Come on man.. 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Oh Boy.  The Boo Birds are out in force, I see.

 

I don't know if Dorian Williams can start in the NFL or play MLB.  But let's deconstruct some of the stuff here. 

 

Fact or Cap?

1) "too small".  I looked up the height and weight from draft profiles on the current top-10 paid ILB in AAV. 

 

Roquan Smith 6'1" 236 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 8

Shaq Leonard 6'2 234 draft grade 6.3  rd 2 pick 4

Fred Warner 6'3" 236 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 6

Tremaine Edmunds 6'5" 253 draft grade 7.3 rd 1 pick 16

CJ Mosely 6'2" 234 draft grade 7.0 rd 1 pick 17

Deion Jones 6'1" 222 draft grade 6.1  rd 2 pick 21

Devondre Campbell 6'4" 232 draft grade 5.8 rd 4 pick 17

Demario Davis 6'2" 235 draft grade 5.12???? rd 3 pick 14
Devin White 6'0" 237 draft grade 6.7 rd 1 pick 5

Eric Kendricks 6'0" 232 draft grade 6.2 rd 2 pick 13

 

Our rd 3 pick: Dorian Williams: 6'1" 228 draft grade 6.1 rd 3 pick 28.

 

Top-10 have an average of 6'2" +/- 2".  4 out of 10 players are 6'1 or shorter.  Therefore 6'1" is not too short to be a top LB in the NFL.

Top-10 have a draft profile weight of 235 +/- 8.  Only 1 player was lighter.  Therefor 228 is light to be an ILB.  However, gaining 5-7 lbs of muscle does not seem like an unreasonable expectation for NFL-level S&C programs to help him achieve. 

 

As I've said elsewhere, Milano's draft profile reports his weight at 223.   Pretty sure he's gained about 10 lbs since then, and from the look of him it's all muscle.

 

Conclusion: Dorian Williams is not "too short" to play LB in the NFL.  He is a bit light, but that can probably be improved with off-season conditioning.

 

2) Overdrafted

 

First point I'd like to make is that pundits and teams have different draft evaluations.  Let's look at the order in which LBs were ranked by NFL.com and who has been drafted to date:

 

 

 

Top 15 LB by NFL drafted in rank order 2-4-1-12-5-3-13-9. 

Some of these teams had their choice of NFL.com higher-ranked players at the time they made their selection, and drafted players ranked much lower.

Every year we see this; we also see players who have lower draft grades outperform and have better careers than players with higher draft grades.

 

And NFL isn't an anomaly; you would see similar if you look at the "draft boards" of most pundits.

 

Conclusion: Draft selection probably reflects internal team "draft boards" which differ from team to team, vs "reaching".   

Now the quality of each team's internal draft board is another question.

 

Again: I can't tell you if Dorian Williams will become a capable starting LB in the NFL.  All I can tell you is that his measurables (height and weight, didn't go into things like arm length but he's OK there) are not out-of-range for successful starting NFL ILBs.    And I can't tell you if he's a 5th round player the Bills "reached" for; all I can tell you is that Zierlein of NFL.com had him evaluated as the 9th best LB in the draft and a 3rd-4th rounder, but the draft order of LB suggests that internally, many teams had very different internal evaluations of this LB class.

 

I imagine the Bills may have had 3-4 LB they would rather have drafted, but these weren't an option unless they moved up in the 3rd round.

MY god... you did the long version of what I have been saying. THANK YOU!

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

14 hours ago, MWK said:

Hopefully he is better than special teamer Terrell Bernard

Hey, people gotta start somewhere. 

[BADOLBILZ]

18 minutes ago, Shemp said:

Marino hates this pick. 

 

 

 

 

If I felt the way that Marino does I wouldn't have had Williams as a 5th or 6th round pick.   Sometimes I am perplexed about how some of these guys who make a living doing draft analysis stack their boards.   He's also not really high on Torrence despite having him as his 40th best player.   My opinion is about the same........it's an awkward fit.......but in general I wouldn't have had him that close to the 1st round to begin with.   Marino was literally mocking him to go in round 1.  

[mrags]

11 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

read

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-get-enormous-steal-in-third-round-of-nfl-draft/ar-AA1awBWf?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=46b0156636804db78e6f338b32f4b176&ei=12

 

Again.. ESPN, NFL Network and USA Today sports analysts love this guy...

 

HE at the very least is a starter in special teams... many think he will excel

I don’t care about STs. I’ve proven that as a take forever now. Unless you are getting an elite returner it means nothing me ever. Any schmuck can run down the field and tackle guys. Could have picked up an UDFA to cover kicks. 
 

he won’t play as a LB unless we have a ton of injuries. 
 

unless McD decides he wants to go with a true 4-3 and utilize 3LBs on the field at once. But I doubt that’s happening. And if it does, they already had multiple other LBs that are just like this guy in the roster. 

[Sierra Foothills]

14 hours ago, DJB said:

Someone tell me how to feel so I can be angry or happy 

 

Comic gold!

 

14 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Is it possible we selected Williams based on his appearance to Tremaine Edmunds?

 

He jumps off the video for sure!

 

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This was not a BPA pick, this was a need pick. But honestly I think I'm okay with it. It's a weak draft and we have to ensure Terrel Bernard isn't our starting MLB.

 

On the other hand so many detractors are saying that Williams doesn't fill a need (MLB) so actually, isn't it possible that the Bills viewed him as BPA?

 

14 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

The guy who will compete with Bernard to see who will compete with Klein for the right to backup Dodson.

 

I don't agree... but I laughed.

 

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Terrel Bernard 6'1" 224 30" arms

Dorian Williams 6'1" 228 33 3/4" arms

 

I'm not not worried about the weight as I've read elsewhere - Matt Milano was 224 or something, taking a look at the guy I think he's put on a good bit of muscle with an NFL-quality training program

 

To add to Beck Water, Williams and Bernard look like completely different players on video. Not at all alike. Also Williams is faster, has longer arms, greater wingspan, bigger hands (10.25")... a guy who can probably add some weight without losing much speed. I love how he plays downhill and tries to hit with force on every play. I love his speed and commitment to each play.

 

6 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Louis Riddick said:

 

"Its unreal how this man can read splits, backfield tilts...he is off the spot in a hurry, he is downhill, his run hit ability is as good as any LB in this draft...Dorian and Milano will be an absolute terror LB duo...the Bills have got one here, that is a heck of a pick up by Beane and McDermott"

 

Mel Kiper Jr said:

 

"Off the charts production, great instincts and recognition skills, leaves a lasting impression with his tackling"

 

I approve.

 

After initially thinking to myself "Who?" and reading scouting reports (from reputable scouts) and watching game video, this pick is growing on me.

 

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Turns out he (Marino) was right on both those players.

 

Say the Lions don’t take Campbell at 18th, does anyone think he drops 41 more spots to the Bills at #59?

 

So the evaluation was correct that he was worthy of a first round pick, even a high 2nd makes sense.

 

Off topic and not your point but the fact of Campbell going at 18 proves nothing to me. As they say, it only takes one team... and that team was the one that traded up to draft Jahmyr Gibbs. That move, whether right or wrong doesn't allow anyone to give them the benefit of the doubt on Campbell, IMO.

 

54 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

People seem to be running with two things Beane said and ignoring any context to them. He said that he'll start outside because he's coming from a simpler system and learning a more complex system. Then he mentioned he's good at special teams too which is somehow a bad thing? 🤷‍♂️ 

 

Exactly. Beane said:

 

1) "He won't start at MLB." This immediately caused cognitive meltdown among Bills fans. It led to "if he's not a MLB candidate, why did we draft him?" which led to "He's a reach and not the BPA." Logically if he doesn't fill a need doesn't that make it more likely that he was BPA in their eyes?

 

2) "He'll start on special teams." This was admittedly a stupid thing for Beane to say. It's like a politician saying "Default the Porpoises." People are going to have the wrong take away from the message. Beane did not mean to say that they drafted a player only for special teams but that's how many of you are choosing to take it.

 

Williams looks like an excellent football player. I'll withhold any further judgement until I actually see him play.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Any 3rd rounder should be thought of as 1-2 years down the road. Too many people focusing on his immediate impact.

[PrimeTime101]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Any 3rd rounder should be thought of as 1-2 years down the road. Too many people focusing on his immediate impact.

and yet around 35% of the third rounders started last year. That is a bad narrative. 

[stlbills13]

I actually like the player quite a bit but it just doesn't really fill a need. With so few picks, I was hoping to address that hole but we'll see how the rest of the off-season goes

[JohnNord]

If we’re looking at this on the surface level, it’s a bad pick.  For the second straight year in a row it looks at thought they’ve drafted a small athletic LB to play special teams without a path to playing a meaningful role on defense.  
 

I hope the Bills know something we don’t