"We can't get an impact WR in the 2nd round"

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

2019 had Marquis Brown and N’Keal Harry go in the late 1st. 
 

Deebo, AJ Brown, Dk, in the 2nd. Dionte Johnson, Terry McClurin in the 3rd. Hunter Renfrow in the 5th.

 

Teams just missed out on WR talent. No one got pushed down do to talent at the top. Patriots would love a do over.

 

In 2020 the Bills felt Gabe Davis was much higher rated but got pushed down do to the amount of highly graded WRs.

 

 

Yeah and the grading is just very subjective.   Sometimes the perception that there are a lot of good players pushes a player down the board like Davis was.............but also sometimes the rising tide raises all ships and players who don't warrant the grade get a bump because the class is perceived as special.   

 

I've contended that if you put Jonathan Mingo in a lot of prior drafts he is a late 1st round prospect.    Now in recent weeks we've actually started to see some acknowledgement of that.....but to my surprise he's largely been viewed as 3rd-4th rounder since the season ended.

 

I think he's still a high risk that early but given that teams gamble on a premium WR who could possibly play the X position........I'd EXPECT he'd be a late first or early second rounder.     But IMO the perception that the non-slots in this class are a bunch of underachievers hurts him.   He doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for his QB play, etc..

Edited April 24, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[NewEra]

52 minutes ago, NewEra said:

One has Josh allen, the other has a retired qb.  I don’t care about numbers.  I have eyes.  As do NFL GMs.  And we’ll see how they feel when the contracts are given out.

 

barring major injury- my $100 to your 75 that Pittman gets a more lucrative contract. 

@TheWeatherMan care to make the same bet?  Didn’t think so

[Buffalo_Stampede]

23 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Harris can’t stay on the field so far in his years with NE. Beane has not addressed the Edmunds departure and he hasn’t improved our talent level at receiver adequately. With RT and TE a need, are you confident we will improve our roster to compete with Cinn. and KC?

We’re not far behind them if at all. Pass rush is still our biggest issue vs these teams in the playoffs. I still want to see a veteran pass rusher added, there are many out there.

 

I don’t know what the plan is to replace Edmunds. That’s the biggest hole from last year to this year. I feel like our team is pretty equal overall to last years team right now. 

If they’re serious about loading up for Super Bowl run we’ll see aggressive moves at WR and pass rusher before the season starts. 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

28 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah and the grading is just very subjective.   Sometimes the perception that there are a lot of good players pushes a player down the board like Davis was.............but also sometimes the rising tide raises all ships and players who don't warrant the grade get a bump because the class is perceived as special.   

 

I've contended that if you put Jonathan Mingo in a lot of prior drafts he is a late 1st round prospect.    Now in recent weeks we've actually started to see some acknowledgement of that.....but to my surprise he's largely been viewed as 3rd-4th rounder since the season ended.

 

I think he's still a high risk that early but given that teams gamble on a premium WR who could possibly play the X position........I'd EXPECT he'd be a late first or early second rounder.     But IMO the perception that the non-slots in this class are a bunch of underachievers hurts him.   He doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for his QB play, etc..

Mingo looks the part. A week or 2 ago I got to watching him and immediately posted here that I fell for Mingo. I do see a lot of people saying he’s higher than we all thought. He definitely looks like an early 2nd now.

[gobills404]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

So the numbers don’t actually reflect that

 

thanks

Pittman has more receptions, more yards, and a MUCH higher catch % with way worse QB play. Your welcome.
 

Source: a 60 second google search

Edited April 24, 2023 by gobills404

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Such a weak post John.  Yes John, numbers 💯 reflect that Pittman is better. It’s 2023, I’m sure you can use the search engine of choice to show you that Pittman > Davis.
 

Almost all the numbers reflect Pittman being better.  Catches, yards, catch%, drops,  Thanks to Josh Allen (and all the bum QBs throwing the ball to Pittman) Davis has more TDs and a dominant yards per reception. 
 

 

I agree.  Same for Ed.  It’s time to get paid.  Tremaine did the same last year.  

I didn’t mean to come off so snarky
 

I honestly think that Pittman and Gabe Davis are the same player and think that he takes a lot of flak maybe not a legitimate one a but I think the gabe is a two

[Eastport bills]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We’re not far behind them if at all. Pass rush is still our biggest issue vs these teams in the playoffs. I still want to see a veteran pass rusher added, there are many out there.

 

I don’t know what the plan is to replace Edmunds. That’s the biggest hole from last year to this year. I feel like our team is pretty equal overall to last years team right now. 

If they’re serious about loading up for Super Bowl run we’ll see aggressive moves at WR and pass rusher before the season starts. 

 

 

I can’t dismiss your assessment about the overall viability of the roster because Josh makes everyone better. I hope Beane is saving his aggressive side for the draft.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

I can’t dismiss your assessment about the overall viability of the roster because Josh makes everyone better. I hope Beane is saving his aggressive side for the draft.

It’s a very good roster though. The draft won’t change much.

[billsfan89]

It comes down to right player right system. The Bills need to identify a good WR and get him, doesn’t matter when and where.

[Rigotz]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Big difference? Those draft classes likely had better WR talent to push more players into the 2nd round…

 

Do you guys even bother to research this stuff or do you just make something up and assume the worst?

 

2019 Draft:

1st round: Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry... no other WRs 

2nd round: Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, DK Metcalf

3rd round: Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Tillman, Mingo, both solid options. 

[Allen2Moulds]

5 hours ago, cd1 said:

Josh Allen has guys that can run fast and catch the ball. 

 

Josh Allen needs an O line that can give him enough TIME to throw the ball.

Agreed. My ideal draft would be Cyrus in the 1st, and than somehow end up with Campbell and Mingo with the next 2 picks. Would take some maneuvering. 

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

People were so just flat-out STUPID in their evaluation of a guy with size AND speed.

 

Like how easy was that pick

 

Yeah... His game tape wasn't enough. He was a one trick pony. Lol. The "one trick" the Bills lacked at the time. LMAO😂😂

[JoPoy88]

7 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Why am I seeing this loser mentality in every thread?

 

It's ok if you want to trade for DeAndre Hopkins or if you feel Beane has a bad track record in the 2nd round ... but multiple threads have these snarky little comments like "oh boy, can't wait to get another AJ Epenesa this year!!" 

 

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Again, totally fine if you like the certainty of trading for Hopkins, but acting like 2nd round picks are "overrated" is insane. Imagine having any of those guys above for cheap across from Diggs for the next 4 years. Now, imagine using the $20M/yr Hopkins is due on a DE/DT/OG/etc. from Free Agency... in ADDITION to still having Deebo, Brown, Higgins, etc. THAT is why 2nd round picks are valuable. Drop the "we never get it right :(" attitude and try a little optimism. 👍

 

who are you quoting with that title? Who has said you can’t get one in rd 2? Especially this draft, with so many decent day two options at receiver (as opposed to a bumper crop of top of 1st round elite guys)? 

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I didn’t mean to come off so snarky
 

I honestly think that Pittman and Gabe Davis are the same player and think that he takes a lot of flak maybe not a legitimate one a but I think the gabe is a two

 

Davis just doesn't catch the ball well enough. It sounds so basic and reductive, but the dude's technique has just fallen apart; fingers pointing AT the ball when he does extend his arms (wtf is that?!) or in opposite directions (like an RB taking a handoff) when he lets the ball get into his body. 

 

It's probably correctable, I guess, in the spirit of the growth mindset. But I feel like either Davis or possibly someone else in the room actually defended his "unorthodox" form last season...

 

Either way, Davis has had REALLY bad stretches each of the last two seasons where either he and Josh weren't reading coverages/leverages the same way and/or he just wasn't catching the damn ball. I know he's been dinged and has soldiered through it (I think 100% snaps in that dangerous Miami heat WHILE also hurt). But it's been oddly uneven, and we're probably all still a bit messed up by his meteoric playoff game against KC's single man coverage that didn't yet leverage against his signature in-breaking routes. 

[Dan in Owego]

26 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Yeah... His game tape wasn't enough. He was a one trick pony. Lol. The "one trick" the Bills lacked at the time. LMAO😂😂

Well for myself i hate to admit that i saw a David Boston type dude. 🙄

 

Not so much style of play, but maybe to much emphasis on his body and not his game.

 

Now it feels like a called third strike in slow pitch softball where i never swung at a pitch lol.

[mrags]

Just curious how many of those 2nd round receivers Beane drafted. 
 

Oh wait, I got it. 0

[Dan in Owego]

28 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Davis just doesn't catch the ball well enough. It sounds so basic and reductive, but the dude's technique has just fallen apart; fingers pointing AT the ball when he does extend his arms (wtf is that?!) or in opposite directions (like an RB taking a handoff) when he lets the ball get into his body. 

 

It's probably correctable, I guess, in the spirit of the growth mindset. But I feel like either Davis or possibly someone else in the room actually defended his "unorthodox" form last season...

 

Either way, Davis has had REALLY bad stretches each of the last two seasons where either he and Josh weren't reading coverages/leverages the same way and/or he just wasn't catching the damn ball. I know he's been dinged and has soldiered through it (I think 100% snaps in that dangerous Miami heat WHILE also hurt). But it's been oddly uneven, and we're probably all still a bit messed up by his meteoric playoff game against KC's single man coverage that didn't yet leverage against his signature in-breaking routes. 

If anyone here has played outfield you will know that when tracking a deep ball you need to run on the "balls" of your feet because if you slam them down like a big old elephant the ball does odd movements. To me he has that heavy slamming foot running style that may lend to a later discovery of when to put his damn hands up🤔

 

Just a thought I've had watching him.

[Success]

It wouldn't shock me if we didn't pick a WR at all.

 

And I don't think that would a bad thing.  Improving the line should be the top priority.  Allen will make all of the guys we have stars if he has more time.

 

[akcash]

I think you can get an impact in the 4th this year. It's crazy deep with mid round receivers this year that could become stars in NFL.

[Warriorspikes51]

51 minutes ago, Success said:

It wouldn't shock me if we didn't pick a WR at all.

 

And I don't think that would a bad thing.  Improving the line should be the top priority.  Allen will make all of the guys we have stars if he has more time.

 

seems unlikely. We had a lot of visits with WR’s

[HappyDays]

Quote

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

 

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

Edited April 25, 2023 by HappyDays

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Go OT, Mingo, AND trade for Hopkins.  
 

That’s my dream scenario.   

^^
 

Yes I’m good with Wright at 27 - if no OT trade back again - assuming we’ve done so already with Arizona for Nuke

Wright, Mingo and trade a 3rd for Dhop would be a HR.  Dream scenario. 

[MJS]

Well, this WR draft kind of sucks, in my opinion.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

12 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Why am I seeing this loser mentality in every thread?

 

It's ok if you want to trade for DeAndre Hopkins or if you feel Beane has a bad track record in the 2nd round ... but multiple threads have these snarky little comments like "oh boy, can't wait to get another AJ Epenesa this year!!" 

 

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Again, totally fine if you like the certainty of trading for Hopkins, but acting like 2nd round picks are "overrated" is insane. Imagine having any of those guys above for cheap across from Diggs for the next 4 years. Now, imagine using the $20M/yr Hopkins is due on a DE/DT/OG/etc. from Free Agency... in ADDITION to still having Deebo, Brown, Higgins, etc. THAT is why 2nd round picks are valuable. Drop the "we never get it right :(" attitude and try a little optimism. 👍

 

Most of the best Wrs in NFL are drafted after the first rd . It’s kind of like the running back position when it comes to value in the draft but hardly anyone talks about it. U kind find great Wr’s threw out the draft. 

[Rigotz]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

Or…

 

Hold on…

 

Let me see if I can figure out how to do this…

 

Hmm…

 

Trade down?

[hondo in seattle]

Like a lot of fans, I was underwhelmed with our receiving corps last year (not including Diggs).  Still - and this is an admittedly a crazy idea though not as crazy as the infamous Ditka Ricky Williams draft - I wouldn't be upset if Beane drafted nothing but offensive linemen.   With 6 picks, we'd be bound to upgrade our line... wouldn't we?  

 

Give the receivers more time to gain separation and they'll get open.  

[BigAl2526]

I don't think it is certain that any WRs drafted in the first round will be an impact player.  Jazon Smith-Njigba has decent odds of being an impact player.  Beyond him, I think it is a crap shoot.

[Sierra Foothills]

14 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Still - and this is an admittedly a crazy idea though not as crazy as the infamous Ditka Ricky Williams draft - I wouldn't be upset if Beane drafted nothing but offensive linemen.   With 6 picks, we'd be bound to upgrade our line... wouldn't we?  

 

Give the receivers more time to gain separation and they'll get open.  

 

https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxAn-oObwNlst0jdIBUCj1KYfSMDUOMQIf

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[LABILLBACKER]

21 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Most of the best Wrs in NFL are drafted after the first rd . It’s kind of like the running back position when it comes to value in the draft but hardly anyone talks about it. U kind find great Wr’s threw out the draft. 

This is very true. I think something like 23% of NFL players are udfa's.  If we don't land the wr we're after at 27 or 59, then hopefully we can trade for Dhop and look for udfa value. Ride Gabe for one final year.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/25/2023 at 4:33 AM, Rigotz said:

Why am I seeing this loser mentality in every thread?

 

It's ok if you want to trade for DeAndre Hopkins or if you feel Beane has a bad track record in the 2nd round ... but multiple threads have these snarky little comments like "oh boy, can't wait to get another AJ Epenesa this year!!" 

 

Every GM misses draft picks... but look at WR's drafted in the 2nd round in the past 4 years alone:

- Deebo Samuel

- AJ Brown

- DK Metcalf

- Diontae Johnson

- Tee Higgins

- Michael Pittman

- Chase Claypool

- Elijah Moore

- Christian Watson

 

Again, totally fine if you like the certainty of trading for Hopkins, but acting like 2nd round picks are "overrated" is insane. Imagine having any of those guys above for cheap across from Diggs for the next 4 years. Now, imagine using the $20M/yr Hopkins is due on a DE/DT/OG/etc. from Free Agency... in ADDITION to still having Deebo, Brown, Higgins, etc. THAT is why 2nd round picks are valuable. Drop the "we never get it right :(" attitude and try a little optimism. 👍

 

 

 

 

Yup. Good point.

 

It's also fair to point out that this year is a bit weaker than recent past years, but a 2nd round WR could easily turn out to be a terrific pick.

 

And IMO you're being a bit kind with the Hopkins folks. Unless Arizona eats a ton of his contract, he's just too expensive, and probably would cost too much in trade to be a one-year rental, yet we'd have a very hard time re-signing him after this year.

 

I think it's pretty unlikely we end up with him. Not impossible, but quite unlikely.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/25/2023 at 2:10 PM, HappyDays said:

 

Your post proves the opposite of the point you're trying to make. Other than DK Metcalf (and Diontae Johnson, who doesn't belong on this list), all of these players were drafted well before pick #59. And Metcalf didn't fall because of talent, he fell because of a medical red flag.

 

There's usually a big run on WRs from pick 33 to 50. It's the kind of premium position where by the time you get to round 3 you're already looking at round 4 grades on your board.

 

So the reality is that in the area the Bills are picking in the 2nd round, it's usually a dead zone for WR talent. And as long as Allen is in his prime it's hard to imagine us picking much higher than #59.

 

So if we ever want a true game changing player at the position on a rookie deal we will either have to draft one in the 1st round or get lucky with a random day three prospect. Your example Christian Watson is actually a good example of what I'm saying - he was a 2nd round WR that the Bills would have had to take in the 1st round to have a chance at him.

 

 

 

Van Jefferson at #57

Metcalf at #64 (and Metcalf had injury problems in college but his fall was more from concerns about stiffness and a limited route tree and concerns he would need a lot of development)

Parris Campbell at #59 exactly\

Terry McLaurin at #76

Smith-Shuster at #62

Cooper Kupp at #69

Chris Godwin at #84

Tyler Boyd at #55

Tyreek in the 5th

 

You can still get guys at that level or later. 

 

It's not a dead zone.

 

Yes, the percentages go down the further back you go, but that absolutely does not mean you can't do very well there a pretty reasonable percentage of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

[BearNorth]

Since he posts WR numbers in terms of catches and TD's, Kelce was a third-rounder, probably the best tight end in league history.

 

 

[90sBills]

Evaluating players is such a subjective process. There will always be talent that drops to later rounds. Not sure if Beane is able to identify WR talent given his track record. 

[DCofNC]

On 4/24/2023 at 2:20 PM, John from Riverside said:

Do the numbers actually reflect that?

You are joking, right?  Pittman has far out produced Davis and he’s done it with half the QB throwing him the ball.

[jethro_tull]

Good points.  It is difficult to get an immediate impact WR in the first round, let alone he second