Is Edmunds decision the most difficult Beane has ever faced?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Of course trading up and taking Allen was the most impactful. 

But I'd argue the decision on Edmunds will have repercussions for years. There are so many options. Sign him long term and spread out the cap hit to a player that at best has had an inconsistent impact since entering the NFL. Even spreading out the can hit, it will still commit massive resources to the two linebackers. Tag and force him to play under the tag. Tag and trade. Simply let him walk. 

This next decision may ultimately make or break Beane's career. 

The window to tag a player has already opened and a decision must be made by March 7th. 

Should be an interesting week ahead. 

[dorquemada]

Agreed.  I was firmly in the 'resign Edmunds no matter what' camp, but i've started to wonder what else we could do with the money.  Edmunds is obviously a great talent, but I just don't think he's an impact player.  Like with Star, I'm sick of hearing about all the things Edmunds does that don't show up on a stat sheet; that just doesn't pass the eye test when watching him play

[Billl]

Seems like letting him walk and get overpaid by someone else is a pretty easy decision.

[Riverboat Ritchie]

Likely have to let him walk but he is only 24.  When Nader if you could do something really long term with him. 

[Process]

A decent MLB: "I want top dollar"

 

Beane: "No"

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Of course trading up and taking Allen was the most impactful. 

But I'd argue the decision on Edmunds will have repercussions for years. There are so many options. Sign him long term and spread out the cap hit to a player that at best has had an inconsistent impact since entering the NFL. Even spreading out the can hit, it will still commit massive resources to the two linebackers. Tag and force him to play under the tag. Tag and trade. Simply let him walk. 

This next decision may ultimately make or break Beane's career. 

The window to tag a player has already opened and a decision must be made by March 7th. 

Should be an interesting week ahead. 

 

It's a tough call for sure.

 

I think the options are:

 

Keep Edmunds and keep everything the same defensively..........continue to mostly dominate average to bad teams on that side of the ball......but accept that you will be carved up by Mahomes/Burrow/Trevor types and have to outscore them.

 

Or change your style of defense to some extent...............maybe funnel the run inside more and have a more instinctive and better run defender in the middle.   This possibly improves the pass rush by giving them wider splits.   

 

Personally,  I think it's time for a change.   But what really makes it tantalizing to keep Edmunds is that you could give him a LONG contract at his age and work with small cap hits for the next few seasons and not have to deal with dead money from the deal until the late 2020's possibly.

[H2o]

Maybe, maybe not. I think it's hard to justify him making much more than Milano when Milano is the better overall LB of the two. I understand the market and the "importance of the position", but if you watch the tape it does tell the story. Just like with other guys in previous years, I think Beane and company have already settled on a number. If the player wants to test the waters elsewhere? Fine. The offer will be on the table until they sign with another team or circle back. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 minutes ago, H2o said:

Maybe, maybe not. I think it's hard to justify him making much more than Milano when Milano is the better overall LB of the two. I understand the market and the "importance of the position", but if you watch the tape it does tell the story. Just like with other guys in previous years, I think Beane and company have already settled on a number. If the player wants to test the waters elsewhere? Fine. The offer will be on the table until they sign with another team or circle back. 

I think this is accurate way to describe how Beane has worked in the past. Worked with Milano and Williams I think. 

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

Agreed.  I was firmly in the 'resign Edmunds no matter what' camp, but i've started to wonder what else we could do with the money.  Edmunds is obviously a great talent, but I just don't think he's an impact player.  Like with Star, I'm sick of hearing about all the things Edmunds does that don't show up on a stat sheet; that just doesn't pass the eye test when watching him play

 

This must be the most difficult decision Beane has faced, because similar but opposite of you, I have been staunchly against re-signing him the last 4 years, but have changed my tune after this season.

 

Edmunds play, and the fog of his responsibilities, makes it almost impossible for us to properly decide whether it is worth re-signing him or not. Couple that with the "what ifs" that pop up when discussing using that money on Offense instead. But there are no guarantees Beane will spend on Offense even if Edmunds walks. So...

 

I have no clue.

[stevestojan]

A guy asking for all pro money who isn’t an all pro? 
 

I hope Beane doesn’t spend more time than his morning coffee thinking about this one. 
 

I like Edmunds. Kinda. And maybe I’ll finally realize his greatness when he’s gone. 
 

but this one is strictly numbers. And pretty easy math for me. 

[HappyDays]

I think it was already decided last year. Beane extends his guys a year early. LB is not a premium position and Edmunds even at his best does not make game changing plays. When you pay your QB, letting players like that go is a pretty easy decision.

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, H2o said:

Maybe, maybe not. I think it's hard to justify him making much more than Milano when Milano is the better overall LB of the two. I understand the market and the "importance of the position", but if you watch the tape it does tell the story. Just like with other guys in previous years, I think Beane and company have already settled on a number. If the player wants to test the waters elsewhere? Fine. The offer will be on the table until they sign with another team or circle back. 

 

I understand fans wanting to have this line of thinking, but there is absolutely no solid, valid logic behind it.

 

It doesnt matter what we are paying Milano when it comes to Edmunds contract. Just like when Milano was re-signing people werent saying "but we only pay Lorenzo Alexander $X amount".

 

Milano's deal was in a much different time, for a different position, and had a player who was willing to take well below market in order to not complicate his life. It's an anomaly situation. Not a precedent.

[BarleyNY]

19 minutes ago, Billl said:

Seems like letting him walk and get overpaid by someone else is a pretty easy decision.

Agreed. I expect this to be the way it plays out. The decision gets a lot more difficult if he doesn’t get top of the market money. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I think it was already decided last year. Beane extends his guys a year early. LB is not a premium position and Edmunds even at his best does not make game changing plays. When you pay your QB, letting players like that go is a pretty easy decision.

 

I'm not so sure it is that simple. I agree Beane prefers to extend early. And I believe Beane made him a lower offer based on his level of play up to last season. But I think in this specific case, they gave him that year on the Option to prove his development. And doggone it, he did. So now it gets even tougher. We'll see.

[dorquemada]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Edmunds play, and the fog of his responsibilities, makes it almost impossible for us to properly decide whether it is worth re-signing him or not. Couple that with the "what ifs" that pop up when discussing using that money on Offense instead. But there are no guarantees Beane will spend on Offense even if Edmunds walks. So...

 

I have no clue.

 

That's the issue.  Does he go find an undersized/high motor IDL with that money instead?  of course he does

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, dorquemada said:

 

That's the issue.  Does he go find an undersized/high motor IDL with that money instead?  of course he does

 

Ha! Well, if you can guarantee me the choice is between Edmunds or Ben Powers, that makes it easier.

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I understand fans wanting to have this line of thinking, but there is absolutely no solid, valid logic behind it.

 

It doesnt matter what we are paying Milano when it comes to Edmunds contract. Just like when Milano was re-signing people werent saying "but we only pay Lorenzo Alexander $X amount".

 

Milano's deal was in a much different time, for a different position, and had a player who was willing to take well below market in order to not complicate his life. It's an anomaly situation. Not a precedent.

I understand this as well, which is why I mentioned the market and the position difference in all of it. I still think Milano is the better LB of the two though. I think Beane and Co. has a number already on the table, and that is why Edmunds is saying he's going to test the market. I'd rather spend that $$$ elsewhere along the OL, draft a replacement, and tender Dodson. Let a rookie, Dodson, and Spector battle it out in TC/Preseason. 

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Billl said:

Seems like letting him walk and get overpaid by someone else is a pretty easy decision.

 

For KC.......with a SB win in hand(and now 2)........yeah it would be pretty easy.

 

It's a little more complicated for the Bills........when you haven't won one there is a tendency to try to force your way to the top with top end talent.

 

On paper.......the Bills probably should have won or at least been in the last 2 SB's..........top offenses and defenses.........biggest and second biggest point differentials in the league........so there is maybe a bit of reluctance to take a step back talent-wise.

 

But I think you gotta' see thru that as an organization and be willing to change things even if you tend to think they only didn't work because of unfortunate circumstances or the like.

[Nephilim17]

I keep hearing about how Edmunds takes away the middle of the field in the opponent's passing game. But we keep getting killed in the playoffs and against good QBs in the passing game.

So...  is it really true? Or are the teams doing this do us relying just on perimeter throws for such great success?

[947]

I think it seems extremely stressful to us fans because we all know Beane should let him walk, but we also know darn well that McDermott might be able to convince Beane to pay him, and we'll be screwed on Offense. It really shouldn't be a difficult decision, but given our team's history, they're likely to make it one.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Just plain tired of hearing he’s the issue. Let him walk and plug in some jag so we can find out once and for all.

 

or better yet plug-in some impact value FA or Rook player that does all the miraculous thinks people think 49 should be doing. 

[TheFunPolice]

This team is built backwards. All of the investment in $$ and draft capital is on defense, except the QB. 

 

Great defenses are going to get scored on by good offenses with the rules the way they are now. Look at the Eagles star studded defense in the Super Bowl. 

 

Your defense needs to limit the other team just enough for the offense to outscore them. Paying $100M+ to a pretty good LB makes zero sense in today's game. 

[BuffaloRebound]

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This must be the most difficult decision Beane has faced, because similar but opposite of you, I have been staunchly against re-signing him the last 4 years, but have changed my tune after this season.

 

Edmunds play, and the fog of his responsibilities, makes it almost impossible for us to properly decide whether it is worth re-signing him or not. Couple that with the "what ifs" that pop up when discussing using that money on Offense instead. But there are no guarantees Beane will spend on Offense even if Edmunds walks. So...

 

I have no clue.

I’m in the same place.  People also conveniently gloss over that you’re most likely over-paying a free agent from another team and why is that team letting that guy go?  

[PrimeTime101]

So... Last year at this time... I suggested that maybe we should contract him then because if he has a really really solid year, then his price tag is going to be so high that one solid year wont justify the worth.

 

If we would of contracted him last year and extend his contract instead of the 1 year option? we would of saved millions... Everyone slammed me for it... Now we stuck and likely have to let him go and the SAME PEOPLE on these boards are going "on crap"

 

This team made a huge mistake. just my opinion and I am sticking with it. Just because you can cheap out on a 5th year option, does not make it the "right" option.

[Big Turk]

Not for the amount of money Edmunds is going to get. Probably the easiest.

[John from Riverside]

Will be OK if he leaves as long as we have a well thought out back up plan

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Seems like letting him walk and get overpaid by someone else is a pretty easy decision.

Actually letting Tremaine walk and saving 18+ might be the easiest decision of Beanes career.  Just sign Vander Esch to a 2/14 deal and start focusing on the offense. 

[Billl]

42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

For KC.......with a SB win in hand(and now 2)........yeah it would be pretty easy.

 

It's a little more complicated for the Bills........when you haven't won one there is a tendency to try to force your way to the top with top end talent.

 

On paper.......the Bills probably should have won or at least been in the last 2 SB's..........top offenses and defenses.........biggest and second biggest point differentials in the league........so there is maybe a bit of reluctance to take a step back talent-wise.

 

But I think you gotta' see thru that as an organization and be willing to change things even if you tend to think they only didn't work because of unfortunate circumstances or the like.

Good point.  I would submit that the needle a team like Buffalo has to thread is how to reinvent itself without a complete tear-down. You simply can’t improve relative to the rest of the league by running it back with the same core of players when they’re just a year older and exponentially more expensive.

 

So the question becomes where do you make changes?  You’re not changing QBs, obviously.  Literally everyone else should be on the table.  If the Chiefs can trade Tyreek (and I’ll grant you that it’s a move that was only made possible due to the fact that they had already banked a Super Bowl), then the Bills can walk on Edmunds.  If you’re wanting to get creative, I’d be shopping Milano as well. He’s a valuable player with a favorable contract, but he plays a position that can be schemed around.

 

IMO, paying Edmunds a big contract is waving the white flag on 2024 and beyond.  In 2023, Buffalo should be starting Terrell Bernard along with Cook, Basham, Epenesa, and Elam.  If you can’t win with those guys, then Beane should be fired.  2022 was the all-in year.  Going back to the ATM to run it back in 2023 is just throwing good money after bad.  If shedding payroll at MLB frees up capital to grab another weapon for Josh, then that’s what you do.  If it winds up sinking the defense, then you weren’t winning anything anyway.

[Dopey]

41 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I keep hearing about how Edmunds takes away the middle of the field in the opponent's passing game. But we keep getting killed in the playoffs and against good QBs in the passing game.

So...  is it really true? Or are the teams doing this do us relying just on perimeter throws for such great success?

In the middle of the field? Yes, I'm dopey, but what does this mean? Kelce's game winning TD in last year's playoff game was on Milano and not over the middle. 

[colin]

losing our brand new 33 year old free agent pass rusher caused our d a tremendous drop off.  

 

Losing our all pro high doller CB tre white the prior season didn't seem to impact us at all (we had similar rankings, and gave up the same kind of bad plays in the playoffs with and without him) and that was with levi wallace being our best outside CB!

 

the strength of the mcd d is that it puts the back 7 at an advantage so you can take away the big play.  the weakness is it's a lot of checks and just in time adjustments which create huge easy to exploit holes if they aren't run correctly.  the salve for this in teh passing game is a pass rush.

 

anyhow, i say if we keep our coaches, we ride their strength, which is a 1 of 11 d which should not require top flight talent up and down the pitch, and use those savings to protect our all world qb.

[DallasBillsFan1]

Edmunds will end up signing with Texans.

[Mr. WEO]

letting go of Peterman seemed to be a lot harder for Beane...

[34-78-83]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's a tough call for sure.

 

I think the options are:

 

Keep Edmunds and keep everything the same defensively..........continue to mostly dominate average to bad teams on that side of the ball......but accept that you will be carved up by Mahomes/Burrow/Trevor types and have to outscore them.

 

 

I think the Eagles D and 49ers D have proven to have the same exact concerns stopping Mahomes and KC this year for example. Are you saying there is some defensive approach or alternative that ANY team can take in facing those elite offenses? I don't think it has anything to do with Edmunds when it comes to facing those type of offenses. All the D schemes and approaches out there seem to get beat just as easily.

 

With that said I think it comes down to if Edmunds will accept a Mosley-esque type contract or a long extended contract as you mentioned or not. The Roquan contract would obviously be too much for the production.

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

I think the Eagles D and 49ers D have proven to have the same exact concerns stopping Mahomes and KC this year for example. Are you saying there is some defensive approach or alternative that ANY team can take in facing those elite offenses?

It sounds like he’s suggesting that allowing 30 points to a team like the Chiefs is just the price of admission, so you may as well focus on building a team that can score 30+ and work backwards from there.

 

Here’s what the Chiefs have scored in the postseason with Mahomes.

9

22 (Mahomes left due to an injury against the Browns)

23 (Mahomes was severely limited against the Bengals)

24

27 (Mahomes went out with an injury against the Jaguars)

31

31

31

35

38

42

42

51

Edited February 27, 2023 by Billl

[Gregthekeg]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's a tough call for sure.

 

I think the options are:

 

Keep Edmunds and keep everything the same defensively..........continue to mostly dominate average to bad teams on that side of the ball......but accept that you will be carved up by Mahomes/Burrow/Trevor types and have to outscore them.

 

Or change your style of defense to some extent...............maybe funnel the run inside more and have a more instinctive and better run defender in the middle.   This possibly improves the pass rush by giving them wider splits.   

 

Personally,  I think it's time for a change.   But what really makes it tantalizing to keep Edmunds is that you could give him a LONG contract at his age and work with small cap hits for the next few seasons and not have to deal with dead money from the deal until the late 2020's possibly.

Ahh yeah, why dont they just have the Defense that stops the top 5 QBs, why didnt they think of that.  There is a reason that only the top 3 qbs beat the D, its because they are the best! If it was easy to stop them dont you think they would already be doing it? They have had a top 5 def every year.  If they get rid of him and the D is worse, that puts even more stress on the Offense to score points, even against a "lousy" team. 

 

There is a stat out there that when he is in they have top 3 pass D and when he isnt they were 28th.... now imagine that all year.  Imagine getting into a shooting match with a team like Houston because our D is wretched in pass D, not a world I want to live in. 

 

[T master]

One would think that if you spent a first round pick on a player & have now invested 5 yrs in his progress in becoming a pro bowl LB then yes i'm sure this is a hard decision for Beane but the biggest determination for him staying is how much cap room the magician can come up with .

 

I feel that there are alternatives though this years draft has some other LB's that are about the same build wise & can cover as good as Edmonds i would like to see him stay but the cap is the one that makes this decision & we know Edmunds will try to be 1 of if not the highest paid LB in the league .

 

It's all about the money !! Loyalty to a team is a thing of the past the last player that we have watched that stayed i believe in part because of his loyalty was Kyle Williams the only other one that we may see stay his entire career is Josh but i wouldn't bet on that either because at the end of a QB"s career they seem to move around like Brady, Rogers, & others ...

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Gregthekeg said:

Ahh yeah, why dont they just have the Defense that stops the top 5 QBs, why didnt they think of that.  There is a reason that only the top 3 qbs beat the D, its because they are the best! If it was easy to stop them dont you think they would already be doing it? They have had a top 5 def every year.  If they get rid of him and the D is worse, that puts even more stress on the Offense to score points, even against a "lousy" team. 

 

There is a stat out there that when he is in they have top 3 pass D and when he isnt they were 28th.... now imagine that all year.  Imagine getting into a shooting match with a team like Houston because our D is wretched in pass D, not a world I want to live in. 

 

 

 

Obviously the alternative is risk a step back in the defensive rankings.........I'm not suggesting plugging in a fringe roster option like Dodson or a waiver wire pickup like Klein and finishing 28th in pass D or whatever the implication is...........but how much more stress than 36 points and 500 yards of offense allowed do you think can be put on the defense?    That's the average allowed the last 3 playoff losses.   

 

Edmunds gets exceptionally worse against the best QB's.    By contrast,  a less talented but more instinctive player like Logan Wilson doesn't have the same drop-off because those instincts allow him to adapt and compete.    I thought Edmunds was actually more impactful against Cinci than in prior playoff losses.........but his improvement has been so small in that regard that you have to wonder if there is enough more coming soon enough to justify the investment.    His age and the potential for low cap hits in the next few years make it a tough call for Beane.       

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I keep hearing about how Edmunds takes away the middle of the field in the opponent's passing game. But we keep getting killed in the playoffs and against good QBs in the passing game.

So...  is it really true? Or are the teams doing this do us relying just on perimeter throws for such great success?

Both are true. He probably does influence some throws but high end QBs and play callers do just fine against this defense. No doubt there are times when the D has played well but in the playoffs they collapse.

I wish we knew who really has final say Beane or McDermott. 

 

[Virgil]

Drafting the right QB was the most difficult decision and would have cost him his job is he walked away from that draft with anyone not named Josh Allen (maybe Lamar)

[Nephilim17]

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Both are true. He probably does influence some throws but high end QBs and play callers do just fine against this defense. No doubt there are times when the D has played well but in the playoffs they collapse.

I wish we knew who really has final say Beane or McDermott. 

 

This might sound like an a*****e thing to say, but if Edmunds' ability and presence can't really stop high-end QBs, why bother paying him what may be $15 to $18 million a year?

Not a rhetorical question. What value do we get if we can't stop the Burrow's and Mahomes of the league? 

My suggestion is pay a guy a fraction of that, "give up" the middle of the field more (it's not really making a difference in big games) and use the money on the O-line.