The Ringer: Josh Allen Needs to Chill

[YoloinOhio]

 

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We also cannot attribute the increase in downfield shots to Dorsey’s offense. By route density, the Bills are sending their receivers to the same general areas of the field with the same frequency. Compare these heat maps of routes run by the Bills offense over the last three seasons: Dorsey is getting a few more post routes dialed up to the deep middle of the field, but other than that, the Dorsey and Daboll offenses are pretty similar.

 

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The onus for this downfield focus for the Bills offense, then, doesn’t fall on Dorsey: it falls on Allen. When you rip through the film of these last few months of Allen’s game, you see a player desperately hunting the deep shot, even when it is not ideal to do so. At no point has this been more apparent than last week’s Bills-Dolphins game, in which Allen averaged a depth of target north of 16 yards—the single highest mark of any game he’s played in the last three years. Again, the Bills are fine—they scored 34 points!—but they were almost very much not fine, and Allen’s reckless play is a big part of the reason why.

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

Josh showed in the LA game he can find that sweet spot between gunslinger and taking what’s available; that’s the Josh who holds up the Lombardi next month. 

[ALLinALLEN]

I'll pass on his assessment 

[The Frankish Reich]

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

[RoyBatty is alive]

He does have a point BUT Miami was the big underdog, they were daring J Allen to throw the deep ball, Allen did what he was trained to do, go to the WRs when they are one on one and Miami is in Cover zero.

Edited January 20, 2023 by RoyBatty is alive

[Gugny]

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

I'll read it soon, but again Shakir catches a perfect pass and Brown doesn't break off route (and probably just an incompletion) what happened afterwards doesn't happen and they are lauding perfect deep throws by Allen.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

I don't think we should cite Benjamin Solak here without posting a few of his receipts.

 

Prior to the draft, Solak had this to say about Josh Allen:

 

Quote

 

Josh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement.

On top of his poor decision making as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy.

 

He didn't have Allen in his top-100 pre draft

 

Basically, kudos to this mid-20s journalist for maneuvering his opinions from NDT Scouting into larger markets like "The Ringer" and making a good living at writing about football, but let's Contextualize his Writing with his demonstrated previous football acumen: sporadic accuracy.

 

-------------------------------------

As far as the offense:

 

People who spend far more time breaking down Bills film (Cover1) have said there is really only about 20-30% carryover between Daboll's offense and Dorsey's.

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Beck Water

[Bruffalo]

These kinds of articles are lay ups.  Easy, boring, kind of saying the obvious.  

Allen is a gunslinger. It's what makes Bills games the best, most watchable football in the NFL.  It's a rollercoaster, take your blood pressure meds and enjoy the ride.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

yep that was definitely my dilemma in every pick up game I played. Swoosh this three in this guys face or dunk on this fools head?

[Awwufelloff]

He's been panicking in the pocket. A lot of that has to do with how little time the offensive line gives him. How is Feliciano doing in NY? Surely he's an upgrade over some of the guys we have? 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

 

I don't know what "to blame" means.  What we don't know (and Solak doesn't know) is how the reads in the play are.  Dorsey has said over and over again that his mindset is to be aggressive: "Play smart not conservative"

 

The easy yards are indeed there, but Josh has instructions to read the play (probably from deep to shallow) and when to take the shot.

[Logic]

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

[Motorin']

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I have a thread on this coming. I think Josh may have inadvertently let out why he plays more chaotically during 1pm games. 

 

On this week's Kyle Brandt cast, they got into the weeds on Josh's pre-game throwing up habit. To the point where Kyle asked him what his puke looked like. And Josh said he doesn't eat before 1pm games. 

 

Josh said "hungry warriors fight harder." I can't help but wonder if his mental processing is sharper in late games bc he's not playing on an empty stomach? 

 

Dude better eat before the 3pm game this weekend dammit!  

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just like some posters here; those who hang on to their initial biases and evaluations of Josh Allen will take a game like last week to justify their initial narrative, despite him still throwing for 352 yds, three TDs and winning the game.  Not to mention the dropped TD pass by Knox or  bomb by Shakir.  

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Josh showed in the LA game he can find that sweet spot between gunslinger and taking what’s available; that’s the Josh who holds up the Lombardi next month. 

Right!

 

This has been a big part of the reason for my criticism. Sort of shaken baby syndrome. Like “Dude, you are certainly capable. Just play within yourself”

[Logic]

 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I have a thread on this coming. I think Josh may have inadvertently let out why he plays more chaotically during 1pm games. 

 

On this week's Kyle Brandt cast, they got into the weeds on Josh's pre-game throwing up habit. To the point where Kyle asked him what his puke looked like. And Josh said he doesn't eat before 1pm games. 

 

Josh said "hungry warriors fight harder." I can't help but wonder if his mental processing is sharper in late games bc he's not playing on an empty stomach? 

 

Dude better eat before the 3pm game this weekend dammit!  

 

I think you'd have to start by demonstrating that there is, indeed, some kind of quantifyable difference in how Josh plays at 1 pm vs later.

[Logic]

 

 

[US Egg]

QB play is paramount to its team success 

 Ours is awesome.

[Punch]

2 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

QB play is paramount to its team success 

 Ours is awesome.

Goo goo g'joob!

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

22 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

i have this problem constantly… take the sure three or the dunk… its no way to live 

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

Good article. The heat maps are awesome. But, it doesn’t take fancy graphics to know that Sugar High Josh is less than the ideal Josh. 
 

I love his killer instinct, and his desire to force the ball to his guys to make plays. I don’t want that to change. I’ll ride or die with 17 until the end. 

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

I’ll ride or die with 17 until the end. 

 

regardless of overall opinion, we all agree with this

[Wraith]

31 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

He does have a point BUT Miami was the big underdog, they were daring J Allen to throw he deep ball, Allen did what he was trained to do, go to the WRs when they are one on one and Miami is in Cover zero.

Yup. This is analysis is deeply flawed:

• It tries to make it seem like this is multi-game or even season-long trend, when their own graphs  shows it was really just one game (Miami) influencing both the stats and obviously, by extension, the perception of the media. 

 

• The analysis fails to acknowledge that while the Bills route density hasn't changed much in Dorsey's offense, in the one game affecting the analysis, the defense was vastly different, bucking the trend of consistent two-high safeties in favor of single high or no safeties. Remember last year when two-high was supposedly the answer to Josh Allen?

 

• It makes an assumption that deep throws are inherently more risky and cherry picks one play to try to demonstrate that the interception to John Brown. The deeper throws are obviously harder to complete but an incomplete pass is hardly the worst thing that can happen. Someone show me some data that says deeper throws result in more turnovers. Seems counter intuitive to me. At most, three of Allen's interceptions this year came on deep throws (depending on how they are defined). 
  • Pittsburgh (Levi Wallace covering Gabe Davis 1-on-1 in the end zone)
  • Minnesota (Peterson interception in OT)
  • Chicago (1st interception, safety lined up on line of scrimmage then dropped back to create a double team against McKenzie)

 

• So many of Allen's interceptions this year were on short little throws directly to defenders he inexplicably didn't see in the middle of the season. Removes those from the numbers and nobody is talking about his turnover count or trying to connect them to the deep shots.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Wraith

[TheBrownBear]

25 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

people don’t realize how tempting it is. It reminds me of playing basketball, and you know you are a great 3-point shooter and have a wide open 3. It’s tough not to take that, even though you are also fast and strong and probably drive to the bucket for a dunk too.

Lebron Miyagi - i hope I'm never stuck guarding you in my rec league.

[extrahammer]

My thought is a lot of these sports media analysts who have never credited Josh’s development are often times clinging emotionally to a last stand. If we win on Sunday it’ll be interesting to see what new excuses they develop even though Burrow has never thrown for more than 2 TDs in games against KC and Josh has done it in every game against KC. 

[The Frankish Reich]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

I doubt you read it. The article is almost completely complimentary of Josh, starting with a bunch of stats that suggest the Bills offense and Josh are really better than ever. And then it points out (and documents) the obvious: it could be better still if he dialed back the aggressiveness just a little bit, particularly when the situation calls for it. Only a died in the wool 100% fanboy would see it otherwise.

3 minutes ago, Wraith said:

At most, three of Allen's interceptions this year came on deep throws (depending on how they are defined). 

It's not just about the interceptions. It's also about going for the home run ball when easy medium yardage gainers are there for the taking.

[Wraith]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

It's not just about the interceptions. It's also about going for the home run ball when easy medium yardage gainers are there for the taking.

The Bills offense can move the ball down the field. That is not the problem. The problem is the occasional burst of turnovers. The article tries to connect that to the deep throws. It is not true.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

5 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Lebron Miyagi - i hope I'm never stuck guarding you in my rec league.

haha. Off the subject, but I am 45, and have become a really good rec league player. It took me my whole life to figure out the secret of basketball— which is to not try dumb stuff and pick your spots and take the shots you can make.  

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Wraith said:

The problem is the occasional burst of turnovers. The article tries to connect that to the deep throws. It is not true.

That's not how I read it. One of the plays he focuses on resulted in an incomplete pass. The point is that Josh was so focused on trying complete the long ball to Gabe that he didn't take the relatively easy 20 yard + gain to Diggs.

[TheBrownBear]

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

haha. Off the subject, but I am 45, and have become a really good rec league player. It took me my whole life to figure out the secret of basketball— which is to not try dumb stuff and pick your spots and take the shots you can make.  

Haha.  I'm 44 and still do the dumb stuff.  Maybe my game will mature by 45.  😜

 

I'm 5'8", so I have to play to my strengths and hunt the 3 ball.  No dunking for me unless it's against my kids on the Fisher Price hoop.

 

A better analogy for me is golf.  I hit the ball pretty long, so I'm often forced to decide between taking the chance of driving the green on a short par 4 or taking the "layup" of an iron, wedge and an almost guaranteed par. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by TheBrownBear

[PaattMaann]

41 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Really good analysis. And yes, as the article shows, Allen is to blame, not Dorsey. The easy yards are there, but Josh has been a little too eager to take the home run swing (and miss).

 

except for when he takes the home run swings and hits

 

as pointed out by Greg Tompsett at Cover 1...."which 50 yard pass completion do you want to substitute for the 10 yard completion?"

 

Ill ride or die with him taking shots. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, PaattMaann said:

 

except for when he takes the home run swings and hits

 

as pointed out by Greg Tompsett at Cover 1...."which 50 yard pass completion do you want to substitute for the 10 yard completion?"

 

Ill ride or die with him taking shots. 

Of course. But ... game situation. Quality of the opponent's offense.

The exact same criticisms were made of Mahomes in the first half of 2021, and he seems to have made minor adjustments (much like The Ringer article suggests for Josh) that have made them better. It's not personal! They are not questioning Josh's intelligence or ability. Just stating the obvious, and backing it up with some examples and stats.

[LEBills]

25 minutes ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Solak and Steven Ruiz and the rest of the Analytics Kids are just SO excited that Josh Allen has been turning the ball over and playing more erratically lately. SO excited. They had to sit quietly in a corner while Josh Allen became an elite, no-questions-asked top five quarterback in the league. Now that he has started turning the ball over a bit more and his completion percentage has dropped a bit? Oh man. They probably couldn't run to their keyboards fast enough to start writing these articles.

Ruiz is my least favorite guy at the Ringer. He thinks Justin Herbert is the best QB to have ever been born and has said multiple times Herbert is better than Allen already. If he ever beats Mahomes he will move him up to #1 on his list. I generally try to avoid anything he writes because while I think he watches a lot of football, I don’t think he understands that the QB position is more than making the “correct” read every play.

 

Sometimes Ruiz sneaks into a Ringer clip without me realizing and that’s where I get to hear that Herbert is already the second best QB in the world. Bro can’t hold onto a 27 point lead but he made the correct check down based on coverage so he is sooooo great. 
 

The Bills are going to win a Super Bowl because of Josh Allen, not in spite of him. This hand wringing over turnovers by the media and a lot of our fans needs to relax.

 

 

[Malazan]

If the bad turnovers stop.. there wouldn't be many issues. That's the aspect that has to change. You can't have mind bogglingly bad turnovers in the playoffs and expect to win. That game would have been a blowout if just 1-2 of turnovers were just punts/field goals instead. 

 

If you're going to throw the Brown ints as a trade off for the deep shots then you can't have the in-pocket fumbles. 

 

However, I do like Allen being called out nationally because it seems like whenever he's getting called out in the national media he goes out and plays his best.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Malazan

[Pabstblueribbon]

1 minute ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Ill ride or die with him taking shots. 

 

Josh has zero chill, and a howitzer for a right arm. I'm with you, Let the big dog eat.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

which 50 yard pass completion do you want to substitute for the 10 yard completion

A particularly stupid way to put it. Which 20% chance at a 50 yard completion will you substitute for a 90% chance for a 10 yard completion" is what they're saying.

Expected yards gained may still favor the former by a tick, but the latter is better for sustaining a drive and depriving the opponent of their own chance to score.