Will DeAndre Hopkins be available this offseason?

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on alot of this, and mainly he needs to get us that SB! 

 

But we are very close and key defensive injuries have happened last 2 years.  Not an excuse, just fact.  Tre in 2021, Hyde/Von in 2022.

 

We need a bit of luck to stay healthy, which is what every SB winner basically needs.

 

Beane has done too much, in short order, and future looks too bright (mainly Josh, but others), to give any time frame on Beane as of now

That's just pure speculation.  And suits your own agenda to go for it now. 

Naturally, it's speculation. I don't know the future, neither do you. One speculates. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Sorry my point was not clear.  It's all about the future cap implications to me. 

 

People can have different opinions, or even strategies, with hoe the future cap space should be managed.  

 

I'd consider myself 'moderate', not conservative, but realizing we already kicked the can on many high-$ contracts.  Voided years on Hyde, Dion, Von, and restructures on top of that.  I realize other teams are more aggressive, ie: Miami, possibly Jets with a Rodgers contract.  But to me, we've already leveraged enough future cap

 

I tend to agree with you.  The thing is, Beane could do this DHop deal and make the numbers work for this year.

What fans have to realize is he will have to roll out of another player the following year when DHop's money comes due.

There are no "magic bullets" in this cap stuff.

 

KC keeps getting brought up in these talks, but the facts are they have 6 players above $10M per year contracts.

They have been at that number (7 last season) for a number of years.  That's how THEY play the game.

 

Bills have 9 over $10M and fans want to add another.  That is not going to last much longer.

 

I would be excited if DHop is on the team, but I also see the extreme need to get Knox off the line and into the passing game.

He is going to cost $14.4M next season.  To get him off the line you need to invest in the line.  Lots of ways to skin these cats!

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Naturally, it's speculation. I don't know the future, neither do you. One speculates. 

You talked in certainties, specifically about team dissension (in worse case).

 

You are making up speculation to fit your agenda.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

But to me, we've already leveraged enough future cap

 

Have we? According to Over the Cap the expected salary cap in 2024 is $256 million. We currently have $252.5 million in cap hits that year. That's without accounting for any potential restructures and cuts. Just as one example I quickly explored, we could cut Morse and Poyer next offseason to save $14 million against the cap in 2024. I don't know, I don't see even a hint of cap trouble and that's before diving into every possible restructure and other possible cuts. Partly because we haven't drafted that well we don't have any looming major extensions. Maybe Rousseau in 2025 if he continues on his current trajectory but that's it.

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Have we? According to Over the Cap the expected salary cap in 2024 is $256 million. We currently have $252.5 million in cap hits that year. That's without accounting for any potential restructures and cuts. Just as one example I quickly explored, we could cut Morse and Poyer next offseason to save $14 million against the cap in 2024. I don't know, I don't see even a hint of cap trouble and that's before diving into every possible restructure and other possible cuts. Partly because we haven't drafted that well we don't have any looming major extensions. Maybe Rousseau in 2025 if he continues on his current trajectory but that's it.

Gabe or Ed?

 

That's probably another topic altogether.  

 

I see your point, and you seem to understand mine.  All good, Go Bills!

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

You talked in certainties, specifically about team dissension (in worse case).

 

You are making up speculation to fit your agenda.

Agenda is a word with negative connotations -- it subtly implies an ideological distortion or putting one's thumb on the scales.

"Falling short anywhere similar to the last two years is going to bring a lot of dissension. I don't think the long game is psychologically realistic." 

I stand by that. Built into the first bolded is a subjunctive -- "if this happens, then," so it is not a certitude. And I think taking into consideration the likely psychological results is germane to how one strategizes building the team. 

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Agenda is a word with negative connotations -- it subtly implies an ideological distortion or putting one's thumb on the scales.

"Falling short anywhere similar to the last two years is going to bring a lot of dissension. I don't think the long game is psychologically realistic." 

I stand by that. Built into the first bolded is a subjunctive -- "if this happens, then," so it is not a certitude. And I think taking into consideration the likely psychological results is germane to how one strategizes building the team. 

I don't agree that we build a team worried about Josh or Diggs being malcontents, if we don't win a SB in next 2 years.  Or team psychological impacts/dissension.

 

I've said enough on my opinion.  Looking forward to seeing what plays out and the draft.

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on alot of this, and mainly he needs to get us that SB! 

 

But we are very close and key defensive injuries have happened last 2 years.  Not an excuse, just fact.  Tre in 2021, Hyde/Von in 2022.

 

We need a bit of luck to stay healthy, which is what every SB winner basically needs.

 

Beane has done too much, in short order, and future looks too bright (mainly Josh, but others), to give any time frame on Beane as of now

That's just pure speculation.  And suits your own agenda to go for it now. 

I agree completely.  I thought we had the team this year but the injuries on D and having a rookie OC were too much to overcome.  Just wasn’t meant to be.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Have we? According to Over the Cap the expected salary cap in 2024 is $256 million. We currently have $252.5 million in cap hits that year. That's without accounting for any potential restructures and cuts. Just as one example I quickly explored, we could cut Morse and Poyer next offseason to save $14 million against the cap in 2024. I don't know, I don't see even a hint of cap trouble and that's before diving into every possible restructure and other possible cuts. Partly because we haven't drafted that well we don't have any looming major extensions. Maybe Rousseau in 2025 if he continues on his current trajectory but that's it.

 

Wow, Spotrac has this year's cap at $224.8M and already has next year's at $235M.  That $256M is a huge increase estimate.

Be that as it may, it only means that all the players will want more.  It's not about the number for one team, it's league wide.

Teams with more cap space will just start paying $30M for OTs and $60M+ for QBs.  Vet minimum's, rookie contracts and even PS

players get more every year too.

 

It's all relative.

[Malazan]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Cheap/talented labor is the missing piece, to long term success.  This has propelled Cincy, KC, and even the Jets in recent years.  Miami is living in a house they can't afford, we don't want to be in the same spot 2 years from now

 

Can you be propelled to last place in the division? 

[BillsFanForever19]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Have we? According to Over the Cap the expected salary cap in 2024 is $256 million. We currently have $252.5 million in cap hits that year. That's without accounting for any potential restructures and cuts. Just as one example I quickly explored, we could cut Morse and Poyer next offseason to save $14 million against the cap in 2024. I don't know, I don't see even a hint of cap trouble and that's before diving into every possible restructure and other possible cuts. Partly because we haven't drafted that well we don't have any looming major extensions. Maybe Rousseau in 2025 if he continues on his current trajectory but that's it.

 

There's a major disparity between OTC and Spotrac for next year's cap. I don't know if OTC is already factoring in what they expect the cap to be next season before it's been confirmed or what the deal is there - but Spotrac has us 17.5+ over already in '24

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2024/

Edited March 26, 2023 by BillsFanForever19

[Airseven]

34 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Some folks think that as long as we have Josh Allen, we're in the discussion for a SB means a conservative approach at player acquisition and building through the draft is the best counsel. I think if we don't win a SB in the next few years, Diggs won't be the only one who is irate with the regime. Josh Allen is in a legacy competition and Mahomes is up 2-0, Burrow has two number 1 receivers, and the conference seemingly keeps adding premium players. Win one now might very well open up more success later. Falling short anywhere similar to the last two years is going to bring a lot of dissension. I don't think the long game is psychologically realistic.

Allen is no more in a “legacy competition” than Herbert, Jackson, Lawrence, etc. How exactly has Allen ascended into a “legacy competition”? He hasn’t accomplished anything. Give me a break.

[Zerovoltz]

From the outside looking in....

 

Hopkins for the Bills....would be alot like when KC signed Sammy Watkins.  That contract was way too much, and it really wasn't needed.  

 

Could the Bills use some help in the WR room?  Sure...but I can't stress this enough....Josh Allen is the rare QB who elevates whoever is out there and spending a TON on Hopkins isn't going to improve Allen or your offenses stats in any way that would be remotely close to to being worth Hopkins contract and whatever draft picks you give up.  The Bills still sit at 3rd best SB win odds as we sit here after FA, and pre draft.  Thats Allen.  Hopkins would NOT move the needle.

 

If you are going to invest some draft capital at WR, you'd be much better off trying to haggle with the Broncos over Juedy.  2 years of cost control for a player who has suffered from CRAP coaching and CRAP QB play....metrics say his YAC and separation are GREAT.  That should be your target.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

From the outside looking in....

 

Hopkins for the Bills....would be alot like when KC signed Sammy Watkins.  That contract was way too much, and it really wasn't needed.  

 

Could the Bills use some help in the WR room?  Sure...but I can't stress this enough....Josh Allen is the rare QB who elevates whoever is out there and spending a TON on Hopkins isn't going to improve Allen or your offenses stats in any way that would be remotely close to to being worth Hopkins contract and whatever draft picks you give up.  The Bills still sit at 3rd best SB win odds as we sit here after FA, and pre draft.  Thats Allen.  Hopkins would NOT move the needle.

 

If you are going to invest some draft capital at WR, you'd be much better off trying to haggle with the Broncos over Juedy.  2 years of cost control for a player who has suffered from CRAP coaching and CRAP QB play....metrics say his YAC and separation are GREAT.  That should be your target.

Definitely worth consideration. I think it probably will cost 27 and there is likely more competition for him.

[stevestojan]

Has anyone answered the OP? 
 

I believe the answer is yes. 
 

seems like we could have saved 147 pages. 

[4merper4mer]

Any updates on this?

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Definitely worth consideration. I think it probably will cost 27 and there is likely more competition for him.

We’re not trading White.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Any updates on this?

We’re not trading White.

Pick #27 in the first round.

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Pick #27 in the first round.

That would be monumentally stupid too.

Edited March 26, 2023 by 4merper4mer

[JohnBonhamRocks]

8 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

Has anyone answered the OP? 
 

I believe the answer is yes. 
 

seems like we could have saved 147 pages. 

I did. Page 94. 🍻

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

How is trading for Hopkins going to stop us from building through the draft? We're talking about at most one 2nd round pick. The cap space issue I at least understand the concern there. As far as the trade compensation itself that's not even a consideration for me. Who really cares?

 

The benefit of trading a 2nd is that McBeane don't have a chance to over-draft a Cody Ford, Boogie Basham, or James Cook type player.  

 

8 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

From the outside looking in....

 

Hopkins for the Bills....would be alot like when KC signed Sammy Watkins.  That contract was way too much, and it really wasn't needed. 

 

KC signed Watkins to that 3 year 16 AAV contract with one 1,000 yard season on his then 4 year NFL career.

 

Hopkins is a 10 year vet with 6 1,000+ seasons with 5 1st or 2nd All-Pro selections. 

 

The only similarity is the cost of the contract, of which Watkins' was in UFA as opposed to what comes over in a prospective trade. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, 4merper4mer said:

That would be monumentally stupid too.

Apparently as of right now, that's the asking price and there are multiple teams interested. I didn't say you should pay that price, I said that was the likely ask.

[Zerovoltz]

Just now, BillsVet said:

 

The benefit of trading a 2nd is that McBeane don't have a chance to over-draft a Cody Ford, Boogie Basham, or James Cook type player.  

 

 

KC signed Watkins to that 3 year 16 AAV contract with one 1,000 yard season on his then 4 year NFL career.

 

Hopkins is a 10 year vet with 6 1,000+ seasons with 5 1st or 2nd All-Pro selections. 

 

The only similarity is the cost of the contract, of which Watkins' was in UFA as opposed to what comes over in a prospective trade. 

 

Watkins was injury prone....and remained so in KC.  He cost a ton and we didn't even have to give up draft capital for him.  Mahomes was every bit as good in games with him as without him.  That money would have been better spent elswhere.

 

Hopkins is a 10 year vet who has been a great player....but he's missed 11 games to injury the last 2 years and his YAC has been declining recently.  He's best knowns a a contested catch guy, but those numbers in sutations regarded as contested throws, have also been in decline.  I'm not saying Hopkins can't help.  He's still got gas in the tank....but for what his contract is, plus the draft picks.  NOT WORTH IT.  you aren't getting any kind of big ROI on this at all.  

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

If we don’t go for it now, signing von and all those restructures were a complete waste 

 

That's a great point. We didn't pull off all those restructures just so we could sign Connor McGovern and Deonte Harty.

[TOboy]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's a great point. We didn't pull off all those restructures just so we could sign Connor McGovern and Deonte Harty.

Technically we did it to get under the cap. 
 

But I agree, SOMETHING is cooking. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I believe that being consistently in the mix will maximize their chances of winning a Super Bowl as compared with “all in for a year, then rebuild”.

 

Here's the problem - every year you're competing with teams that went all in for that year. If we had drafted one or two more true difference makers we wouldn't be having this conversation. But since we didn't, we're in danger of falling further behind in the AFC arms race. I don't want to constantly be stuck in divisional round hell just to proudly say "my team was in the mix."

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by HappyDays

[Zerovoltz]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Here's the problem - every year you're competing with teams that went all in for that year. If we had drafted one or more true difference makers we wouldn't be having this conversation. But since we didn't, we're in danger of falling further behind in the AFC arms race. I don't want to constantly be stuck in divisional round hell just to proudly say "my team was in the mix."

I'm going to agree with the long term builder stance on this.  IF you believe...as I do...that ALLEN is the big driver behind the Bills being a Super Bowl contender, and not the roster around him...(It's ALLEN)  then you ought to be looking at every single season as a shot to win a trophy and not loading up for one year.  

 

I also agree though, that since the chips are already forward on Miller, etc....that since youa re committed to an all in type sceanrio, committ all the way.  I still think even given this, that Hopkins costs too much for what you get.  I'd wait until the Cards come off the high asking price at least.

[HappyDays]

52 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Wow, Spotrac has this year's cap at $224.8M and already has next year's at $235M.

 

That's a bad estimate on their part. The cap this year is $16.6 million more than it was in 2022. Next year's increase is going to be even greater because of all the network and streaming deals kicking in.

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's a bad estimate on their part. The cap this year is $16.6 million more than it was in 2022. Next year's increase is going to be even greater because of all the network and streaming deals kicking in.

 

Maybe Spotrac got the number wrong.. although he is right about player contracts going up as the cap goes up.. Elite WRs and OT getting $30M a year and that will go up as the cap goes up...

 

 

[HappyDays]

You know what picture you see when you look up tranquility in the dictionary?

 

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

That would be monumentally stupid too.

I wouldn’t do it straight up
If we got their second rounder?

[ngbills]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's the problem - every year you're competing with teams that went all in for that year. If we had drafted one or two more true difference makers we wouldn't be having this conversation. But since we didn't, we're in danger of falling further behind in the AFC arms race. I don't want to constantly be stuck in divisional round hell just to proudly say "my team was in the mix."

 

Yep. No way around spending $. You draft well you can spend less on free agents but will have to if you want to keep those guys. Draft poorly and you’re constantly paying to get talent. Key is getting the QB position right. Do that and you do whatever is needed to win because you have a shot. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's a bad estimate on their part. The cap this year is $16.6 million more than it was in 2022. Next year's increase is going to be even greater because of all the network and streaming deals kicking in.

 

Right now Spotrac is going with its $10M per year increase.  It will go up some.

 

My point is if it goes up for the Bills it goes up for their rivals.  KC has $74M in space next year according to OTC.

That's what I mean about "relative".

 

I've already said that if a deal is made for Hopkins, I will be excited.  It better work because it will cause pain somewhere else next season.

It's a big risk IMO and I don't know if I would pull the trigger if it was up to me.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I'm going to agree with the long term builder stance on this.  IF you believe...as I do...that ALLEN is the big driver behind the Bills being a Super Bowl contender, and not the roster around him...(It's ALLEN)  then you ought to be looking at every single season as a shot to win a trophy and not loading up for one year.  

 

I also agree though, that since the chips are already forward on Miller, etc....that since youa re committed to an all in type sceanrio, committ all the way.  I still think even given this, that Hopkins costs too much for what you get.  I'd wait until the Cards come off the high asking price at least.

Bill's also faced many situations ( prayers for Kim pegula and glad damar is doing ok). The heat game. Miller on it, Philips played with one good arm, lost Hyde damar, poyer played injuries. Every player on defense missed a game this year. Daquan Jones missed Bills last game. He is second best d-line behind Miller. 

 

Allen played hurt rest of year. Wr core not that great. There is so many more possibly missing.

[Reed83HOF]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This thread has gone on so long I've now been fooled twice by the same poster posting the same fake link taking me to the same picture.

 

I thought you would have been safe 😆 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I thought you would have been safe 😆 

Why do you insist on smuggling selfies into every thread?

[Success]

Oliver & a 4th. 

 

Done.

 

[nosejob]

IMO  it's probably a given that a new gm wants to show he has a set with this big a move.  If some one else doesn't pay through the nose by  draft day, maybe Beane can bend him over or do some kind of 3 way......TRADE.

Just now, nosejob said:

IMO  it's probably a given that a new gm wants to show he has a set with this big a move.  If some one else doesn't pay through the nose by  draft day, maybe Beane can bend him over or do some kind of 3 way......TRADE.

EDIT: 149 woohoo!!!

Just now, nosejob said:

IMO  it's probably a given that a new gm wants to show he has a set with this big a move.  If some one else doesn't pay through the nose by  draft day, maybe Beane can bend him over or do some kind of 3 way......TRADE.

EDIT: 149 woohoo!!!

woops

[BillsFanForever19]

1 minute ago, Success said:

Oliver & a 4th. 

 

Done

 

I mean, if that's what Arizona wanted I'd say do it. But Arizona wants to deal Hopkins to get rid of his salary. Not sure how interested they'd be to take on Oliver for one season at a 10 million cap hit if they're doing the deal to help their cap to begin with.

[nosejob]

See! This stupid thread gave me PTSD!  Possible Trade Scenario Disorder...Dementia...insert your own D word.🤪

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I mean, if that's what Arizona wanted I'd say do it. But Arizona wants to deal Hopkins to get rid of his salary. Not sure how interested they'd be to take on Oliver for one season at a 10 million cap hit if they're doing the deal to help their cap to begin with.

One season and 9 million less on the books.  Not a great offer but definitely has a nice appeal to it.