Is the QB position a roadblock to expansion?

[The Red King]

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

[Draconator]

Just now, The Red King said:

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

No

[The Red King]

1 minute ago, Draconator said:

No

 

Such a well thought out an nuanced reply.  While I can agree with some of your points, I have to disagree on others.  Still, I must commend you on breaking down each point and possible scenario to provide a truly verbose opinion on the matter!

[Big Turk]

No there would be key backups that would be in starter roles and while not great would be better than most teams current backups.

[nuiwek]

6 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Such a well thought out an nuanced reply.  While I can agree with some of your points, I have to disagree on others.  Still, I must commend you on breaking down each point and possible scenario to provide a truly verbose opinion on the matter!

This is possibly the best reply I've ever seen to answer like that. 

 

Unless the rest of the world starts playing as much football (not the one played with feet) as we do, I don't believe there would ever be enough talent to go around.

[Andy1]

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

[Don Otreply]

It’s not just that on any given year there are only 15 to 20 QBs that are worth there salary, then add to that the ongoing lack of quality O-linemen, across the league, etc etc, it is an issue for sure, but when push comes to shove the league only looks at the dollars, so at the first opportunity the league will expand.

[Mr. WEO]

20 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Such a well thought out an nuanced reply.  While I can agree with some of your points, I have to disagree on others.  Still, I must commend you on breaking down each point and possible scenario to provide a truly verbose opinion on the matter!

 

 

how bout "hell no"

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I couldn’t tell you how it figures into the NFL’s decision making but it’s a practical roadblock in my opinion.  Types of games like Titans/Texans and Browns/Saints today will become even more the norm.

[May Day 10]

There are more capable quarterbacks now than ever imo.  

 

As mentioned, I think you can really run into trouble on the o-lines.  You would be more likely to see some putrid o-lines in the league which would ruin that team(s).

[eSJayDee]

I don't think so.  You can win w/ a "good" QB & a strong roster.  There's over a dozen good QBs now.  The other thing about expanding the league, that'll lower the cap amount per team.  Teams w/ $50m QBs will be even further hampered w/ giving them a strong supporting cast.  Now, the dilution of the rest of the talent pool is another matter IMO, though I guess if everyone is pulled to a lower level, the competitiveness remains the same, but the question remains what impact that has on the overall product.

[djp14150]

That isn’t the reason.  There is enough talent out there to get starting QBs.

 

the issue with expansion is scheduling.

 

if you had 36 teams have 2 4 and 2 5 team divisions in each conference.  18 game schedule.

 

8 divisional games in 5 team division 

6 divisional in 4 team divisions

the two 5 th place division teams play 2 teams in each of the 4 team divisions for 4 games. H-H against each other and H-H the 2 other conference 5 th place teams. That gives them 8 divisional + 6 non division within conf+4/non conf games=18 g

the 5 team top 4 divisions pkay 8 div+ 4 against a div, 2 placement, 4 non conf. 
6 team div have 6 div+5th place game+ 4 against other division, + 2 placement+ 4 agsinst div in other conf + 1 additional non conf game=18

[Bferra13]

This is more of a February thread. As in we have nothing else better to talk about. The NFL is going to do whatever is in their best interest. And their best interest is $$$$ and lots of it. They don't care about anything else. If the end justifies the means, they don't care about qb talent. I'm sure they have plenty of focus groups looking at this.

[Buffalo Super Fan]

Quarterback isn’t a road block for NFL expansion the NFL owners greed is the real reason they don’t want to share the US television money. There is no US market that to them moves the needle as worth while. I don’t believe NFL is expanding again for a long time including Europe that is just total fantasy thinking on the NFL owners part. I don’t believe that happens for a long time if at all either because of cost and different culture sports wise what is and isn’t important. The NFL can’t shake down Europe like US cities for public taxpayers money that is what I am saying different sports culture wise what is important. The NFL can’t even get a NFL team to Canada Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver but some how we are to believe Europe is right around the corner. The NFL expanding to European cities are as likely as English Premier League expanding letting in all the US and Canadian MLS teams into EPL isn’t going to happen anytime soon if ever at all in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Buffalo Super Fan

[US Egg]

NFL doesn’t have a global like feeder system like MLB, NBA & NHL. 
 

That said, they aren’t overly concerned about QB quality play versus growing their product and profit.

 

Wonder if they view their future growth sort of being in a now faze?

[BobbyC81]

2 hours ago, Andy1 said:

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

A way around that would be that the NFL adds a rule that defenders can’t rush the QB until after 3 Mississippis.

[BobbyC81]

A few years back I thought about the future of NFL QBs with the likes of Brees, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Rivers, E. Manning and Brady getting up there in years.  Then came the drafts with top QB prospects in 2016 (Goff, Wentz), 2017 (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson) and 2018 (Josh Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson) and thr future looked promising.

 

Most of the older guys retired and , unfortunately, a majority of the young guys didn’t pan out.  Goff and Wentz were promising to start but both have regressed.  Trubisky is mediocre while only Josh & Jackson from the 2018 draft have met expectations.  Fortunately, the 2020 draft brought Joe Burrow, Herbert, Hurts and Tua, while the 2021 draft provided Lawrence.

 

That still leaves a lot of teams currently depending on journeymen, aging stars and hopeful unproven youngsters  Adding more teams needing to fill the position would be ridiculous.

Edited December 25, 2022 by BobbyC81

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, The Red King said:

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

 

Don't disagree with anything you say except it hasn't stopped them yet from expanding to the current 32.

[Orlando Tim]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

If QB play became a real problem then I think they would simply change the rules to help the lesser QBs, they could simply make a West Coast offense much more rules efficient than long bombs. On the list of what stops expansion I think this down the list a bit. 

[Bferra13]

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

NFL doesn’t have a global like feeder system like MLB, NBA & NHL. 
 

That said, they aren’t overly concerned about QB quality play versus growing their product and profit.

 

Wonder if they view their future growth sort of being in a now faze?

Do they really need growth though? They already make billions every year. The only thing that will really ever kill the NFL is if they get cancelled to two hand touch or something ridiculous like that because of head injuries. The day they put flags on the qb is prolly the day I quit watching.

[US Egg]

47 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

Do they really need growth though? They already make billions every year. The only thing that will really ever kill the NFL is if they get cancelled to two hand touch or something ridiculous like that because of head injuries. The day they put flags on the qb is prolly the day I quit watching.

If government wants to further their control of concussion for the betterment of those who willingly risk them to play sports, football particularly, would be in their cross hairs more so than other sports.

 

But the NFL becoming the NFFL? Never.

Edited December 25, 2022 by I am the egg man

[RiotAct]

4 hours ago, Andy1 said:

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

Plus, 32 teams in the league (8 divisions x 4 teams) is pretty much a perfect number.

[Arkady Renko]

25 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Plus, 32 teams in the league (8 divisions x 4 teams) is pretty much a perfect number.

I think the divisions are too small actually. Every other year we have some terrible division like the NFC South getting a terrible team a home playoff game. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

There are more capable quarterbacks now than ever imo.  

 

As mentioned, I think you can really run into trouble on the o-lines.  You would be more likely to see some putrid o-lines in the league which would ruin that team(s).

 

I agree olines would be a bigger issue than QBs. Not to say lack of true starting calibre QBs wouldn't be an issue...  it would. But offensive lines across the league are paper thin depth wise. It's an area Brandon Beane has always been good in tbf to him. He isn't great at building top end talent on the line but he is good at having lots of serviceable vets who can step in and play. Quess, GVR and Ike are all good backups. But if a starting line in the NFL had to rely on those 3 guys for the season? That would not be good.

[entropyrules]

11 hours ago, Andy1 said:

I’m not in favor of expansion. In addition to the lack of QBs, there is a lack of offensive line talent. 

although that may take care of the lack of franchise QBs by getting them killed some time during the season

[billsfan714]

I know Derek Carr is the poster child for just because you play QB does not mean you deserve 40 million a year.   See Kyler Murray also.   Anyone think Bronco fans have a lot of hope in the next 5 years when they will  be saddled with Russell Wilson's contract.

[Buffalo03]

You would need 8 new teams at once to make it work. That's too many at once. I don't see it

[Shaw66]

If the NFL can make more money expanding, they will expand.  It's all about the benjamins, as they say.

 

There aren't enough franchise QBs now, and the league is fine.   Having a few more teams without franchise QBs won't matter.  

[RyanC883]

the play will degrade, but it will make money so it will happen 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

You would need 8 new teams at once to make it work. That's too many at once. I don't see it

The schedule is irrelevant to the league.  They will create a schedule with 33 teams, 34, teams, however many teams they want.  MLB and NBA have always made do, regardless of the number of teams, and the NFL did, too, every time it expanded.   32 is perfect, of course, because everything is nicely balanced, but the NFL won't care about that.   If they can make money with 33, they'll make up a schedule.  

[GreggTX]

Every team doesn't have to have a great QB for the league to be successful. It wasn't long ago when there were only 6 or so great QB's and the NFL didn't fold. Far and away the biggest obstacle to expansion is the economy, not talent.

 

2 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

I know Derek Carr is the poster child for just because you play QB does not mean you deserve 40 million a year. See Kyler Murray also. Anyone think Bronco fans have a lot of hope in the next 5 years when they will be saddled with Russell Wilson's contract.

---

I'm not convinced that Wilson is the problem. Let's see what happens next season after Dino Hackett gets replaced with a real NFL caliber HC.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by GreggTX

[Matt_In_NH]

The qb talent has rise sharply the past 10 years.  You now even have franchise qbs moving around the league at one time that was unthinkable. 

[billsfan89]

I think there are more viable QB’s now than 20 years ago for sure. I think 20 years ago a player like Jared Goff would be a low end to 10 QB whereas now he is more like the 16th to 18th best QB in the NFL. 
 

I think the issue with expansion is that the NFL owners don’t want to split these big TV deals 34+ ways as the expansion fee while north of 6 billion is nice it would easily be eaten away at over time as you have to split your revenue more.

 

I think what’s holding up expansion is the owners wanting expansion to occur internationally and not domestically. There really isn’t a domestic market that would really entice expansion now that LA and Vegas have teams. 
 

Expanding to Mexico City might be hard to do as I am not sure if the NFL feels like the city can sustain interest in a team full time (although at some point in the next 20 years I would bet they expand to Mexico City.)

 

Then expanding to London and other areas of Europe would be fiscally viable but would the logistics would be insane. 
 

TLDR: Expansion is being held off likely because of the league wants to expand internationally and not because of QB play.

[boater]

I agree with OP... there aren't enough quality QBs to feed expansion. The college system just doesn't fill the demand. It barely does so with 32 teams.

 

If the NFL throws caution to the wind and expands anyways, it will become a stratified league where you have about 5 elite, 10 serviceable, and the rest suck QBs. Not good for entertainment.

 

I think a similar situation exists with OL.

[Billsatlastin2018]

Tis, if he’s paid > 13% of the Payroll!

 

NO QB has ever won a SB in the salary cap era.

 

This year’s Looooosers?

 

mahomes

rodgers

captain kirk

cryin tannehill!

[Punching Bag]

21 hours ago, The Red King said:

I see the occasional talk about adding more teams to the NFL.  In some ways it could help.  Diluting talent evens the playing field, and more teams mean that more players are drafted ahead of the top teams.  But there is one roadblock to this, the QB position.  A high-caliber QB is at this point in the NFL a make it or break it position.  You have one, or you don't.  Adding more teams will not add more star QBs to the pool, and with the rest of the positional talent being thinned down across additional teams league-wide it could serve to simply increase the gap between the top and mid-tier teams.

 

As a result, as things currently stand I don't think the NFL can expand in any capacity without harming the product.  A franchise QB is all but required, and there are not enough of them out there for the 32 teams we currently have.  Thoughts?

 

I think Offense Line talent is more of a factor.  Harder to find linemen who can pass block with college schemes.

[Buffalo03]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The schedule is irrelevant to the league.  They will create a schedule with 33 teams, 34, teams, however many teams they want.  MLB and NBA have always made do, regardless of the number of teams, and the NFL did, too, every time it expanded.   32 is perfect, of course, because everything is nicely balanced, but the NFL won't care about that.   If they can make money with 33, they'll make up a schedule.  

I get that, but for division purposes, are they gonna want one division in football to have one or two extra teams

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

I get that, but for division purposes, are they gonna want one division in football to have one or two extra teams

They won't care.   If it's the best choice to optimize profits, they'll have a 33-team league.   34.   Whatever it takes, they'll schedule around the problem.  It's been done before. 

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I think there are more viable QB’s now than 20 years ago for sure. I think 20 years ago a player like Jared Goff would be a low end to 10 QB whereas now he is more like the 16th to 18th best QB in the NFL. 
 

I think the issue with expansion is that the NFL owners don’t want to split these big TV deals 34+ ways as the expansion fee while north of 6 billion is nice it would easily be eaten away at over time as you have to split your revenue more.

 

I think what’s holding up expansion is the owners wanting expansion to occur internationally and not domestically. There really isn’t a domestic market that would really entice expansion now that LA and Vegas have teams. 
 

Expanding to Mexico City might be hard to do as I am not sure if the NFL feels like the city can sustain interest in a team full time (although at some point in the next 20 years I would bet they expand to Mexico City.)

 

Then expanding to London and other areas of Europe would be fiscally viable but would the logistics would be insane. 
 

TLDR: Expansion is being held off likely because of the league wants to expand internationally and not because of QB play.

 

I agree. 

 

In order to expand, the NFL has to identify metros that are large enough to support a franchise,  at least one viable would be owner/ownership group willing to ante up the initial cost of joining the NFL, and a cooperative state/local government willing to contribute to building an NFL stadium.   IMO, US metros that meet all three of these conditions have been pretty much maximized.  I can think of only three large metros currently without teams that can meet the population criteria:  Saint Louis, San Antonio, and San Diego.   

 

That leaves foreign cities, which is why there's the emphasis on games outside of the US.    I think that the NFL is working on cultivating foreign fandom in anticipation of expansion into Mexico (maybe with the 3 US cities I mentioned above) plus into Europe in the decade or two.