No interceptions since Minny game and lucky on a few fumble recoveries

[Billsfan1972]

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ (got two fumbles), but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

We didn't get lucky against the Jets, we sent their QB to the hospital with clean hits and won the game.

 

Also, if you don't count fourth down stops as big plays then, well, I don't know what to tell you!

[NewEra]

Wth is going on

[JerseyBills]

On the opposite side,  Allen fumbled twice , they recovered 1 , so 50/50. 4th down stops are huge plays. We had at least 1 dropped int vs Jets and Tua , I hate to give him a complement,  is very accurate and has only a handful of ints all year. The D is fine. The turnovers will come.. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Par for the course.

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

We didn't get lucky against the Jets, we sent their QB to the hospital with clean hits and won the game.

 

Also, if you don't count fourth down stops as big plays then, well, I don't know what to tell you!

Are you calling the Jets 4th & 10 to end the game a turnover?  

 

Only other in the 5 games was vs. Cleveland.

 

And yes in came Flacco the statue and we got the strip fumble the first play.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Bob in STL]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ, but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

 

Defense not looking good?   Coming into the game they held the Pats* to 10 and the Jets to 12 - with Von Miller and other key players out of the lineup/

 

Very illogical logic in bold.  

 

Our defense is not perfect, but it is one of the better ones in the league.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Wth is going on

We suck again 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ, but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

Fumbles are luck? Lol a lot of times they’re great tackles/defensive plays.  Why don’t fourth down stops count as big plays? 

[BuffaloRebound]

White and Johnson were getting very close to picks last night.  Problem last night was Hamlin was a step late on a couple balls that were in the air a long time.  

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Are you calling the Jets 4th & 10 to end the game a turnover?  

 

And yes in came Flacco the statue and we got the strip fumble the first play.

In your OP you cite the “lack of big plays” and then start the sentence with 4th down stops don’t count.

[chongli]

24 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ, but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

 

Would have been awesome if we could have recovered that Tua fumble like Miami recovered Josh's fumble in September. It just happened to shoot out directly to the lone Miami player.

 

[BTW, when I googled "Buffalo at Miami boxscore", it gave me the boxscore of yesterday's game at Buffalo lol.]

Edited December 18, 2022 by chongli

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

We suck again 

Not sure why I even watch anymore.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, NewEra said:

Not sure why I even watch anymore.  

Woe is us 

[Billsfan1972]

Again thanks for missing the point.  No Ints in 5 games (close doesn't count this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades).  

 

Fumbles in a scrum can bounce anywhere, so yes recoveries are often a random occurance (many articles confirm that).

 

Only two 4th down stops in the last 5 games (one ended the game on 4th & 10). 

 

Meanwhile if you're going to obsess over 4th down the Bills have been bad the last 5 weeks.

 

Cleveland 1 for 2

Detroit 3 for 3

NE 1 for 1

NYJ 0 for 1 (4th & 10 to end the game)

Mia 1 for 1 

 

So opposition converting 6 for 8 or 75%  

 

For the season conversion rate is 48% throughout the league.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Billsfan1972]

Just did a deeper dive.  Bills are +1 in Turnovers during the year.  They started off on fire with 8 the first two games and then two each vs. Baltimore, Pitt & KC....  

 

As said since the bye only an Int vs. Rodgers and 2 vs. Cousins and none the last 5 games.  They've relied on fumbles with 2 vs. NYJ (second game) and heck two vs. Detroit. 

 

As stated above too, 4th down conversions they have allowed too many 16/27, which means teams are going for it a lot vs. Buffalo (actually most in the league).

 

Third down conversions for the #4 Defense is too middle of the pack.

 

Haven't found average yards to go stat.   

 

So what this tells me is that they were very good early in the season and as said, no ints the last 5 games, have benefitted from fumbles and as said allowed 6-8 4th down conversions.

 

Let's hope it changes soon.

[teef]

So deep. 

[eball]

I’m pretty happy with the defensive adjustments made at halftime on Saturday.  First half, the Bills were clearly trying to take away Tua’s bread and butter throws by forcing receivers outside, and it left them exposed to the run.  Second half they brought more pressure and pretty much stuffed the run.  Miami’s two TDs in the 2nd half were a busted coverage on Waddle and a short field thanks to Cam Lewis.  D then shut them down the rest of the way and allowed Josh to do his thing.

 

I’m not “worried” about the defense at all, and I think as Tre continues to work back into form we’ll see some picks soon.

 

I’m extremely curious about the Micah Hyde situation…nobody is saying anything, but I can’t be the only one with a sneaking suspicion we may see #23 on the postseason roster…

 

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, teef said:

So deep. 

Appreciate it as always.  At least I didn't start a new thread?😉

 

Yes I think that no ints is an issue.  The fumbles they've recovered are as said often a 50/50 proposition.  

 

Bills btw have recovered quite a few fumbles (it is incorrect below, but they have recovered over 50% of FF).

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/fumbles/2022/reg/all

Edited December 20, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[balln]

18 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Just did a deeper dive.  Bills are +1 in Turnovers during the year.  They started off on fire with 8 the first two games and then two each vs. Baltimore, Pitt & KC....  

 

As said since the bye only an Int vs. Rodgers and 2 vs. Cousins and none the last 5 games.  They've relied on fumbles with 2 vs. NYJ (second game) and heck two vs. Detroit. 

 

As stated above too, 4th down conversions they have allowed too many 16/27, which means teams are going for it a lot vs. Buffalo (actually most in the league).

 

Third down conversions for the #4 Defense is too middle of the pack.

 

Haven't found average yards to go stat.   

 

So what this tells me is that they were very good early in the season and as said, no ints the last 5 games, have benefitted from fumbles and as said allowed 6-8 4th down conversions.

 

Let's hope it changes soon.

Get ready folks. This D is no better than last years. And prob worse in terms of players. You essentially don’t have Jerry , Mario and Hyde. They are sliding big time. 
 

add tre. Settle doesn’t move the needle / isn’t appreciably different than Harrison Phillips. 
 

dQ isn’t an every down player and he’s really good but isn’t going to affect the pass rush in the way you need 

 

it’s all on Allen. And I’m worried about the OL

Edited December 20, 2022 by balln

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:59 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Another reason the defense is not looking good is the lack of interceptions and big plays.  Fourth down stops I don't count and fumbles are really 50/50 propositions (unless strip sacks).

 

Face it a little lucky vs. NYJ (got two fumbles), but would be nice to get an int and give the offense a short field.

what is wrong with you man?

 

gtfo here...

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

what is wrong with you man?

 

gtfo here...

Welcome to put me on ignore.  I stated a fact and concern about Ints.  

 

What is so outlandish about stating a fact?

[njbuff]

It's almost impossible to predict if and when turnovers happen.

 

You would like to see the turnover pendulum in your favor in the playoffs. That's all that matters.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by njbuff

[balln]

16 minutes ago, njbuff said:

It's almost impossible to predict if and when turnovers happen.

 

You would like to see the turnover pendulum in your favor in the playoffs. That's all that matters.

 

 

It’s mostly random. But someone did a comprehensive study on it. I think Bb/ pats staff. 
 

fumbles are entirely random 

 

INTs you have more control of forcing - combo of pass rush / and coverage 

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, balln said:

It’s mostly random. But someone did a comprehensive study on it. I think Bb/ pats staff. 
 

fumbles are entirely random 

 

INTs you have more control of forcing - combo of pass rush / and coverage 

Here's an article I found and focused on Arizona who started last season 7-0.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/are-the-arizona-cardinals-benefitting-because-of-fumble-luck-162300926.html

[Ya Digg?]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:12 AM, NewEra said:

Wth is going on

This is almost like saying “well if you don’t count all of the touchdowns the Bills have only kicked field goals all year” or “if you take away the drives where the Bills made the other team punt, they have given up a touchdown or a field goal on almost every drive”

[MJS]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:19 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Fumbles are luck? Lol a lot of times they’re great tackles/defensive plays.  Why don’t fourth down stops count as big plays? 

Forcing a fumble is not luck. But once the ball is out, it can bounce anywhere and anyone can recover it. That's the luck piece. Bills have had horrible, rotten luck in the fumble recovery space all year. Almost all our forced fumbles have bounced right back to the opposing team, and almost all of our fumbles bounce to an opposing defender. That's bad luck. Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

[TheWei44]

Fourth down stops are big plays for sure - Often similar in magnitude/implications as a turnover.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Forcing a fumble is not luck. But once the ball is out, it can bounce anywhere and anyone can recover it. That's the luck piece. Bills have had horrible, rotten luck in the fumble recovery space all year. Almost all our forced fumbles have bounced right back to the opposing team, and almost all of our fumbles bounce to an opposing defender. That's bad luck. Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

This. I’d like to think that it’s a matter of time before the ball bounces our way but I don’t even get excited when the other team fumbles because I know they’ll just get it back. When we fumble I know it’s going to bounce to them though. Forcing the fumble isn’t luck but which direction the oddly shaped ball bounces is all luck. And we have no good luck. 
 

Not forcing turnovers just means josh has to always be Superman and perfect on nearly every drive. Our passive defensive philosophy is stupid in that our goal shouldn’t be to allow the other team to drive down the field. We should be looking to get the ball back however we can go josh. It’s why I can’t in my mind see us winning it all. It holds us back too often and ultimately will be our downfall. 

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Fourth down stops are big plays for sure - Often similar in magnitude/implications as a turnover.

The Bills D has been terrible on 4th down stops in the aggregate, however.

[TheWei44]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills D has been terrible on 4th down stops in the aggregate, however.

 

You're right - We've been below average this year overall, and right about average for 2020 and 2021 (I checked the stats).  I'm sure there are a lot of factors impacting the average.  To my eye, the Bills D has generally been good this year in short yardage situations - Maybe 4th downs are an exception to that or that I'm focusing more on recent games?

Edited December 20, 2022 by TheWei44

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

 

You're right - We've been below average this year overall, and right about average for 2020 and 2021 (I checked the stats).  I'm sure there are a lot of factors impacting the average.  To my eye, the Bills D has generally been good this year in short yardage situations - Maybe 4th downs are an exception to that or that I'm focusing more on recent games?

Recent games they've allowed 6-8 (one being fourth & 10 vs. Jets). 

 

Not good. 

 

They've gotten agreed some big third down stops, but then the concern is how they got to 3rd & 1 or 2 too.  Always a debate.  

[BearNorth]

League Average for 4th Down Conversions is 51%, Bills are allowing 59%. 

Bills have converted 50%, but have only tried 12 fourth down conversions.

Suspect that is due both to the high 3rd down conversion rate and McD being conservative unless the game situation calls for it.

[teef]

53 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Appreciate it as always.  At least I didn't start a new thread?😉

 

Yes I think that no ints is an issue.  The fumbles they've recovered are as said often a 50/50 proposition.  

 

Bills btw have recovered quite a few fumbles (it is incorrect below, but they have recovered over 50% of FF).

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/fumbles/2022/reg/all

i think the idea of this thread was solid, but the omitting certain criteria always seem to get in your way.

[Freddie's Dead]

***** is your problem?

[Dablitzkrieg]

After we win the superbowl, some idiot will post how our offense struggles in the red zone or the defence can't stop the run.  This ***** is getting old fast

Edited December 20, 2022 by Dablitzkrieg

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

In the last 5 games since Minn, our opponents have 11 fumbles/ 5 lost and 0 interceptions, we have had 4 fumbles/ 2 lost and 1 interception. On the other hand we haven't attempted a fourth down 0/0, our opponents are 6/8.

 

My analysis: turnovers have meant very little, perhaps slightly in Bills favor (+2). Josh is doing a better job protecting the ball, the D is not getting interceptions. Fumble recovery luck is right in line with what you'd expect. Fourth down D has been atrocious and needs to improve.

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, balln said:

Get ready folks. This D is no better than last years. And prob worse in terms of players. You essentially don’t have Jerry , Mario and Hyde. They are sliding big time. 
 

add tre. Settle doesn’t move the needle / isn’t appreciably different than Harrison Phillips. 
 

dQ isn’t an every down player and he’s really good but isn’t going to affect the pass rush in the way you need 

 

it’s all on Allen. And I’m worried about the OL

OMG the D isn’t better than they have been? Pretty sure they’ve been very good during McD’s tenure , but okay I’m ready. It’s a good thing the Bills have Josh Allen - you’d almost think the best QBs are huge in deciding the outcome of football games or something. 

[TheBrownBear]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Spencer Brown recovering that one fumble was huge.

I'm hoping that was the "tide has turned" play with regards to the fumbles.  It sure felt like it while watching in real time.  All of the momentum was with Miami and Josh had just fumbled on the previous possession, and then he fumbles again but it goes right to Brown.  Then Cook rips off a nice run and Josh hits them  a moment later with the big 45 yard sprint down the sideline and the rest is history.  

 

Now we just need one of our DBs to come down with one of these 50/50 jump balls that the opposing receivers keep plucking out of the azzes. 

[TheBrownBear]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Recent games they've allowed 6-8 (one being fourth & 10 vs. Jets). 

 

Not good. 

 

They've gotten agreed some big third down stops, but then the concern is how they got to 3rd & 1 or 2 too.  Always a debate.  

Yeah, that stat isn't good, but, weirdly, while watching the games (post the back-to-back Jets/Minny debacles) it doesn't seem to me that they are allowing an extraordinary amount of 4th downs.   I guess I was just surprised by it.