Week 5: Steelers at Bills 10/9 1pm

[BillsfaninSB]

This injury stuff is getting old fast.   So annoying.   Now I’m nervous about the game.   Was hoping to have a break from being stressed out. 

[Johnnycage46]

Does anyone know if we still have Josh Effing Allen?

 

Oh, we do...game on.

 

Sure the injuries are not ideal but we have enough talent on this team to beat the Steelers (who are just not a good team this year...i know, i know, last year's Jags game, yadda yadda yadda).  As long as we have Allen and the O line is ok (which according to the injury report they appear to be) I think we will be fine at home.

[Billz4ever]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Of course it is and it should be factored in.  I'm sick and tired of playing KC on the road in the playoffs and I'm sure Sean is too. Give most of these guys an extra week to heal and hope our depth and QB1 can get us this W.  But of course the devils advocate argument is we better not lose to a Steeler team w/o TJ and a rookie qb making his first start.  Then this board will lose their $#!?

Yes, that's certainly the devil's advocate argument because it was our failure to beat the teams we were supposed to beat last year that was the reason we were playing the playoff game in Arrowhead and not at home.

[HeHateMe]

These injuries are getting ridiculous.. We are putting an awful lot on Allen's shoulders to carry this team.  Don't like it.

[TheBrownBear]

Next news we'll get is that Von's out due to over-resting himself during a veteran rest day.

 

By the way, what's McDermott's record against rookie quarterbacks?  It's something ridiculously good, right?  I'm expecting pain for Pickett regardless of who's out in the secondary.

[Scott7975]

It sucks but injuries are part of the game.  The Bills just have to deal with it just like all the rest of the teams do.  We have a great defense even with the injuries and we have Josh Allen.  The Bills will be fine.

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

Does anyone know if we still have Josh Effing Allen?

 

Oh, we do...game on.

 

Sure the injuries are not ideal but we have enough talent on this team to beat the Steelers (who are just not a good team this year...i know, i know, last year's Jags game, yadda yadda yadda).  As long as we have Allen and the O line is ok (which according to the injury report they appear to be) I think we will be fine at home.

 

And Diggs and Von. I had picked 31-10 but may have to revise that. Bills still win but I don't know if they will cover the spread.

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

These injuries are getting ridiculous.. We are putting an awful lot on Allen's shoulders to carry this team.  Don't like it.

 

The defense is still playing at a very high level and will likely continue to do so.  They are still better than 20-25 other defenses in the NFL even with the injuries. Oliver is likely to be back and Phillips has a shot of playing as well.

 

Weather the storm. Don't blink.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Big Turk

[Johnnycage46]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

And Diggs and Von. I had picked 31-10 but may have to revise that. Bills still win but I don't know if they will cover the spread.

 

Agree on the spread and the win.  If they come out focused and avoid a half like the 1st half last week I think the Bills should control this game and should be in command from start to finish.  Obviously anything can happen, but with a rookie quarterback on the other side (who I actually think might get a few big plays due to taking risks), and no TJ Watt, I think we should be able to move the ball readily.  I will have some nerves before the game as usual, but I think this is probably the best I've felt before a game yet this season.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

29 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Scheduling formula breakdown:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-17-game-schedule-heres-how-the-complicated-scheduling-formula-will-work-with-the-extra-game/

Yea that doesn’t really make it clear who’s home in those intra-conference games but the rest is pretty well explained.  Based on past schedules it looks like each division gets the home game twice in a row then it switches

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I'm taking the points since we're fielding the weak sisters of the poor on our side this week.

 

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea that doesn’t really make it clear who’s home in those intra-conference games but the rest is pretty well explained.  Based on past schedules it looks like each division gets the home game twice in a row then it switches

 

Not sure how they determine that. May be on a rotational basis

[LABILLBACKER]

28 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Yes, that's certainly the devil's advocate argument because it was our failure to beat the teams we were supposed to beat last year that was the reason we were playing the playoff game in Arrowhead and not at home.

Exactly....last year we took care of business in Arrowhead but those embarrassing loses to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville & the Wind NE game just destroyed us. We've already lost a weather (112° index) game in Miami.  We can't afford a let down this Sunday regardless of the slew of injuries. 

[Robert Paulson]

13 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea that doesn’t really make it clear who’s home in those intra-conference games but the rest is pretty well explained.  Based on past schedules it looks like each division gets the home game twice in a row then it switches

i think alternates by postion in standings 1,2,3,4.

2022

AFC West 1,3 home

AFC west 2,4 Away

 

2023

it is the opposite

 

so it matters where we finsih 

[gordong]

y'all worry to much...   Allen is healthy bills win.

 

 Ed and Phillips should sit this game out too. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by gordong

[Warcodered]

 

[John from Riverside]

I noticed that Justin Murray Has finally practiced full

[NickelCity]

17 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I noticed that Justin Murray Has finally practiced full

 

The Lombardi is ours, fellas. 

[No_Matter_What]

52 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Yea that doesn’t really make it clear who’s home in those intra-conference games but the rest is pretty well explained.  Based on past schedules it looks like each division gets the home game twice in a row then it switches

It doesn't work like that for all divisions, but yeah it does for AFC East. And there is no way how to avoid it. See below.

 

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So at least 2 in a row and possibly 3 in Buffalo should be on the horizon.  

2015 @ KC

2017 @ KC

2020 @ Buf

2021 @ KC

2022 @ KC

So if you throw in our playoff inability to earn a higher seed than KC, we've faced them on the road 6 out of the last 7 meetings dating back to 2015. This formula is mathematically flawed. It should be a home and home alternate with a year or 2 off like 2018, 2019.

It is not flawed; this is actually the only way how to do it (within existing system). First of all, you need to exclude playoffs from your calculations, that is just something entirely different.

 

Secondly, you can't look at just KC, since 2 out of 3 years we only play them if we end up on the same spot in respective divisions the year before. So, you need to look at it as an AFC West opponent. For a second let's imagine that both we and Chiefs always win our respective divisions. Then we would play them like this:

 

2020 home (we played complete West division, home game vs North winner, road game vs South winner)

2021 away (South whole division, North home, West away)

2022 away (North whole division, South home, West away)

2023 away (West whole division, South home, North away)

2024 home (South whole division, West home, North away)

2025 home (North whole division, West home, South away)

2026 home (West whole division, North home, South away)

2027 away (South whole division, North home, West away)

 

As you can see, it is completely fair, it just doesn't work as you would intuitively expect - rotating those games when we don't play whole division. And here is the trick - it is not possible, at least not for all divisions. It is hard to explain, but trust me on this, you just can't create a formula where you alternate home and road games for all divisions.

 

And for some reason AFC East is a division which plays every other division the way GBF describes above - we play each division twice in a row at home and then it rotates. But since every third year we play all teams from such division, it ends up like it is - we play AFC West counterpart three times at row at home and then three times at row away. It looks weird but it makes scheduling sense. And to be clear, not all divisions work like this. For example, AFC South only plays like this with our AFC East. But vs other divisions they rotate games more.

 

So we are just unlucky to hit away streak vs them and it is multiplied by the fact that we always end up playing at Arrowhead in January. That needs to change

 

One last note - as a result of above formula, this is the third year in a row when we play Steelers at home.

Edited October 7, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Really?  Why doesn't this happen with our guys 

 

I mean, we should be getting Oliver and Phillips back at least.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

I think that's right.

 

Separately, for the 17th game, since we played Washington at home, then LA on the road, we should get either the NFC North or South next year, and could be home or away, I guess.  If we win the division should be GB or Tampa?

 

Tampa, or whoever wins NFC South. And at home.

 

https://fbschedules.com/2023-buffalo-bills-schedule/

[Rico]

1 hour ago, Nineforty said:

Pickett ain't no Tommy Maddox. we got this. 

Even more importantly, Josh ain’t no Brain Dead Drew.

[Billz4ever]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly....last year we took care of business in Arrowhead but those embarrassing loses to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville & the Wind NE game just destroyed us. We've already lost a weather (112° index) game in Miami.  We can't afford a let down this Sunday regardless of the slew of injuries. 

I think Poyer being out hurts the most because even with the other guys in the secondary out, he was the guy that kept the squad together even with the 2nd and 3rd stringers.

 

I'm gonna blow a gasket if we make this kid look like the second coming of Tom Brady coming off the bench for an injured Bledsoe.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Billz4ever

[Dr. Who]

42 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

It doesn't work like that for all divisions, but yeah it does for AFC East. And there is no way how to avoid it. See below.

 

It is not flawed; this is actually the only way how to do it (within existing system). First of all, you need to exclude playoffs from your calculations, that is just something entirely different.

 

Secondly, you can't look at just KC, since 2 out of 3 years we only play them if we end up on the same spot in respective divisions the year before. So, you need to look at it as an AFC West opponent. For a second let's imagine that both we and Chiefs always win our respective divisions. Then we would play them like this:

 

2020 home (we played complete West division, home game vs North winner, road game vs South winner)

2021 away (South whole division, North home, West away)

2022 away (North whole division, South home, West away)

2023 away (West whole division, South home, North away)

2024 home (South whole division, West home, North away)

2025 home (North whole division, West home, South away)

2026 home (West whole division, North home, South away)

2027 away (South whole division, North home, West away)

 

As you can see, it is completely fair, it just doesn't work as you would intuitively expect - rotating those games when we don't play whole division. And here is the trick - it is not possible, at least not for all divisions. It is hard to explain, but trust me on this, you just can't create a formula where you alternate home and road games for all divisions.

 

And for some reason AFC East is a division which plays every other division the way GBF describes above - we play each division twice in a row at home and then it rotates. But since every third year we play all teams from such division, it ends up like it is - we play AFC West counterpart three times at row at home and then three times at row away. It looks weird but it makes scheduling sense. And to be clear, not all divisions work like this. For example, AFC South only plays like this with our AFC East. But vs other divisions they rotate games more.

 

So we are just unlucky to hit away streak vs them and it is multiplied by the fact that we always end up playing at Arrowhead in January. That needs to change

 

One last note - as a result of above formula, this is the third year in a row when we play Steelers at home.

Thanks for the explanation. I'm still irritated by it, but I get your point. It wouldn't matter so much if the years of consecutive KC games didn't also coincide with a time when both teams are in the ascendancy and vying for the top seed in the conference. Fluke or not, it's an advantage for KC.

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

I think Poyer being out hurts the most because even with the other guys in the secondary out, he was the guy that kept the squad together even with the 2nd and 3rd stringers.

 

I'm gonna blow a gasket if we make this kid look like the second coming of Tom Brady coming off the bench for an injured Bledsoe.

 

We had the entire secondary out and forced a rookie PS CB in Ingram into the game for 2.5 quarters in Miami and largely made the Dolphins look bad on offense.  Tua threw for 187 yards.

 

We have Dane Jackson this game and Elam now has a few more games of experience and has played very very well.  I think we will be fine.  D Line should maul them up front.

[Billz4ever]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

We had the entire secondary out and forced a rookie PS CB in Ingram into the game for 2.5 quarters in Miami and largely made the Dolphins look bad on offense.  Tua threw for 187 yards.

 

We have Dane Jackson this game and Elam now has a few more games of experience and has played very very well.  I think we will be fine.  D Line should maul them up front.

I certainly hope you're right.  I'm just recalling opponents we've made look better than they really were.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Billz4ever

[Bob in STL]

5 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Guys not playing because of soreness is pitiful.  

 

I can't stand how conservative McDermott is with injuries.  Burned us big time in Miami with the botched snap.  

What botched snap?  

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

They got 5 DTs.  One has to sit.  I think Ed plays and Phillips sits one more week and is ready for KC.

Jones, Settle, Bryant and Oliver will be more than enough to give the PIT(T) rookie fits.

 I think that's likely

[Beck Water]

Just now, Bob in STL said:

What botched snap?  

 

It's scored as a Josh Allen fumble.  There was an aborted snap in the 1Q of the MIA game. 

 

But @Back2Buff is confused, because it was recovered, just cost us a down, and we scored a TD 3 plays later.  The other 2 fumbles were strips.

 

It was clear that Allen was having to look for the ball and adjust A Lot, and that cost us all game in being able to quickly adjust and also in not being able to operate under center (Dorsey admitted that).  

 

But Morse and Allen had a couple of exchange problems at the end of the Tennessee game as well, and Morse and Allen had an aborted snap that put us in 4th and 1 in the 3Q of the Ravens game.  So it's  really not clear that McDermott was being "too conservative" vs. Morse genuinely having a R arm injury that affected his ability to snap and caused him to need to rest a week and heal (incompletely).

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

I certainly hope you're right.  I'm just recalling opponents we've made look better than they really were.

 

That's been many many years ago. I am not sure that has happened under McD.  Usually we make them look like they shouldn't be in the NFL.

[hemma]

When you start to get nervous, just remember their qb is a chest-puffing rookie with 8.5” hands.

 

[Bob in STL]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It's scored as a Josh Allen fumble.  There was an aborted snap in the 1Q of the MIA game. 

 

But @Back2Buff is confused, because it was recovered, just cost us a down, and we scored a TD 3 plays later.  The other 2 fumbles were strips.

 

It was clear that Allen was having to look for the ball and adjust A Lot, and that cost us all game in being able to quickly adjust and also in not being able to operate under center (Dorsey admitted that).  

 

But Morse and Allen had a couple of exchange problems at the end of the Tennessee game as well, and Morse and Allen had an aborted snap that put us in 4th and 1 in the 3Q of the Ravens game.  So it's  really not clear that McDermott was being "too conservative" vs. Morse genuinely having a R arm injury that affected his ability to snap and caused him to need to rest a week and heal (incompletely).

And the play that Allen failed to spike the ball before the half, that was on Allen.  He lost control of the ball.  

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

And the play that Allen failed to spike the ball before the half, that was on Allen.  He lost control of the ball.  

 

Watch the snap again...it was a bad snap...he snapped it off the top of his butt.

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

And the play that Allen failed to spike the ball before the half, that was on Allen.  He lost control of the ball.  

 

I'm not so clear on that.  When there's a problem with the C QB exchange, you don't know which side it's on usually.

[John from Riverside]

41 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

I think Poyer being out hurts the most because even with the other guys in the secondary out, he was the guy that kept the squad together even with the 2nd and 3rd stringers.

 

I'm gonna blow a gasket if we make this kid look like the second coming of Tom Brady coming off the bench for an injured Bledsoe.

I am wondering where this worry is coming from

We have shut down Stafford Lamont and Tua Now we’re worried about a rookie on a losing team?

 

The defense is as healthy as it’s been in weeks because we’re finally getting some interior pass rush back

 

Relax

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

Yeah to miss 4 games with an ankle injury seems like a lot…. Was Ed’s ankle a high ankle? Cause I just thought it was ankle…. Didn’t seem serious but he’s played like 2 Qtrs this year 

 

I think it was a locker room interview, Oliver said he didn't think it was a high ankle initially but by the time he got off the plane from LA, he knew.  So yeah, and missing 4-6 weeks is kinda standard for that.

[Billz4ever]

18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That's been many many years ago. I am not sure that has happened under McD.  Usually we make them look like they shouldn't be in the NFL.

I kinda put the Jacksonville game last year in that category.  I still can't believe we blew that game.

[Big Turk]

Just now, Billz4ever said:

I kinda put the Jacksonville game last year in that category.  I still can't believe we blew that game.

 

Trevor Lawrence threw for 118 yards.

[Billz4ever]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Trevor Lawrence threw for 118 yards.

That's exactly why I said I can't believe we blew that game, lol

[Bob in STL]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not so clear on that.  When there's a problem with the C QB exchange, you don't know which side it's on usually.

As a former center I think I do.  LOL