Eastport bills Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is an overpriced contract with a TE that hasn’t established his value. He has injuries and low receptions in his career and with Kincaid we just need a TE who blocks. He has red zone and TD stats but I’d rather devote his cap hit to a FA receiver that stretches the field or a depth LB that can rush the QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nobody: vtnatefootball11: The Dawson Knox contract thread from a year and a half ago for a LAMP 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Knox contract looks bad on the surface, but the nitty gritty details leave some room for flexibility. We can restructure this season, which basically guarantees next year, and save some cash. He’s a solid #1, great #2 TE. He isn’t a top end paid TE, although his pay for a #2 (or 1B) is high. TE1 money wise, he is middle of the pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: We can restructure this season, which basically guarantees next year, and save some cash. By save some cash do you mean lower the 2024 cap hit and increase the cap hits in figure years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said: By save some cash do you mean lower the 2024 cap hit and increase the cap hits in figure years? I’m no cap expert, but yes I believe we can lower his cap hit in 2024, which increases his guarantees for 2025. I may be wrong though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freak-O Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said: Bringing this thread back to life after some time has passed from the Knox signing. I took a lot of heat for saying it on this board at the time, but it was a terrible contract then and looks even worse now. It needs to be talked about how bad of a miss this was by Beane. He is going to count $14 mil against the cap this year, $20m if we release him... How the heck did Beane let this happen! His touchdown numbers were inflated that season before we re-signed him, there was no good reason to extend him at that time. He's never flashed elite talent. I'm still sick over it. How about trying as hard to find things Beane has done well as you do trying to find things that hasn’t gone well? No one bats a thousand. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Last season he was the 15th highest paid TE at 6.3, unfortunately he dealt with injuries all season. Next year he’s slated to be 5th at 14.3m but that ranking drops after FA and I’m sure he restructures. A 4m pay decrease drops him into the 13-15 range, which was fair for a starting TE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is a rip off, don't do it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 3 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: Knox didn't suddenly become unable to make plays. We lost Beasley, Brown and Sanders and basically didn't replace them until this year with Kincaid. in 2022 we brought Brown and Beasley out of retirement for a playoff run for crying out loud! Shakir has made some nice plays, and hopefully he continues to develop. But we forget that we had Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Sanders and Knox. We used to have actual deep threats on the team to open up space. That’s exactly what happened this season when he broke his wrist. i’m bringing it up in a joking way, but mainly my point is that it impacted him greatly this season - especially when he tried to play through it. I said it before and I’ll say it again now, the tight end market is crazy. At the time I thought it was a slight overpay, but nothing to get the pitchforks out over. Edited February 22 by BarleyNY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vtnatefootball11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Freak-O said: How about trying as hard to find things Beane has done well as you do trying to find things that hasn’t gone well? No one bats a thousand. You haven't been readying the posts, I've complimented Beane over and over again just in the last couple pages and said he just missed this Knox one badly. @GunnerBill Lots of disagreement from you on the assertion that the Knox contract was a bad one. Please elaborate on why you think it wasn't a bad contract. I'm genuinely curious as to how you could possibly have that opinion. Edited February 22 by vtnatefootball11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It’s easy to sit here and think about Knox’ 2023 season, look at his 2024 cap hit, and complain. If you actually look at the 20 top paid TEs for next season, it looks nearly random. Dawson Knox is far from the only ‘bad contract.’ I think everyone on this MB would feel better if Knox was 17-20th highest paid TE in the NFL. He would definitely be better than most of the TE’s he’d be neighbored around. 17-20 TE money is still 8.5-9m per year range, that’s just a 5m pay cut, totally do-able. I’d like to see them restructure this year to lower the cap hit, making larger commitments to 2025. If 2024 is another bust for Knox, eat your medicine and move on, they can still save some money. If Knox has a nice rebound season as a still featured TE1b, then you can extend his contract past 2025, spreading those commitments out again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Special K Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 On 9/7/2022 at 12:51 PM, Special K said: That was my first thought after hearing about the Knox contract....”save some money for Davis and Oliver!!” I’m pretty sure they will be the next two priorities for re-signing next offseason. This is is likely the last season in a Bills uniform for Singletary and Edmunds. I’m holding out hope for a 1 year extension for Poyer, but I’m sure he’s looking for a longer term deal and will roll the dice on the FA market next offseason. Found my post in this massive thread.....not too far off aside from Davis......thanks to Kincaid, Knox has become an expensive backup, but I think there is still a role for him as far as run blocking and red zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 the biggest potential mismatch on the field of football is the QB. The second is the TE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Special K said: Found my post in this massive thread.....not too far off aside from Davis......thanks to Kincaid, Knox has become an expensive backup, but I think there is still a role for him as far as run blocking and red zone. He can still easily get 3-5 targets a game. 51 to 85 targets a season. He caught 61% of his passes last year, 61% of 85 targets is 51 catches. Thats a career high, and puts him in the top half if TEs statically. There is a path for production in this offense for Knox, without taking anything away from Kincaid and Shakir. Edited February 22 by TheyCallMeAndy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: Every time I watch SF, Kittle does close to nothing. For sure. When he got injured and misses some time in their most recent game, the announcers went on a out what a huge loss it was, but I was thinking the entire time that he had done nothing up to that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 In the 7 games after his injury, Knox posted 10 catches (11 targets) 97 yards, 2 TDs 1 drop. 9 first downs. Post injury Dawson Knox was absolutely fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrMaxPower Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 38 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: It’s easy to sit here and think about Knox’ 2023 season, look at his 2024 cap hit, and complain. If you actually look at the 20 top paid TEs for next season, it looks nearly random. Dawson Knox is far from the only ‘bad contract.’ I think everyone on this MB would feel better if Knox was 17-20th highest paid TE in the NFL. He would definitely be better than most of the TE’s he’d be neighbored around. 17-20 TE money is still 8.5-9m per year range, that’s just a 5m pay cut, totally do-able. I’d like to see them restructure this year to lower the cap hit, making larger commitments to 2025. If 2024 is another bust for Knox, eat your medicine and move on, they can still save some money. If Knox has a nice rebound season as a still featured TE1b, then you can extend his contract past 2025, spreading those commitments out again. I think this explains the realities of the situation pretty well. Like it or not, people always look at the stats 1st. Knox's have obviously been underwhelming. I think most were expecting an increase in usage but it's been the opposite. The reality is there are very few true 'dual' TE's. Most lean heavily to either a blocking or receiving role. Dawson is in a pretty small group that can do both well. He's become a very good blocker and is a plus athlete for the position. He's certainly making more than his current role justifies but I think people are kidding themselves if they think he wouldn't get similar money as a FA. He'd be 10-14 mil all day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: In the 7 games after his injury, Knox posted 10 catches (11 targets) 97 yards, 2 TDs 1 drop. 9 first downs. Post injury Dawson Knox was absolutely fine. The argument is Knox isn’t worth the contract for his production on the field. These numbers further illustrate that point. Essentially 1 catch per game for a first down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 55 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said: @GunnerBill Lots of disagreement from you on the assertion that the Knox contract was a bad one. Please elaborate on why you think it wasn't a bad contract. I'm genuinely curious as to how you could possibly have that opinion. Because across 2021 and 2022 he was a top 5 Tight End in terms of redzone production. His production elsewhere was a result of game plan not any lack of ability on his part - he was top 10 (all players) in separation rates per Next Gen Stats - the Bills just ignored him. Where the Bills used him, he was excellent. I am willing to give him a mulligan on 2023 given the injuries. He played hurt from week 2 on until they finally shut him down for a chunk of the year. I do think the drafting of Kincaid and the fact that Josh prefers to play in 11 means his bare production has a ceiling, but he is still a very good player. Edited February 22 by GunnerBill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Brand J said: The argument is Knox isn’t worth the contract for his production on the field. These numbers further illustrate that point. Essentially 1 catch per game for a first down. But arguing about a contract is dumb, because there is always something the team can do to adjust the money. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said: This is fair and I agree on the personnel. Diggs, explosive rookie WR2, Shakir and Kincaid in traditional 11 personnel should be our base. The more run-heavy offense the Bills ran under Brady will make that tough unless Kincaid learns to block. 11 with Kincaid isn’t all that great against the blitz either. He’s an excellent receiver, but he belongs in the slot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: But arguing about a contract is dumb, because there is always something the team can do to adjust the money. Tell that to everyone who’s up in arms about the Von Miller contract. That’s what we do on message boards and talk in general - debate and value a player’s worth in relation to his production on the field. There’s a long list of contract regrets with this team. 2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: The more run-heavy offense the Bills ran under Brady will make that tough unless Kincaid learns to block. 11 with Kincaid isn’t all that great against the blitz either. He’s an excellent receiver, but he belongs in the slot. Kincaid actually had some pretty nice blocks on the season. He says himself it’s something he’ll continue to work on, but he’s not a total dud. The effort is there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrMaxPower Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Brand J said: Tell that to everyone who’s up in arms about the Von Miller contract. That’s what we do on message boards and talk in general - debate and value a player’s worth in relation to his production on the field. There’s a long list of contract regrets with this team. Kincaid actually had some pretty nice blocks on the season. He says himself it’s something he’ll continue to work on, but he’s not a total dud. The effort is there. Those tended to be downfield and more like 'getting in the way'. I did appreciate the effort though. He was active. He is most certainly not a guy you set up off the tackles shoulder to block an end like Knox. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said: Injury plagued?! Try being replaced by a rookie that we took in the first round because Knox was a not an impact player to begin with. You are forgetting he didn't live up to the contract last year either, (and never has). He got paid top 5 TE money! Only Kittle, Andrews and Kelce will make more than him this coming season (and like barely more). And he's always had some durability questions marks, that's part of the issue with the contract! Pretty much. He's being paid as a top #1TE but he's a #2. Even if Brady runs more 12 personnel it's just not a good contract. A good contract is one that looks good in hindsight, not just on the day the ink dries. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said: I edited it, to include Kittle and Andrews. It's true. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/salaries/breakdown/tight-end/ Exactly that's my point! His ceiling was a fairly consistent playmaker if he has enough support around him, why did we pay him elite TE money?! It is a disgusting contract any way you look at it, even getting full leniency for injuries, death of his brother etc. It's awful, awful. GM malpractice really. Beane has been so damn good it's just shocking, that's why I can't get over it. Miller was an elite player and it was risky contract but at least I understand the roll of the dice there. Knox’s biggest issue is that the FO has taken far to much time finding replacements for Beasley and Brown/ Sanders, ( remember Knox’s production when we had them?). We have been using a WR 3/4 as our 2nd boundary/#2 receiver, (Davis) who doesn’t take coverage away from anyone as of late. Shakir is in effect our New 3/4 receiver, taking Gabe’s role going forward, which imo is an improvement. Kincaid is in all reality our new Beasley, and we are still lacking a #2 WR, to fill John Browns role, which will take coverage away from Diggs and or the middle of the field, until we get our new John Brown we aren’t able to clear out the middle of the field or take extra coverage away from Diggs or our TEs. We have to find our new John Brown this off season, it’s imperative that this happens. When it does happen, all of our receivers will then be facing far more favorable coverages, which is a good thing. It then becomes a pick your poison problem for opposing defenses if they double up a Kincaid or say Diggs…, we got a Shakir, Knox or our new John Brown in good position to make plays, it becomes a win win situation for our offense. Just sayin…, 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 40 minutes ago, Brand J said: Kincaid actually had some pretty nice blocks on the season. He says himself it’s something he’ll continue to work on, but he’s not a total dud. The effort is there. As a blocker this past season he wasn’t the total disaster he was in college, but he was still poor overall. The progress is encouraging, but he has a long way to go. I’m rooting for his continued improvement. If he can become an even average blocker, then he will be a fantastic, complete TE1. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nothing like reviving a two-year-old thread just to say, "I told you so." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The only problem I have with Knox’s contract is they drafted a better player at his position less than a calendar year later. At one point it seemed Knox was on the rise but Kincaid basically put a stop to that. Beane and his luxury picks. Bad situation that began with bad management Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 13 minutes ago, BananaB said: The only problem I have with Knox’s contract is they drafted a better player at his position less than a calendar year later. At one point it seemed Knox was on the rise but Kincaid basically put a stop to that. Beane and his luxury picks. Bad situation that began with bad management Not really, Kincaid played like 70% of his snaps off the line and in the slot. Knox will get plenty of snaps as the in line TE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: But arguing about a contract is dumb, because there is always something the team can do to adjust the money. I’m the originator of this argument. No point in arguing contracts. Waste of time for NFL players. Maybe in the NBA or NHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Jay_Fixit said: I’m the originator of this argument. No point in arguing contracts. Waste of time for NFL players. Maybe in the NBA or NHL. Right, I get SOME contracts we have our hands tied. Knox’ isn’t one of them. We have one thread where fans are convinced we can work with Diggs extension, which is in year 1 and has 70 in guarantees. However, Knox’s deal of significantly less value? Nope, concrete. He’s still going to get plenty of snaps as in his traditional inline TE role as Kincaid plays off the line A LOT. It’s not a stretch to say he can still be a 40-50 catch guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said: But arguing about a contract is dumb, because there is always something the team can do to adjust the money. Generally true in football unless it's the Watson contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, WhoTom said: Nothing like reviving a two-year-old thread just to say, "I told you so." I wonder how his X's feel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 10 hours ago, TheFunPolice said: Every time I watch SF, Kittle does close to nothing. The last three seasons Kittle has 15 games over 80 receiving yards in 45 games. Every third game Kittle is having a big game. I’d say that is doing something fairly frequently. Knox has three such games over the same time span and 40 games played. Knox is having a big game every 13th game or basically once per season. Kittle has 7 games over 100 yards receiving. Knox has 1. Kittle has 5 games over with 120+ yards receiving. Knox has zero. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 In 2 years, will the Blaine Gabbert thread get bumped? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 11 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: Yeah, he's 16th in Base Salary this year: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/base/tight-end/ And 5th in total cap hit: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/tight-end/ I know at one point the Bills were undefeated in games Knox scored at least 1 TD. Something to be said for that and our offense clicking when we can get him the ball. Bills are 19-1 in the regular season when Knox scores a TD. That is a crazy stat. The one loss was to Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. 4-1 in the postseason with the one loss being the KC conference championship game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortchaz Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 54 million dollars….just an insane amount of money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yantha Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Bad contract. Fairly good player but this is a waste of money where it will be needed elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 The tre white and Von miller contracts were unlucky. The Knox contract was arguably bad judgment on Beanes part. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 16 minutes ago, Chaos said: The tre white and Von miller contracts were unlucky. The Knox contract was arguably bad judgment on Beanes part. Is it still bad judgement if he never sees the big money? He made 6.4m last year, he hasn’t made the big numbers yet in his contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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