Offensive stat that needs to be improved - YAC

[CorkScrewHill]

 

While watching this year it seemed to me that we had far fewer YAC yards than the other contenders. When looking at Profootball Reference it was much worse than I thought .. we don't have the lowest YAC per completion of the contenders .. we have the lowest YAC per completion in the league 4.2 yards. The 49ers were tops at 6.6 followed by the Bengals, Chiefs, and Packers.  The net is the Chiefs ended up with about 1000 more YAC than the Bills (2728 to 1760).

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm - sort by "YAC / Cmp".

 

It seems that to some extent our receivers, backs, TEs are not great at making the 1st defender miss (though without data to back it up .. it always seemed like Diggs found ways to get extra yards. I think some of it is also on Josh as he seems to hit the recievers but they are not always positioned to make a move. If I were the Bills / Jordan Palmer .. that is what I would work on this coming year. The interesting thing is if you just give Josh 500 more YAC by the receivers .. he would have been 3rd in passing yards even though we had so many bad weather games.

 

[947]

Totally agree with you.

 

A few contributing factors off the top my head:

 

- It seemed like we ran less crossing routes than in we did in 2020, especially early in the season.

- Beasley wasn't breaking away like prior years, going down within 2-3 yards of the catch more than he used to.

- Diggs was bracketed the majority of the time & didn't have as many YAC opportunities.

- The OL was pretty bad for more than half of the season, causing Josh to get rid of the ball early, resulting in more low passes that had receivers sliding down to catch.

- We barely used Gabe Davis for half the year, and he's solid in YAC.

[BuffaloBobs]

I think some of this is likely because we are one of the leaders in air yards per completion. By design if you are throwing the ball further down the field you give the defense more of an opportunity to make a quick stop.

Edited February 10, 2022 by BuffaloBobs

[BuffaloBillies]

FWIW - looking at the same data, Josh/Bills were second in the league in CAY/COMP (completed air yards per completion) at 6.5 yards. So in a way, the lack of YAC yards are somewhat made up by the fact that we're throwing the ball further down the field to begin with.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Some has been play design and some is lack of speed. Maybe both get addressed with a new OC and personnel through draft/FA. 

Edited February 10, 2022 by atlbillsfan1975

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

 - Need more talent that can execute those routes and take off with it.

 

- Need play caller to scheme up and call those plays

 

- Need your QB to be able/willing to throw a more nuanced/finesse ball that allows the Receiver to grab in stride and break away.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillies said:

FWIW - looking at the same data, Josh/Bills were second in the league in CAY/COMP (completed air yards per completion) at 6.5 yards. So in a way, the lack of YAC yards are somewhat made up by the fact that we're throwing the ball further down the field to begin with.

Agree. That does factor in for sure. They didn't run many screen type plays too often and the few times they did they basically never had any success. 

[Ray Stonada]

Gabe Davis and to a lesser extent McKenzie were on the bench for Sanders and Beasley.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 - Need more talent that can execute those routes and take off with it.

 

- Need play caller to scheme up and call those plays

 

- Need your QB to be able/willing to throw a more nuanced/finesse ball that allows the Receiver to grab in stride and break away.

I think the bold is the main thing

[BuffaloBillies]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Agree. That does factor in for sure. They didn't run many screen type plays too often and the few times they did they basically never had any success. 

 

Yep.

Team A: Screen pass that goes for 6 yards = 6 YAC

Team B (Bills): Throws the ball 6 yards = 0 YAC

 

End up at the same place, despite no YAC

 

[billsfan1959]

 

 

Of the top 20 QBs in passing Yards, Allen was last in the % of his total passing yards that came from YAC, and first in the % of his total passing yards that came before YAC

 

Allen (in relation to top 20 QBs):

8th in total passing yards

16th in total YAC

20th in YAC as a % of his total passing yards

3rd in Total yards prior to YAC

1st in Total yards prior to YAC as a % of his total yards

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by billsfan1959

[mushypeaches]

Did I miss the part of the discussion where we scored 483 points this year (3rd in the league)?

 

I don't really care how we get to the end zone, just how many times we get there

[Buffalo716]

The bills have plenty of guys who can get yac 

 

Diggs , McKenzie , Davis , Knox , singletary 

 

This is an offensive design thing by daboll not necessarily something they can't do

 

First Josh leads the league in air yards.. usually the higher the air yards the lower the yac..  

 

If Two quarterbacks averaged 12 yards per completion.. but one averaged 11 air yards per completion and one was eight... Obviously the guy with eight air yards per completion has more yac 

 

Also Josh's scrambling ability and ability to throw the ball to the boundary has an effect on yac..  how many times does he scramble outside the pocket and then throw a dart to diggs or Davis on the sideline for toe tap? A beautiful masterful play that leaves zero room for yac.. Josh does that multiple times a game 

 

Also the staple of dabolls short game was hitch routes .. digs, beasley and Davis and sanders run a bunch of five-seven yard hitch routes..  this is to set the defense up for the double moves and go routes later.. but there's almost zero room for rac in that route 

 

It was a schematic thing a bunch

Edited February 10, 2022 by Buffalo716

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

We don't run enough crossing routes and we use a lot of curl routes that end up with the receiver facing the line of scrimmage, making it difficult to break away from a defender that you can't see until you turn upfield. 

 

If it's true that Toney is available from the Giants, I would make that deal for a 3rd rounder.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Allen2Diggs

[LABILLBACKER]

14 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

Gabe Davis and to a lesser extent McKenzie were on the bench for Sanders and Beasley.

Exactly. Play Gabe and Isaiah more and call more crossing routes and screens. Beasley basically gets tackled Immediately and Diggs isn't much better.  Knox is not bowling people over like Kelce.  We absolutely can't be dead last in YAC anymore. 

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Exactly. Play Gabe and Isaiah more and call more crossing routes and screens. Beasley basically gets tackled Immediately and Diggs isn't much better.  Knox is not bowling people over like Kelce.  We absolutely can't be dead last in YAC anymore. 

Hopefully Dorsey/Kromer can design the screens much better too

[jletha]

Allens specialty is curls/comeback routes to the outside and deep crossers that almost always go out of bounds after being caught. Our screen game has been mediocre lately and Josh has never been much of a true go-ball thrower. So quick slant routes would be the best way to get YAC for us. Maybe Dorsey will unlock it, but with Josh being so good at other things Im not gonna get too upset about it. The 9 yards comeback route to Diggs is unguarable sometimes.

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

5 minutes ago, jletha said:

Allens specialty is curls/comeback routes to the outside and deep crossers that almost always go out of bounds after being caught. Our screen game has been mediocre lately and Josh has never been much of a true go-ball thrower. So quick slant routes would be the best way to get YAC for us. Maybe Dorsey will unlock it, but with Josh being so good at other things Im not gonna get too upset about it. The 9 yards comeback route to Diggs is unguarable sometimes.

Take that Mahomes-Hill 60+ yard TD.

 

Mahomes takes some off and throws a perfectly placed ball to hit Hill in stride while crossing right over the middle and Wallace looks to be in good position.

 

Now for Allen…does he make that throw?  I would lean…no.

 

I would say if he is going to throw that, it will be coming out way too hard and have a much lower % of duplicating the play Mahomes and Hill had.

 

But

 

i Still think Allen would make a play.  He probably pumps it, spins, tucks, and rumbles for a 30-35+ gain.

 

There are just other things he is top notch in that can supplement him not wanting to make that throw…but still achieving very good results l.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

The bills have plenty of guys who can get yac 

 

Diggs , McKenzie , Davis , Knox , singletary 

 

This is an offensive design thing by daboll not necessarily something they can't do

 

First Josh leads the league in air yards.. usually the higher the air yards the lower the yac..  

 

If Two quarterbacks averaged 12 yards per completion.. but one averaged 11 air yards per completion and one was eight... Obviously the guy with eight air yards per completion has more yac 

 

Also Josh's scrambling ability and ability to throw the ball to the boundary has an effect on yac..  how many times does he scramble outside the pocket and then throw a dart to diggs or Davis on the sideline for toe tap? A beautiful masterful play that leaves zero room for yac.. Josh does that multiple times a game 

 

Also the staple of dabolls short game was hitch routes .. digs, beasley and Davis and sanders run a bunch of five-seven yard hitch routes..  this is to set the defense up for the double moves and go routes later.. but there's almost zero room for rac in that route 

 

It was a schematic thing a bunch

 

 

While this is all true...........they really didn't have players who would be great at taking short passes for big yardage in 2021.

 

They really could use that kind of receiver to take some of the load off of Allen and to address the defense's that are better equipped to stop the Bills from succeeding with air yards.

 

In 2020 Daboll schemed John Brown that way...........his production in YAC was largely the difference between finishing 23rd in YAC in 2020 and being dead last in 2021.    They certainly missed that aspect during that 3-5 stretch where the OL wasn't giving Allen enough time to push the ball downfield.

 

But as I used to say to the people who would complain about the Bills lack of passing game under Anthony Lynn(despite being a top scoring offense and leading the league in big plays on offense)...........you can't throw a TD pass when you've already ran the ball into the end zone.

 

It's not like the offense isn't excellent.........there is just an area that clearly could be improved and it's not entirely a schematic issue. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

While this is all true...........they really didn't have players who would be great at taking short passes for big yardage in 2021.

 

They really could use that kind of receiver to take some of the load off of Allen and to address the defense's that are better equipped to stop the Bills from succeeding with air yards.

 

In 2020 Daboll schemed John Brown that way...........his production in YAC was largely the difference between finishing 23rd in YAC in 2020 and being dead last in 2021.    They certainly missed that aspect during that 3-5 stretch where the OL wasn't giving Allen enough time to push the ball downfield.

 

But as I used to say to the people who would complain about the Bills lack of passing game under Anthony Lynn.......despite being a top scoring defense and leading the league in big plays on offense...........you can't throw a TD pass when you've already ran the ball into the end zone.

 

It's not like the offense isn't excellent.........there is just an area that clearly could be improved and it's not entirely a schematic issue. 

 

 

I'll agree to that 

 

And I wasn't trying to say it was a schematic issue.. more like daboll schemed to the strength of his wide receivers 

 

Which is why we didn't see a lot of bubble screens , quick slants , drag routes .. typical yac routes.. daboll and Allen really like to work the sidelines

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillies said:

FWIW - looking at the same data, Josh/Bills were second in the league in CAY/COMP (completed air yards per completion) at 6.5 yards. So in a way, the lack of YAC yards are somewhat made up by the fact that we're throwing the ball further down the field to begin with.

Except that the Rams, Chiefs, and Bengals were all at the top with CAY/COMP too and they were also top with YAC while we were at the bottom. So the teams that went further than us were able to do more than we could.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I'll agree to that 

 

And I wasn't trying to say it was a schematic issue.. more like daboll schemed to the strength of his wide receivers 

 

Which is why we didn't see a lot of bubble screens , quick slants , drag routes .. typical yac routes.. daboll and Allen really like to work the sidelines

 

This was not an option in 2021

https://www.nfl.com/videos/smokey-and-mirrors-john-brown-scoops-screen-pass-from-turf-to-pay-dirt

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

This was not an option in 2021

https://www.nfl.com/videos/smokey-and-mirrors-john-brown-scoops-screen-pass-from-turf-to-pay-dirt

John brown was amazing at the jailbreak screen 

 

But something tells me Stefon diggs can run it too.. with his acceleration and wiggle he'd probably be deadly.. he was great in the screen game at Maryland 

 

But we just use him in other ways...  I would love to have that jailbreak screen option again.. when teams respect our play making ability and their 7 yards off.. that is the perfect option that Peyton Manning would take advantage of for a decade

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

 

While watching this year it seemed to me that we had far fewer YAC yards than the other contenders. When looking at Profootball Reference it was much worse than I thought .. we don't have the lowest YAC per completion of the contenders .. we have the lowest YAC per completion in the league 4.2 yards. The 49ers were tops at 6.6 followed by the Bengals, Chiefs, and Packers.  The net is the Chiefs ended up with about 1000 more YAC than the Bills (2728 to 1760).

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm - sort by "YAC / Cmp".

 

It seems that to some extent our receivers, backs, TEs are not great at making the 1st defender miss (though without data to back it up .. it always seemed like Diggs found ways to get extra yards. I think some of it is also on Josh as he seems to hit the recievers but they are not always positioned to make a move. If I were the Bills / Jordan Palmer .. that is what I would work on this coming year. The interesting thing is if you just give Josh 500 more YAC by the receivers .. he would have been 3rd in passing yards even though we had so many bad weather games.

 

Every team is trying to improve in all kinds of areas every year.   I think cherry picking one stat is pointless.  

 

The Bills were fifth in total yards and third in total points.  If they weren't low in YAC, they would have been low in some other stat.  

 

There can be all kinds of explanations why the Bills offense generates less YAC.  I don't really care about it if my team is leading the league, more or less, in scoring.  

 

Gabriel Davis caught four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  On three of them he had zero yards after catch.  Do I care?   

 

Yes, I agree, all things remaining the same, if the Bills had two yards more after the catch, they'd have the greatest passing attack in the league, maybe in league history.  

 

Defenses will evolve next season, as they always do.  The test, as always, is for the offense to evolve, too, and still be one of the most feared offenses in the league.  If they do that with yards after catch, great.  If they do by increasing yards per attempt and DECREASING yards after catch, great.  If they do it by throwing 65 touchdowns and have NEGATIVE yards after catch, I'm fine with that, too. 

 

It's just a stat that tells something about how the offense is working.  It isn't determinative of a great passing attack.  

[billybrew1]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBobs said:

I think some of this is likely because we are one of the leaders in air yards per completion. By design if you are throwing the ball further down the field you give the defense more of an opportunity to make a quick stop.

Problem identified and solved. There is no problem. Josh has a rocket arm.

[bubba2018]

Well replace Isaiah McKenzie with just about anyone and our YAC go up instantly. 

[Big Turk]

38 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Except that the Rams, Chiefs, and Bengals were all at the top with CAY/COMP too and they were also top with YAC while we were at the bottom. So the teams that went further than us were able to do more than we could.

 

Context is important.  Bills run a lot of deep overs where Allen hits them near the sideline and their momentum takes them our of bounds.  Also a lot of throws on the run along the sidelines and a lot of throws where they are facing Allen when they catch the ball.  

 

Basically, we don't run routes that are designed to maximize YAC, so why do you think they would be good at YAC?  

 

You would need to change the design of the offense to do that.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Context is important.  Bills run a lot of deep overs where Allen hits them near the sideline and their momentum takes them our of bounds.  Also a lot of throws on the run along the sidelines and a lot of throws where they are facing Allen when they catch the ball.  

 

Basically, we don't run routes that are designed to maximize YAC, so why do you think they would be good at YAC?  

 

You would need to change the design of the offense to do that.

I totally agree. It's not the players, it's a limitation of the scheme. Hopefully Dorsey addresses it.

[TH3]

2 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 - Need more talent that can execute those routes and take off with it.

 

- Need play caller to scheme up and call those plays

 

- Need your QB to be able/willing to throw a more nuanced/finesse ball that allows the Receiver to grab in stride and break away.

Need different pass routes

[klos63]

It's not a critical issue, but it's something that would make an already dangerous offense even more dangerous.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

 

While watching this year it seemed to me that we had far fewer YAC yards than the other contenders. When looking at Profootball Reference it was much worse than I thought .. we don't have the lowest YAC per completion of the contenders .. we have the lowest YAC per completion in the league 4.2 yards. The 49ers were tops at 6.6 followed by the Bengals, Chiefs, and Packers.  The net is the Chiefs ended up with about 1000 more YAC than the Bills (2728 to 1760).

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm - sort by "YAC / Cmp".

 

It seems that to some extent our receivers, backs, TEs are not great at making the 1st defender miss (though without data to back it up .. it always seemed like Diggs found ways to get extra yards. I think some of it is also on Josh as he seems to hit the recievers but they are not always positioned to make a move. If I were the Bills / Jordan Palmer .. that is what I would work on this coming year. The interesting thing is if you just give Josh 500 more YAC by the receivers .. he would have been 3rd in passing yards even though we had so many bad weather games.

 

 

 

YAC is not a receiver stat.

 

It's a receiver / QB / route stat.

 

All of those have a major effect. Let's not pretend it's only about the guy who is catching the ball.

 

And in our case, not a hugely important stat. The bottom line is simply this ... how many yards are picked up on each pass? Doesn't really matter how much of it is air yards and how much YAC. The point is how many yards are gained. Our offense is really effective and productive, particularly in the passing game. That's the key thing.

 

Teams that run a lot of screens get more YAC in general. Same with bubbles. We don't throw a lot of those.

 

Same with bombs and sidelines that are NOT back shoulders. Near the end of the year Allen had a few bombs that weren't back shoulders, but early he was over-throwing long balls. Much better to have Allen throw back shoulders or float it more so the receiver lets the DB back in the play but gets the long long completion.

 

This isn't a problem. It'd be good to get more but as long as the pass game is working as extremely well as it is, it's a secondary issue.

 

We're 11th in yards per completion. That's solid. Last year, 10th. Our pass game is extremely effective. That's the important thing. If we get more YAC, that'd be fine, but it's far from crucial.

 

 

EDIT: I see everyone's already said it better than I did. Great.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Thurman#1

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

  For crying out loud, he needs to quit completing passes in the end zone, it's killing his yac. 😉

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

YAC you say?

 

what is more important,

is getting 1st downs time after time.  

also

when you throw 3, 4, 5 TD’s in the EZ.  

 

YAC = 0.  
 

5 zeros lowers the AVG. 

 

STATS LIE.  

[Chandler#81]

Riiiigt.. cuz Allen’s 47 Touchdowns aren’t good enough. smh

[ColoradoBills]

On 2/10/2022 at 2:37 PM, Buffalo716 said:

John brown was amazing at the jailbreak screen 

 

But something tells me Stefon diggs can run it too.. with his acceleration and wiggle he'd probably be deadly.. he was great in the screen game at Maryland 

 

But we just use him in other ways...  I would love to have that jailbreak screen option again.. when teams respect our play making ability and their 7 yards off.. that is the perfect option that Peyton Manning would take advantage of for a decade

 

 

 

The YAC stuff does not interest me because of what has been stated already BUT.....

 

You make a good point on WR screens.  I don't know if it was Daboll's design or just poor execution, but the Bills leave a lot to be desired there.

Every time I see a WR screen coming they look telegraphed and slow to develop.  Would love to see that improved.

[schoolhouserock]

On 2/10/2022 at 3:10 PM, Buffalo716 said:

The bills have plenty of guys who can get yac 

 

Diggs , McKenzie , Davis , Knox , singletary 

 

This is an offensive design thing by daboll not necessarily something they can't do

 

First Josh leads the league in air yards.. usually the higher the air yards the lower the yac..  

 

If Two quarterbacks averaged 12 yards per completion.. but one averaged 11 air yards per completion and one was eight... Obviously the guy with eight air yards per completion has more yac 

 

Also Josh's scrambling ability and ability to throw the ball to the boundary has an effect on yac..  how many times does he scramble outside the pocket and then throw a dart to diggs or Davis on the sideline for toe tap? A beautiful masterful play that leaves zero room for yac.. Josh does that multiple times a game 

 

Also the staple of dabolls short game was hitch routes .. digs, beasley and Davis and sanders run a bunch of five-seven yard hitch routes..  this is to set the defense up for the double moves and go routes later.. but there's almost zero room for rac in that route 

 

It was a schematic thing a bunch

The bolded portion is a big factor. Josh and his receivers demonstrated elite boundary ability. How does a defense stop that? Those are great plays that kill YAC, but ultimately help extend drives and win games.

[ganesh]

On 2/11/2022 at 1:28 AM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Some has been play design and some is lack of speed. Maybe both get addressed with a new OC and personnel through draft/FA. 

This.   When McKenzie was on the field, he always got the extra yards after the catch.   

 

Also, Josh himself suggested in the offseason that he had to work on that aspect of his game.   It didn't improve as much as he expected.