AFC Playoff Picture

[Watkins101]

The AFC Playoff Picture is a mumbled mess with 13 teams still having a shot 3 weeks to go. No playoff berths have been clinched yet, and we’re in for a wacky few weeks. 
 

1. The Chiefs (10-4)

The chiefs currently hold the number one spot, but that could change quickly. They have been running into covid troubles and face 3 teams that will be fighting for playoff spots. Opponents :

Steelers (7-6-1)

Bengals (8-6) 

Broncos (7-7) 

Realistically could finish out with 0-3 wins to finish out the year

 

2.  The Pats* (9-5) 

The Pats* would clinch the division with a win this week over the Bills, but should they lose, they still could miss out on the playoffs given their recent history with struggling with the fish in week 17. Opponents:

Bills (8-6)

Jaguars (2-12)

Dolphins (7-7)

Realistically could finish out with 1-3 wins to finish out the year.

 

3.  The Titans (9-5)

Theyve struggled without Henry, and the colts have been catching up fast. They have a tough next couple weeks, and could easily find themselves 9-7. Opponents:

49ers (8-6)

Dolphins (7-7) 

Texans (3-11) 

Realistically could finish with 1-3 wins to finish the year

 

4. The Bengals (8-6) 

Arguably the toughest remaining schedule of the teams on this list. Opponents: 

Ravens (8-6)

Chiefs (10-4)

Browns (7-7)

Realistically could finish with 0-3 wins to finish the year

 

5. The Colts (8-6)

A team on the rise, with an interesting last few weeks. They face the cardinals next who looked amazing earlier this season, but just dropped one to the Lions, so it’s anybodys guess to see how that game will go. Opponents:

Cardinals (10-4)

Raiders (7-7)

Jaguars (2-12)

Realistically could finish with 1-3 wins to finish the year.

 

6.  The Chargers (8-6) 

One of the weaker remaining schedules, but still could drop a couple. Opppnents:

Texans (3-13)

Broncos (7-7) 

Raiders (7-7)

Realistically could finish the season with 1-3 wins

 

7. The Bills (8-6) 

Biggest game of the season coming up next week against the Pats. With a win, the division seems almost guranteed, with a loss, missing the playoffs is an all too real possibility. Opponents 

Pats* (9-5)

Atlanta (6-8)

Jets (3-11)

Realistically could finish the season with 1-3 wins

 

8. The Ravens (8-6) 

The only 8-6 team out of a playoff spot, they still have a solid chance, but with Lamar’s injury concerns, bad tiebreakers, and a tough schedule, it may be hard for them to make it. Opponents: 

Benglas (8-6)

Rams (10-4)

Steelers (7-6-1)

Realistically could finish the season with 0-3 wins

 

9. The Steelers (7-6-1)

A tough schedule, but they could still find their way into the playoffs if they go hot. Opponents: 

Chiefs (10-4)

Browns (7-7)

Ravens (8-6)

Realistically could finish the season with 0-3 wins

 

10. The Raiders (7-7) 

A schedule facing only other playoff hopefuls, with 3 wins, they likely make the playoffs, but it will be difficult. Opponents:

Broncos (7-7)

Colts (8-6)

Chargers (8-6)

Realistically could finish with 0-3 wins to finish the season

 

11. The Dolphins (7-7)

Earlier in the season, the playoffs seemed impossible, but after a hit streak, the fish now have a chance. Opponents:

Saints (7-7)

Titans (9-5)

Pats* (9-5) 

Realistically could finish the season with 0-3 wins

 

12. The Browns (7-7)

A tough schedule to finish out the year, they seem unlikely to make the playoffs, but a hot streak could quickly change that. Opponents: 

Packers (11-3)

Bengals (8-6)

Steelers (7-6-1)

Realistically could finish the season with 0-3 wins
 

13. The Broncos (7-7)

The last team with a shot at making it, would need some luck, but a hot streak to finish the year, facing only divisional opponents gives them a shot. Oppponets:

Raiders (7-7)

Chargers (8-6)

Chiefs (10-4)

Realistically could finish the season with 0-3 wins

 

The teams with the best odds of making the playoffs (in my opinion) are:

 

1. Chiefs 

2. Pats*
3. Bills

4. Colts

5. Chargers

6. Titans

7. Bengals

8. Steelers

9. Ravens

10. Dolphins

11. Browns

12.Raiders

13.Broncos

 

These are looking like they’re gonna be a crazy last few weeks, and I’m really excited to see how they play out. What are your thoughts on whose most likely to make the playoffs?

 

 

[Gugny]

"Realistically finishing with 0-3 wins" is really going out on a limb when you're talking about a bunch of teams with 3 games left.

[Special K]

I love how all the other playoff contenders have to play each other in the final two weeks while the Bills play Atl and the Jets....this is the Bills ticket to a playoff berth, IMO.

[thurst44]

20 minutes ago, Gugny said:

"Realistically finishing with 0-3 wins" is really going out on a limb when you're talking about a bunch of teams with 3 games left.

I think that's the point. Anything can happen, realistically, b/c those are the teams playing three teams who are at a similar level. Then again, it was just kind of a pointless stat to add, b/c given the Jags beating our team, the Lions beating the Cardinals and almost beating the Ravens, the Texans beating the Titans and almost beating the Patriots, it's clear anything can happen this season and all of them are realistically 0-3 wins the way things are going. The other point is the Bills have arguably the easiest path as the only team facing two opponents with losing records in their final three games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Thanks for the summary!

[Process]

I'm sorry to laugh, but this thread is basically you listing every team, who all have three games left, and saying they could win 0-3 games, lol.

 

At the end of the day, win out, win the division, let the rest fall into place. 

[Greg S]

7 hours ago, Special K said:

I love how all the other playoff contenders have to play each other in the final two weeks while the Bills play Atl and the Jets....this is the Bills ticket to a playoff berth, IMO.

 

The Jets game scares me a little. Yes I know they suck and the Bills are much better but they will want payback ( at least their fans will) for what the Bills did to them a few years back. The Bills prevented them from clinching a playoff spot by beating them on the final game of the year. I believe it was 2016. The NY media will definitely bring it up if the Bills need a win over the Jets so it will be in the players minds. Its their Super Bowl getting a chance to ruin a rival's season. They will play hard in that situation.

[djp14150]

7 hours ago, Process said:

I'm sorry to laugh, but this thread is basically you listing every team, who all have three games left, and saying they could win 0-3 games, lol.

 

At the end of the day, win out, win the division, let the rest fall into place. 

 

shh…it’s real deep analytic analysis.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

You see everything on this board from irrational hate of Bills players, coaches, and gameplans, to 'rah rah' rabid defending of idiotic decisions by players and coaches.  No reason to trash a five year veteran of the site who lays out the possibilities without hype or shading.

[BuffaloBillies]

There are about 25 instances above where 2 of the teams play each other, yet are shown in the individual team breakdown that they both could realistically go 0-3?

 

I mean, someone has to win these games. 

[CSBill]

Thanks for the detailed work Watkins. I like and generally agree with your "odds" list at the end.

 

With so many of theses teams facing each other over the next three weeks, this could go is all kinds of directions.

 

So, just win Bills, just win.

 

Win 3 - Division champs, 2-1 probably a 7 seed in the playoffs, 1-2 nope!

[Watkins101]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillies said:

There are about 25 instances above where 2 of the teams play each other, yet are shown in the individual team breakdown that they both could realistically go 0-3?

 

I mean, someone has to win these games. 

The 0-3 is wins to finish out the season, not the record. Most of these teams very possibly could finish out with 3 wins, 3 losses or somewhere in between.

[Billl]

This is the premium content I pay for.

[Greg S]

When its all said and done the 7 AFC playoffs teams will be IMHO.....Bills, Pats, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers. Don't know what the seeds will be and who wins the division or goes in as a WC. I feel pretty confident these will be the 7 teams. Ravens, Broncos OUT. Browns, Steelers would need to run the table and get help. I don't see that happening either.

[Watkins101]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

When its all said and done the 7 AFC playoffs teams will be IMHO.....Bills, Pats, Bengals, Titans, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers. Don't know what the seeds will be and who wins the division or goes in as a WC. I feel pretty confident these will be the 7 teams. Ravens, Broncos OUT. Browns, Steelers would need to run the table and get help. I don't see that happening either.

Steelers need help to get in if they run the table, but I think it’s highly unlikely they don’t get it. All they would need is for any one of  the colts, Bengals, Bills, or Chargers to drop one game. 

[Greg S]

Just now, Watkins101 said:

Steelers need help to get in if they run the table, but I think it’s highly unlikely they don’t get it. All they would need is for any one of  the colts, Bengals, Bills, or Chargers to drop one game. 

 

They have to play at KC this week. That will be a tough game to win even with covid hitting the Chiefs. I think the Browns lose at GB which would make them 7-8. Baltimore has a big one at Cincinnati. If the Bengals win ( I think they will especially if the Ravens are without LJ) then the Ravens are in trouble. I think only one team makes it from the North and that's the Bengals.

[Watkins101]

10 hours ago, Gugny said:

"Realistically finishing with 0-3 wins" is really going out on a limb when you're talking about a bunch of teams with 3 games left.

 

10 hours ago, Process said:

I'm sorry to laugh, but this thread is basically you listing every team, who all have three games left, and saying they could win 0-3 games, lol.

 

At the end of the day, win out, win the division, let the rest fall into place. 

The point of the thread is to show how jumbled the playoff picture is, and how any one of those 13 teams still has a way to make to the playoffs. When looking at the remaining schedule of the season, I was suprised by how much all these teams played each other and wanted to show that. All of those teams that could realistically win 0-3 games are playing 3 teams within 2 wins of themselves (aside from the Chiefs who are having some Covid issues). For the teams who face a team not in that range, I put 1-3, because while they still could lose out the season, I’d find it very unlikely. I wasn’t trying to go out on a limb, just wanted to show the remaining schedules of the teams were competing against for a playoff spot. Don’t know why half the people on the thread had to react negatively to that. 

[Hebert19]

Looking at everyone's schedule...if steelers beat a potentially under manned chiefs team and we win this weekend and sadly the number 1 seed isn't out of question.  Only stretch is Miami beating Tennessee but the way both teams are playing it could happen. 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

 

The point of the thread is to show how jumbled the playoff picture is, and how any one of those 13 teams still has a way to make to the playoffs. When looking at the remaining schedule of the season, I was suprised by how much all these teams played each other and wanted to show that. All of those teams that could realistically win 0-3 games are playing 3 teams within 2 wins of themselves (aside from the Chiefs who are having some Covid issues). For the teams who face a team not in that range, I put 1-3, because while they still could lose out the season, I’d find it very unlikely. I wasn’t trying to go out on a limb, just wanted to show the remaining schedules of the teams were competing against for a playoff spot. Don’t know why half the people on the thread had to react negatively to that. 

 

You mad, bro?

[Watkins101]

10 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Looking at everyone's schedule...if steelers beat a potentially under manned chiefs team and we win this weekend and sadly the number 1 seed isn't out of question.  Only stretch is Miami beating Tennessee but the way both teams are playing it could happen. 

For the bills to get the 1 seed, they’d have to win out while the chiefs lose at least 2(if they drop 3, then the chargers have to lose 1) and Titans lose 2 and Bengals lose 1 and Ravens lose 1 and colts lose 1. Possible, sure, but I don’t really see all that going our way.

[Belgium_Bill]

Thousands of permutations, yet for me it's fairly simple: if you can't beat the Falcons and Jets you have no business in the play-offs anyway so it boils down to this: beat the Pats and we're in, lose to the Pats and it will depend on the second placed team in the AFC North getting to 10-7 or not. 

There's a lot of interdivision games left in the AFCN and no gimme games whatsoever so I actually think that it is likely 10-7 will get us in, albeit as 7th seed. 

No panic yet across the Atlantic here 😉

[Success]

10-7 is just so iffy.  It will feel too much like our "better" drought years - watching the last couple of weeks and doing all kinds of crazy scenarios of who needs to win & who needs to lose.

 

It might come to that, but a win Sunday changes everything. Then, the biggest question is, "can they beat teams that they're supposed to beat, when they need to beat them?"  I'd rather spend the next few weeks talking about that.

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

4 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

The Jets game scares me a little. Yes I know they suck and the Bills are much better but they will want payback ( at least their fans will) for what the Bills did to them a few years back. The Bills prevented them from clinching a playoff spot by beating them on the final game of the year. I believe it was 2016. The NY media will definitely bring it up if the Bills need a win over the Jets so it will be in the players minds. Its their Super Bowl getting a chance to ruin a rival's season. They will play hard in that situation.

The Jets are trash.  Zach Wilson isn't beating us on a cold day in Buffalo.  He will be lucky to leave Buffalo in one piece.  That being said, they should play hard every week.  That's what they are paid to do.  

 

We need to put a beatdown on the Patriots this week.  We lose this game, we really are not a playoff team, and will have a real difficult winning one playoff game this year.  The game plan, the in game coaching, the effort and execution all need to be top notch this week.  We do that, we should win by at least 10 points.  If we are a Super Bowl contender (debatable) its starts on Sunday.

[FilthyBeast]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

It would be pretty Billsy to lose at home to Atlanta.😈

 

I wouldn't be shocked by this either especially if the Bills get destroyed in Foxboro which I suspect is going to be the case.

 

Falcons are also still in the playoff mix and have showed to be as consistent as the Bills in this season for the most part.

[Dr.Sack]

Looking at the numbers the focus has to be on beating New England. 

 

If the Bills finish 2-1, assuming a loss to New England, there are many scenarios where; Cincy, Baltimore, LA Chargers & Indy take the #4-7 seeds and the Bills are on the outside. 

 

Of the 8-6 teams, the Bills have the lowest odds of making the playoffs with a 2-1 finish, at 86%. 

 

As Josh Allen said last week, every game from here on out is a playoff game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan619]

5 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Looking at the numbers the focus has to be on beating New England. 

 

If the Bills finish 2-1, assuming a loss to New England, there are many scenarios where; Cincy, Baltimore, LA Chargers & Indy take the #4-7 seeds and the Bills are on the outside. 

 

Of the 8-6 teams, the Bills have the lowest odds of making the playoffs with a 2-1 finish, at 86%. 

 

As Josh Allen said last week, every game from here on out is a playoff game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I definitely believe the New England game is massive.

 

That said, there’s a reason that the Bills have a 74% chance of making the playoffs (according to this site) vs. Baltimore (56%) and Cincinnati (49%) having way less of a chance currently. The likelihood of the Bengals and Ravens going 2-1 is so much less because they have way harder schedules.

 

All this doesn’t matter if we win out though. So, let’s take care of business in New England and finish the season on a hot streak. We still control our own destiny. Take it, Buffalo!

Edited December 23, 2021 by BillsFan619

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I wouldn't be shocked by this either especially if the Bills get destroyed in Foxboro which I suspect is going to be the case.

 

stop being so scared. Bills are not getting destroyed. They could lose but destroyed? Come on. And if they do lose the team will not no show the following week against the Falcons. You worry more about a no show against the Falcons if the Bills do win this week. 
 

but finishing 10-7 with  the only remaining loss being out of conference would be the best 10-7 scenario we could ask for.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[patzen]

Patriots don't clinch the AFC East with a win this week unless the Dolphins lose. They would lose the division if the Dolphins win out, we lose one more game, and they lose to Jax and Miami.

[Reks Ryan]

6 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

The 0-3 is wins to finish out the season, not the record. Most of these teams very possibly could finish out with 3 wins, 3 losses or somewhere in between.

You wrote for all 13 teams that realistically they can win out the last 3 week.   Do you really believe that? I do not think this is realistic for the Broncos, Browns, Raiders, or Steelers.  It would be very surprising.  And it’s highly unlikely that the Dolphins, Ravens or Bengals win out.  
 

Maybe, we have different definitions of realistic.  Overall  good write up Nice reference showing schedules for all.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

28 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Of the 8-6 teams, the Bills have the lowest odds of making the playoffs with a 2-1 finish, at 86%. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the good thing is between Baltimore, Cincinnati and Buffalo, Buffal has bay far the best chance of going 2-1 or better. Just need one of those two to finish 1-2. And they play each other this week so we are halfway home already.

 

 

 

 

[JoshAllin]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Looking at the numbers the focus has to be on beating New England. 

 

If the Bills finish 2-1, assuming a loss to New England, there are many scenarios where; Cincy, Baltimore, LA Chargers & Indy take the #4-7 seeds and the Bills are on the outside. 

 

Of the 8-6 teams, the Bills have the lowest odds of making the playoffs with a 2-1 finish, at 86%. 

 

As Josh Allen said last week, every game from here on out is a playoff game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This cant be right, using this https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/ and putting in the 2-1 scenarios bills usually come out on top, unless denver goes 3-0

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Things get very dicey for the Bills if they don't beat NE. It would probably come down to begging the Rams to beat Baltimore or the Browns to beat Cincy. I don't have a great feeling about this.

[stuvian]

aside from the Chiefs we have no excuses against that sorry lot

[DapperCam]

Welp, the pipe dream of the #1 seed is pretty much dead with the Titans winning.

 

Maybe next year we won’t lay an egg against a team like the Jaguars.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I kind of wanted the Titans to win so KC has something to play for heading to Cincy in a week.

 

If Cincy beats Baltimore it looks like that Rams Vs Ravens game is huge for the Bills if they lose to NE. Ravens win and it's going to be tough.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

10 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I wouldn't be shocked by this either especially if the Bills get destroyed in Foxboro which I suspect is going to be the case.

 

Falcons are also still in the playoff mix and have showed to be as consistent as the Bills in this season for the most part.

No one result in the NFL should really shock anyone anymore. It's a single game, anything can happen. Other sports play 7-game series' for a reason.

[djp14150]

On tiebreakers….

 

for 11-6.

 

buffalo wins division.  They beat KC. They lose to indy, Cincy, tenn, and chargers in tiebreakers for sorting division seeking. Cincy and chargers are by conference record Baltimore is too close to call. It will come down to strength of victory tiebreaker. Baltimore will likely get the edge based on who they have to play.

 

if they are a WC at 10-7.  It depends on who they lose to.  If buffalo loses to the falcons then this helps sone tiebreakers. Cleveland and denver would have weaker conference records than buffalo by going 4-1 each against nfc. If baltimore loses afc and wins their nfc game then buffalo would have better conference record or if baltimore list to Pittsburgh Then better common game record.

 

buffalo will fall short on many tiebreakers for WC so they pretty much need a scenario where only 3 WCs are 10-7 or better.

 

as of right now you can have I believe 11 AFC teams at 10-7 or better.

 

 

 

 

[DapperCam]

So assume the Bills lose vs the Pats tomorrow and then win the final 2 games...

 

This puts the Bills at 10-7

 

Teams that will make the playoffs no matter what practically speaking: KC, Tenn, NE (division pretty much wrapped with win tomorrow)

 

That leaves the following contending for 4 playoff spots :

IND (LV, @JAX)

BUF (@NE, ATL, NYJ)
CIN (BAL, KC, @CLE)
LAC (@HOU, DEN, @LV)

BAL (@CIN, LAR, PIT)
PIT (@KC, CLE, @BAL) 

(I left out 7-7 teams LV, DEN, and MIA although they could possibly win out and have a chance)

I'm going to assume Indy doesn't lose out and Pitt doesn't win out. That leaves 3 playoff spots for: BUF, CIN, LAC, BAL.

Here are some scenarios:
- If any of CIN, LAC, or BAL go 1-2 or worse, we're in.
- If we end up in a 3-way tie with CIN and LAC (with BAL winning AFC North), we're out
- If we end up in a 3-way tie with BAL and LAC (with CIN winning AFC North)
    - If the BAL loss is to LAR, we're out
    - If the BAL loss is to PIT or CIN, we have the same conference record and it drops to common opponents
        - If BAL loss is to PIT, we're in
        - If BAL loss is to CIN, it comes down to strength of victory which depends on a million things
 

CIN and BAL play each other, so our big hope will be that the losing team in that match up loses again. For CIN our best chance would be KC. BAL will have 2 more tough matchups in LAR and PIT. I personally think we should root for CIN this weekend, because BAL has a tougher remaining 2 games and are more likely to drop another one IMO. This all also applies if the Bills win vs NE, but drop the final game vs NYJ (because that would be pretty Billsy).

So, depending on how things break we could be going into the final game of the season praying CLE or PIT win (or I guess JAX if IND drops their game next week).

Edited December 26, 2021 by DapperCam

[Scott7975]

On 12/23/2021 at 2:05 PM, FilthyBeast said:

 

I wouldn't be shocked by this either especially if the Bills get destroyed in Foxboro which I suspect is going to be the case.

 

Falcons are also still in the playoff mix and have showed to be as consistent as the Bills in this season for the most part.

 

Just checking on you to make sure your ok after your team lost this week.