The Firebaugh Kid Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I dont know it but at any rate, I say you 100% go for it every time. Why take the risk we don't get the OT coin toss? Or if we do then we have to drive all the way back down to just be in the same position. I wish we could have that qb sneak back and actually block. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerome007 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Often times, the Bills have used trick plays instead of sneaks... and well the OL is not that great at pushing people back. Still, I'm sure they get this at least 85% of the time. And IMO Josh "didn't slip" on his own, he ran into the opposing DL that wasn't blocked well enough! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 60% of the time it works every time 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I think someone posted 13/14 last night on similar situations with the one miss being a snap issue no idea if accurate but it was shared 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fasteddie Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. I can't remember one he was stopped on. Maybe one other time? 2 minutes ago, fasteddie said: I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. Leverage. He who gets lower wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Jerome007 said: Often times, the Bills have used trick plays instead of sneaks... and well the OL is not that great at pushing people back. Still, I'm sure they get this at least 85% of the time. And IMO Josh "didn't slip" on his own, he ran into the opposing DL that wasn't blocked well enough! said it in other threads but not sure how our scheme had mongo pushing right and then what appeared to be dawkins blocking a guy shading inside of him. And then josh going head to head with the most likely path he’d crash into without a bills jersey between them. will be curious to see a reply today less frustrated but still think we may have flubbed some assignments unless he really shockingly fast got off on the snap or dawkins was sleeping But it seemed like weird handoffs of assignments were happening with mongo at times earlier in the game Edited October 19, 2021 by NoSaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. He was 13 for 14 on 4th and 1 sneaks going into last night. The only one he didn’t get was a muffed snap in the opener of 2019. Flukey deal last night. That play is about as automatic for Allen as there is in all of sports 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) Edited October 19, 2021 by Buffalo_Stampede 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said: He was 13 for 14 on 4th and 1 sneaks going into last night. The only one he didn’t get was a muffed snap in the opener of 2019. Flukey deal last night. That play is about as automatic for Allen as there is in all of sports 0-2 last night. Should be automatic. OL was abused all night last night and really was just flat-out embarrassing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DasNootz Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) I agree it was the right call to go for it. Don't let the bad outcome cloud the decision making process. If you go to OT you're a coinflip to win. A QB sneak has well over a 50% success rate. The only things I would have done differently is not lined up in the shotgun first and had your FB in for the push. Edited October 19, 2021 by DasNootz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Back2Buff Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 They called the play the defense was expecting. Thats fine on any other play, than the last play of game. You can't be predictable in a situation when your line is getting abused all night. It was a terrible call. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) If he just went straight forward he would have had it. Left side of the line got blown up and that's where he wanted to go. It shouldn't have came down to that. We should have been up by multiple scores. We didn't execute Edited October 19, 2021 by Not at the table Karlos 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, fasteddie said: I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. I think it is a FO issue not a coaching problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 20 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: 0-2 last night. Should be automatic. OL was abused all night last night and really was just flat-out embarrassing. 0-2? Am I forgetting the other one? 16 minutes ago, mannc said: Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. Still had a T.O. Call was fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloFan68 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Next time we go up & over! Go Bills!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 52 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nfl/allen-bills-come-up-short-as-buffalo-coach-goes-for-win/2021/10/19/9585040e-309b-11ec-8036-7db255bff176_story.html "But Allen had converted an NFL-best 24 quarterback sneaks for first downs since 2018" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Gugny said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nfl/allen-bills-come-up-short-as-buffalo-coach-goes-for-win/2021/10/19/9585040e-309b-11ec-8036-7db255bff176_story.html "But Allen had converted an NFL-best 24 quarterback sneaks for first downs since 2018" Flukey play against an awful defense…. Blind squirrel finding a nut 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, mannc said: Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. No, we didn't. We still had a timeout. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapeBreton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Just now, Tommy said: No, we didn't. We still had a timeout. Then you have to convert yet another short yardage play against a defense that has been stopping you in the red zone all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArdmoreRyno Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: 0-2 last night. Should be automatic. OL was abused all night last night and really was just flat-out embarrassing. Yep My ONLY issue with that 4th and inches play last night was we ran the SAME PLAY on the goal line earlier in the game. It was 100% identical, Allen under center going left. He got blown up the first time when 3 Titan defenders crushed him. That's where he likes to go... so if I knew where he was going, they definitely had to know. Would have rather him handed it off to Moss on that last play. 5 minutes ago, Tommy said: No, we didn't. We still had a timeout. Yep. He makes it... spikes it with one or two more throws into the EZ (or even a run then a timeout) before the FG attempt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. I heard on GMFB that before the last night it was 13 of 14 successful QB sneaks of one yd or less Edited October 19, 2021 by JMF2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiseman3 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I just brought myself to watch the replay....my god Dawkins and Feliciano got blown up. Dawkins ended up a yard into the backfield. Not ideal for your franchise left tackle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBaumer Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Too bad they did not save the Buffalo Special play for that 4th and 1... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) Hes only ever NOT converted just one or two times on down and 1 or down and 2. I say "down" instead of 4th down because we have run the QB Sneak to pick up a first or TD on other downs as well. Great choice to go for it, and I love McD saying he will go with Josh 10 out 10 times there and has his complete trust. The mistake was by Dabol trying to be cute and tricky with the play rather than just lining up and running it with Josh above center. Neither him nor the OL really seemed dug in as a result of the attempt at confusing them. They didnt even give Josh a chance to hard count them. Line Josh up over the center from the get go and I believe they absolutely convert or get them to jump. Dabol needs to STOP trying to be slick in these moments and just run their best play. Edited October 19, 2021 by Alphadawg7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 49 minutes ago, mannc said: Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. I think I would have preferred that they try something that had a chance to score, myself. We had failed two previous "and 1" conversions (3rd and 2nd I think), one due to a Dawkins false start and one where Allen was stuffed. To me, how you're performing in a game should outweigh overall general statistics. 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Hes only ever NOT converted just one or two times on down and 1 or down and 2. I say "down" instead of 4th down because we have run the QB Sneak to pick up a first or TD on other downs as well. Great choice to go for it, and I love McD saying he will go with Josh 10 out 10 times there and has his complete trust. The mistake was by Dabol trying to be cute and tricky with the play rather than just lining up and running it with Josh above center. Neither him nor the OL really seemed dug in as a result of the attempt at confusing them. They didnt even give Josh a chance to hard count them. Line Josh up over the center from the get go and I believe they absolutely convert or get them to jump. Dabol needs to STOP trying to be slick in these moments and just run their best play. I don't know if it's true, but someone said that Allen always runs the sneak to the L of center. If true, IMO that's a coaching failure to either not change how he sneaks, or run a different play because with Barkley on the team the Titans D most certainly had the inside gouge on every detail of Allen's persistent tendencies 14 minutes ago, wiseman3 said: I just brought myself to watch the replay....my god Dawkins and Feliciano got blown up. Dawkins ended up a yard into the backfield. Not ideal for your franchise left tackle Dawkins is either still struggling to get back into shape post-Covid or still struggling with the work-life balance between football and "The Glamorous Life" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 21 minutes ago, ArdmoreRyno said: My ONLY issue with that 4th and inches play last night was we ran the SAME PLAY on the goal line earlier in the game. It was 100% identical, Allen under center going left. He got blown up the first time when 3 Titan defenders crushed him. This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't know if it's true, but someone said that Allen always runs the sneak to the L of center. If true, IMO that's a coaching failure to either not change how he sneaks, or run a different play because with Barkley on the team the Titans D most certainly had the inside gouge on every detail of Allen's persistent tendencies Yeah if true it certainly is a mistake with Barkley on the other side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 24 minutes ago, JMF2006 said: I heard on GMFB that before the last night it was 13 of 14 successful QB sneaks of one yd or less But how many of those 13 were against Jeffrey Simmons? What a monster... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said: Anybody know what his career success rate is? I'm not sure how to find that information but I'm willing to bet the analysis of the situation and previous success rate dictated the decision to go for it. Thing is, it's like asking what a guy's success rate is with asking a woman out on dates, finding out it's 80%, and thinking that therefore if he asks out Beyonce, Ariana Grande and Gal Godot out his chances of getting at least one yes is close to absolute. Every woman is different. Every sneak situation is different. An awful lot of his successful sneaks have come when there was no defender in one of the center-guard gaps because they weren't ready for a sneak. The Titans were ready. 1 hour ago, mannc said: Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. 50 minutes ago, mannc said: Then you have to convert yet another short yardage play against a defense that has been stopping you in the red zone all night. But with a first down and 18 seconds left and the clock stopped with that final timeout, you throw in the end zone and get a TD or an incompletion each time and you have probably three or four plays. It wasn't a brain fart at all, or at least not for that reason. If we'd been successful we'd have been just fine on time. Edited October 19, 2021 by Thurman#1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, fasteddie said: I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. I’m always hesitant to make that type of statement because, well, I’ll admit I’ve never been in the trenches trying to actually do it. But … you have a point. The offense knows the snap count. Other than a few Star type DTs, offensive lineman are generally bigger than their defensive counterparts, and their game is more about leverage. So I guess I don’t get it either. Anyone here who played on either side of the line who can explain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: I’m always hesitant to make that type of statement because, well, I’ll admit I’ve never been in the trenches trying to actually do it. But … you have a point. The offense knows the snap count. Other than a few Star type DTs, offensive lineman are generally bigger than their defensive counterparts, and their game is more about leverage. So I guess I don’t get it either. Anyone here who played on either side of the line who can explain? I haven't played on either side of the line but I know some physics. It's all about timing and positioning to obtain that leverage. The defense can know the snap count too, if the offense hasn't been changing it up. Then if they engage the OLman before the OLman gets in position to sustain leverage, it's advantage to the DL. It's the old F = m*A thing, if there's acceleration from the DL, the higher m is overcome. In this case, it looks as though the OL was blocking to the R, as though opening a space between the C and the G, as a form of misdirection while the QB heads for the LG-LT gap. But the defender knew what was coming and attacked to (our) L, closing the gap Allen needed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, fasteddie said: I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. That's not the problem. Go look at how the Titans lined up. They had a guy in each of the center-guard gaps and a guy between Feliciano and Dawkins, all really tight. They were running into a 2 on 3 for Feliciano and Morse. That tight, it was a horrible setup. Two 1-techs and a 3-tech on the left. The reason Brady has such a high sneak success rate is because when he sees the defense set up like that he audibles to something attacking somewhere else. Edited October 19, 2021 by Thurman#1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, mannc said: Should not have called for a sneak. We needed a play that had a chance to result in a TD, not just a first down with only 20 seconds left. Brain fart by Daboll/McDermott. Going for it absolutely the right call though. They didn't. Allen changed it to a sneak per McD's post game presser. Said he has the ability in those situations to call his own number so to speak, and that he trusts his judgement and had no issues with him trying it there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuncha Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 The left side of the O-line got completely blown up on that 4th down play. Would have been nice to see a wrinkle there rather than the predictable sneak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, fasteddie said: I have yet to figure out how offensive linemen who outweigh their opponents by 30 or 40 pounds continually get pushed back on running plays. Either the strength coaches need to do their jobs, or the line coaches need to look for another job. I'm thinking the latter. Unfortunately, McD wouldn't think of making changes that would make sense. We do not have a dominant OL by any stretch of the imagination. I would've loved to see 2 TE's on that play maybe allowing Josh an outside option but Knox was hurt. Get a 3rd TE Sean and stop with the FB nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: That's not the problem. Go look at how the Titans lined up. They had a guy in each of the center-guard gaps and a guy between Feliciano and Dawkins, all really tight. They were running into a 2 on 3 for Feliciano and Morse. That tight, it was a horrible setup. Two 1-techs and a 3-tech on the left. The reason Brady has such a high sneak success rate is because when he sees the defense set up like that he audibles to something attacking somewhere else. Makes sense. There’s a reason he’s the GOAT. [ducking for cover] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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