The end of excuses for defensive draft picks

[Playoff Win]

This past season a number of drafted players on defense didn’t perform up to expectations. 
 

Ed Oliver. Excuse: was playing out of position at one tech.

Harrison Phillips. Excuse: was recovering from injury. 
Tremaine Edmunds. Excuse #1: was compensating for bad DL play. Excuse #2: was too young.

A.J. Epenesa. Excuse: was a rookie. 
 

Most of the above excuses are pretty solid. That said, they all go away this season. By the end of the year we should know what we have or don’t have with all four players. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Cant disagree with much of that. Time for the youngsters to step up on D.

[Gregthekeg]

I think they are good excuses, I also think that this year is going to be huge for Edmunds to make/break it.  I suspect he will get the 5th year option, but just to get another year to see if he grows more before committing to him long term. 

[glazeduck]

I think Edmunds' biggest issue last year was playing hurt. Yes he's young, no the DL didn't do him any favors, but he also moved like he was playing at about 60% all season, I thought. I also wonder how much Milano being out impacted him. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, glazeduck said:

I think Edmunds' biggest issue last year was playing hurt. Yes he's young, no the DL didn't do him any favors, but he also moved like he was playing at about 60% all season, I thought. I also wonder how much Milano being out impacted him. 

 

Also kinda difficult to really thump with a messed up shoulder.

[glazeduck]

Just now, dneveu said:

 

Also kinda difficult to really thump with a messed up shoulder.

Definitely. You can also see how it'd be somewhat of a mental thing when coming downhill, too right? 

[HOUSE]

I will work on a whole new round of excuses before the season starts

[DrDawkinstein]

13 minutes ago, Gregthekeg said:

I think they are good excuses, I also think that this year is going to be huge for Edmunds to make/break it.  I suspect he will get the 5th year option, but just to get another year to see if he grows more before committing to him long term. 

 

While I wouldnt be surprised if they picked this up, they only have ~2 more weeks to decide. I believe May 3 is the cut off date.

[H2o]

Ed O was being played out of position, a lot. He didn't play terrible at the 1 Tech, but he's a disruptive 3-Tech. It was the main cause of him not being what we expected. This year will be different, but it is time for him to bust loose. 

 

Harrison Phillips was coming off of injury, but you saw him start to regain some of that pre-injury form as the season went along. The Baltimore game was likely his best all season. At this point though I see him as easily replaceable. Depending on how our draft goes he may not even make the team. Rooting for him to have a strong offseason and play well this year. 

 

Tremaine Edmunds' shoulder injury hampered him for most of the year. It's hard to play defense, shed blocks, and make tackles with one arm. At the same time it doesn't excuse his mental lapses and bad angles. I'd imagine we will pick up the 5th year option on him, but it all has to start clicking on the field or he's a 1 contract guy in Buffalo. 

 

Epenesa was a rookie who cut like 20lbs in the offseason and had no offseason program. No Mini Camp, no normal Preseason, and no Preseason games. He had to learn the NFL game and it's speed on the fly. You saw flashes, but the combination of everything clearly impacted his output. I expect a nice step forward this year because he showed some flashes. 

[DrDawkinstein]

 

 

How many Pro Bowls has Edmunds made? I know at least 1.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good OP!

As for Edmunds he played terribly against Baltimore and KC when he was supposedly fully healed. I am rooting for him because if he was truly a ProBowl level player he can anchor the defense for another 5-7 years. 

I just have not seen it. I have been critical of him for a while now.  To be fair I watched a 2020 highlight film and he did have a real nice goal line stop on a running play last year. I think it was San Fran or Denver game( I missed them both). Other than that I don't recall any significant plays he made all year.

Oliver has flashed. DTs take time to develop. Still think he can be a 8-10 sack guy from the interior.

Epenesa also flashed.

Harrison is just not good enough. He was a penetrating DT at Stanford not a guy that took on double teams. He may be a training camp cut if they draft 1-tech DT.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

How many Pro Bowls has Edmunds made? I know at least 1.

2

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

2

 

That's what I thought (and was afraid of).

 

So Edmunds will cost us $14.791M in 2022 if we trigger his 5th year option. Cap should be back up next year so I'm not too worried about that, but that number does make it a more interesting decision for Beane.

[eball]

I think you and @FireChans should go out for coffee. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's what I thought (and was afraid of).

 

So Edmunds will cost us $14.791M in 2022 if we trigger his 5th year option. Cap should be back up next year so I'm not too worried about that, but that number does make it a more interesting decision for Beane.

Yeah...the 5th year option is worth more than he is based on his play to this point.  But I’d still be shocked if they don’t pick it up.  

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah...the 5th year option is worth more than he is based on his play to this point.  But I’d still be shocked if they don’t pick it up.  

 

When you draft a kid who is barely 19, you gotta be ready to ride it out. It isnt my money, and I'd hate to move on too early. LBs do tend to get better and better over time as their pre-snap reads evolve.

[Blokestradamus]

I will be such a happy man when people can differentiate between an excuse and a reason.

[K-9]

I suggest reviewing the video of every Ed Oliver snap last season. 

[Patrick Duffy]

57 minutes ago, Playoff Win said:

This past season a number of drafted players on defense didn’t perform up to expectations. 
 

Ed Oliver. Excuse: was playing out of position at one tech.

Harrison Phillips. Excuse: was recovering from injury. 
Tremaine Edmunds. Excuse #1: was compensating for bad DL play. Excuse #2: was too young.

A.J. Epenesa. Excuse: was a rookie. 
 

Most of the above excuses are pretty solid. That said, they all go away this season. By the end of the year we should know what we have or don’t have with all four players. 

Yeah those picks have been a little disappointing. But I mean the Oliver pick was one of those that many/most if not every team would have taken that draft. I hear ya on the out of position talk with him. I'm sure that may be a part of it with him, but not sure how much.

 

I feel good about Espensa, may be in the minority, but I feel like he will start to be a good player soon. With Edmunds, some say he also out of position and needs to be outside. And as far as H. Phillips goes, I honestly didn't expect but so much out of him. Many thought he was/would be another K. Williams. I was not one of them.

 

Anyway, hope can get that good D player that makes an impact right away. Would be nice.

[skibum]

You forgot the one about Epenesa losing so much weight he no longer knows how to use his body or play football. 

[Matt_In_NH]

3 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

I will be such a happy man when people can differentiate between an excuse and a reason.

"Reasons" become excuses after multiple years.  At some point its put up or shut up.  I agree with the OP to a point but the defense as a whole played much better after the bye week and so all the players mentioned were a part of that.    Oliver stands out to me as underwhelming, he was supposed to be a playmaker, big plays have been limited.   

[Mr. WEO]

merge...

 

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's what I thought (and was afraid of).

 

So Edmunds will cost us $14.791M in 2022 if we trigger his 5th year option. Cap should be back up next year so I'm not too worried about that, but that number does make it a more interesting decision for Beane.

Edmunds is nowhere near a $15 mill player.  But Beane needs to decide whether Edmunds will make that jump this season to being that type of player in year 5.  I hope he becomes that if the Bills pick up the 5th year option.  But if I am the Bills I don't do it.  If he were on the Bills of yesteryear, he would not have seen the field on the Super Bowl era teams.  Or the teams of the late 90's when we had Sam Rogers, Sam Cowart John Holacek and Keith Newman.  All had more game then Edmunds.  I mean for you fans who remember the 90's era, is Edmunds even as good or better then say a Gabe Northern?  

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

When you draft a kid who is barely 19, you gotta be ready to ride it out. It isnt my money, and I'd hate to move on too early. LBs do tend to get better and better over time as their pre-snap reads evolve.

I agree.  I don’t feel like we can just let him go next year and hope we get a comp pick. While I’ve been one of his biggest critics, I’m also one of his biggest fans.  His ceiling makes him worthy of the 5th year option. We just have to hope that his play isn’t one of the reasons we don’t win a super bowl

[Blokestradamus]

2 minutes ago, mattynh said:

"Reasons" become excuses after multiple years.  At some point its put up or shut up.  I agree with the OP to a point but the defense as a whole played much better after the bye week and so all the players mentioned were a part of that.    Oliver stands out to me as underwhelming, he was supposed to be a playmaker, big plays have been limited.   

 

I don't disagree. The fact that we're still seeing the same talking points for Tremaine now that I noticed when he was a sophomore at VT is alarming. I don't think you can make excuses for poor reads when he's had 3 years of experience under what is talked up as one of the better developmental staffs in the league.

 

Harrison Phillips coming back from a major injury is a reason. ACL rehab is a B word, I've done it twice. I couldn't imagine getting shoved around by NFL linemen a year after my surgeries. A 3-tech not being as productive as you'd hope because he's having to masquerade as a space eater and having to play alongside people that struggle to complement him stylistically is a reason.

 

An offseason of rehab and Star coming back should fix those reasons. If not, they enter excuse territory.

[BADOLBILZ]

51 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah...the 5th year option is worth more than he is based on his play to this point.  But I’d still be shocked if they don’t pick it up.  

 

 

If it's the same as the franchise tag there isn't any reason to pick it up and guarantee his pay 2 seasons down the road..........just use the tag when the time comes due.

 

No value in taking the risk..........plus it dangles a carrot this year.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by BADOLBILZ
spelling

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I agree.  I don’t feel like we can just let him go next year and hope we get a comp pick. While I’ve been one of his biggest critics, I’m also one of his biggest fans.  His ceiling makes him worthy of the 5th year option. We just have to hope that his play isn’t one of the reasons we don’t win a super bowl

 

I'm 100% with you, and it makes discussing him so difficult. 🤣

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It it's the same as the franchise tag there isn't any reason to pick it up and guarantee his pay 2 seasons down the road..........just use the tag when the time comes due.

 

No value in taking the risk..........plus it dangles a carrot this year.

 

This... is actually a really good point.

[billsfan89]

There will be a lot of pressure on Ed, AJ, Edumonds and Phillips to step up. For one Phillips career here is on the line. I suspect they draft an NT in round 3-5 which will put a lot of pressure on him to justify his spot. Edumonds is likely also playing for his next contract, a bad year in a contract season is going to cost him money. AJ will need to justify his playing time this season as if he comes in with another down year he will not be handed any snaps in year 3 and it will be harder to come by. Ed needs to prove he is an elite player. He has justified being a starting caliber player which is good for development as he can stay on the field but he really needs to have that breakout season. 

 

I suspect they add 2-3 defensive players in rounds 1-3 which will give the defense even more young talent, but it is critical that the talent that is already on the defensive side of the ball step up.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It it's the same as the franchise tag there isn't any reason to pick it up and guarantee his pay 2 seasons down the road..........just use the tag when the time comes due.

 

No value in taking the risk..........plus it dangles a carrot this year.

Good point.  The franchise tag slipped my mind.  I figured it would have been much higher as Bosa and other “edge rushers” are technically LBs playing in a 3-4.  Wasn’t sure how that LB franchise that worked

[billieve420]

Edmunds is more of a finesse player not someone I normally like at middle linebacker. However, the D-line needs to do a better job of keeping the LBs clean. Our D-line was the biggest weakness last year. Will see how big of a difference Star makes if he is still the same player he was prior to taking year off. Drafting his replacement in the mid-late rounds is a necessity.

[Patrick Duffy]

13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It it's the same as the franchise tag there isn't any reason to pick it up and guarantee his pay 2 seasons down the road..........just use the tag when the time comes due.

 

No value in taking the risk..........plus it dangles a carrot this year.

 

This is exactly what they should do. And I believe it's very likely they do.

3 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

Edmunds is more of a finesse player not someone I normally like at middle linebacker. However, the D-line needs to do a better job of keeping the LBs clean. Our D-line was the biggest weakness last year. Will see how big of a difference Star makes if he is still the same player he was prior to taking year off. Drafting his replacement in the mid-late rounds is a necessity.

Yeah and when the Dline up front struggles, it trickles down to the LB's and makes it difficult for them. But there has been times when Edmunds made bad decisions and hopefully his instinct will get better as he continues to learn.

[DCofNC]

57 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's what I thought (and was afraid of).

 

So Edmunds will cost us $14.791M in 2022 if we trigger his 5th year option. Cap should be back up next year so I'm not too worried about that, but that number does make it a more interesting decision for Beane.

No, it’s an easy decision, he’s not getting that.

[Tcali]

The Bills  fans are famous for the 'playing out of position' excuse.  I dont believe  Oliver and Edmunds are bad players.I think they are very average. So the high  picks used for them were very bad decisions..Unless they are both playing out of position.

 

Put Oliver at DE and see if he is strong/fast enough to get push from the outside as well as contain the run. I think its obvious that he isnt going to  win many

sumo matches in the middle in an enclosed area against an O lineman who outweighs him by 50 LBs.

 

Edmunds doesnt have the body type for middle linebacker.Too top heavy.--Put him outside as well so he can use that speed .

 

[Chaos]

People that get paid money to evaluate these things selected Edmunds to the pro bowl.  I personally do not think he is excellent at football. It seems more likely I am wrong than the pros. But it is how I see it. 

[NickelCity]

Watching Ed next to a real 1-tech is close to what I'm most excited to watch this year. Star plus a solid rookie prospect at 1T and let Ed hunt.

[Captain_Quint]

20 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

Watching Ed next to a real 1-tech is close to what I'm most excited to watch this year. Star plus a solid rookie prospect at 1T and let Ed hunt.

I agree about him next to a real 1T, but I'm not sold on Star being that player anymore.

I'd be surprised if we saw Star commanding double teams, and less surprised if a rookie doesnt outplay him as the year goes on.

Hopefully I'm wrong about that and the year off did him some good. Because I do think Oliver suffered from playing out of position and also by subpar play at 1T this past year. 

 

[Success]

I was ready to be upset about this post based only on the title - but the content of the OP is fair.

 

Fortunately, I expect most if not all of those guys to come through this season.  If they all take the step that we'd expect, our defensive worries will be reduced significantly.  

 

We could be looking at a pretty young, pretty impactful defense. Which would really make me start think Beane is truly a genius.  

 

[dpberr]

IMO, the problems are the coaches when it comes to Oliver and Epenesa.

 

Ed Oliver was a pass rushing DT in college.  That's what he did well in college.  He was a Top 10 pick because he consistently got into the backfield.  The Bills disagree, obviously,  and have insisted on making Oliver a jack of all trades DT.  If Ed Oliver played in the old Jim Schwartz defense, he'd have double digit sacks annually.  

 

Epenesa never played a down as a linebacker in his high school or college career.  I have no idea what the Bills want Epenesa to do with all that weight loss.  He's for sure, no longer a lineman that's going to routinely beat tackles.  

 

I don't think Edmunds is bad at all.  He may not have had enough experience to do the best job at being the playcaller on the defense last year.    

[Tcali]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

No, it’s an easy decision, he’s not getting that.

i agree....only the redskins or cowboys would be stupid enough to pay him that

[SirAndrew]

2 minutes ago, dpberr said:

IMO, the problems are the coaches when it comes to Oliver and Epenesa.

 

Ed Oliver was a pass rushing DT in college.  That's what he did well in college.  He was a Top 10 pick because he consistently got into the backfield.  The Bills disagree, obviously,  and have insisted on making Oliver a jack of all trades DT.  If Ed Oliver played in the old Jim Schwartz defense, he'd have double digit sacks annually.  

 

Epenesa never played a down as a linebacker in his high school or college career.  I have no idea what the Bills want Epenesa to do with all that weight loss.  He's for sure, no longer a lineman that's going to routinely beat tackles.  

 

I don't think Edmunds is bad at all.  He may not have had enough experience to do the best job at being the playcaller on the defense last year.    

The entire Epenesa situation feels like the old square peg in a round hole deal. Our front office is incredible, but that doesn’t mean we can’t question things. I’ve always been very confused trying to understand what they want from Epenesa. I think people on this board underestimate how much he’ll need to overcome to become a good NFL player. The guy needs to learn more than the average young player. He needs to learn the NFL game AND how to play the game in his new frame, along with a new position. That’s a lot to ask from someone.