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Anyone interested in Jonnu Smith? EDITED He signed with the Patzies. they over paid


PrimeTime101

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1 minute ago, mathja said:

I’m getting a Charles Clay vibe. I don’t know if that’s off-base. They both seem like athletic undersized tight ends. 
Clay probably got paid more than what he was worth to the team those few seasons.

 

Clay also dealt with any issues. Bottom line, is John Smith on the rise, or have we already seen the best of him?

I am wondering what a 26 year old Clay would of done with THIS QB. One would argue 100% more then what QB's he played with prior.

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1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

So I hear ya and you changed your tune on the money thing which is ok for me I guess but What corner or Pass rusher can we get for 8 mil or less (what people think Jonnu will get) that would be impactful ?

I didn't change my tune. I said Jonnu would get top dollar. And I think he will. There are certainly ways that the Bills could make that work. I just don't think it is advisable. I'd rather have Hunter Henry if I was forced to sign a top TE.

 

I don't think the Bills are going to be able to sign a top pass rusher. I think that is going to be left to developing the talent we have (AJ Epenesa, for example) and drafting guys. For Corner, again, I don't think they can sign a top guy. But perhaps they can find a guy better than Levi Wallace, and I would draft one high.

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Jonnu Smith's numbers by year (year, rec., yds., TDs):

 

2017   18-157-2

2018   20-258-3

2019   35-439-3

2020   41-448-8

 

Gerald Everett's #s:

 

2017   16-244-2

2018   33-320-3

2019   37-408-2

2020   41-417-1

 

Dawson Knox's #s:

 

2019   28-388-2

2020   24-288-3

 

They play in very different offenses. You could make a case that Knox is further along in his development than Smith or Everett were at the end of their 2nd year. I was interested in Smith when first learning about him being a free agent, now I am thinking more that Knox is on the right path. 

 

Is 45-450-5 realistic for Knox this year and is that enough from the position given the other weapons/options? I look at passing yards breakdown like this (presuming all healthy) in 2021:

 

Diggs 110-1350-8

Beasley 80-900-6

Davis    55-800-6

Other WRs  40-400-4 (hope McKenzie is part of it)

RBs   50-400-3

TEs  55-550-7

 

That's 390-4,400-34, pretty close to 2020. Add in a better run game and it's high-powered offense again. My point is that the $8 million or so to bring in Smith probably does not align with the value. I don't think him or Everett come in and has a 65-700-8 season. 

 

If the Bills can get 100-105 receptions for close to 1,000 yards and 10 TDs from the RBs and TEs that will diversify the offense enough and still get the WRs, their best position group in terms of weapons, the requisite touches they need for the offense to be near the top of the league again. 

Edited by jwhit34
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Just now, MJS said:

I didn't change my tune. I said Jonnu would get top dollar. And I think he will. There are certainly ways that the Bills could make that work. I just don't think it is advisable. I'd rather have Hunter Henry if I was forced to sign a top TE.

 

I don't think the Bills are going to be able to sign a top pass rusher. I think that is going to be left to developing the talent we have (AJ Epenesa, for example) and drafting guys. For Corner, again, I don't think they can sign a top guy. But perhaps they can find a guy better than Levi Wallace, and I would draft one high.

doesnt matter now HE signed with the patzies lol

 

 

Lock it mods lol

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2 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

doesnt matter now HE signed with the patzies lol

 

 

Lock it mods lol

And he got paid big time.

 

But the TE position is super important in NE. And they have cap space.

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4 minutes ago, 947 said:

Titans attempted 485 passes last year (bottom 3rd of the league), Bills attempted 596 (3rd in the league). I'd have to assume he'd have more opportunity with us.

 

That Didn't stop AJ Brown and Corey Davis from both being top 20 receivers in yards.

 

Also,  I find it concerning that Jonnu barely outproduced their second string tight end Firsker. 

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Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

Wow that a lot of money for him.  Not good to see the TE market opening this high.  

NO its not. This changes everything. we are going to have to settle this year with Knox

Just now, MJS said:

Cam Newton is not, though.

the right team over payed.. As much as I wanted him. he does not scare me

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21 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Possible, yes and again -- I'd LOVE to see it. I just think the athletic TE is too big of a trend in the league right now for him to come to a team that has to do a whole bunch of cap karate to even get in the discussion, ya know? His agent's job is to get him top dollar, so he would have to really want to come to Buffalo, and I feel like we would've heard something about that by now. 

I do think that it’s entirely possible that he takes a short term (1-2 years) deal in a pass heavy offense to get his stats up before the salary cap jumps back up. It’s unlikely, but not entirely unexpected or irrational. 

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1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said:

He is a good player.  He is not a player that makes a large difference in a wins and losses.   Very few tight ends do.

 

NE literally dominated the division with TEs for years.  They make a huge difference in that offense.

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1 minute ago, nbbillsfan said:

That Didn't stop AJ Brown and Corey Davis from both being top 20 receivers in yards.

 

Also,  I find it concerning that Jonnu barely outproduced their second string tight end Firsker. 


Yep. I didn’t get the hype with this guy.

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  • PrimeTime101 changed the title to Anyone interested in Jonnu Smith? EDITED He signed with the Patzies. they over paid
38 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Both Henry and Smith are going to be out of our price range, unfortunately.

 

I think Rudolph or trading for Njoku are probably our best bets, barring Feirmuth dropping to our 2nd rd pick...

4 yrs, $50MIL... as I said, he was out of our price range...

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1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

NO its not. This changes everything. we are going to have to settle this year with Knox

the right team over payed.. As much as I wanted him. he does not scare me


Never ever would I have thought Jonnu would get that much.  Major over pay IMO, and now the TE market may have just gotten a lot more expensive at the top of the FA group than even expected.

 

My guess has always been that if we make a move at TE it was more likely Beane would trade a 5th for someone like Ertz, Howard or Njoku...or wait until the FA market settles and then target a veteran who can help develop Knox more.

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Just now, Alphadawg7 said:


Never ever would I have thought Jonnu would get that much.  Major over pay IMO, and now the TE market may have just gotten a lot more expensive at the top of the FA group than even expected.

 

My guess has always been that if we make a move at TE it was more likely Beane would trade a 5th for someone like Ertz, Howard or Njoku...or wait until the FA market settles and then target a veteran who can help develop Knox more.

yea at this price setting the market for TE.. I think its not in the conversation any more. we will settle with Knox. Just a gut feeling now

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4 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

NO its not. This changes everything. we are going to have to settle this year with Knox

the right team over payed.. As much as I wanted him. he does not scare me

One TE signs and now we have to settle for Knox?
 

Didn’t you say, just minutes ago, that some players might want to play for a ring....

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1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

yea at this price setting the market for TE.. I think its not in the conversation any more. we will settle with Knox. Just a gut feeling now


I still think a trade is very much possible, as well as a quality veteran in FA at an affordable price once the top range gets over paid.

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1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

J Smith is too expensive.   Doesn't look good for Hunter or Ertz now.

 

Bummer because I wanted the Bills to get a veteran TE.   Hope it doesn't price us out of a Rudolf/Everett/Howard type.

 

My new hope is trade with Cleveland for K Hunt and Njoku.

 

 

Do we settle for Hunter?

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