Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?

[Don Otreply]

Being that player value is always subjective from team to team, and pick to pick, the best we can hope for is for Beane to be Beane and enhance the team with whatever action he takes. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

15 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

An argument can be made all these were BPA as well.  

 

We already had a HUGE chunk of cash invested in our DL when we drafted Epenensa.  He wasn't even active in his first NFL game.  How is that a "need"?

We had two RB's ahead of Singletary.

Jordan Phillips was our starting 3 tech when we drafted Oliver.

You can see in the Bills War Room how much Beane loved Ford.  

We traded up for Edmunds because they loved him as well.  Lorenzo Alexander on WGR said when he spoke to Beane about it, they had Edmunds above Roquan Smith.  You don't trade up to just fill a need in the first round,  you trade up for someone who is high on your board.

 

Just because you draft someone to improve a position doesn't mean it's a need.   

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

[PrimeTime101]

33 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

I am not convinced we let williams go. There is plenty of places and things to do to keep williams. We cant go creating to many holes to fill by a rookie.  Williams had a great season... im not the one to just let him walk.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Would trading out for a proven veteran be the best strategy due to the uncertainty of  the lack of scouting, no combine etc etc due to COVID? Not saying the Bills should, just asking if they should.

 

 

No. 

 

In a year when we have little cap space, it doesn't make much sense, unless the salaries are low, and it's unusual to get a good player with a cheap veteran contract, partly because the other team doesn't want to let them leave. Trading for vets is generally a more expensive way to go. Not the year for that.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Really depends on Milano and possibly watt. If the bills get neither and don't get a plug and play LB in FA I think you have to go after the ND LB if he slides, or if collins from Tulsa get to us. But I would not be surprised at all if our rd 1 and 2 picks are LBs. Because after edmunds play this year can/ will beane pay edmunds a massive contract? cuz someone else will. Might be in this same situation again, forced to go LB instead building somewhere else.

 

 

If Milano goes, that'll even further increase the already good odds that Edmunds stays. It might be hard to pay two LBs big money. If we're not paying Milano, paying Edmunds will be less painful.

 

As for picking LBs in the first and 2nd this year? That would be a massive surprise. One? Certainly very possible, especially if Milano goes. Two? Really unlikely. We have other needs.

[BigBuff423]

21 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Name one BPA pick?

He drafted Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Singletary, Moss, Epenesa, Ford, and Knox in the first three rounds the last two years. Every pick was a need pick and in many cases he traded up to get the pick.  Maybe Singletary you could argue was BPA because they had Shady, Gore, and Yeldon on the roster but even then given their ages RB was a need. 

Just because Beane states his philosophy for the media doesn’t mean he actually follows it.

 

I'll disagree because when you start with Allen, you've already lost me. If you can't see how QB is an outlier in any given year and the fact that unless you have an Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, etc. that it is ALWAYS an area where you're looking to upgrade then there's nothing anyone can say with regard to logic. As for Edmunds, Beane said he didn't think he'd be there at 16 so he went up and got him. Oliver some argued that year could have gone in the top 5 and that he might have been the most talented defensive player in the entire Draft making his value pretty obvious. Singletary you've already conceded that one, Moss led the FBS in broken tackles and some projected him to be a low 2nd Rd pick and dropped because of his 40 time at the Combine - which he ran with a hamstring injury. Epenesa was being mocked IN THE FIRST ROUND and again, Beane called him and said he had no idea what other teams were thinking but were glad to get him and Knox, again was similar to a Singletary pick. The Bills had Clay, who did almost nothing for the team despite a huge contract handed out by the incompetent Doug Whaley, Jason Croom, and Keith Towbridge - all in a year when Beane said they were dumping salary and eating Dead Cap money and hitting the reset button. Of course the team "needed" a TE, but it's not like he over-spent on Draft value for Knox. As for Ford, did you forget that Beane went and spent a bunch of money and assets on the Offensive Line following the 2018 season? Mongo, Morse, etc. were all FAs because Beane and the team knew Offensive Line was an issue and mixing in a Rookie on a line of Vets makes huge sense especially when Beane really believed(s) Ford is a long-term solution somewhere on the line and said after the Draft Ford was graded higher than where he was Drafted and were holding their breath when Carolina traded in front of them to take a different lineman. Can Beane be exaggerating? Of course he can, but it's up to you and all of us to determine IF we believe him. Given his forthright answers to the media thus far and handling some tough questions since he's arrived, I choose to believe him. You may not and that's certainly your prerogative but given the information presented, I'm going to say that he primarily attacks needs in FA and uses BPA overall. I did say in my post that it generally applies and if you're going to make an argument that it doesn't, I'd say you have a valid point in Knox and that's about it IMO.

 

We're talking about Draft, but also if you look at the team deficiencies in 2017, '18, & 2019 and then followed the Free Agency signings, I think it's clear and obvious what Beane is doing: he's taking as many needs as possible off the table to pursue their best player at each Draft position.

 

However, you've also conveniently left off the fact that the team had Cordy Glenn but Drafted Dawkins and that was AFTER Whaley gave Glenn a huge contract, Drafted Fromm merely from a value perspective, Drafted Bass based on value in the 6th Round despite having Hauschka (sp?), and Drafting Dane Jackson again based on value. When you consider Phillips, T. Johnson, Darryl Williams, Siran Neal, Tommy Sweeney (who missed this year but showed promise at the end of 2019) and others not to mention Wyatt Teller who had a monster season for the Browns, I'd say Beane has shown he can draft well and "generally" uses value to determine his pick as opposed to reaching for a need. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

21 hours ago, NewEra said:

First preference is to trade back.

 

If Pitts, parsons, or waddle slip to 20ish, I’d consider trading up.  If Kadarious Toney, Zaven Collins, Kwity Paye are there when we’re 1-4 picks away, I’d consider trading up.

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

Great addition to the list. I second that motion.  He’d be perfect for this team.  The raiders just seem too perfect a fit, I can’t see them passing on him

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

This. I'd add Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to your list for potential trade ups, but agree on trading up for a big time playmaker. If no one falls, I think the smart move is to trade back from #30. Rounds 2-3 are really deep with talent this year and I wouldn't mind trading back once or twice to get extra picks. 

 

 

Correct. I’m guessing that the front office approaches EVERY draft with both moving up and moving back in mind. These decisions are made on the fly depending who’s offering you what and who’s still on your board. 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Obviously your likelihood increases of hitting on a good player the higher your picks. That goes without saying.

 

The percentage of 1st round picks actually panning out is close to 50% and it gets lower in subsequent rounds. You need draft picks to build a complete roster, but I think people tend to overrate them on the board.

And obviously some franchises have demonstrated a better job drafting than others....I just think people overrate draft picks a bit. A little different scenario, but I’m sure your opinion on how the Rams are building their team is ass backwards.... but they’ve been a very successful team the past 3 years. Going to the SB in one of them and again mortgaged their future draft picks already this offseason.

 

I think you overrate Beanes drafts to this point. He hit a grand slam with Allen. That’s really been his one great pick.(And absolutely huge one)This team isn’t even close to the AFC Championship if Allen doesn’t play MVP level this past season.

 

Your other examples.....Edmunds is solid but he has his fair share of struggles and is not a playmaker whatsoever.  He’s probably the most inconsistent player on the team and often looks lost. Phillips was coming on last season after starting the season terribly  before improving at seasons end. Another meh player to this point. Johnson is a solid find. Singletary had a strong rookie season and looked completely lost this past season at times. Moss was coming on at the end of the season. Again, both are pretty meh players. 
 

In no way does mortgaging a 3rd round pick to move up to mid 20s hurt this team going forward. That’s ridiculous, IMO. 

 

 

 

Well, if it goes without saying then how come you disagreed with it? You said it was a crapshoot. Now you say it's not. I guess it goes without saying it's not a crapshoot. I guess it's at least good that you've got it the second time around.

 

It's ridiculous to think we're overrating Beane's drafts at this point, ridiculous.

 

I didn't say he's been superb, just that he's been very good. And he has. Again, his one draft that's been three years in the league has Josh Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson in the 4th, and Wyatt Teller in the 5th. The worst of that bunch are solid picks and there are also several excellent values there. And again, yeah, the values do include Allen. And the fact that you don't think Wyatt Teller in the 5th was a terrific pick at this point says more about you than about Teller.

 

And kid yourself about Edmunds if you must - many apparently must - but he's a two-time Pro Bowler at age 22 that the Bills absolutely love, a central figure on a defense that's been very good since he got here, except for the time when Edmunds was injured early in the season. He's a great pick. Not a huge value, but a really solid pick. And Harrison Phillips when healthy has been good and solid for a 3rd, getting quite a bit better later in the season this year as he got his strength back and beginning to look like his pre-injury self.

 

That's a really good class in the only year that's been in the league long enough to give a good idea what their potential is.

 

The rest are too young to fully judge, especially after a year without a real offseason, but there are a bunch of guys who so far look like solid gets in Oliver, Epenesa, Moss, and Singletary (2nd in the league in YPA his first year, there's every chance that's a line issue in the run game)  and a bunch of them who look like real bargains in guys like 6th rounder Johnson, 7th rounder Sweeney, 7th rounder Dane Jackson, 6th Tyler Bass and 4th Gabe Davis.

 

And a bunch who we haven't seen enough of yet to know for sure in Ford, Hodgins, and Knox.

 

And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team.  You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Albany,n.y.]

19 hours ago, TPS said:

Sammy Watkins says hello...

When you trade up, you have to do it with some degree of sanity.  I trust the Bills management not to do something as crazy/stupid as trading up for a player when they can get a comparable or better player in their original draft slot.  Beane & his scouts do a lot of work on their high picks.  I don't believe Beane would have ever made that trade, nor would he have traded back into the 1st round for JP Losman, John McCargo, etc. 

 

You have to have competent management whether you're trading up or down.  The Bills didn't have that for almost the entire time of the drought.  Donahoe looked good on paper when he was hired, but was very mediocre.  The Levy, Brandon, Nix & Whaley terms were draft disasters. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

When you trade up, you have to do it with some degree of sanity.  I trust the Bills management not to do something as crazy/stupid as trading up for a player when they can get a comparable or better player in their original draft slot.  Beane & his scouts do a lot of work on their high picks.  I don't believe Beane would have ever made that trade, nor would he have traded back into the 1st round for JP Losman, John McCargo, etc. 

 

You have to have competent management whether you're trading up or down.  The Bills didn't have that for almost the entire time of the drought.  Donahoe looked good on paper when he was hired, but was very mediocre.  The Levy, Brandon, Nix & Whaley terms were draft disasters. 

@Aussie Joe provided a couple other examples under McBeane, Zay and Cody.  I simply disagree with the generalization about trading up vs trading back.  It's all about the specific situation, not a general rule that one is better than the other.

[Royale with Cheese]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fair argument especially with the Epenesa pick. I guess its perspective.  The Bills had no other player capable of playing MLB on the roster when they drafted Edmunds. When they drafted Knox, Kroft and Croom were the only TEs on the roster.
If the Bills lose Williams you don’t think OT will be taken in the first or second round? 
And like someone else posted, I have no idea where the Bills grade these players. Did McD let Gilmore walk, trade down, and White was magically the BPA on their board when they had a gaping hole at CB? 

If Williams walks then if there is a RT with a high grade....I’m sure they’ll take him.

 

I fully expect them to sign at least one vet to compete for a job that’s starting caliber.  

[Tipster19]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:
 

I think the Edmunds debate has been discussed an infinite amount of times here. He is a 2x pro bowler because the conference is incredibly void of middle linebackers. If the guy was on the Carolina Panthers, he wouldn’t even sniff the pro bowl with all the LBs in the NFC. Hell, we watched two of them in David and White in the SB who you could instantly see Edmunds isn’t in the same world of. He’s a solid player, who is madly inconsistent and lacks instincts, the reason he never makes big plays. 
 

I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been thinking the last several weeks, especially watching Devin White, how much I would love to see a snot, slobbering maniac for a MLB. As great as Luke Kurchly was he struck me being passive and now I see the same the same tendency with Edmunds. Now Devin White, he’s the kind of MLB that would make this defense go. How about a position change for Edmunds? He has the athletic ability and measurable to be an edge rusher. If Watt does end up in Buffalo him and Hughes would be great mentors to learn from. Edmunds and Epenesa would be great in a rotation, relieving Watt and Hughes. Next question would be who could replace Edmunds at the MLB position? Could AJ Klein be a good replacement or would the Bills have to go outside of the organization to get that position filled? 

[Victory Formation]

Here’s a mock I did on PFN Mock Simulator. Initially traded back, picked up a 2nd and 3rd and then moved up a few times.

 

BUF
51. Carlos Basham Jr.
EDGE Wake Forest

 

BUF
61. Jabril Cox
LB LSU

 

BUF
67. Jay Tufele
DT USC

 

BUF
91. Quinn Meinerz
OC Wisconsin-Whitewater

 

BUF
119. Tedarrell Slaton
DT Florida

 

BUF
125. Ben Cleveland
OG Georgia

 

BUF
133. Jack Anderson
OG Texas Tech

[Sherlock Holmes]

Trade up for Friarmouth after trading our 1st for McCaffrey.

[YoloinOhio]

Baby got BACK

[Albany,n.y.]

20 hours ago, TPS said:

@Aussie Joe provided a couple other examples under McBeane, Zay and Cody.  I simply disagree with the generalization about trading up vs trading back.  It's all about the specific situation, not a general rule that one is better than the other.

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

 

[buffaloaggie]

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

[TPS]

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

Yeah, that's why I stated "McBeane". However, your point was about trading back vs trading up, not who is doing the picking.  I don't think it's controversial to say the choice is dependent on the situation.  If you have a group of say 6-7 guys with similar grades, and you don't have a specific positional need, I'm sure Beane would not hesitate to make a move back to pick up additional assets and still get one of the guys in the group. 

 

The real issue in your example is the Bills (Buddy) were desperate to find a "franchise" QB in a terrible QB class--it was either EJ or Geno Smith.  The Rams took Tavon Austin with the Bills' pick, and the Bills were able to get Kiko and M Goodwin with the additional picks from the trade.  Maybe they should've taken a someone like OT Pugh at 16 and stuck with Fitzpatrick? There were some decent players at pick 8, but picking up 3 starters by trading back and keeping Fitz "could" have been a good strategy back then.   Hindsight...

 

 

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

As I've been arguing, it is always situation dependent. The biggest determinant this year will be whether or not Beane can work any magic with FA.  If you lose Milano or Williams, then you have a big hole or two to fill, and you will be forced to think about need instead of BPA.

 

This will be a very interesting draft given the difficulty from a Covid season, so I won't be surprised if team grades are all over the place, and a prospect the Bills really like is there at 30.  I do agree with you, however, there is a lot of talent to be had in R2 and into R3, but I wouldn't trade back if there's someone there they really like.

[Nextmanup]

On 2/23/2021 at 12:07 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

Trading back is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Number of picks trumps ranking of picks IMO.

 

Give yourself more spins of the wheel to hit on some great players.

 

 

[glazeduck]

On 2/22/2021 at 9:31 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Because of the pandemic this whole season was upside down. Most college players have less tape to go off of. Draft picks this season will be much riskier. 

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. 

 

While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.

Edited February 25, 2021 by glazeduck

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 2/24/2021 at 4:44 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If Milano goes, that'll even further increase the already good odds that Edmunds stays. It might be hard to pay two LBs big money. If we're not paying Milano, paying Edmunds will be less painful.

 

As for picking LBs in the first and 2nd this year? That would be a massive surprise. One? Certainly very possible, especially if Milano goes. Two? Really unlikely. We have other needs.

I agree that it's unlikely that we go LB 1 and 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did (if Milano walks). McDs defense depends so heavily on LBs and I just don't see beane and mcd paying big money for edmunds that played decent at best this year, and got absolutely toyed with by mahomes. We will have to get Milanos replacement this year, and we could bring up edmunds replacement as well. Going into 2022 with two solid LBs on cheap rookie deals, instead of having to exercise edmunds or pay premium for a FA.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I agree that it's unlikely that we go LB 1 and 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did (if Milano walks). McDs defense depends so heavily on LBs and I just don't see beane and mcd paying big money for edmunds that played decent at best this year, and got absolutely toyed with by mahomes. We will have to get Milanos replacement this year, and we could bring up edmunds replacement as well. Going into 2022 with two solid LBs on cheap rookie deals, instead of having to exercise edmunds or pay premium for a FA.

 

 

Be surprised, be very surprised.

 

We get this every single year, though it's usually only a few people and at a different position every year. A couple years ago there were some who thought we should go 1 and 2 at WR. People have said this before at LB, they've said it before at Edge ... it just goes on and on. Yet it never happens, and for good reason. I mean, every once in a while a stupid team does it, but not the Bills and certainly not this smart FO.

 

It doesn't make sense. And this year far less than ever. Too many needs, too few chances in terms of money and picks to address those needs.

 

And it's nonsense that Edmunds played decent at best. He played poorly early when he was injured and he played very well once he got better. And yeah, Mahomes really made him look bad. We should trade for one of those LBs who don't look bad against Mahomes, like, like um ... well, like nobody really. I guess you could say Devin White, but though he did look good, an awful lot of that was simply how well the DL was pressuring the QB. Mahomes with time makes everyone look bad, everyone.

 

If we get rid of Milano, the odds on getting rid of Edmunds become miniscule, and they're low already, absent regression or injury or that kind of thing. Some fans here don't like Edmunds but the Bills love him and that's the bottom line.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, buffaloaggie said:

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

 

Is it? I have to say I am not in love with this draft class. It is a really good group of offensive tackles, maybe the best I have ever looked at in terms of depth (think last year's top 4 were ahead of this year's top 4 but there are still good round 1 options). I think there is decent depth to the edge group too but it lacks stand out talents at that spot. 

 

Beyond that.... meh. There are a couple of nice receivers I like later but it isn't close to last year's class. 

 

Not saying I wouldn't be open to them moving back from #30... especially if they can pick up a 2 and a 3 and give themselves 4 picks in the top 100... but the guys they will be picking there are more cheap contributers than stars IMO.

Edited February 26, 2021 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

13 hours ago, glazeduck said:

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. 

 

While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.

I was going to say something similar.  Given we most likely are not going for something big in FA with most likely less to spend (outlier it’s possible, but not likely we could get Watt if several things bounce our way) so the first three rounds we could stay put, and the later picks we could move down to increase numbers.

 

We have a pretty talented team that will have another year with the same coaching staff, and continuity helps the younger guys like a Dane Jackson.  Beane has a hx of trading up so if he sees a target, he may go for it.

[davefan66]

With he current cap situation, feel they scruff at the current position, or move back.

 

goong to need as many less expensive players as they can, and don’t want to have to deal with a JA or Tre type contract in 4 years.  Pretty sure Beane can’t get rookies who can contribute through the draft.

[Figster]

Trade up for Pitts or Harris in that order...

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/25/2021 at 8:41 AM, Nextmanup said:

Trading back is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Number of picks trumps ranking of picks IMO.

 

Give yourself more spins of the wheel to hit on some great players.

 

 

Another common sense reason to acquire more picks this april is the limited scouting on these guys. There's likely to be more misses than hits. If we use whatever FA money is left on Watt or Ngakoue, then I'd definitely trade back.

[HappyDays]

On 2/24/2021 at 11:37 AM, Thurman#1 said:

And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team.  You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.

 

I think every draft is different though. This draft in particular there doesn't appear to be great depth, especially at positions of need for the Bills. Also with covid restrictions on the 2020 college season, the combine, and player meetings, scouting the mid-rounds is a lot harder than usual. And it is unlikely in any draft that you'll get a player at #30 that you have a 1st round grade one.

 

So it's a matter of value. Let's say a player that Beane has a 1st round grade on drops to #25, and he has to give up our low 3rd round pick to get him. Would you rather have one player with a 1st round grade, or two players with a 2nd round grade and a borderline 3rd/4th round grade? It isn't as clear cut as "more picks give you more chances." If you give a player a 1st round grade it's because you believe he can impact the team from day 1 and become a franchise cornerstone player. If you trust your scouting you should always value that type of player more than 2 players that you just see as moderate contributors.

 

Of course the risk comes from the fact that if you trade up you HAVE to be right about the player. Trading up for Edmunds doesn't look too good in retrospect because he hasn't shown that he can definitively be a franchise cornerstone which is what you expect from your 1st round players.

Edited February 26, 2021 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

On 2/26/2021 at 1:36 AM, Albany,n.y. said:

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

 

Knox?

 

Another incomplete?

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[78thealltimegreat]

On 2/22/2021 at 11:58 PM, Tipster19 said:

I don’t expect for the Bills to just stand pat at the 30th pick overall unless for reason there is a serious slide of talent of need. If not then which train of thought would be more beneficial, trading up or trading back? I would think that either way could be influenced by the salary cap reduction. By trading up I would think that it would take some serious draft capital (multiple picks) to get in position of acquiring a serious talent, especially of one of need. Now who or what position that would be I cannot say but by doing this this would create one big contract and spending less money on multiple draft picks all the while of having a 1st rd player who provide the Bills with a 5th year option. 
 

In trading back the Bills could accumulate multiple players, providing a better chance of filling needs with smaller contracts. Drafting for LBs and OL, very good players could be found in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rds. Expecting to be losing some players due to the salary cap reduction (*see Milano) it would be the prudent way of balancing the ledger but the influx of young inexperience players might not be in the best interest of the window of opportunity that the Bills are currently in. This might though allow the Bills to add some mid range veterans through free agency to help offset the mass addition of young draftees. 
 

So which would be a better fit for the Bills, drafting for a higher quality of player of need in the 1st rd and have less picks or to draft for a quantity of lower draft picks?

Trade back we pickup an extra second and fourth...add a TE, OT, LB, RB and we good 

[glazeduck]

1 hour ago, Figster said:

Trade up for Pitts or Harris in that order...

Pitts - hell yes! 

Harris - god no!

[Figster]

20 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Pitts - hell yes! 

Harris - god no!

The way I see it both Pitts and Harris could have an immediate impact on a Bills football team looking for its 1st Championship IMO.Both in all likelihood will be gone within the 1st 15 draft selections IMO. 

 

On the other hand I don't see Buffalo having much luck finding trade partners...(trading into the top 12) 

Edited February 27, 2021 by Figster

[Victory Formation]

To me, there’s lots of prospects that I like that have an early 2nd to mid 3rd round grade. I think if we could trade down and get an extra 2nd and 3rd, you have to do it.

 

Carlos Basham Jr, EDGE

Zaven Collins, LB

Pat Freiermuth, TE

Najee Harris, RB

Jabril Cox, LB

Chaz Surratt, LB

Jay Tufele, DT

Hunter Long, TE

Marvin Wilson, DT

Tedarrell Slaton, DT

Creed Humphrey, C/G

Quinn Meinerz, C/G

 

And I’m sure I’m leaving quite a few people out. It would benefit us greatly to trade down. If there were ever a year to trade down, this would be it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Victory Formation]

Let’s play a game. Which player would you take if we traded up and which player would you take if we traded down and who would you take if we stayed put?

 

Keep in mind, if you want a guy like Kyle Pitts for example, a guy who is projected to go in the top 10, please factor that in and be realistic about the compensation it would take to go up and get him. Same goes for trading down. Keep in mind that if you were to go down too far, your prospect may be unavailable. 
 

Trade up: 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

Daniel Jeremiah has him as his 21st overall prospect. Hypothetically speaking, if he fell to around #25 I’d be more than willing to package #30 and say a 2022 4th RD pick to get him and maybe an additional 5th or 6th this year.

 

Owusu is a hybrid LB and can also play a bit of safety. Last year we wanted Kyle Dugger, who unfortunately went to New England before we could get him but Owusu is a much better player than Dugger is and ever will be and could fit that role here perfectly. Owusu would be Milano’s replacement ultimately and a huge upgrade at that.

 

 

Trade down:

Carlos “Boogie” Basham Jr.

Ultimately one of my favorite players in the draft. I am much higher on him than most are. I don’t think he would be a waste at #30 but from the looks of it, he should be available at #45-#50 if we were to trade down and we could easily pickup an extra 2nd and 3rd in the process. If Zaven Collins is gone before we pick, I think a trade down here is even more desirable. Boogie in my mind will put up double digit sacks multiple times over his career and would be a plug n play player at LE.

 

Stay put:

Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

This is my ideal scenario for staying put at #30. Collins can play at DE, OLB and MIKE. Big enough to take on offensive linemen, can shed blocks and disengage well. Very powerful, maybe not overly fast or quick but has underrated athleticism. Very smart player who would thrive in zone coverage because of his awareness and intellect but probably not a guy you’d want to see drop back in man. Once again, his understanding and awareness makes him deadly in coverage. More often than not he is where he needs to be and because of stellar instincts he makes up for not being necessarily the most explosive or athletic athlete. 
 

There you have it folks, who you got?

[buffaloaggie]

On 2/26/2021 at 2:58 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Is it? I have to say I am not in love with this draft class. It is a really good group of offensive tackles, maybe the best I have ever looked at in terms of depth (think last year's top 4 were ahead of this year's top 4 but there are still good round 1 options). I think there is decent depth to the edge group too but it lacks stand out talents at that spot. 

 

Beyond that.... meh. There are a couple of nice receivers I like later but it isn't close to last year's class. 

 

Not saying I wouldn't be open to them moving back from #30... especially if they can pick up a 2 and a 3 and give themselves 4 picks in the top 100... but the guys they will be picking there are more cheap contributers than stars IMO.

Bills need to play with the salary cap at this point, getting younger, less expensive contributors. Bills may be shedding DTs, Edge players, and will likely need a LB. They'll also be filling holes in the OL. They need bodies, that can turn into potential starters. At best, we can trade down from the first round, and still get a potential rookie starter or two with the 1st and 2nd picks. After that, it is about cheaper players. If we're talking about scoring some impact FAs, the FO will have to sacrifice somewhere. Trading down gives us cap relief while still filling holes in the roster.

 

And yes, draft depth is there at Tackle, CB and LB, three areas where the Bills can use help.   

Edited February 28, 2021 by buffaloaggie
Correction

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

And yes, draft depth is there at Tackle, CB and LB, three areas where the Bills can use help.   

 

Agree on tackle. To an extent on linebacker. I do not really like the corner class below the top 3 or 4 guys.

[buffaloaggie]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree on tackle. To an extent on linebacker. I do not really like the corner class below the top 3 or 4 guys.

Corner is always a wild card. Our roster has a 1st rounder (Tre), a 4th (Johnson), and two UDFAs (Wallace and Cam Lewis). I feel better going with a later round CB, while targeting a OT and LB with 1 and 2. We're mostly in a position to take best available.