Divisional Playoff round: Ravens at Bills on Saturday Night Football

[HOUSE]

We are doomed

[Beast]

We are going to find out a lot about Edmunds this Saturday night.

[BananaB]

5 hours ago, bills6969 said:

Baltimore’s D is better than Indy.  Top to bottom it is solid.  Strength is probably it’s secondary so should be a good matchup with our potent passing attack as of late.

We never really had a problem with the Colts D, we just had bad field position that effected our game plan. 

[YoloinOhio]

35 minutes ago, Albanybillsbacker said:

The forecasted snow and wind scares me...we need to be able to pass. 

Ravens need to be able to pass too. One dimensional teams don’t do well vs bills. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

12 minutes ago, Beast said:

We are going to find out a lot about Edmunds this Saturday night.

I think we already know enough, IMO....

 

Anyways, here is where I’m at: 

 

- The Bills finished the regular season 13-3. 
 

- They've beaten a good team to advance to the divisional round

 

-We’ve learned with much certainty we have the right QB

 

I hope they go out swinging for the fences, and live or die by the passing offense. At the end of the day, if they don’t get it done, there is still so much to be excited/proud about. 
 

that being said, I think they can handle these guys. Stomp the crows! 

[Bronxbomber21]

Are we getting 15,000 fans this weekend?

36 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

This weekend is not going to decide who the best QB is.  The next 15 years will.  Lamar is the best so far because of his legs.  He wont be running around like that in his mid 30's.   Three years does not a career make.

Yea but a 2020-2021 SB ring goes a long way into making that decision wouldn't you agree 

[Buffalo Ballin]

 

10 degrees outside? Snow? Blizzard? It's gettin' too hot in here. Turn on the AC good lawd haaave mercy.

 

We have to make the Ravens NEVERMORE.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't agree with that. Ravens defense ranks 7th in yards per play, 6th in yards per game, 2nd in points per game, 15th in weighted DVOA. I put more stock in DVOA than any other stat. They are a good defense but they aren't elite like they were last year. They've had a really easy schedule. The last good offense they faced was the Browns who put up 42 points. The Chiefs put up 34 points. I'm not worried about their defense. The fear is that we can't stop their running game.

They are healthy now. What about that game yesterday? That sure looked like an elite defense.

[BananaB]

Just now, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

They are healthy now. What about that game yesterday? That sure looked like an elite defense.

It looked to me like the Titans stuck to what wasn’t working too long. Just saying. I get it Henry is a great back, but ***** wasn’t working and they didn’t adjust

[JMF2006]

7 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Are the Bills the only division winners to advance out of the wildcard round?

 

 

 

No the Saints did too.

52 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

We are doomed

 

As long as the Bills aren't  

5 hours ago, Figster said:

The QB class of 2018 3 seasons later enters into the 2021 Divisional round of the playoffs with 3 of its top young guns representing teams from the AFC. One Patrick Mahomes.

 

For a chance at greatness they now have to defeat each other along with the defending Superbowl Champs.

 

Oh my Josh...

 

Maybe Cleveland gets really lucky

[thenorthremembers]

41 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Are we getting 15,000 fans this weekend?

Yea but a 2020-2021 SB ring goes a long way into making that decision wouldn't you agree 

100% agree with that sentiment.   Lets hope if any of the 2018 QBs get a SB ring this year, its our guy.

[CSBill]

Perspective: The Ravens put up 20 points against the worse Defensive team in the play-offs this weekend. And . . .

• Their Defense padded their stats against very weak late season opponents.
• L Jackson did not have a 300 yard passing game this season and only 5 games +200
• Lamar had only 3 100+ rushing games (counting Tenn. yesterday) all season
• They only had 3 receivers go over a 100+ yards per game all season - Brown in wk 1 = 101; Snead in wk 8 = 106; and Brown again yesterday vs. Tenn = 109
• In the four games that Jackson lost (he missed one game), his QBR was: 31.7, 13.5, 66.9, and 37.4 (that is bad at all levels)
• In a game they won, Jackson had a QBR of 69.4 and 58 rushing yards against the Colts
• Other common opponents ( QBR/RushingYards): KC 31.8/83 (L); Pitts 13.5/65 (L); Colts 69.4/58 (W); NE 66.9/55 (L); Tenn 37.4/51 (L); & yesterday, Tenn 84.6/136 (W)
• Records versus common opponents (with LJ at QB): Baltimore 2-4, Bills 4-2
• In those 6 common opponent games, the Ravens gave up 138 points or 23 per game. Against those same teams, the Bills gave up 137 or 22.8 per game (42 of them in the Tennessee clunker)

Conclusion

- Defenses are fairly even .... Season totals favor Ravens, but the difference is slight--Big difference, points. But I attribute that more to the Ravens having a much easier schedule

- On Offense, the Bills have the edge in points and yards

- Contain Jackson = Win!

 

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by CSBill

[spartacus]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

So you wouldn’t like some snow to slow down that little ***** quarterback they have? He is 50% of their offense
 

snow favors the offense

[SCBills]

Of any offense left in the AFC, I’d rather it be the Ravens we face this weekend. 
 

Chiefs can obviously be elite when on their game.  No explanation needed.  
 

Browns have the Indy vibe.  Monster OL, power run game with Chubb & Hunt and a QB that is capable of beating you through the air.  
 

Lamar Jackson can be electric, but if McDermott/Frazier can’t come up with a plan to limit that offense, with their passing struggles, then they’re not the defensive minds that I believe they are.  
 

On the flip side, the Ravens Defense is the toughest defense left in the AFC.  
 

We just played a tough defense and Josh played well, despite horrible field position all game.  Let’s hope another week gets the WR group healed up and close to 100%.  
 

Every team left has positives and negatives to playing them.  Based on matchups, KC is still the king until proven otherwise, but I wouldn’t necessarily say I’d rather face Cleveland than Baltimore.  
 

And for the first time in my adult life... Teams need to be concerned about whether they can beat us.  

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by SCBills

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

 

But but but ...  He sucks, there's a thread on it !!!!

 

 

 

(yes sarcasm)  Not a Karen

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

We are going to find out a lot about Edmunds this Saturday night.

We already know he is 6'5" 250lbs is 22 yrs old  and was picked 16th in 2018

Any LB's drafted by Baltimore in 2018 that are pissed the Bills didn't draft them?  

[billsfan1959]

6 hours ago, bills6969 said:

Baltimore’s D is better than Indy.  Top to bottom it is solid.  Strength is probably it’s secondary so should be a good matchup with our potent passing attack as of late.

 

Defensive DVOA and Pts Against of Opponents:

 

Steelers    1st Overall      4th Overall Weighted     1st Passing       5th Rushing     3rd Pts Against

Rams        4th Overall      1st Overall Weighted     4th Passing      3rd Rushing      1st Pts Against

49ers        6th Overall     5th Overall Weighted     7th Passing      10th Rushing    16th Pts Against

Colts         7th Overall     10th Overall Weighted    8th Passing      9th Rushing     10th Pts Against

Ravens      9th Overall    15th Overall Weighted    10th Passing     12th Rushing    2nd Pts Against

 

The Bills were 4-0 against the other top 10 DVOA teams they faced, beating the Steelers (26-15), Rams (35-32), 49ers (34-24), and Colts (27-24) - for an avg of 30.5 PPG

 

In those games, Allen was 106-51 (70%), 1248 Yds, 8.3 Y/A, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 101 Rusing Yds, 2TDs, 2 Lost Fumbles (one being the Moss handoff in SF game).

 

IMO, If the Bills play how they are capable of playing offensively, they will be able to score points.

[RichRiderBills]

6 hours ago, bills6969 said:

Baltimore’s D is better than Indy.  Top to bottom it is solid.  Strength is probably it’s secondary so should be a good matchup with our potent passing attack as of late.

Yes, but the Rams were better than indy too.

 

These Ravens gave up:

 

500+ yards to Chiefs

Nearly 400 to Eagles

420 to Titans

Nearly 500 to Browns

 

So as an old school guy, its hard to say this is a legendary defense...even for Balt. 

 

They are not unbeatable...good team, but not unbeatable. 

 

My biggest concern is pass rush causing sacks and fumbles.

 

 

[BUFFALOTONE]

7 hours ago, bills6969 said:

I was hoping we’d avoid Baltimore.  They have been one of the hotter teams in the league as of late and seems like LJ8 is looking more like the player that won the MVP last year.  Really worried about our run defense.  We got gashed for some big runs by the Colts.  It must be better against Ravens or it will be bad news for us.

Dallas, Cleveland, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars

 

those are their last 5 games...I’m not concerned. Will be tough but we are better coached. 

[JimKellyTryouts]

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

We never really had a problem with the Colts D, we just had bad field position that effected our game plan. 

 

Our third down conversion rate - best in the league throughout the year - slipped big time. Martindale will likely have a really aggressive gameplan so I am a little nervous about how that may go. 

[wvbillsfan]

We are worried about a team that scored 20 points on the titans defense? No sir

 

 

Edited January 11, 2021 by wvbillsfan

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Edmunds is gonna be on the frozen turf all night. Not trying to troll. He is noticeably terrible against the run. I pray we can get an early lead and force the pass. 

[RichRiderBills]

5 hours ago, InEnemyTerritory said:

Baltimore does not have a weakness on defense.  They are very limited on O but their front, their secondary, and their LBs are all fantastic.  The Bills need to attack this with their strength, Josh Allen's arm.  No 3 straight runs up the middle, Daboll.  This is the type of game to give Allen 45+ passing attempts.  Maybe they'll get an INT or two but the Ravens are built to beat playoff teams 20-13 like they did today (I don't trust the hype of their last few regular season games against some truly garbageous defenses.)  If the Bills score 25 or more they win IMO.

 

I agree with most of what you say but im sure that game film on the games i mention, specifically Chiefs, Browns, Titans, and even a few others were they gave up decent yards are going to show some weakness. 

 

Get er done Daboll.

[Casey D]

Cleveland laid 42 points on Baltimore before Baltimore finished with a JV schedule.  If Mayfield et al can do that, the Bills can at least hit 30.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Defensive DVOA and Pts Against of Opponents:

 

Steelers    1st Overall      4th Overall Weighted     1st Passing       5th Rushing     3rd Pts Against

Rams        4th Overall      1st Overall Weighted     4th Passing      3rd Rushing      1st Pts Against

49ers        6th Overall     5th Overall Weighted     7th Passing      10th Rushing    16th Pts Against

Colts         7th Overall     10th Overall Weighted    8th Passing      9th Rushing     10th Pts Against

Ravens      9th Overall    15th Overall Weighted    10th Passing     12th Rushing    2nd Pts Against

 

The Bills were 4-0 against the other top 10 DVOA teams they faced, beating the Steelers (26-15), Rams (35-32), 49ers (34-24), and Colts (27-24) - for an avg of 30.5 PPG

 

In those games, Allen was 106-51 (70%), 1248 Yds, 8.3 Y/A, 12 TDs, 2 INTs, 101 Rusing Yds, 2TDs, 2 Lost Fumbles (one being the Moss handoff in SF game).

 

IMO, If the Bills play how they are capable of playing offensively, they will be able to score points.

 

Stats.... 

Miami was supposed to have an awesome D too.  It didn't help them. 

The Titans have the best rushing game in the league.   It didn't help them. 

 

Every game is different. Player health issues, game plans  Its why they play the games. 

 

10 minutes ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

Dallas, Cleveland, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars

 

those are their last 5 games...I’m not concerned. Will be tough but we are better coached. 

 

Nuh uh. Lamar said he got his Game back.   

 

Even the HC is pumping his ego last night buy claiming it was THE Best run by a QB ever 

 

[RichRiderBills]

Part of it will depend on luck....does Lamar get the lanes he needs even when we play something right by performing magic. 

 

Honestly that is basically why they beat Tenn....Lamar got wild 2-3 times.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Stats.... 

Miami was supposed to have an awesome D too.  It didn't help them. 

The Titans have the best rushing game in the league.   It didn't help them. 

 

Every game is different. Player health issues, game plans  Its why they play the games. 

 

That was my point exactly. Buffalo has played a number of teams this year who were, statistically and in the view of most people, top defenses in the league. On the field, Allen and the Bills did pretty well against them. If they play their game against the Ravens, they will be fine.

[SCBills]

“You do not want to play this team”

 

-Every talking head about Baltimore.  
 

I don’t know if I’ve ever wanted to absolutely slaughter a team more than this Ravens squad... and it’s not even their fault... The dramatics of everyone on their fainting couch anytime their name has been mentioned over the past month......
 

Enough is enough.  

[Coach Tuesday]

Three things:

 

1) Gotta be physical 

2) Special teams might be the difference in this game

3) Better guard those tight ends this week (unlike last week)

[colin]

to me coaching will decide this game.  we need a d scheme that is sound and lets our guys play, prolly have to sell out to stop lamar running.  baltimore is not good on 3rd and long, that's the key for us.

 

on O, we have to put in some wrinkles but be ourselves.  this constant running junk we did vs the colts wasted drives early.  allen can get his running when he sees nothing in the passing game, don't need to draw them up like the old cornhuskers every drive.

 

looking top to bottom, every team in the AFC is dangerous.  we just need to play like we are the dangerous ones, and we gonna be ok!

 

 

[SCBills]

Re: Colts gameplan of running out the clock and owning TOP:

 

I don’t know that this is something the Ravens will do, or can do.   They are typically an explosive offense with some chunk yardage runs or Lamar hitting someone who gets lost in the RPO action down field.   
 

The reason the Colts were able to do that is because they would get themselves into 3rd and manageable and Rivers was pinpoint accurate on his “move the chains” throws.   
 

That’s not Lamar’s, or the Ravens, game. 

[Matt_In_NH]

22 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Cleveland laid 42 points on Baltimore before Baltimore finished with a JV schedule.  If Mayfield et al can do that, the Bills can at least hit 30.

 

That is true but that game was a while ago, the Titans have a very good offense, they got to 13.  Its not who you play but when you play them. NFL games are independent events that are based on matchups/schemes etc.   You cant just look at who played who when and what the score was and make good predictions.

[RichRiderBills]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Re: Colts gameplan of running out the clock and owning TOP:

 

I don’t know that this is something the Ravens will do, or can do.   They are typically an explosive offense with some chunk yardage runs or Lamar hitting someone who gets lost in the RPO action down field.   
 

The reason the Colts were able to do that is because they would get themselves into 3rd and manageable and Rivers was pinpoint accurate on his “move the chains” throws.   
 

That’s not Lamar’s, or the Ravens, game. 

 

So the concern here is not that it looks like what rivers did, but more like what Mahomes and Tannyhill did....3rd and 5 or short and Bills cover well, but mobile QB makes play with legs to get the 1st. 

 

Thats my big concern.

[Fixxxer]

29 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Edmunds is gonna be on the frozen turf all night. Not trying to troll. He is noticeably terrible against the run. I pray we can get an early lead and force the pass. 

 

He's inconsistent, he has some great games and other so not so much, saying he's terrible is too much, IMO. It's amazing that his kid is 22 years old, he still has a lot to learn and to grow. 

[RunTheBall]

Our special teams had an uncharacteristically bad game against Indy resulting in horrendous field position and limiting our offense in the first half. I don’t expect that will be the case Saturday night.

 

As other’s have said, contain Lamar and crowd the middle of the field. Make him throw outside the numbers, he feasts over the middle with TE’s and seam routes.

 

I expect a lot of our usual zone coverage so everyone’s eyes are on Lamar. He’s going to get some yards, we just have to limit them. Baltimore isn’t a dink and dunk team so if we can force them into that style of game we should be fine.

 

On offense we should be seeing a lot of man coverage which our receivers should feast on. Instead of running Singletary into their D line I’d try some tosses or even better, a lot of quick WR screens to the outside. Josh will have a few designed runs up the middle against their man defense as well. I hope we get rid of the designed runs to the outside.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

8 hours ago, BITE ME said:

I think the weekend worked out perfect for the Bills.  I don't see the Bills getting on a plane until Tampa.  Really think we are looking at a home AFC Championship game against the Browns.

 

Didn't the Chiefs rest starters week 17? Then the bye? How sharp will they be vs the Browns? Though it's hard to show up more discombobulated than the Steelers did.

[nucci]

going to be difficult without Moss getting tough yardage when needed 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, RunTheBall said:

Our special teams had an uncharacteristically bad game against Indy resulting in horrendous field position and limiting our offense in the first half. I don’t expect that will be the case Saturday night.

 

As other’s have said, contain Lamar and crowd the middle of the field. Make him throw outside the numbers, he feasts over the middle with TE’s and seam routes.

 

I expect a lot of our usual zone coverage so everyone’s eyes are on Lamar. He’s going to get some yards, we just have to limit them. Baltimore isn’t a dink and dunk team so if we can force them into that style of game we should be fine.

 

On offense we should be seeing a lot of man coverage which our receivers should feast on. Instead of running Singletary into their D line I’d try some tosses or even better, a lot of quick WR screens to the outside. Josh will have a few designed runs up the middle against their man defense as well. I hope we get rid of the designed runs to the outside.

 

 

I think it was more stopping the Colts at midfield, resulting in bad field position.

Just now, nucci said:

going to be difficult without Moss getting tough yardage when needed 

 

Antonio Williams steps in.

[RunTheBall]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I think it was more stopping the Colts at midfield, resulting in bad field position.

That certainly played a role but if I recall correctly, Roberts had a few brain farts either letting the ball hit the ground instead of fair catching or running it out of the EZ when he should have kneeled. I wasn’t impressed with our punt/kick return blocking when we had the opportunity to return.