99.9% chance wk. 17 will matter to Bills

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

That's a lot of if's ands and buts.  sorry I don't see us ever locking the second seed. and #1 seed? we have 0 chance at #1 seed. KC is up by 2 games winning a tie breaker...  #2 seed is possible but unlikely. and the titans? they are one game behind but win a tie breaker..  that may be the only reason we push the starters out the last game

What? It's unlikely that either the Browns or the Colts beat the Steelers? They lose 1 game and the #2 seed can be ours. 

 

Right now the NY Times has our chance at the #2 seed at 42%. 

[Kmart128]

I kinda dont want the 2 Seed if Ravens are the 7 seed... id be willing to let Miami win week 17 and rest our starters just so Ravens dont sneak into our 1st round game.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Kmart128

[mjt328]

It all depends on how much value the Bills coaching staff places on:

a)  Being healthy and rested for the playoffs

b)  Having the chance at an extra home game in the divisional round

c)  Which opponent they are going to play in the wild card round

 

What happens if the Bills go into Week 17, knowing that a win earns them a matchup against the Titans?  

And by playing their backups (and ultimately losing), they will get a rematch against the Dolphins in the wild card round.

 

If I'm Sean McDermott in this situation, I'm going to start Matt Barkley and use Week 17 as scouting film for the next week.

 

[The Gravytrain]

We keep playing to win, every week. A week of rest does not do a team hitting their stride well. A reminder that we were 4-0 heading into Tennessee. And look what those extra days did for us. This team is on fire and they need to keep the train a rolling. Choo Choo Baby. Choo Choo. 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by The Gravytrain

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

What? It's unlikely that either the Browns or the Colts beat the Steelers? They lose 1 game and the #2 seed can be ours. 

 

Right now the NY Times has our chance at the #2 seed at 42%. 

i agree go reread my post lol

[Protocal69]

2 hours ago, The Red King said:

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  Even if Cleveland wins to move into a tie for the division, they would also be a game behind the Bills and the Bills also hold the tie-breaker over them.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

The one seed is over. Its only spots 2-4

Edited December 21, 2020 by Protocal69

[Motorin']

11 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

i agree go reread my post lol

 

You said the 2 seed is unlikely and the Steelers hold the tie breaker. We hold the tie breakers, and the #2 seed is almost a coin flip at this point percentage wise. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

amazing to me how everyone has written off the Steelers. Just a few weeks ago, they were the most complete team in football and were thinking about an undefeated season.

 

I wouldn’t count those guys out. Lot of vets, good coaching, etc. Teams like that can go into a mini slump and easily turn things around. I actually think their main problem is offensive playcalling— which is correctible. 

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

You said the 2 seed is unlikely and the Steelers hold the tie breaker. We hold the tie breakers, and the #2 seed is almost a coin flip at this point percentage wise. 

yea i wrote that wrong my bad lol

[ogham26]

steelers are going to lose week 16 & 17.  bills will be better off playing backups/throwing the week 17 game.  with a win over new england and those steelers losses this gives us the 2 seed and a wild card game against miami

Edited December 21, 2020 by ogham26

[ALLEN1QB]

2 hours ago, TH3 said:

They way I see it...NOT being 4 seed means no chance of being at Chiefs Divisional weekend...being 2 Seed means 2 home games

Correct me if I'm wrong weren't we playing at home when Kansas City kicked our butt?

Edited December 21, 2020 by ALLEN1QB

[BisonMan]

I hope the team is only concerned about winning the Super Bowl. This is a team that should fear absolutely no team in the league at this point. They should have the attitude of welcoming a rematch with the Chiefs because you have to knock the crown off the king to be the king. 

 

The Bills already have a home game in round 1. They don't care who they play. They plan to win and can beat any team in the playoffs. 

 

The team should rest whatever starters needed (maybe all of them!), if it means being healthier and better prepared to march through the playoffs. That week is nothing more than a glorified pre-season game to a confident team. 

 

The Bills need to win 4 games in a row once the season is over. That's the only metric anyone should be thinking about. Our boy blue has it right:

 

“This hat’s fine and dandy. This hat and shirt’s fine and dandy. I want the one that says, f—ing Super Bowl Champion!”
     —Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, in the locker room, to his teammates, after the Bills won their first AFC East championship in 25 years Saturday in Denver.

 

P.S. That's the quote on the tee shirt they should be selling after the division win!

Edited December 21, 2020 by BisonMan

[Captain Caveman]

3 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

 

Probably, but we certainly would have said the same about the Jets yesterday against the Rams.

One other thing - regardless of whether Pittsburgh gets the 2 seed or not, how likely are they to win their first game?  I feel like as long as we get the #3 seed or higher there's still a pretty good chance we get 2 home playoff games (or even 3 if Baltimore keeps playing like they are and pick off KC.)

[CircleTheWagonsNC]

1 hour ago, Kmart128 said:

I kinda dont want the 2 Seed if Ravens are the 7 seed... id be willing to let Miami win week 17 and rest our starters just so Ravens dont sneak into our 1st round game.

I agree...the 2 seed will play the 7 seed.  If the Ravens continue to hit their stride and are the 7 seed, they will beat Pittsburgh.  So, if we're the 3 seed and win the first round, we will get another home game in the second round as well.  Ravens being the 7 seed would play @ KC in the second round.  

As of now, I like the 3 seed!

[Real McClappy]

20 minutes ago, BisonMan said:

I hope the team is only concerned about winning the Super Bowl. This is a team that should fear absolutely no team in the league at this point. They should have the attitude of welcoming a rematch with the Chiefs because you have to knock the crown off the king to be the king. 

 

The Bills already have a home game in round 1. They don't care who they play. They plan to win and can beat any team in the playoffs. 

 

The team should rest whatever starters needed (maybe all of them!), if it means being healthier and better prepared to march through the playoffs. That week is nothing more than a glorified pre-season game to a confident team. 

 

The Bills need to win 4 games in a row once the season is over. That's the only metric anyone should be thinking about. Our boy blue has it right:

 

“This hat’s fine and dandy. This hat and shirt’s fine and dandy. I want the one that says, f—ing Super Bowl Champion!”
     —Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, in the locker room, to his teammates, after the Bills won their first AFC East championship in 25 years Saturday in Denver.

 

P.S. That's the quote on the tee shirt they should be selling after the division win!

Could you imagine the fan freakout if Allen started week17 and got hurt for the rest of the year?

 

People are way to hung up on seeds 2-4. I gotta say I love it though. Such a beautiful and refreshing problem to have..

[Rock'em Sock'em]

I would rest White, Edmunds, Milano, Dawkins, Williams, Feliciano, Morse, and our three WRs.  I would play Allen sparingly, a few handoffs.

 

1st seed is out of reach now, so there is no bye week coming our way.

Many scenarios have us re-playing the Dolphins week 1, if we lose to them week 17.

Many scenarios have us playing the Ravens week1, if we beat the Dolphins week 17.

IMO, the Ravens are playing better ball right now.

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

1 hour ago, Kmart128 said:

I kinda dont want the 2 Seed if Ravens are the 7 seed... id be willing to let Miami win week 17 and rest our starters just so Ravens dont sneak into our 1st round game.

I just realized this is a likely situation. Ravens will probably win out since they’re playing NYG and bengals. If Miami wins next week against Vegas, we should consider playing backups and not showing our hand playbook-wise. Then if they win we play them in WC with our starters and full playbook instead of Ravens. 
 

Miami would show tendencies week 17 because they need the game. 

[MDH]

3 hours ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Pitt has a real chance of losing the next two after tonight. . I think as as long as we have a chance to play for 2 seed we do. 

As long as they can avoid the 4 seed they should do it. Last thing they want is KC in the division round.

[Greg S]

3 minutes ago, MDH said:

As long as they can avoid the 4 seed they should do it. Last thing they want is KC in the division round.

 

That might be the best time to get them. They will be coming off the bye so they might have some rust to their game.

[Unforgiven]

4 hours ago, The Red King said:

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  Even if Cleveland wins to move into a tie for the division, they would also be a game behind the Bills and the Bills also hold the tie-breaker over them.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

Pittsburgh is not losing tonight, 100%.

/end thread

[RiotAct]

21 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

Pittsburgh is not losing tonight, 100%.

/end thread

maybe Cinci will win one for the gipper.

[freddyjj]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pittsburgh is not losing to Ryan Finley. 

I don't know who he is but at this point he might be better than Big Ben...just sayin'!

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, Process said:

I could care less about the two seed. It would be nice sure, but in a year where home field advantage means very little there's no way I'm not resting starters to play for 2 vs 3 seed. 

 

 

 

What needs to happen in Week 16 for us to be locked in to at least the 3 seed? That would be enough for me. Obviously if we win and titans/ colts both lose that would do it. What if bills and colts win, and titans lose?

 

Dropping to the #4 seed is a concern and that's why the Patriots game will be treated as a regular game by McDermott.

As to your question I looked at that last night and if the Colts win the Division and the Bills have a tie breaker.  Better Conference record.

Of course the Titans have the tie breaker on the Bills.

 

2 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

I kinda dont want the 2 Seed if Ravens are the 7 seed... id be willing to let Miami win week 17 and rest our starters just so Ravens dont sneak into our 1st round game.

 

The Ravens winning out is almost guaranteed.  They have tie breakers against other Wildcard teams.  A very good chance that the Ravens

will seed above #7.

 

 

Note to everyone:

THE GOOD THING ABOUT ALL THESE SCENARIOS IS THIS.  ALL OF NEXT WEEKS GAMES WILL BE PLAYED BEFORE THE BILLS PLAY MONDAY!!!!!!

McDermott and the Bills will know what is on the line for the Pats* game.

 

Bills DO NOT want to get seeded 4th.  That means they could end up in KC for the 2nd game.  NO WAY McDermott wants that.

The starters will all play in the Pats* game for sure.

 

 

[The Wiz]

If the Ravens make #7, the #3 seed is probably the best option.  My favorite reason for this probably came from Shannon Sharpe of all people.  He said the best time to play the Steelers or the Ravens is right after they play each other because they beat the hell out of each other when they go head to head.

 

I don't doubt we can hang with anybody at this point but I'll still take any advantage we can get.

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

Keep winning and get as many home games as possible.

 

There's a reason why this team wanted to win the division and that was to have a home playoff game after losing their last two playoff games on the road.

 

Keep winning. I don't understand why this is such a hard concept to grasp with some people. 

 

The Bills just need to focus on what they can control and block out the noise that comes with a little success - act like they belong here.

 

If they buy into the hype and MVP noise and slip up I can guarantee the same folks heaping praise on them will lead the charge jumping off the bandwagon.

 

They need to keep prepping for their next opponent and continue working on improving their execution within the game plans for those opponents.

 

Nothing else matters, but the next opponent.

 

It is that approach that got them where they are at and will carry them the furthest in the post season.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by WideNine

[Buffalo_Stampede]

50 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

I don't know who he is but at this point he might be better than Big Ben...just sayin'!

He's no Nathan Peterman. 

[billsfan89]

In my mind the difference between the 3 and 4 seed is huge. But the difference between the 2 and 3 seed is lackluster. Getting the 3 seed ensures that you don't have to play KC until the AFCCG. Getting the 2 seed does ensure that you get a home game if you win round 1 but my main path to the Super Bowl means avoiding KC until the AFCCG or hoping KC gets knocked off in the divisional round in an upset. The Steelers if they win tonight will likely be the competition for the 2 seed and while I would rather play them at home I don't really fear them in their current banged up and offensively limited state.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

Patriots rested guys week 17 numerous times, those would be the only games we would ever win vs them..  They won Superbowls.

 

We rested week 17 vs the Jets and had a 16-0 lead before choking vs Houston last year.

It’s been referenced that the playoff loss turned Josh into the monster he is.  
 

He’s got talent on the team to Win and doesn’t need to be THE guy all the time!

 

[McGahee]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

As we've seen the last 2 weeks, Pittsburgh isn't very good. Their record is fraudulant.

[RiotAct]

32 minutes ago, McGahee said:

As we've seen the last 2 weeks, Pittsburgh isn't very good. Their record is fraudulant.

yes, but they’re much better than a Burrowless Bengals squad

[Captain Caveman]

13 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Bengals aren’t beating Pittsburgh lol.  Colts or Browns sure but not Cincinnati 

 

9 hours ago, Unforgiven said:

Pittsburgh is not losing tonight, 100%.

/end thread

 

13 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pittsburgh is not losing to Ryan Finley. 

 

Bunch of goddamned Clairvoyants.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Captain Caveman

[Numark3]

9 hours ago, Unforgiven said:

Pittsburgh is not losing tonight, 100%.

/end thread

the Odds Maker!!!!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

 

 

Bunch of goddamned Clairvoyants.

Lol. It's not over. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Unforgiven]

Laugh it up fuzzballs. 

[Unforgiven]

14 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

 

 

 

Bunch of goddamned Clairvoyants.

Yeah like anyone saw this first half coming give me a break nerds.

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, Steptide said:

There's maybe a 1% chance the steelers lose tonight imo

 

Think you might want to up the odds a little? I don't see how the Steelers even get a field goal tonight, let alone 18 points to win it...and that is if their D can stop Cincinnati from scoring anymore.  Should be 24-0...Finley threw a Fitz special to Boyd...3 yards behind the defender for an easy completion but the ball is so badly underthrown he ends up in a jump ball situation and doesn't make the catch.

[Captain Caveman]

16 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

Yeah like anyone saw this first half coming give me a break nerds.

 

You mean like the five people in this thread that reminded you and others about the Jets game that just happened yesterday?  Upsets happen every week, and Pittsburgh is a train wreck, so it's not even that big of an upset.

[The Red King]

The #1 seed is not out of reach.  KC has to lose both remaining games, Buf wins out and Pitt loses one and only one.  That would force a three-way tie that I *think* Buf can win.

[Orlando Tim]

15 hours ago, The Red King said:

So, I took a look at the standings to see where we could be week 17 and everything from the 1 to 4 seed are in play.  I wondered, is there any way we could be locked in by week 17 and rest our starters?  There's only one, and it's a longshot to say the least.

 

Buffalo will be locked in as the second seed by week 17 *if*...

 

*Buffalo beats New England

*Pitt loses tonight and next week.

*The Titans lose next week

 

If all that happens, Buffalo goes into week 17 a game ahead of Pitt and at least a game ahead of Indy and holds tie-breakers with both.  The Titans have the tie-breaker, but would be two games back.  Even if Cleveland wins to move into a tie for the division, they would also be a game behind the Bills and the Bills also hold the tie-breaker over them.  They would be assured no worse then #2, but Pitt's two losses would lock Buffalo out of #1.

 

So there ya go, only one path to Buffalo's week 17 matchup being meaningless to them, and that relies on four games playing out a certain way.  I don't see us getting to rest our starters.

If steelers lose tonight and to colts and we win next week then week 17 does not matter.

[Da webster guy]

15 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pittsburgh is not losing to Ryan Finley. 

 

Hmmmmm

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

If steelers lose tonight and to colts and we win next week then week 17 does not matter.

Which is a huge advantage for us.  Fresh for playoff opener and longer to gameplan than our opponent