Week 13: Bills at 49ers on MNF (in Arizona)

[Bills fan since 87]

7 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Too many variables in a team sport in this day and age to "fix" a game. 

 

 

Or always really, so many people involved in so many ways.  It just takes one to blow the whistle.  But none ever has.  Games not fixed.  Tried to cover up concussions yes...but not fixed...

[Mark Vader]

6 hours ago, MJS said:

Didn't a lot of money go against the Bills last week too? I think people are going to lose their money again. There's no reason the Bills shouldn't win this game. Obviously a loss is possible, but I don't think it is rational to believe that the 49ers are favored.

Yes, but not to the point that it made the Bills the underdog.

[BillsFan619]

4 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Not sure about the smarter part lol, but I'll take a stab...

 

QB Josh Allen and Bills RBs vs MLB Federico 'Fred' Warner...Allen should see some winnable matchups in the 49ers secondary and Singletary/Moss exercised some of their demons last week with 139 combined rushing yards and over 7 YPC. However, Warner is a top three LB in this league IMO with a penchant for making big plays and is so central to what SF does on defense (think an A+ version of Milano, no disrespect to Matt). 

 

Slot WR Cole Beasley vs Nickel CB Emmanuel Moseley...Beasley in peak form and on pace for a career year will likely be matched up against Moseley (SF's #3 guy at that spot behind Williams and Taylor who are both out). To be fair, Moseley was a good player for them last year during the playoffs, but he lost his job this season and is carrying an injury as well.

 

RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr vs LBs Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, and AJ Klein...Mostert is a very dangerous player particularly in the wider areas of the field with his speed and elusiveness. Wilson is a less athletic version of Mostert but a serviceable back up and McKinnon is a shifty weapon in the pass game. Edmunds, Milano (if active), and Klein need to stay disciplined with their eyes and gap integrity, rally to the ball, and tackle well (not something the Bills defense is known for). Edmunds and Milano *should* be well equipped to defend against this SF offense with their range and speed (very few teams have two LBs who possess the ability to neutralize speed on the edge like we do, it's just been a matter of durability and execution for us so far in 2020) and Klein will hopefully continue his impressive play crashing down around the LoS.

 

WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk vs Bills Secondary...these guys are huge YAC threats and will break some tackles. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, Samuel has -35 negative air yards when targeted in his last few games. The Bills need to play closer to the LoS than usual (less cushion) and gang tackle these guys. Looking for big impact games from Poyer and Taron Johnson (who for all his faults is usually great vs the run and a strong tackler). 

 

I was dreading this matchup before the season, but I'm cautiously optimistic now given the health and form of each team. Fingers crossed man, Go Bills!

 

Great thoughts and analysis, bro. Thanks for this, I appreciate it.

[TigerJ]

5 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Milano Klein and Edmunds can all cover.  Having them healthy makes a big difference. 

 

Will be tougher to run if we aren't in Nickel all game and I take my chances against mullen with the 3 of these guys blitzing as well. 

As I think about it, it seems possible Buffalo could run a little more defense with three linebackers rather than nickel.  Mullens finds it tough to complete a pass over 20 yards.  Kittle's absence means covering the tight end is a reasonable task for a linebacker.  On the other hand, Mostert is a speed back, but isn't all that physical as a runner.  DBs may not be at a great disadvantage tackling him and being involved in run defense.  The 49ers do make a lot of use of a fullback, and that might be a reason to lean toward using 3 LBs more.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Unless I’m forgetting something here...is the Bills last win on Monday night football in 1999? That’s crazy if that’s true. I know they won that game against the Jets in Detroit on a Monday. But on a an actual MNF game? No wins this millennium? Man the Bills need to break a few of these ridiculous droughts this year. It’s more then time.

[QLBillsFan]

Wow I’ve watched/read a lot of national media on this game. Heavy lean towards 49ers and Shanny is amazing coach. JA will make a mistake and 49ers have great skill players. Terrible Stats around prime time games last 20 years. 0-2 this year. I think Bills are better team and will win with D improving, running the ball and JA playing confident and smart. 

 

[QLBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I assume he’s referring to some of the QB draws and sweeps they’ve run and possibly how Allen has a TD reception. It’s certainly there on tape, although not a fundamental part of Daboll’s scheme. Who knows though. Maybe Saleh found Allen’s inside running to be particularly impressive. 🤷‍♂️

Seemed to be subtle criticism of running power with franchise QB. The coach speak with “the QB “ without at least saying Allen comes across bit annoying. I was looking at this game pretty calmly but the lead up including this and national media fawning over Shanny like he’s only coach dealing with injuries is making me aggravated. They played division rivals well, good for them. It’s the Bills and I expect both a tough game and a Bills win. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

On 12/6/2020 at 1:02 AM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Unless I’m forgetting something here...is the Bills last win on Monday night football in 1999? That’s crazy if that’s true. I know they won that game against the Jets in Detroit on a Monday. But on a an actual MNF game? No wins this millennium? Man the Bills need to break a few of these ridiculous droughts this year. It’s more then time.

correction: it was '99.

 

Oct. 4, 1999: Bills 23, Dolphins 18

 

The Bills are 17-26 in their previous 43 Monday night appearances.

 

The last time the Bills won a home Monday Night Football game? Sept. 26, 1994, when Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas guided Buffalo to a 27-20 win over John Elway and the Denver Broncos.

Edited December 7, 2020 by A Firm Tree Does Not Fear

[Chandler#81]

12 hours ago, eball said:

 

Someone's delusional, alright.

The Elf is on the shelf til after Christmas.😉  We needed a little holiday cheer.

 

Seems strange today. I woke up ready to start clacking the keyboard for PreGame, 1st & 2nd Half threads til I remembered we don’t play til tomorrow night! Still getting used to be TV Darlings.. 🤦‍♂️

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

51 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

The Elf is on the shelf til after Christmas.😉  We needed a little holiday cheer.

 

Seems strange today. I woke up ready to start clacking the keyboard for PreGame, 1st & 2nd Half threads til I remembered we don’t play til tomorrow night! Still getting used to be TV Darlings.. 🤦‍♂️

The Elf! I now usually  fall asleep unintentionally before I get a chance to move it.  I have to  wake up hastily just before my boys as the search begins first thing in the morning. I’ve probably gone through all the ideas I could find over the past three years. 
 

Maybe a little Elf game day jersey would be cool. Place him in front of the tv with some snacks. Then the boys know that they can’t turn the tv off from football for the day.

[Chandler#81]

9 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

The Elf! I now usually  fall asleep unintentionally before I get a chance to move it.  I have to  wake up hastily just before my boys as the search begins first thing in the morning. I’ve probably gone through all the ideas I could find over the past three years. 
 

Maybe a little Elf game day jersey would be cool. Place him in front of the tv with some snacks. Then the boys know that they can’t turn the tv off from football for the day.

Here’s a couple more ideas,

 

[HomeTeam]

8 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Too many variables in a team sport in this day and age to "fix" a game. 

 

When the referees have such tremendous power and the rules are open to interpretation, they can have a tremendous impact on a costly contested game. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good stuff....but what about Diggs?

Thanks man...yeah Diggs is definitely a key match up and should give us an advantage in this game. I don't believe Sherman or Verrett have the athleticism or quickness (they probably never did, but age and injuries have slowed them down further) to cover Diggs one-on-one so I expect SF to bracket him a lot and/or fade a safety his way. Hopefully we can still get Diggs more involved and our other weapons can take advantage of the single coverage elsewhere.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Woke up this morning looking forward to the game day thread and starting my usual Sunday approach and then it hit me...

 

IM GETTING OLD

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

The Elf is on the shelf til after Christmas.😉  We needed a little holiday cheer.

 

Seems strange today. I woke up ready to start clacking the keyboard for PreGame, 1st & 2nd Half threads til I remembered we don’t play til tomorrow night! Still getting used to be TV Darlings.. 🤦‍♂️

 

I did the exact same thing 

[machine gun kelly]

8 hours ago, TigerJ said:

As I think about it, it seems possible Buffalo could run a little more defense with three linebackers rather than nickel.  Mullens finds it tough to complete a pass over 20 yards.  Kittle's absence means covering the tight end is a reasonable task for a linebacker.  On the other hand, Mostert is a speed back, but isn't all that physical as a runner.  DBs may not be at a great disadvantage tackling him and being involved in run defense.  The 49ers do make a lot of use of a fullback, and that might be a reason to lean toward using 3 LBs more.

This is definitely a matchup we’ll do much better in a base defense if Milano is ready.  We’ll find out by 4pm Monday if he’s playing.  We keep going back and forth with disguising safety blitzes from Poyer so !uplinks gets confused not knowing where it’s coming from and we’ll prevail.

[atlbillsfan1975]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

All the analysis I've heard is that the like to play man.  Not sure what the split is between man and zone but I believe they like man more.  Could be different against us.

 LockedOn Bills did the crossover with the San Fran LockedOn host and he seemed to indicate SF runs more zone that turns into man, as most zone coverages do. In essence if the line can give Josh time, he will be able to find receivers in coverage Josh likes to attack. 

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Here’s a couple more ideas,

 

You keep that second on there the mods are goin to get ya, oh wait...

[Hebert19]

12 hours ago, njbuff said:

Klein really can’t cover.

 

He is at his best attacking the line of scrimmage.

Agree.  He will be blitzing or up at the line for the run but Milano and Edmunds being healthy will allow us to run the base like we did with zo out there. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 hours ago, njbuff said:

Klein really can’t cover.

 

He is at his best attacking the line of scrimmage.

Yeah his blitzing has been really nice as of late.

8 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Agree.  He will be blitzing or up at the line for the run but Milano and Edmunds being healthy will allow us to run the base like we did with zo out there. 

Milano moves so much like a safety, that they could almost stick with the base Personnel and still go with nickel coverage schemes.  The niners attack wide more so than deep And tend to go heavier. Wouldn’t be surprised to see more 3 LB packages from Leslie tomorrow. Seem like Often even when opponents go two WR the bills stay with 5 DBs. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[wvbillsfan]

I wish the bills could still be really good and play 1pm games. This last month is going to mess with my routine. Not sure I like it. 

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Here’s a couple more ideas,

 

If you're lazy and don't feel like moving the elf you could always go this route.

 

[freddyjj]

51 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see more 3 LB packages from Leslie tomorrow. Seem like Often even when opponents go two WR the bills stay with 5 DBs. 

I agree that showing a young inexperienced QB on their side some of our looks with Base 3LB defense could pay benefits in s few areas:

1. Bigger personnel on Bills at second level to fill gaps and shut down 49ers Run game.  49ers like to do stretch plays to perimeter and Milano and Edmunds offer great options to shut this down via outstanding pursuit ability.
2. Playing Klein in a Zo like SAM role allows him to push upfield on Strong Side and disrupt the blocking scheme and force play back inside on sweeps and outside zone runs.
3. Milano, Edmunds and Klein can stay on field and cover RB/FB and 2TEs in the 49ers 22 sets and even their 12 sets.  
4. DL should focus on hands up as Mullins (who is only 6'1") likes quick release, under or slant patterns.  Pass knockdowns or - better yet, tipped passes - will help limit the 49ers success on early downs.  Our LBs and Safeties should  also have some good chances at some INTs tomorrow.
5. Klein and Milano can blitz from their SAM or WIL positions and get to Mullins on passing downs more frequently than a CB or Safety.

Here's hoping Milano is a go and Leslie Frazier and McDermott scheme up some new wrinkles!

Edited December 6, 2020 by freddyjj

[BearNorth]

A healthy Milano [cross fingers] is really a big db. 

 

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

You keep that second on there the mods are goin to get ya, oh wait...

Nah. They’re both frantically looking for a dropped cigarette butt.. 

Why? What do YOU see? pervert..🤨

[machine gun kelly]

That’s what kids call it, hunting for a cigarrette?  Ah yeah, and I was born on a Thursday, not last Thursday. 😇

[Negan]

McDermott led Bills, is not losing to Nick Mullins.

 

Bills by 30

[RichRiderBills]

13 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Too many variables in a team sport in this day and age to "fix" a game. 

 

 

You build up a hive mind and get enough kool aid drinkers and you dont need to have implicit directions. The system works for itself.

 

Im not saying its real, not in terms of true "fixed" games, but I do feel there are collective "nudges". Sometimes Im not sure about the ebbs and flows there. You could argue the Bills could get special treatment in this game because we've actually produced big numbers in prime time, and have a game next week that could be the singular game of the year.

 

[Bronxbomber21]

Who are we rooting against the Browns or Titans?

[RichRiderBills]

Whatever win keeps them away from us. I would rather play the Ravens, Phins, or Raiders over the Browns. But would rather play Browns than Colts, if that means anything. 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

I agree that showing a young inexperienced QB on their side some of our looks with Base 3LB defense could pay benefits in s few areas:

1. Bigger personnel on Bills at second level to fill gaps and shut down 49ers Run game.  49ers like to do stretch plays to perimeter and Milano and Edmunds offer great options to shut this down via outstanding pursuit ability.
2. Playing Klein in a Zo like SAM role allows him to push upfield on Strong Side and disrupt the blocking scheme and force play back inside on sweeps and outside zone runs.
3. Milano, Edmunds and Klein can stay on field and cover RB/FB and 2TEs in the 49ers 22 sets and even their 12 sets.  
4. DL should focus on hands up as Mullins (who is only 6'1") likes quick release, under or slant patterns.  Pass knockdowns or - better yet, tipped passes - will help limit the 49ers success on early downs.  Our LBs and Safeties should  also have some good chances at some INTs tomorrow.
5. Klein and Milano can blitz from their SAM or WIL positions and get to Mullins on passing downs more frequently than a CB or Safety.

Here's hoping Milano is a go and Leslie Frazier and McDermott scheme up some new wrinkles!

great points and add lots of disguised pressure with five and it seems like a sound approach. Will be interesting to see if they attack in this way or just run the standard D and just keep it All in front of them. 
 

 

9 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Who are we rooting against the Browns or Titans?

maybe we just them to beat the hell outta each other and tie 🤷‍♂️ 

[MasterStrategist]

10 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Who are we rooting against the Browns or Titans?

For seeding, a Tennessee loss helps put us in that #3 spot.  Im rooting for Browns

[RichRiderBills]

Irvin, Warner, Cynthia pick us , Mooch and Jet homer Eisen pick 49ers. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

CBS pregame guys seem to think 49ers will sneak into the playoffs at the 7 seed. Not sure that has any reflection of what they think of tomorrow’s game but it does show you what they think of the team as a whole. FWIW.

[Bronxbomber21]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

CBS pregame guys seem to think 49ers will sneak into the playoffs at the 7 seed. Not sure that has any reflection of what they think of tomorrow’s game but it does show you what they think of the team as a whole. FWIW.

I really think Buffalo shows out tomorrow night

[sonyab1974]

Why are the rest of the games going to be around 8? And why is the game with the Broncos at 4:30?  The only game at 1 is with the Dolphins on January 3rd. What is going on?

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, sonyab1974 said:

Why are the rest of the games going to be around 8? And why is the game with the Broncos at 4:30?  The only game at 1 is with the Dolphins on January 3rd. What is going on?

Broncos is at 4:30 because it got moved to Saturday and is the middle of the NFLN tripleheader that day. The 8:30pm games are MNF and SNF so that’s always the time 

Edited December 6, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, sonyab1974 said:

Why are the rest of the games going to be around 8? And why is the game with the Broncos at 4:30?  The only game at 1 is with the Dolphins on January 3rd. What is going on?

Cause the bills have a lot of interesting match ups.  That 430 game is on a Saturday so it’s a national broadcast too. We’re a good team (though lots of people have forgotten) but the NFL hasn’t. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Who are we rooting against the Browns or Titans?

Well, what do you want?  If we want the 3 seed, we want the Browns to win, and this stuff is going to change every week.  That means as of today, we would then most likely face either the Titans, or Dolphins.  That’s making an assumption that moves the Colts into the South leader as I don’t know as the Titans and Colts would be 8-4.  I’m assuming the Colts beat the Texans, and the Dolphins beat the Burrowless Bengals.  So with these wins the Colts, Titans, Dolphins are all 8-4, and the Browns with the 5th get the Chiefs as the second seed.

 

Now if you want the Titans winning, they would most likely remain at the third spot as they beat us, but don’t all of the AFC wins from the Bills and Titans.  As of today, that means we get again most likely the Browns in the first round.  Honestly it’s too early to pick who you want as there are way too many variables for the rest of the season to ever know who we get in the playoffs.  This is a good question though after week 15, as the records are narrowing down, and have a better guess what we want.  Bottom line is win the East.

 

This reminds me of...

 

 

I swear we get into these scenarios and my eyes go crossed.

 

For example as I’m not going to write all of them is Miami should beat the Bungles, but then they have the Chiefs, Pats, Raiders, and us.  That’s a few losses and could even mean the Ravens get back in the race if Miami loses at least two, maybe three more.

 

Confused yet?  I am.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Scott7975]

12 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Unless I’m forgetting something here...is the Bills last win on Monday night football in 1999? That’s crazy if that’s true. I know they won that game against the Jets in Detroit on a Monday. But on a an actual MNF game? No wins this millennium? Man the Bills need to break a few of these ridiculous droughts this year. It’s more then time.

 

We really haven't had any Monday night games this millennium.  IIRC RW didn't want them. 

 

Edit: guess there were more than I thought.  

 

Loss to the Cowboys in 2007 25-24.

Loss to the Browns 2008 29-27. 

Loss to the Pats 2009 25-24.

Loss to the Seahawks 2016 25-31. 

Loss to the Pats 2018 25-6. 

Loss to the Texans wildcard last year.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Scott7975