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Week 13: Bills at 49ers on MNF (in Arizona)


YoloinOhio

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On 11/30/2020 at 7:01 AM, YoloinOhio said:

This game will be played somewhere, but it won’t be at Levi’s stadium.

(update -

 

 

Milano Watch is officially on. The open roster spots suggest he will be ready.

 

FWIW, McDermott's presser said "still working through that".

 

Amazingly no one questioned him about Josh Allen's injury

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49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Um, no. He was fantastic last season — one of the most efficient qbs in the league. And Mullins is not a starting NFL qb. I know people here are inclined to slag JG because, you know, Pats, but come on. Seriously. He has a lifetime rating of 98.9 over 32 games and is 24-8 as starter. Since 2017–the year he joined SF—the Niners have gone 22-8 when JG started and 6-23 when he didn’t.

Yep.  Garappolo’s limitations were exposed in the Super Bowl, but he’s miles better than Mullins, who’s below average as a back up.  

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10 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Any word on tickets? Will they allow fans?

Someone posted earlier it is family only since not enough turnaround time to disinfect entire stadium

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14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

As an out of conference game this is also the least important game that we play over the next 5 weeks.  If I had to pick just one loss for the rest of the season this is the one I would pick.  Sure I hope we go 5 - 0 but I would be thrilled to go 4 - 1.

 

My guess is that SF sees it this way to. 

 

 

 

Agreed. If you could choose, would much rather have wins over Pittsburgh and of course Miami. But beating a wounded 49ers should be easier than beating either Pittsburgh or Miami. 

My guess is Miami will lose to Chiefs, Pats, and Raiders down the stretch making the final game of the year meaningless. Bills will be 3rd or 4th division winner winning the AFC east by 2 games and the Bills will rest everyone in week 17.

4 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Someone posted earlier it is family only since not enough turnaround time to disinfect entire stadium

Thanks. Well that saves me a couple grand in tickets and travel costs

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Wow, it'd be kind of weird if we played a traditional 4-3 with 3 linebackers actually on the field.  I hope Edmunds is able to effectively shed blocks this week as the zone blocking scheme that the 49ers employ could eat our lunch.  Gap integrity will be the key to stopping this run game in my opinion.  Guys need to win their one on ones.  Go Bills!

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Their win over the Rams was a combination of the Deebo Samuels Show and the Jared Goff No Show.

 

Rams secondary avoided wrapping up Samuels and he made them pay.  Broke 5 crappy tackles on one play and poor tackling was true every time he touched the ball. 

Their secondary also managed to drop at least 3 Mullin potential Ints.  

 

Other than that, Goff was just plain awful.  

Unlike Goff (2 ints + 1 fumble), Josh needs to take care of the ball.

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41 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agreed. If you could choose, would much rather have wins over Pittsburgh and of course Miami. But beating a wounded 49ers should be easier than beating either Pittsburgh or Miami. 

My guess is Miami will lose to Chiefs, Pats, and Raiders down the stretch making the final game of the year meaningless. Bills will be 3rd or 4th division winner winning the AFC east by 2 games and the Bills will rest everyone in week 17.

Thanks. Well that saves me a couple grand in tickets and travel costs

Agreed beating Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Patsies is far better for our seeding and winning the division.   So a loss against the 49rs isn’t the end of the world.

 

However, PIT and MIA may be the two toughest games we have to play.  So it would be really nice to continue to build a cushion with a weaker SF team. So a loss in a week or two wouldn’t hurt as bad.  So in some sense this week is a must win!  LOL    
 

.... I don’t think we can call it a statement game. But surely if we don’t dominate them, then it must mean something.  
 

But back on point, this week we could lose and still be ok.  But, a win would be setting us up really well to maintain the division lead. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

and thats with the 0-11 jets twice on the schedule. that severely skews the SOS.

 

Yep. This is a case where the average value is a deeply misleading number.  I like the stat that looks at the number of teams with a winning record that you played and beat. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Yep. This is a case where the average value is a deeply misleading number.  I like the stat that looks at the number of teams with a winning record that you played and beat. 

 

 

well that would be 7 of our 11 games at this point where we've faced a team with a winning record up to this date. Thats gotta be tops in the league.

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This is one of those games where I throw the records out the window and look at the matchups.

The 49ers offense is a bad matchup for the Bills defense.They have unique and successful run schemes. Mostert and Jeff Wilson are back in the lineup. Samuel is a threat on jet sweeps. The key to defensive success for Buffalo is to limit the run and force Nick Mullens to beat them. This, unfortunately, is much, MUCH easier said than done.

The 49ers defense, meanwhile is ranked 11th in points allowed. Even with all of their injuries, they're a tough unit, and they just got Richard Sherman back. If the Bills' o-line plays the way they did against the Chargers in pass protection, it will be a long night. Protecting Josh Allen will be paramount to any success they hope to have moving the ball. With Richard Sherman on Stefon Diggs, the Bills will also need Beasley and Davis to step up in the passing game.

Lastly, the fact that the game is in prime time and in a neutral location is a bit of a factor, in my opinion. The two COVID-affected games the Bills played previously this year were their worst two performances of the year. I'm not convinced yet that they're adaptable enough as a team to overcome schedule/location alterations or to consistently perform well in national night games.

All in all, I see it as a coin flip of a game. FiveThirtyEight agrees, with a 52% win likelihood for the Bills.

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They are 1 dimensional.  Mcdermott and the defense will be ready to face Shannahans run game.  Key is limit run after the catch and long runs.  If Allen and the offense can jump out to an early lead that will make the game much easier.

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29 minutes ago, Fred Slacks said:

Since this game got moved to AZ will there be fans in the stands?  I was looking for tickets and can’t find any. 

that’s a good question, and I wonder if there were tickets, would the Niners’ STHers get dibs?  Since I’m guessing it would be them/Ticketmaster handling the distribution 

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52 minutes ago, Logic said:

 I'm not convinced yet that they're adaptable enough as a team to overcome schedule/location alterations or to consistently perform well in national night games.

 

 

The schedule didn't change and its really no different traveling to an empty stadium in California or and empty stadium in Arizona.  I think SF has a much tougher week ahead of them.  Not only do they have to deal with all the relocating distractions, but the big, bad, Bills are coming to town.

Edited by wjag
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Just now, finn said:

49ers are coming off a tough divisional game. It seems that is when let-down games happen, especially coming off a close win. But that's just my impression. 

 

They are 5-6 (I believe) and they are fighting to save their season and get back into the playoff race. I don't think they will have a letdown because of that.

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Fun Stats:

 

49ers last three games (without Garrapolo) they have:

 

- Turned the ball over 9 times (including 5 lost fumbles!), forced 6 turnovers including 4 against the Rams

- Scored 17 points, 13 points, and 23 points

- Have rushed for 55, 49, and 115 yards

- Have allowed rushing yards against of 111, 114, and 126

- Lost to Taysom Hill

- Been outscored 81 to 53

 

It was brought to my attention that Taysom Hill was not playing that game.  Brees and Jameis were the QB.

 

Edited by Jauronimo
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7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Fun Stats:

 

49ers last three games (without Garrapolo) they have:

 

- Turned the ball over 9 times (including 5 lost fumbles!), forced 6 turnovers including 4 against the Rams

- Scored 17 points, 13 points, and 23 points

- Have rushed for 55, 49, and 115 yards

- Have allowed rushing yards against of 111, 114, and 126

- Lost to Taysom Hill

- Been outscored 81 to 53

 

 

 

 

So ---  Cake Walk 

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On 11/30/2020 at 7:01 AM, YoloinOhio said:

This game will be played somewhere, but it won’t be at Levi’s stadium.

(update -

 

 

Milano Watch is officially on. The open roster spots suggest he will be ready.

 

https://bangedupbills.com/2020/12/01/2020-week-12-bills-injury-review-chargers/

 

"By the time he is eligible to return in Week 15, he will have had nearly a month to recover. By that time, it will only be a guess if he’s needed or if they wish to keep him on IR until the playoffs. 

LB Matt Milano (left pectoral)

LB Tyrel Dodson (hamstring)

CB Cam Lewis (left wrist)  

WR Isaiah Hodgins (left shoulder)

All are eligible to return from IR and have been activated for their 21-day practice window except Milano as of today. There is a strong chance that Milano gets activated for Wednesday’s practice. There are currently 3 roster spots available for which I believe Milano, Dodson, and Lewis will return.
 

Milano will be 8 weeks out from his pectoral injury against the Raiders with 4 weeks since playing football, Dodson is 6 weeks out from the hamstring injury against the Chiefs, and Lewis is also 6 weeks out from his possible wrist fracture against the Chiefs. For their respective injuries, that is adequate time for those injuries to heal, but it is not certain that each are 100%."

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7 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Fun Stats:

 

49ers last three games (without Garrapolo) they have:

 

- Turned the ball over 9 times (including 5 lost fumbles!), forced 6 turnovers including 4 against the Rams

- Scored 17 points, 13 points, and 23 points

- Have rushed for 55, 49, and 115 yards

- Have allowed rushing yards against of 111, 114, and 126

- Lost to Taysom Hill

- Been outscored 81 to 53

 

 

 

main takeaways from that is; they just got a lot more healthy last week so they scored 23, ran for 115 and allowed 126 rushing yards. Those fumbles gotta come back to the norm too, sounds flukey. 

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25 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

main takeaways from that is; they just got a lot more healthy last week so they scored 23, ran for 115 and allowed 126 rushing yards. Those fumbles gotta come back to the norm too, sounds flukey. 

speaking of flukey.... Allen has fumbled 5 times this year and lost ALL FIVE. what are the chances there?... meanwhile Herbert fumbled twice just on sunday and got both back. I also remember a mahomes fumbled snap we didnt get and then a strip on Darnold we couldnt come up with. And we got our guy losing anything that seems to slip out of his grasp.... i'm just thinking out loud i guess.

 

EDIT: i just went and looked. The bills have lost 8 of the 9 fumbles they've had. Thats really bad luck. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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18 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

main takeaways from that is; they just got a lot more healthy last week so they scored 23, ran for 115 and allowed 126 rushing yards. Those fumbles gotta come back to the norm too, sounds flukey. 

 

SF had a defensive score right? There is creedance to the notion they see the Rams all the time, plus Shanny and McVay old cronnies from the same tree.

 

One thing that interests me is SF has decent ST overall, but the kick coverage unit is 25th in yards allowed. Could be a big dre day on a fast field.

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