The Bills Aren't a Top-Tier Team Yet

[Shaw66]

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

[qwksilver]

I expect us to be 12-4 or 11-5 depending upon who plays the last week. We all know you are what your record is and that appears to be very good to me.

Plus a great QB can fill the cracks in your lineup. "Barely top 10" is incorrect. I only have maybe 5 that are better.

[DrDawkinstein]

I think every year there are only maybe 2-4 teams that can be labeled "Top Tier". We certainly arent there right now.

 

But we are on track to get there, and much closer than we ever have been over the last 25 years. I'd put us right below that Top Tier cutoff.

 

I like that we are being built to be a perennial winner. Maybe not always the best team in the league, but always a shoe-in for the playoffs. And then anything can happen from there.

[wvbillsfan]

I think our schedule says we are a really good team. The wins we have over other teams with winning records says we are a really good team. What I'm missing from the post is what teams are above us.

 

I can't get behind Josh Allen barely being a top 10 qb. Other than Mahomes and Rodgers who would you rather have right now? Wilson...I won't argue too hard. But the list of qbs better than Allen right now is not very long. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Which begs the question 

 

which teams are elite?

 

KC lost to the Raiders and had a close late game win against them. 
 

GB?  They lost some head scratchers and just don’t seem to have it all together 

 

Pitt?  Big Ben and the preseason softest schedule 

 

Seattle?  
 

Saints maybe still 

[StHustle]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

This ruined your whole post to me. Barely top 10? Really?????

[Seasons1992]

@Shaw66, no they are not. But they are right below and knocking on the ceiling to get there. 

[qwksilver]

2 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:

I can't get behind Josh Allen barely being a top 10 qb. Other than Mahomes and Rodgers who would you rather have right now? Wilson...I won't argue too hard. But the list of qbs better than Allen right now is not very long. 

I stretched it to 5 but barely top 10 is WAY OFF.

[May Day 10]

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

[Rigotz]

Great post and I'm sure there will be "extremists" flaming you to death, but you're right.

This is why it was a good idea not to make a trade at the deadline, despite those same people screaming for it.

 

This year the goal is the Super Bowl, but the realistic expectation is Playoffs with a hopeful first round win.

Next year, the goal and expectation is Super Bowl. We need all the ammo we can get for that.

 

And for the "You Are What Your Record Is" folks, do you think the Steelers are one of the top 6 teams of all time?

The objective way to look at a team is DVOA and we are slightly above average there as well.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Rigotz

[Billsfan1972]

Sorry I still am not sold on the Steelers.  Look at their schedule.  

 

I will put KC on a different level and that is it.

 

Again it is all about game planning & coaching.

 

 

[mannc]

I actually think the Bills’ overall talent level is average at best.  Josh Allen’s remarkable ascent to top-5 NFL QB has covered up some truly lousy drafting by Beane.  If anything happens to JA, we are in Jets territory.  

[wvbillsfan]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Sorry I still am not sold on the Steelers.  Look at their schedule.  

 

I will put KC on a different level and that is it.

 

Again it is all about game planning & coaching.

 

 

That's it for me. Kc and everyone else.  Not that you can't beat them but the margin for error is pretty small. Everyone else in the NFL doesn't make me think we have to play a perfect game to win

[H2o]

Top Tier:

 

Kansas City Chiefs

MAYBE the New Orleans Saints (with the way their defense is starting to play)

 

After that there are just A LOT of really good football teams this year, especially in the AFC. I don't put Pittsburgh in the top tier, but they are right there on the cusp at the moment. I really do believe the playoffs are wide open at this point in time. Any one of these teams could knock off an opponent on the road. The Chiefs have that winning experience on their side, as well as an insanely talented offense, which is always a plus. But even last night we saw the Raiders keep up with them for the entire 60 minutes. 

[Halloween Land]

You have some great posts Shaw, but I have to disagree with this post. The Bills are a top team and I think they are a physical team. I would say at the moment they do have a top 10 quarterback. 

[Shaw66]

I thought people would react to the Josh Allen comment.

 

First, my post was from the point of view of the stats.  That's what I said at the outset.   Look at the stats.  Yards, 6th.  Yards per attempt, 8th.  TDs 8th.  INTs, about 10th.  Rating, 9th.   That's why I said barely top 10.  

 

If you're talking about the future, about the QB I want to have for the next ten years, Allen's in my top 5, maybe actually in my top two, with Mahomes.  Allen is going to be phenomenal.  But if you're talking about the present, he isn't quite there yet.  Rivers, for example, showed again yesterday how good the really good field generals can be, and even though Rivers can't hold a candle to Allen in terms of physical talent, running the team is what sets apart the great from the good QBs.   Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Mahomes all have that. 

 

Josh has made great strides in three years, and as I've always said, he needs another year or two.  When he's a great a field general, the only guys who will be able to play with him will be the guys with great arms.   That's Mahomes and maybe Watson.   

 

[pigpen65]

The Bills coaching staff is very good when they are behind at halftime. They identify and make the adjustments to counteract the opponent's game plan. On the other side, the Bills coaching staff sucks when they are ahead at halftime. When it's the other team who has identified and made adjustments to the Bills game plan it always reverts to playing it safe, trying not to turn the ball over, and running clock. It's like there is never any "on the fly" identifying and adjusting being done. It always only happens at halftime. The Bills are good about coming from behind when they are losing, and they are great at letting the other team hang around and pull momentum away when they are winning. That's the simple explanation for why their point differential is so close to .500. Maybe they need better in game communication between the coaches so that adjustments can be made quicker..... i don't know. It's what it seems like though.

Edited November 23, 2020 by pigpen65

[McGahee]

Luckily our division is putrid

[sir andrew]

I'm to the point where when there's less than 2:00 on the clock and they're down by a score or less, I expect Josh to take the team down the field for the winning score.  Other than Mahomes, Wilson or Rodgers, there isn't another QB that I feel that way about.  I can't believe that I just wrote that about a Buffalo Bills QB.

[LeGOATski]

It pains me to admit how good Tennessee is. The Bills will probably be battling them at the top of the AFC for a while. I really hate the Titans.

If Allen stays on this trajectory, the Bills will be fine. He's definitely top 10. I agree with your take on McDermott's process. It's very thorough and they have to wade through some muddy waters along the way. What we're seeing is a very Pittsburgh- .. Patriots- .. Seattle- like transformation into a perennial contender.

[BuffaninSarasota]

18 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

 

sorry, but I disagree ..... can't run or stop the run. Not elite and not built for any type of deep playoff run.

[Shaw66]

Just now, BuffaninSarasota said:

 

sorry, but I disagree ..... can't run or stop the run. Not elite and not built for any type of deep playoff run.

I think this is the point - not simply run or stop the run, but in general, they don't yet look like a team that can make the deep playoff run. 

 

But, as I said, what the Bills have going for them is the process.  I don't think we've seen their best football yet.  

[DrDawkinstein]

24 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo is in the elite tier I think, but the elite tier might have 5-8 teams in it this season.  

 

Pittsburgh

KC

Buffalo

Tennessee

GB

New Orleans

Seattle

Arizona

Rams?

Raiders?

 

 

8 teams is too many for an "elite" category. That's 1/4 of the league.

 

Take the top 2-3 from that group. Those are the elite teams.

 

JMO

[GoBills808]

I don’t know how you watch yesterday’s games and come away with Allen is barely a top 10 QB.

[Johnnycage46]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I thought people would react to the Josh Allen comment.

 

First, my post was from the point of view of the stats.  That's what I said at the outset.   Look at the stats.  Yards, 6th.  Yards per attempt, 8th.  TDs 8th.  INTs, about 10th.  Rating, 9th.   That's why I said barely top 10.  

 

If you're talking about the future, about the QB I want to have for the next ten years, Allen's in my top 5, maybe actually in my top two, with Mahomes.  Allen is going to be phenomenal.  But if you're talking about the present, he isn't quite there yet.  Rivers, for example, showed again yesterday how good the really good field generals can be, and even though Rivers can't hold a candle to Allen in terms of physical talent, running the team is what sets apart the great from the good QBs.   Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Mahomes all have that. 

 

Josh has made great strides in three years, and as I've always said, he needs another year or two.  When he's a great a field general, the only guys who will be able to play with him will be the guys with great arms.   That's Mahomes and maybe Watson.   

 

 

I think the reactions are due to the fact that you applied a subjective phrase ("barely") to objective statistics ("top 10").  He IS top 10 based on the statistical categories you presented.  Adding the label "barely" just seems out of place and overly subjective.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I would say we don't really know if they are top tier yet...too many important players playing hurt and 2/3 of our losses were during a covid scheduling debacle.  If the defense doesn't noticeably improve after the bye I would agree

[Bray Wyatt]

How many other teams have played 7 of their 10 games against teams with winning records?

[Don Otreply]

Metrics, don’t mean as much as the win loss record,  look at Miami, IQ guy keeps touting metrics and they just don’t matter as much as winning. If you win you have won.

 

Look at the cowboys, yes before Dak got broken, lots of big numbers and a losing record, and that was with Dak, and last year they didn’t make the post season, and did so with good some metrics, they are a classic example of being equally bad as they have been good. Individual and team comparative stats are fun but, 
 

The only stat that mean anything is the win loss stat. Period. 

[Mat68]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables.  I looked this morning.  The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do.

 

Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East).  The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams.  The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders.   

 

Go to the team stats.  When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team.   The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run.  

 

The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh.  

 

The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10.

 

There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. 

 

Still, I'm optimistic.  I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better.   I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump.   I think it's real.  I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game.  Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau.  I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated.  I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people.  It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. 

 

Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent.  They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker.   They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season.  They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.  

 

 

I understand what you are saying.  But comparing records and other statistics are not equally weighed.  Buffalo is the only team to have 4 wins over teams with a winning record.  Buffalo has also played more winning teams than any other division leader 7.  Ten is closest with 5.  The points for and against is close.  They had the Jets twice thats it.  The only other team they played with a losing record today is NE.

 

Buffalo is playing top 10 offense.  Against, the very best in the NFL the defense is average.  So is every defense in the NFL vs good teams.  Buffalo dropped 35 on the LAR top defense, GB just put up 31 on Ind another top defense. 

 

Buffalos worst game came at 5 pm on a Monday.  24 hours before they were still preparing for the defending Superbowl champs they may play in 4 days.  Buffalo will face 9 maybe 10 teams that finish with winning records this season.  Buffalo looks to be headed for a 10 plus win season.  To say if they make it in as even a wildcard they are not a contender is wild in my eyes.  

[Process]

Need another playmaker or two on offense (RB and TE), and two new impact players in the front 7 on defense.

 

We are not far off, very doable to add the final pieces in one more off-season. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

I think the reactions are due to the fact that you applied a subjective phrase ("barely") to objective statistics ("top 10").  He IS top 10 based on the statistical categories you presented.  Adding the label "barely" just seems out of place and overly subjective.

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

[mbs]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I thought people would react to the Josh Allen comment.

 

First, my post was from the point of view of the stats.  That's what I said at the outset.   Look at the stats.  Yards, 6th.  Yards per attempt, 8th.  TDs 8th.  INTs, about 10th.  Rating, 9th.   That's why I said barely top 10.  

 

Being top ten by every measure makes him much better than just top ten. The same as if your team has a top five offense and a top five defense it would probably be the best team in the league, not just a top five team.

 

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If you're talking about the future, about the QB I want to have for the next ten years, Allen's in my top 5, maybe actually in my top two, with Mahomes.  Allen is going to be phenomenal.  But if you're talking about the present, he isn't quite there yet.  Rivers, for example, showed again yesterday how good the really good field generals can be, and even though Rivers can't hold a candle to Allen in terms of physical talent, running the team is what sets apart the great from the good QBs.   Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Mahomes all have that. 

 

Josh has made great strides in three years, and as I've always said, he needs another year or two.  When he's a great a field general, the only guys who will be able to play with him will be the guys with great arms.   That's Mahomes and maybe Watson.   

 

I'm not sure if I'm harder on Allen because I'm a fan or if I'm easy on him because I'm a fan, but I see him similarly.

 

Also I think Herbert might be on my list of top QBs going forward.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No.  Barely describes where he is on the list.  "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle.  "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10.  That's objective, not subjective.  

Give me your top 10 list then

[Ramza86]

I agree but...

 

This year seems a little different when you speak of top tier teams. I dont see any ELITE teams this year. I see a couple of REALLY GOOD/GREAT teams, and the rest almost as good.

 

When i think of the top 4-5 teams. I can easily see them being beaten by the next tier of teams. Practically anyone with a winning record.

 

I think the league has become very competitive where the "good teams" are just behind the "great teams".

 

We have only seen a couple of blowouts between two good/great teams this year.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I understand what you are saying.  But comparing records and other statistics are not equally weighed.  Buffalo is the only team to have 4 wins over teams with a winning record.  Buffalo has also played more winning teams than any other division leader 7.  Ten is closest with 5.  The points for and against is close.  They had the Jets twice thats it.  The only other team they played with a losing record today is NE.

 

Buffalo is playing top 10 offense.  Against, the very best in the NFL the defense is average.  So is every defense in the NFL vs good teams.  Buffalo dropped 35 on the LAR top defense, GB just put up 31 on Ind another top defense. 

 

Buffalos worst game came at 5 pm on a Monday.  24 hours before they were still preparing for the defending Superbowl champs they may play in 4 days.  Buffalo will face 9 maybe 10 teams that finish with winning records this season.  Buffalo looks to be headed for a 10 plus win season.  To say if they make it in as even a wildcard they are not a contender is wild in my eyes.  

These are great arguments.   Thanks.  You may be right about this.   

 

I just took a look at Football Outsiders.  This is the time of year when their analysis starts to make sense, in my mind.  They have the Bills at middle of the road, including strength of schedule, so they would argue with you.   But they aren't infallible.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

47 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Great post and I'm sure there will be "extremists" flaming you to death, but you're right.

This is why it was a good idea not to make a trade at the deadline, despite those same people screaming for it.

 

This year the goal is the Super Bowl, but the realistic expectation is Playoffs with a hopeful first round win.

Next year, the goal and expectation is Super Bowl. We need all the ammo we can get for that.

 

And for the "You Are What Your Record Is" folks, do you think the Steelers are one of the top 6 teams of all time?

The objective way to look at a team is DVOA and we are slightly above average there as well.

 

Next year is a good opportunity for the Bills to go far as they will be playing the NFC and AFC south so we'll have a little easier time of it.

[HOUSE]

So the Raiders choke on the last play and now I wake up to this...

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, mbs said:

 

Being top ten by every measure makes him much better than just top ten. The same as if your team has a top five offense and a top five defense it would probably be the best team in the league, not just a top five team.

 

I'm not sure if I'm harder on Allen because I'm a fan or if I'm easy on him because I'm a fan, but I see him similarly.

 

Also I think Herbert might be on my list of top QBs going forward.

Hey, I also like these arguments.  Herbert's not on my list because it's too early, but I agree he has the potential.  

 

And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five.   I thought about that.  But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him.   I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season.  

3 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

So the Raiders choke on the last play and now I wake up to this...

 

 

Carr was extraordinary last night.   Just great.   Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Josh is a top 5-6 qb easily. That's not even debatable. And the Bills record will be no worse than 11-5. That should get us to the division championship. Margin of victory differential is a problem and reflects our poor 3rd quarter play. Not having Star and all our injuries on defense has hurt this team substantially. If we can just clean up some defensive issues and use Moss more with a healthy Oline we can reach 12 wins.

[mjt328]

Let's see how the Bills come out of the bye.

This team was totally ravaged with injuries over the first 10 games, has faced possibly the toughest schedule in the NFL, and was still a Hail Mary prayer away from boasting an 8-2 record.

 

I've often said the Bills don't look like they belong among the NFL's elite, so I do understand where you are coming from.  But many of the AFC's top teams also look pretty mortal if you watch them every week.  The Ravens were supposedly a Super Bowl contender a month ago.  Now they are on the outside looking in for the playoffs.