I was WRONG about Josh Allen

[Rocky Landing]

5 hours ago, Success said:

I've never understood the consternation that goes on here on draft day.

 

I feel like everyone looks at the mocks and the "public facing" scouting reports (usually a paragraph) before the draft, and then determines who they think we "should" get based on that.  Maybe they'll check some youtube.

 

Sorry - but unless you live & breathe this stuff, and watch hundreds of hours of film of everyone at a given position, you just have to put faith in the braintrust.  And this particular braintrust has 100% earned that faith at this point.   

 

Usually, when the Bills draft a guy, I'll get to know him by looking up everything I can about him - but I never chime in w/ the "they should have gotten so & so...what are they thinking?"  They know more than we do. They get the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

What kind of fans would we be without deep-seated, obstinate, mulish opinions?

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, Success said:

I've never understood the consternation that goes on here on draft day.

 

I feel like everyone looks at the mocks and the "public facing" scouting reports (usually a paragraph) before the draft, and then determines who they think we "should" get based on that.  Maybe they'll check some youtube.

 

Sorry - but unless you live & breathe this stuff, and watch hundreds of hours of film of everyone at a given position, you just have to put faith in the braintrust.  And this particular braintrust has 100% earned that faith at this point.   

 

Usually, when the Bills draft a guy, I'll get to know him by looking up everything I can about him - but I never chime in w/ the "they should have gotten so & so...what are they thinking?"  They know more than we do. They get the benefit of the doubt.

 

I mean I don't watch everyone at every position... but I definitely watched over 100 hours of film. This past year for example I had 145 players graded. In order to get graded and go on the board I have to have seen three full games. Minimum it takes you to watch the cut ups of every snap a player has taken in a game is circa 20 minutes. So if you averaged it out at about an hour per player (and some players - especially the guys who are getting first round buzz I will watch more than 3 games of) then you would be into at least 145 hours.

 

Still doesn't mean you always get it right. And I get that the brain trust at OBD has access to a lot more information than I do.... but I completely reject the assumption that unless you work for the team you have no right having an opinion.

[Coach Tuesday]

18 hours ago, Success said:

I've never understood the consternation that goes on here on draft day.

 

I feel like everyone looks at the mocks and the "public facing" scouting reports (usually a paragraph) before the draft, and then determines who they think we "should" get based on that.  Maybe they'll check some youtube.

 

Sorry - but unless you live & breathe this stuff, and watch hundreds of hours of film of everyone at a given position, you just have to put faith in the braintrust.  And this particular braintrust has 100% earned that faith at this point.   

 

Usually, when the Bills draft a guy, I'll get to know him by looking up everything I can about him - but I never chime in w/ the "they should have gotten so & so...what are they thinking?"  They know more than we do. They get the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

9 GMs passed on Patrick Mahomes.  10 if you count whatever McDermott was in that draft.

[JMF2006]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

9 GMs passed on Patrick Mahomes.  10 if you count whatever McDermott was in that draft.

 

I remember everyone saying air raid QB's 'don't usually fare very well in the NFL.

 

I think being a legit 2 sport prospect and having an MLB dad helped him a lot 

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I remember everyone saying air raid QB's 'don't usually fare very well in the NFL.

 

I think being a legit 2 sport prospect and having an MLB dad helped him a lot 

Could be - my point is that the draft is a crapshoot, professional scouts and GMs who “live and breathe this stuff” get it wrong all the time.  Plus the most annoying guy on the message board is the one who shows up and says “None of you are coaches and scouts so be quiet.”

[JMF2006]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Could be - my point is that the draft is a crapshoot, professional scouts and GMs who “live and breathe this stuff” get it wrong all the time.  Plus the most annoying guy on the message board is the one who shows up and says “None of you are coaches and scouts so be quiet.”

 

Why should there be room for reasonable discussion on a Bills football message board?  

[x-BillzeBubba]

Crow, meet Manish...lol

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/ny-josh-allen-20200925-wohah2rawratre2pmlepgbj3fm-story.html

 

""Allen, frankly, is a killer. He exudes confidence. He plays with a fearlessness that makes teammates want to rally around him. He’s tougher than quantum physics.""

Edited September 25, 2020 by x-BillzeBubba

[Kelly the Dog]

11 minutes ago, x-BillzeBubba said:

Crow, meet Manish...lol

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/ny-josh-allen-20200925-wohah2rawratre2pmlepgbj3fm-story.html

That was actually quite a good mea culpa article.

[x-BillzeBubba]

3 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That was actually quite a good mea culpa article.

 

"Allen landed with the exact right franchise and the exact right people at the exact right time. His ceiling touches the heavens. Critics like me owe him our sincerest apologies."

[Victory Formation]

6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

9 GMs passed on Patrick Mahomes.  10 if you count whatever McDermott was in that draft.

And how many teams passed on Lamar Jackson? Had the Ravens known, would they’ve waited to 32? Let alone traded down then nabbed him?

[GaryPinC]

I had Baker as my #1, Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Allen, and Rosen last.

 

I really didn't want Allen because he made some pretty terrible decisions at Wyoming but happily I was wrong.  I changed my opinion quickly after the draft with his wonderlic score and discussion to the lengths of our due diligence.

 

Jackson was a huge dark horse prospect because, like Allen, he was very underdeveloped.  But at Louisville you could see his strong decision making on the field.

 

I wonder if Jackson's critics ever consider that like Allen, he is still developing to the NFL? 

 

Regardless, it shows how important the mental side of the QB is.  Both in motivation and decision-making.

[Matt_In_NH]

The jury is still out if we picked the wrong Josh

[x-BillzeBubba]

13 minutes ago, mattynh said:

The jury is still out if we picked the wrong Josh

If you actually beleive that... I dont want you as my lawyer 😜

[Pokebball]

17 minutes ago, mattynh said:

The jury is still out if we picked the wrong Josh

Based on Allen not doing well enough, Rosen not doing poorly enough. or all of the above?

Edited September 25, 2020 by Pokebball

[Matt_In_NH]

3 minutes ago, x-BillzeBubba said:

If you actually beleive that... I dont want you as my lawyer 😜

What if I was a sarcastic lawyer?

[x-BillzeBubba]

1 minute ago, mattynh said:

What if I was a sarcastic lawyer?

the best kind of lawyer😁

[billsfan89]

I wanted this team to draft Josh Rosen so I have zero expertise in football but once I started to dig deeper on Josh Allen I liked the pick more once it was made and I dug into it. I kind of thought of Josh's accuracy issues in college being somewhat deflated because the system he played in was deep throwing and he lacked decent receivers. Of course I knew Josh had his issues part of his accuracy issues were decision making and footwork. I figured decision making and feeling comfortable in the pocket would come with experience but footwork isn't always something that gets fixed. 

 

But in 2019 Josh started to make better decision as the season wore on and he showed progress in his footwork. By 2020 three seasons of hard work and two years of starting really are paying dividends. Adding a true WR1 helped a lot of course. But while I still would like to see what Josh can do against better defenses I think he is more than likely the real deal. Let's not get crazy there might still be a few bumps in the road ahead.

[Mr. WEO]

On 9/23/2020 at 9:14 PM, Zerovoltz said:

I joined this board, after the trade that allowed KC to select Patrick Mahomes and have stuck around the last few years to see how things played out.  I hung out here, speculating about all the 2018 QB's, the draft manuvering, and watched you guys all debate and discuss who you wanted the Bills to take. .....when the Bills took Allen.....I came here and put in my 2 cents.  I did NOT think Allen would make it as an NFL QB.  I was on the side of the debate that said, his completion pct is who he is, and who he's going to be.  I didn't think he could improve enough to be much more than an enticiing novelty.  I posted that opinion here numerous times.

 

I am here today to tell you.....to admit....the I was WRONG.  While I've always enjoyed watching Allen play, I'd always thought he'd ultimately be a flash in the pan in the big picture as time wore on.  He's not.  He's legit.  He's taken a big leap each season he's been in the NFL.  It's a credit to him, and especially to your coaching staff for identifying the talent, and the potential, and then actually getting Allen to progress.  I want to thank you all for allowing me to be a part of your community and give my opinion.  I have enjoyed it, and will continue to pop in from time to time.  I'm sure I'll be around when KC plays the Bills...that should be fun.  Anyhow....one more time....

 

I WAS WRONG ABOUT JOSH ALLEN.  I'll be having that crow now. 

 

So you're saying the Bills should NOT trade for Rosen?

[Georgia Bill]

On 9/24/2020 at 6:47 AM, Mickey said:

Does this mean that the Church of the Holy Completion Percentage, overwhelmed with apostates at last, is closing its doors for good? Or will we be assaulted with preachy sermons on high level analytics on Allen's DVOACRAP  percentage from every street corner the second he has anything less than a perfect game?

 

 

First, I'll say I was a little nervous about the pick, but fell in love with him as a QB during the Dallas game.  The keeper play (in my avatar) sold me on his heart and drive.  As for your question, we all know this board well enough to know that it's gush over Josh time now, but that your second sentence describes what's going to happen as soon as he has the inevitable come back to earth game.  I'm just hoping those keep getting further and further apart 😉

[dgrochester55]

I also will admit that I was not on board at first.   I remember watching him on TV in college in that infamous Wyoming vs Iowa st game in college.   I honestly knew almost nothing about him and he turned it over multiple times, they talked about him being a first round prospect.  I remember laughing and saying to my friends watching with me, "great, watch the Bills pick this guy".

 

I was resigned to another bust when he was picked but I gave him a chance.  Even then, I truly thought that at best it would be a project that took years.  He has exceeded my expectations from the beginning when playing and I am proud to say that I was 100 percent wrong

Edited September 26, 2020 by dgrochester55

[njbuff]

On 9/23/2020 at 9:23 PM, Zerovoltz said:

.....that doesn't have anything to do with it.....   It's easy to admit this because Allen has completely exceeded what I thought he'd be....if you go back and look at what I thought would happen.....it's easy to admit because I was clearly wrong about it. 

 

As much as I always loved Allen since his Wyoming days and as much as I think he can be a mega-star, I always take it game by game.

 

I am not going to say Allen is a complete project and is a star in this league yet as there is a lot of football to play.

 

Plus, when/if Allen has a bad game you know all the haters are going to come out and spew their garbage.

 

Like I said, I take it game by game.

 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Georgia Bill said:

First, I'll say I was a little nervous about the pick, but fell in love with him as a QB during the Dallas game.  The keeper play (in my avatar) sold me on his heart and drive.  As for your question, we all know this board well enough to know that it's gush over Josh time now, but that your second sentence describes what's going to happen as soon as he has the inevitable come back to earth game.  I'm just hoping those keep getting further and further apart 😉

 

I don't think Allen has had a maximally efficient game yet, something like what Fitz is doing now, getting the most out of his talent and his chances. He's gone from firing on 1-2 cylinders as a rookie and showing those flashes, to 3-4 cylinders last year to 5-6 cylinders these first 2 weeks (out of 8 - a real engine). He's still getting in tune. The points on the scoreboard don't always match up to the eye test/stat line of the QB performance. Both of those 2020 games really should have been put well in hand by halftime.

 

That said, I've been waiting for the next 2019 Week 4 level clunker, and it hasn't come yet. And even that was a game that could have been won. Remarked in the Fins-Jags thread that with Minshew it never felt like he could drag his team back into the game. Allen is the exact opposite of that, he can gack series for a quarter or two but he's liable to go off for 2 or 3 quick strike drives at any point when the rhythm and play calling gets in sync.

[Albany,n.y.]

The prize for the biggest loser goes to Rodger Sherman of The Ringer.  Here's what he wrote after we drafted Allen & a recent check indicates he still hasn't learned anything in 2.5 years

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens

 

Loser: The Buffalo Bills

 

I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future.

Winner: All the Teams That Didn’t Draft Josh Allen

Congrats to the Browns for listening to me and drafting Baker Mayfield instead of Josh Allen! Baker Mayfield was historically efficient at passing in college, setting the record for yards per passing attempt as a senior. Meanwhile, Allen averaged fewer yards per passing attempt than Rashaad Penny averaged per rushing attempt against the same competition in the Mountain West Conference.

Congrats to the Bears, who picked eighth, one slot behind where Allen was taken. Since the pick ahead of theirs was used on a quarterback who struggles to throw a football to his teammates, the Bears got to draft Roquan Smith, who, in my opinion, was the best defender in college football last year.

Congrats to the Cardinals, who picked 10th, and got to take Josh Rosen, because one of the teams ahead of them took the other Josh! Congrats to the Chargers, who got Derwin James—a projected top-10 pick—at no. 17! Congrats to the Ravens, who got Lamar Jackson—potentially the best quarterback in the draft!—with the 32nd and final pick in the first round! For the most part, life was really good for the 31 teams who didn’t take Josh Allen.

 

[Paulus]

I've LOVED Allen from the beginning, and yet I am still not 100% sold on my position he is the GOAT.

[Ralonzo]

11 hours ago, Paulus said:

I've LOVED Allen from the beginning, and yet I am still not 100% sold on my position he is the GOAT.

 

 

Of course you're not, heretic

 

[Paulus]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Of course you're not, heretic

 

99.9% sold. Haha

[CincyBillsFan]

18 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

The prize for the biggest loser goes to Rodger Sherman of The Ringer.  Here's what he wrote after we drafted Allen & a recent check indicates he still hasn't learned anything in 2.5 years

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens

 

Loser: The Buffalo Bills

 

I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. And then the Bills also traded a third-rounder to the Ravens to move up from the 22nd pick to the 16th to select Tremaine Edmunds.

Trading up is the move of a team in win-now mode. The Bills did so—but they selected a quarterback whose supporters even consider him a project. That doesn’t jibe. I’m so happy that the Bills got to the playoffs last year, and so confused about their future.

Winner: All the Teams That Didn’t Draft Josh Allen

Congrats to the Browns for listening to me and drafting Baker Mayfield instead of Josh Allen! Baker Mayfield was historically efficient at passing in college, setting the record for yards per passing attempt as a senior. Meanwhile, Allen averaged fewer yards per passing attempt than Rashaad Penny averaged per rushing attempt against the same competition in the Mountain West Conference.

Congrats to the Bears, who picked eighth, one slot behind where Allen was taken. Since the pick ahead of theirs was used on a quarterback who struggles to throw a football to his teammates, the Bears got to draft Roquan Smith, who, in my opinion, was the best defender in college football last year.

Congrats to the Cardinals, who picked 10th, and got to take Josh Rosen, because one of the teams ahead of them took the other Josh! Congrats to the Chargers, who got Derwin James—a projected top-10 pick—at no. 17! Congrats to the Ravens, who got Lamar Jackson—potentially the best quarterback in the draft!—with the 32nd and final pick in the first round! For the most part, life was really good for the 31 teams who didn’t take Josh Allen.

 

 

A lot of the "experts" basically said the same thing about Allen but not with as much malice.  This is why these people won't ever admit that they were wrong.

 

And as bad as this clowns take on Allen was his praise of Rosen looks a bit misplaced in hindsight:

 

Loser: Sam Bradford (and Everybody Else in Josh Rosen’s Way)

Two years ago, Sam Bradford signed a $36 million contract with the Eagles—two months before the Eagles selected Carson Wentz with the second pick in the 2016 draft. A month and a half ago, Bradford signed a $20 million contract with the Cardinals—and Thursday night, Arizona traded up to take Rosen, who surprisingly dropped all the way to the 10th pick in the draft. Rosen provided the quote of the night about his fall:

 

Some feel that Rosen might be the best quarterback in the draft, and that the Cardinals got great value to find him at no. 10. But alas, it means the Bradford era in Arizona could end before—or soon after—it starts. Poor Sam—err, actually, extremely rich Sam. But regardless, it’s another bummer for the former no. 1 pick.

[x-BillzeBubba]

Here's Roger now, at least he's honest:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9/21/21448621/the-winners-and-losers-of-nfl-week-2

 

""Diggs had 153 yards, the second most of any receiver in Week 2, and a touchdown. Diggs seems to have unlocked the best version of Allen: The third-year quarterback had his first 300-yard game in a victory over the Jets Week 1, and followed that up by throwing for 417 yards Sunday. He’s thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions. As a member of the Buffalo-hating media, I can’t bring myself to say that Allen is actually good at quarterback, so I have to say something convoluted and weird like “Allen’s play is similar to that of a good quarterback.”

 

[Andy1]

 

 

I have been optimistic on Allen from the beginning. He was so raw coming into the nfl but has traits you just can’t teach or measure like a burning desire to compete and improve and his clutch factor. Bean has done a tremendous job building a team to support him and allow him to grow and develop. I still don’t think we have seen his ceiling as he is ahead of schedule in his development. Let’s all enjoy the ride!

[Success]

On 9/25/2020 at 8:07 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean I don't watch everyone at every position... but I definitely watched over 100 hours of film. This past year for example I had 145 players graded. In order to get graded and go on the board I have to have seen three full games. Minimum it takes you to watch the cut ups of every snap a player has taken in a game is circa 20 minutes. So if you averaged it out at about an hour per player (and some players - especially the guys who are getting first round buzz I will watch more than 3 games of) then you would be into at least 145 hours.

 

Still doesn't mean you always get it right. And I get that the brain trust at OBD has access to a lot more information than I do.... but I completely reject the assumption that unless you work for the team you have no right having an opinion.

 

What was your opinion of the Allen pick?

 

[GreggTX]

His progress from year 2 to year 3 is far greater than his progress to year 2. Let's see how he does against tougher competition.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

What was your opinion of the Allen pick?

 

 

I hated it.

[Beerball]

On 9/23/2020 at 9:35 PM, BringBackFergy said:

Most of the board members here know that my “Extremely Large Board” had the 2018 QB’s ranked: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph and Josh Rosen. These guys know what I projected  @Mike in Horseheads , @Beerball and @Gugny

Your extremely large extra girthy board has never been wrong.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 9/25/2020 at 5:57 PM, njbuff said:

 

Like I said, I take it game by game.

 

 

I take it game by game. But I like to PARTY after the big games.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

One thing I've always thought about the Allen pick is that we were lucky John Elway screwed up twice before with big QB's before the 2018 draft. He swung and missed badly on both Osweiler and Lynch. I think that made him gun shy of picking yet another big in stature QB that was viewed as a project. The bummer for Elway is Allen is probably close to the exact QB Elway would mold if he could.

[Big Gun]

I loved the Allen pick and could see early on he had the tools and was going to be good. Some of the thing he did early were just stupid good that only a few could do. You could also see he was young and raw and needed time in the pro environment with real coaches. I could see early on he had "it", the Nancys tore me up for it, oh well guess I was right.   

Edited September 27, 2020 by Big Gun

[IDBillzFan]

On 9/24/2020 at 8:26 AM, Kelly the Dog said:

Ha. I had not seen that, no. Thx. It’s hard to find anything off the field not to love about the guy. That plays a big part. Of course, on the field is what matters and right now he’s got that steamrolling too. 

 

Found this in my social media feed this morning. The GIF of Josh correcting a reporter...

 

 

 

[Albany,n.y.]

On 9/26/2020 at 8:33 PM, x-BillzeBubba said:

Here's Roger now, at least he's honest:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9/21/21448621/the-winners-and-losers-of-nfl-week-2

 

""Diggs had 153 yards, the second most of any receiver in Week 2, and a touchdown. Diggs seems to have unlocked the best version of Allen: The third-year quarterback had his first 300-yard game in a victory over the Jets Week 1, and followed that up by throwing for 417 yards Sunday. He’s thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions. As a member of the Buffalo-hating media, I can’t bring myself to say that Allen is actually good at quarterback, so I have to say something convoluted and weird like “Allen’s play is similar to that of a good quarterback.”

 

This week it's even better:  https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9/28/21459431/winners-losers-nfl-week-3-josh-allen-sam-darnold-falcons

Loser: Josh Allen Takes

In some fields, it’s considered good to intake new information and adjust one’s opinions. In sports media, this is a mark of deep shame. Every time one of my tweets ends up on Old Takes Exposed, I have to pay The Ringer back $5,000 of my salary and draft a handwritten apology note to Bill Simmons and each of my editors. Last year I predicted Freddie Kitchens would win the NFL’s Coach of the Year award; when he was instead fired after one season, my girlfriend of six years dumped me for a guy who correctly projected that the 49ers would win the NFC West.

This is a big problem, because every single sports media member universally agreed that the Bills made a huge mistake drafting Josh Allen seventh overall in 2018. “He does not seem especially good at playing football,” I wrote ahead of the draft. Bills fans remember this. I was not alone.

Unfortunately for me, and untold dozens of other media members, Allen seems good at football. Early in his career, the Bills won despite brutal performances from Allen due to their top-notch defense; Sunday, Allen threw for 311 yards and accounted for all five touchdowns, including the last-minute game-winner in a 35-32 win over the Rams:

Worst of all for those like me: Allen seems to be singling out his former doubters. In 2018, Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey called Allen “trash” in a freewheeling GQ interview where he set out to diss half the quarterbacks in the league. Sunday, Allen targeted Ramsey on his most impressive touchdown pass:

After seeing what Allen did to Ramsey, I know my time is due. I also defamed Allen. I will spend the rest of my days in fear, knowing that I, too, am on Allen’s list.

 

[OrediggerPoke]

We all told you on draft day that the Bills found their franchise QB and that you would all soon be wearing Allen jerseys proudly.  Good to see you folks come around.  The we should have drafted Josh Rosen comments were hilarious to read on draft day and over the following years...thanks for the laughs.

[Albany,n.y.]

What Sherman said about every sports media member simply isn't true.  Among those who had Josh Allen as the top QB prospect in the 2018 draft were Mel Kiper Jr & my favorite draft guru Dave Te Thomas.