Will COVID19 Impact the 2020 Season?

[Mikie2times]

When they first brought up March Madness,  I didn't think any chance of that happening could occur.  If this experience has taught me one thing it's that everybody involved keeps underestimating it's ability to disrupt normal life from work/business to athletics and everything in between. Without a vaccine I think at best we will see a shortened MLB season and likely outright CXL and if that is the case we could be looking at NCAA and NFL being at risk for 2020. Picture how much better it needs to get for us to allow 80,000 people in a stadium?  

 

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

I think the season is in real jeopardy.  If this lasts into summer and training camp is lost it’s over 

[HappyDays]

It already has in some way. OTAs are delayed indefinitely. That could very well turn into training camps being cancelled. And yes ultimately that could mean the season itself being delayed or cancelled. No one knows how long this is going to go on for. I've seen estimates ranging from 4 months to 9 months.

[MJS]

What is CXL?

22 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

When they first brought up March Madness,  I didn't think any chance of that happening could occur.  If this experience has taught me one thing it's that everybody involved keeps underestimating it's ability to disrupt normal life from work/business to athletics and everything in between. Without a vaccine I think at best we will see a shortened MLB season and likely outright CXL and if that is the case we could be looking at NCAA and NFL being at risk for 2020. Picture how much better it needs to get for us to allow 80,000 people in a stadium?  

 

They could play without fans in the stadium. Most of the revenue comes from tv deals anyway. It would be strange, though.

[jrober38]

22 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think the season is in real jeopardy.  If this lasts into summer and training camp is lost it’s over 

 

I agree.

 

We may not have live professional sports this year. 

 

This is expected to last 12-18 months, or until a vaccine is developed. 

[stuvian]

delay first, cancel later

[mjt328]

I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts.  Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world.  And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable.  The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot.

 

-  If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work.  The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again.

 

-  How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work?  And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time?  The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care.  The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone.

 

-  Is this strand of the virus seasonal?  If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year.

 

-  At best, a vaccine is several months away.  But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization.  

 

 

Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity.  The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high.  The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system.  Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc.  Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually.  For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there.  But there are also glimpses of hope.  I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst.

 

[NewEra]

Delayed

[bigK14094]

The 1918 Pandemic had three waves over 18 months.......likely to be the  case today as well.  Might get a 2021 season.   There is a book on the WWI Spanish flu which I read a few years ago.  More US solders were killed by the flu than by the German Army.  Maybe modern medicine and methods can cut the deaths, but until herd immunity kicks in, everybody is at risk.  HERD immunity means more than say 85% of people have had it, and can't transmit it.  What is going on is much worse than the public in general perceives.

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Allegedly this virus will decline during the summer months,

 

This isn't a very strong theory at the moment, unfortunately. There's no evidence that coronavirus is killed by heat or humidity. Until a vaccine is invented, self-quarantine is the only way we can slow it down.

[jrober38]

9 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts.  Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world.  And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable.  The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot.

 

-  If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work.  The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again.

 

-  How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work?  And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time?  The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care.  The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone.

 

-  Is this strand of the virus seasonal?  If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year.

 

-  At best, a vaccine is several months away.  But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization.  

 

 

Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity.  The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high.  The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system.  Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc.  Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually.  For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there.  But there are also glimpses of hope.  I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst.

 

 

Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing.

 

It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is. 

[Augie]

Ask me in a month or so. I don’t see any way to even venture a guess right now. 

 

I will say, this is probably the absolute worst season to put in jeopardy over the last quarter of a century. Having said that, we have much bigger problems to face. 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing.

 

It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is. 

 

It is possible that by September we will have it under control enough to at least have NFL games without any fans in the stadium. Less than ideal to say the least, but if the players keep themselves quarantined for the season it's a possible solution that wouldn't require the entire season being cancelled. Even if training camp does happen it will be completely closed to the public and probably the media too.

Edited March 23, 2020 by HappyDays

[qwksilver]

I think it causes issue with the offseason. Hopefully not the season. If we are still trying to get this under wraps come September. Life as we know it will be forever changed.

[mjt328]

1 minute ago, bigK14094 said:

The 1918 Pandemic had three waves over 18 months.......likely to be the  case today as well.  Might get a 2021 season.   There is a book on the WWI Spanish flu which I read a few years ago.  More US solders were killed by the flu than by the German Army.  Maybe modern medicine and methods can cut the deaths, but until herd immunity kicks in, everybody is at risk.  HERD immunity means more than say 85% of people have had it, and can't transmit it.  What is going on is much worse than the public in general perceives.

 

One advantage we have over the Spanish Flu, is that younger/healthy people do have an extremely high recovery rate with this virus.  This thing is almost exclusively going after the elderly, and those over 60-65 with pre-existing conditions.  The 1918 epidemic killed people of all ages, including children and young adults (as you pointed out).

 

This should make it easier/quicker for humans to develop herd immunity.  We can feel safer about sending younger/healthy people out into the world, without being afraid they will get it and start dropping dead everywhere.

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

Ask me in a month or so. I don’t see any way to even venture a guess right now. 

 

I will say, this is probably the absolute worst season to put in jeopardy over the last quarter of a century. Having said that, we have much bigger problems to face. 

Bills finally are good and the world is ending. 

[davefan66]

No question it will Impact the season.  Won’t have the off-season activities we normally do.  Even if the season were to start in time, there will be an impact.

 

I could see the season being canceled, but most likely delayed or shortened.  Will it be without fans in the stands?  Would be awful, but whatever it takes to slow, or hopefully contain this virus. 

[Happy]

I would guess the virus will be under control by early summer.  If it last until September, the NFL season will be the least of the nation's worries.

[mjt328]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Live sporting events are the polar opposite of social distancing.

 

It's hard to imagine there being any live sports until a vaccine is found given how contagious this is. 

 

Like I said, there are scenarios that could drastically improve our situation over the next few months.  

-  If doctors can discover treatment drugs that work

-  If the virus turns out to be seasonal

-  If we succeed in drastically increasing the medical capacity

 

There are scientists and medical experts on both sides of the fence, and all admit they cannot be sure which way this ultimately goes.

My attitude is to hope and pray for the best.

 

[Augie]

10 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Bills finally are good and the world is ending. 

 

Foxboro has frozen over.....  

[Big Turk]

Cuomo just said the stay at home order in NYS is not something short term and we could be dealing with it for 4, 6 or even up to 9 months...

 

That would take us to near Xmas...the season is most definitely in jeopardy...

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Allegedly this virus will decline during the summer months, and could come roaring back in the fall. Might the NFL go to a summer season this year??????????????/

 

No one has said that definitively. Only that other viruses have. And that doesn't preclude a dip then a rebound once it gets cooler.

Edited March 23, 2020 by PromoTheRobot

[WMDman]

Unfortunately I do believe that the season is in jeopardy  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I wonder what teams and players union do with existing contracts. Would it be possible to essentially freeze everything, so to speak? 
 

in other words, guys we just signed to 2-year contracts for 2020-2022 would have their deals essentially converted to 3-year deals, at  a pro-rated rate? 
 

what do you do too with the draft? 

[jrober38]

20 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Cuomo just said the stay at home order in NYS is not something short term and we could be dealing with it for 4, 6 or even up to 9 months...

 

That would take us to near Xmas...the season is most definitely in jeopardy...

 

This isn't going away anytime soon.

 

I think even if the stay at home orders are removed, social distancing will exist until there's a vaccine and that won't be until next year. 

 

I don't expect there to be any live sports this year. Cramming 60+ thousand people into a stadium doesn't seem like it's going to be a great idea anytime soon. 

[TigerJ]

I think training camp will be held, but it may be closed.  There will be quick COVID-19 tests available and the team will make sure all player, coach and support personnel are virus free going into camp.  Once they are in camp, they can essentially be in quarantine during the course of training camp.  Any players who test positive would be quarantined separately and get medical attention until they are ready to join the rest of the team.  If public gatherings are not allowed by then, they can have preseason games without live audiences.  

 

I think there will have been enough research done by the season that several medications will have proven effective at alleviating symptoms in the most severe cases.  That may mean that the extreme pressure on the health care system will be relieved, as a lot of the patients who now have to be hospitalized will be able to stay at home.  I think the two things that are the most worrisome about the pandemic are 1. the high death rate among the elderly and persons with underlying medical conditions and 2.  the high number of patients needing extended time in ICU with ventilators.  There is not enough medical equipment available or enough ICU space available to accommodate the need in a worst case scenario.  Should patients not get the medical treatment they need, death rates will go up a lot more.  Effective medications can make a drastic difference in that scenario.  The league is proceeding at this point on the assumption that something will lead to the pandemic being on the downside of the bell curve.  Medication could do that.  I think the season could take place under those circumstances.

Edited March 23, 2020 by TigerJ

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

What is CXL?

 

They could play without fans in the stadium. Most of the revenue comes from tv deals anyway. It would be strange, though.

 

I'd say very unlikely only due to fact that when you look at the size or rosters, add in practice squad, training camp has a 90 man roster, coaching and training staff and front office personal, easily 150 people during the season and likely around 200 during training camp times 32 teams.  That's over 5000 people ,then add in their families.  The odds of not having players testing positive is very low if still being transmitted at a fairly high rate.  

 

Either will be safe enough to have fans present or no season at all until safe.  That's what did the NBA in, once a player tested positive. 

[Inigo Montoya]

1 hour ago, bigK14094 said:

The 1918 Pandemic had three waves over 18 months.......likely to be the  case today as well.  Might get a 2021 season.   There is a book on the WWI Spanish flu which I read a few years ago.  More US solders were killed by the flu than by the German Army.  Maybe modern medicine and methods can cut the deaths, but until herd immunity kicks in, everybody is at risk.  HERD immunity means more than say 85% of people have had it, and can't transmit it.  What is going on is much worse than the public in general perceives.

 

You can't call it "Spanish Flu".   That's racist...   ?

[DBilz2500]

13 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

You can't call it "Spanish Flu".   That's racist...   ?

I prefer Chinese flu. Love how Dems get so bent out of shape when Trump says that. It’s truth live with it 

[TigerJ]

If by chance they do not play a full season, they could play a shortened season.  If they don't have the season at all, it begs the question of how they handle the draft in 2021 since there will be nothing in 2020 on which to base draft order.  Do they simply repeat the 2020 draft order (before trades)? That would be a huge boon for teams at the top of the order.

Maybe they would consider a lottery system for the entire draft.  Cincinnati would have 32 chances in the pot to be drawn #1 again,  Washington would have 31 chances and so on.

[BUFFALOTONE]

Folks, vaccines take between 3-4 years to be created and properly tested... I have heard they are working on a few different strains now, which is not good. That means this is mutating. This virus isn’t the flu where it originated from human beings and passed the same way, your body carries antibodies to fight the flu as it recognizes the strain in your DNA.

 

This virus originated in an animal and mutated to effect humans. Again, it’s like H1N1 in that there is treatment options available. We all see the stress this is putting on the world in general. Football would be a great distraction but I highly doubt this is behind us by August at the earliest. Stay safe Bills fans and just chill inside or away from people for a month or so. 

[Boatdrinks]

It will impact it, and already has. I don’t think it will be cancelled, but I could see a curtailed preseason. 

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

   There will be no 2020 NFL season.  If things go very well, in regards to vaccine development,  NFL a year from now is at best,  a possibility.  Unfortunately, no matter how much a fan of the Bills you are, (and I have followed them since they first drafted Richie Lucas), no 2020 NFL football is the least of our problems.   Stay away from others when  you can, don't worry about paying rent or mortgages,  (courts will not be functioning for quite sometime, whether the government puts a hold on evictions or not),  hope that the government can make sure that people don't go hungry, and most of us will get through this.   

[BubbaT]

We haven't even hardly started testing yet in this country. This is the very beginning. Test. Isolate. Get hospitals back down to more manageable numbers and not overwhelmed and carriers off the street.. Need test kits, ventilators, hospital supplies. Again, we are not very deep into this. I definitely think the season is in jeopardy UNLESS there is a vaccine discovered AND tested. That would be world record time for a season to start by September/October. Cannot have masses of people showing up for events. This is only the first wave and even IT has hardly started here. Once there is a reduction in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, I expect people to get lax and that's where the 2nd wave typically spikes.

35 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

You can't call it "Spanish Flu".   That's racist...   ?

By the way the "Spanish flu" may well have started in Kansas. (Per Wikipedia): 

There have been statements that the epidemic originated in the United States. Historian Alfred W. Crosby stated in 2003 that the flu originated in Kansas,^[21] and popular author John Barry described Haskell County, Kansas, as the point of origin in his 2004 article.^[11] It has also been stated by historian Santiago Mata in 2017 that, by late 1917, there had already been a first wave of the epidemic in at least 14 US military camps.^[22]

A 2018 study of tissue slides and medical reports lead by evolutionary biology professor Michael Worobey found evidence against the disease originating from Kansas as those cases were milder and had fewer deaths compared to the situation in New York City in the same time period. The study did find evidence through phylogenetic analyses that the virus likely had a North American origin, though it was not conclusive. In addition, the haemagglutinin glycoproteins of the virus suggest that it was around far prior to 1918 and other studies suggest that the reassortment of the H1N1 virus likely occurred in or around 1915.^[23]

[Meatloaf63]

There will not be isolation for 4 months or longer.The economy  couldn’t handle it. There are several promising drugs that are about to unleashed. The pharmaceutical industry is pissed that a cheap generic drug given with the Zpack has been wiping this out in 4-6 days. It won’t be long before the minor cases are being sent home and the serious ones will get relief. China hasn’t had a new case in three days, Japan is re opening schools. The news wants to make this worse than it needs to be. It’s not a hoax, but it’s not the end of the world either.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Meatloaf63

[Nester]

It’s a good chance of a canceled season.

 

will be interesting to see how the talent fluctuates with a year off and a year of age.

[Beast]

Honestly, I believe the season will start on time. 

[lookylookyherecomescookie]

14 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

There will not be isolation for 4 months or longer.The economy  couldn’t handle it. There are several promising drugs that are about to unleashed. The pharmaceutical industry is pissed that a cheap generic drug given with the Zpack has been wiping this out in 4-6 days. It won’t be long before the minor cases are being sent home and the serious ones will get relief. China hasn’t had a new case in three days, Japan is re opening schools. The news wants to make this worse than it needs to be. It’s not a hoax, but it’s not the end of the world either.

Meatloaf, I'm thrilled to hear that there is a cheap generic drug that I can take so I don't have to worry about dying. What is it's name? Do you think I can order it on Amazon? Do you think cynicism and sarcasm will minimize its efficacy?

[MJS]

I'm fine if the sickness eats into my work time, grocery shopping, and other assorted gatherings. I'm fine if it crashes the economy. But if the season is cancelled? Now that's a true tragedy.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

It'll be delayed and quite possibly cancelled.