Gunner's 2020 Mock Draft! UPDATE - v3.0 (and FINAL) now posted on p.8

[All_Pro_Bills]

I'm not sure about the Detroit-Miami trade for #3.  I might be alone on this but I can see Detroit going with Tagovailoa with that pick.  Patricia is going into year three and needs to show improvement.  Stanford has been there 11 years and they have 3 wildcard appearances and three loses in that time.  They can draft Tua, play Stafford the year and opt out of the last two years of his deal.  

That might put the Giants pick in play for teams looking for a QB in this year's draft.

 

[BigBillsFan]

I disagree with picks 1-32 but otherwise its good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding, great job and great read

[TSNBDSC]

Nice work ! However, Epenesa or Fulton for me at 22 for what its worth.

[Victory Formation]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why are KC trading UP? They have half their cap tied up in 8 players and their all world QB to pay. They need as many cheap players as they can get. They are the last team that would trade up. 

It’s a draft simulator. If not Kansas City, someone else. Point is to load up on picks and load the roster.

[Mr. WEO]

4 OT in the top 10..

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Don't hate it, but I prefer both Shenault and Epenesa over Higgins. 

 

...is the injury a concern?...

 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I’m a big fan of trading down. We have holes all over the place. People say that we lack A+ players but I disagree. I could see Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds and Devin Singletary being elite players and then we have TreDavious White who has been elite. We need to move down and accumulate picks. RB2, WR1, WR4, OG, RT, DT, DE, OLB, backup MLB, CB2 are all need areas. I did a trade down on first pick and this was my haul, I think most of the players would stick.

 

 

Round 1 Pick 32 (K.C.): Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU (A-)
Round 2 Pick 22: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin (A)
Round 2 Pick 31 (K.C.): Darryl Williams, C/OG, Mississippi State (A-)
Round 3 Pick 22: Kenny Willekes, DE, Michigan State (A)
Round 3 Pick 32 (K.C.): Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Alton Robinson, DE, Syracuse (A+)
Round 5 Pick 9: Raequan Williams, DT, Michigan State (A+)
Round 5 Pick 21: Scott Lashley, OT, Alabama (A+)
Round 6 Pick 9: Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty (A+)
Round 6 Pick 23: Stephen Guidry, WR, Mississippi State (A+)

Yeah I am actually thinking the exact opposite

 

We dont have holes "all over the place" that is why we are 10 and 6.....most of our roster is already signed......and picking in the 20's.

 

This is where I feel we need to get more specific on exactly what the few holes we have left are

 

I am not a fan of trading up....unless the top 2 WR's start falling....but I am def not a fan of trading down.

[Aussie Joe]

Thanks for taking the time to do this..

 

I think Detroit is going to sell that No 3 pick for a kings ransom... more than you have indicated.. ( that’s provided they don’t want Tua themselves)..
 

I hope Higgins is not the pick in Round 1.... I think there is a chance the Bills trade this pick for an established  WR.. 

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

4 OT in the top 10..

I noticed that.....and I love gunner and think he really knows his stuff but that is a lot of OT's

 

I think if a quality OT falls to us you really have to look at it.....right now it is still WR for me

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Thanks for taking the time to do this..

 

I think Detroit is going to sell that No 3 pick for a kings ransom... more than you have indicated.. ( that’s provided they don’t want Tua themselves)..
 

I hope Higgins is not the pick in Round 1.... I think there is a chance the Bills trade this pick for an established  WR.. 

I would live with it if they did if they can get a number 1 guy

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

I noticed that.....and I love gunner and think he really knows his stuff but that is a lot of OT's

 

I think if a quality OT falls to us you really have to look at it.....right now it is still WR for me

Bad teams do it every year it seems...

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Bad teams do it every year it seems...

Do what?  Take OT's?

[schoolhouserock]

Great read.

 

As a Hawkeye fan, however, I cannot forgive passing on AJ Epenesa. Mr Family would fit in very well with the Buffalo process. He’s also a fantastic player who just kept getting better and better - his best is yet to come.

[GreggTX]

I like it if we sign Brandon Scherff to play RT and let Cody Ford compete with Feliciano at RG. I still wouldn't mind a DE or CB at 22 because this draft is so deep at WR. I think round 3 would be fine for drafting an OLB to replace Lorenzo. I'd also like to sign an additional outside WR in FA -- Maybe not a #1, but an upgrade from Foster and Williams. Day 3, I hope lands us some guys to compete for OL/DL jobs. I suspect we will sign Greg Olsen whom I believe is still playing at a high level. We can revisit the TE position in another year or 2 depending on how long Olsen stays viable and how well/quickly Knox and Sweeney develop.

[Mr. WEO]

56 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Do what?  Take OT's?

In the  1st. Or so it seems

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

In the  1st. Or so it seems

Interesting.

 

Too me it depends on the strength of the position in a particular year.  We seem to have gotten our best OL in the 2nd round.   THis year I would rather address offensive weapon I think now is the time....I would take two actually

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Good work. I'm personally not that excited about Higgins since I think he's a bit slender and possiby injury-prone in the nfl. Does he have the strength to fight off NFL DBs and battle for the ball/

 

this is my concern. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

this is my concern. 

 

If I could somehow merge Higgins and Shenault, I'd be thrilled. But I have questions on both. Luckily it's not up to me to make that decision. In Beane I Trust.

 

I'm also interested in Thad Moss. Big body TE who can definitely go up and "Moss" people. Maybe Higgins in the 1st, and Moss later? Not sure where Moss is slated to go...

Edited February 16, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[mannc]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

Shouldn't we get a handle on the combine and FA first before we indulge in these mock drafts.

 

Doing mocks before that are pretty useless.

Right, because there are so many other compelling threads on the board right now, like the seven "Would you trade our first round pick for [insert name of player you've heard of, who's not even on the market]" threads.... 

[Virgil]

Solid work.  Three things from my perspective 

 

1 - I just can’t see that many OT going in the first round, especially the top 10. 
 

2 - I don’t think the Panthers trade back if their DT is still there

 

3 - If Simmons falls that far, which I doubt, I would hope the Bills would trade up for him 

[ALLEN1QB]

Looks like a lot of teams going wr before us any chance we trade up?

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

3 - If Simmons falls that far, which I doubt, I would hope the Bills would trade up for him 

If we trade up in the first round for a defensive player, I'm going to need a new television...

[Virgil]

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

If we trade up in the first round for a defensive player, I'm going to need a new television...

Imagine Simmons, Edmunds, and Milano for the next decade.  
 

Simmons is going to be that good where I would easily jump up if he fell past 10.  He won’t, but I wouldn’t hesitate.  

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Imagine Simmons, Edmunds, and Milano for the next decade.  
 

Simmons is going to be that good where I would easily jump up if he fell past 10.  He won’t, but I wouldn’t hesitate.  

I'm not saying Simmons won't be good, but I'm trying to imagine another year of rooting for a team that struggles to score more than 17 points a game...our defense will be just fine without Simmons  

[Seoulofstone]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

31. 49ers - Austin Jackson - OT - USC

A lot of people are mocking an interior offensive lineman to the 49ers but I am slightly bucking that trend by giving them a tackle. Left tackle Joe Staley is 35 and rumoured to be considering retirement. They could switch third year right tackle Mike McGlinchey over to protect Garoppolo's blindside and plug Jackson straight in on the right. They could also be a major trade down target if a team wants to get up for a Quarterback here (maybe Jacob Eason?) because after this pick the 49ers are not scheduled to pick again until round 5.
 

 

 

 There's a lot about this mock that I like. Picks like the 49ers, make a lot of sense if you stop and think about it.

  What annoys me with mocks is when people concensus draft and they all look broadly the same. After all these teams have multiple needs and their boards will all look different.

  I think I agree that OTs are going to go earlier than people think. Not because they're necessarily that good but because I see several teams ( NYJ, CLE ) in particular who have a dire need at the position and will want one from the top tier which is thought to be OT1-OT4. If one or two teams in the top 6 surprise by going OT those teams in the early tens won't want to miss out.

   I think the trade up of Miami with Detroit makes sense for both franchises, as does the trade back for Carolina who need more capital because they are losing so many guys in FA. 

  I think Dallas won't take a safety that high although it's an obvious need for them. 

 Fwiw I like the Higgins pick. Shenault's injury history is a red flag, but he's a good story and I wish the lad good fortune after all he's been through.

  

 

   

[TigerJ]

I'm fine with Tee Higgins at #22.  He's a reasonable value at a position of need.  He's a big guy, but I'm getting the sense that he's a pretty athletic big guy.  He might not be as physical as you might like for a 6'4" receiver, but he's got good hands, good catch radius and will win 50/50s.  Most importantly, he's nothing like Kelvin Benjamin.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

It all depends on what happens during free agency.

[Logic]

Good job. 

I'm starting to wonder, though, if Tee Higgins is this year's "fans all project him in the 1st round, but he ends up going in the late 2nd or 3rd round" guy, a la DK Metcalf last year.

Unless a tremendous value at WR falls to Buffalo at 22, I still see them taking an edge rusher or on offensive tackle. All of this could change pending free agency, of course.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I'm not saying Simmons won't be good, but I'm trying to imagine another year of rooting for a team that struggles to score more than 17 points a game...our defense will be just fine without Simmons  

So I gotta say that I agree with mannc.......if we do that in the draft we better be REALLY aggressive on a WR in free agency and draft another one in the draft

 

 

46 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I'm fine with Tee Higgins at #22.  He's a reasonable value at a position of need.  He's a big guy, but I'm getting the sense that he's a pretty athletic big guy.  He might not be as physical as you might like for a 6'4" receiver, but he's got good hands, good catch radius and will win 50/50s.  Most importantly, he's nothing like Kelvin Benjamin.

I think back to all those TD passes that KB dropped and cringe

 

Keep Duke on the team for size as well

[The Firebaugh Kid]

8 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

What’s there not to like ?    His floor is Jarvis Landry imo.   

His game and body type is totally different...but yeah he could be a #1 in time.

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

His game and body type is totally different...but yeah he could be a #1 in time.

So a good plan would be to use some free agent money on a guy like Green....with the understanding that Tee is the future

[turftoe]

9 hours ago, Capco said:

The trade for Tua seems a little off.  #26 and #142 to move up 2 spots?  

 

I'm not sure Higgins will fall to 22 either, especially if he has a good combine.  

 

But a good read nonetheless.  Thank you Gunner.  

The Jets gave up 3 2nd round picks in 2018 to move from #6 to #3. Picks 37 and 49 in 2018 and pick 34 in 2019. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions get even more of a haul.

[Mark Vader]

9 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills whiffed on two Clemson WR's in their history.

 

I guess the third time is the charm in this draft.

 

Mocks will change about 33.000 times before the draft though.

Ummm..........Jerry Butler?

[njbuff]

1 hour ago, Mark Vader said:

Ummm..........Jerry Butler?

 

Oh crap, I knew I forgot somebody.

 

My bad.

 

He didn't have the longest career, but was solid.

 

I remember he broke his leg on the last TD reception of his career against Miami in 1986.

 

 

 

Take this advice from me........................................

 

Sometimes saying shyt off the top of your head isn't the wisest thing sometimes. Do the research. ?

 

 

Edited February 16, 2020 by njbuff

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

Good job. 

I'm starting to wonder, though, if Tee Higgins is this year's "fans all project him in the 1st round, but he ends up going in the late 2nd or 3rd round" guy, a la DK Metcalf last year.

Unless a tremendous value at WR falls to Buffalo at 22, I still see them taking an edge rusher or on offensive tackle. All of this could change pending free agency, of course.

 

I have a high 2nd round grade on Higgins. I actually have him a point below where I had Metcalf last year. I wasn't shocked Metcalf fell... though I mocked him in the first in both my mocks and I wouldn't be stunned if Higgins fell either. The difference between this year's WR class and last year's is those top 3. After that the next batch - Higgins, Shenault, Reagor, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Hamler - that is a bit like last year's class to me in that none of them are complete and all have question marks but all do one or two things at a really high level and it ends up coming down to which "type" you are looking for. 

[Thurman#1]

Holy cow, Bill. You are a crazy man. An awful lot of work on display here. Great stuff.

[Coach Tuesday]

10 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If I could somehow merge Higgins and Shenault, I'd be thrilled. But I have questions on both. Luckily it's not up to me to make that decision. In Beane I Trust.

 

I'm also interested in Thad Moss. Big body TE who can definitely go up and "Moss" people. Maybe Higgins in the 1st, and Moss later? Not sure where Moss is slated to go...

Moss is in the 5-7 round range.  Very slow on tape.  Depends how he tests I suppose.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Holy cow, Bill. You are a crazy man. An awful lot of work on display here. Great stuff.

 

I am a little crazy. The busier work gets (and it has been manic the last 3 weeks) the more I really seem to crack into my draft stuff when I get home. It must be my way of totally clearing my head. But having started a little later than normal this year I reckon I am a little ahead of where I was last year. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Moss is in the 5-7 round range.  Very slow on tape.  Depends how he tests I suppose.

 

Yea he is a receiving tight end who doesn't demonstrate much burst. I think he may go a little sooner than that though because of name recognition. Day 3 but early day 3 for me (and it is not a great TE class either which may help push him up). 

Edited February 16, 2020 by GunnerBill

[BillsFan17]

Shenault all day if he there when we pick, and its not even close.

[SoCal Deek]

Nice write up Gunner. I really wish the Bills didn’t need a WR so badly. I’m not a fan of taking one in the first round. Too much down side and too much investment for a guy who probably catches three to four passes per game. But....they really do need a guy.