I’m just going to come out and say it - this is the year

[hondo in seattle]

We clearly have a playoff caliber defense but the offense has to score more than 18 points per game.

 

There are reasons for optimists to think the O will improve.  The OL is still gelling.  Singletary is going to start playing again.  Zay's been replaced by Duke.  Josh is going to improve as he gains in experience and as he develops chemistry with a new group of wideouts.  And so on.  

 

While I'm hopeful (Napoleon once famously said: "A Bills fan is a dealer in hope"), I don't know how much the O will improve by the end of the year.  I don't think it'll be enough for 13 wins or a deep push into the playoffs.   I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

[egd]

Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This scenario spurred a change in the NBA about 10-15 years ago. I think it was Dallas who had the 2nd best record in the conference, but had to play a tougher seed, or something like that since they did not win their division. Then they were on the road in the second round, having to play the first seed.

 

Also BS if the 14-2 Bills have to play 16-0 New England in the divisional round, instead of the AFC Championship game. In MLB, division rivals cannot meet after the Wild Card game until the League Championship Series.

Edited October 10, 2019 by egd

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

54 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

I’m just going to come out

 

It wasn't a secret - everyone on the board already knew.

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, egd said:

Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This seems unlikely for many reasons. 

[McBean]

Agree 100%.
 

I believe this team is the 2015 Carolina Panthers

[egd]

3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

This seems unlikely for many reasons. 

 

Why? Baltimore is going to win the AFC North, and be the number 3 or 4 seed. Buffalo should win 12-14 games this year, and be second to New England, who will be 15-1 or 16-0.

[MJS]

46 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Unless Allen improves and cuts down on the stupid INTs there’s no way they’ll get to 12/13 wins.  The way they are winning now is not sustainable long term.  Offense needs to find a way to score some more points.  

Not sustainable long term, but sustainable for the season. Elite defenses can win championships. It's just not easy to keep elite defenses together because:

 

1) It requires the bulk of starters to return each year.

2) Coaches can't get poached.

3) There's a lot of moving parts.

4) The cost to the cap to keep a defense together increases every year.

 

That's why it is easier to get sustained success with an elite QB, because with an elite QB you can always stay in games and put up points.

 

But if you have an elite defense you can make a run for a championship. We just have to hope that our offense can become better so that this team isn't a flash in the pan.

[teef]

11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Is he out of puppies and cotton candy????

i'd assume so.  i have a dog, and i'm not really a cotton candy  guy, so fart rainbows is a no brainer for me.

[egd]

24 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Do we win the last game if dude can hit a couple FGs?

 

Yes, since if he had made two field goals, the final score would have been Buffalo 14, Tennessee 13.

Edited October 10, 2019 by egd

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

This team has what it takes to win 13 games and make a serious run at the AFC Championship.

 

I’m no homer. Trust me. That said - it’s time we stop being afraid of believing in this team. This isn’t 2004 or 2008 or 2011. 

 

It’s also time we stop thinking that progress is linear and we aren’t ready yet. Three reasons why 12 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team:

 

1. The schedule is as easy as it’s going to ever be. Easiest schedule in the NFL going forward. You have to take advantage of that. 

 

2. The defense is dominant. Third year in this system, they have arrived. Edmunds is on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Pro. Best safety tandem in football. A shut-down corner. And DEPTH. There is no reason for this team to not impose their will on each of the 11 offenses they will face moving forward.

 

3. The offense is better than they have showed. They aren’t scoring enough points yet. They’re turning it over too much. But they’re moving the ball (12th in total offense). Allen is only going to get better. The brand new pieces should improve as the season goes along. We have seen this offense at its worst - and we have won 4 out of 5 (possibly 5 out of 5 if our QB hadn’t gotten concussed).

 

No excuses. 12 wins minimum. 

 

I think 11 minimum having thought 10 before the season. But I agree in general. This team has a shot this year. It reminds me a lot of the Jags team of two years ago. Favourable schedule, suffocating defense, QB who is inconsistent but can make plays (Bortles was at his ceiling and I think Josh is still improving) and momentum building behind them. 

[Wayne Arnold]

 

51 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

Kroft & Motor will be nice additions after bye...

 

 

 

 

      ...#fingerscrossed

 

Save them for after the three-game home stand.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

19 minutes ago, egd said:

Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This scenario spurred a change in the NBA about 10-15 years ago. I think it was Dallas who had the 2nd best record in the conference, but had to play a tougher seed, or something like that since they did not win their division. Then they were on the road in the second round, having to play the first seed.

 

Also BS if the 14-2 Bills have to play 16-0 New England in the divisional round, instead of the AFC Championship game. In MLB, division rivals cannot meet after the Wild Card game until the League Championship Series.

First world problems if that scenario occurs

[CLTbills]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Unless Allen improves and cuts down on the stupid INTs there’s no way they’ll get to 12/13 wins.  The way they are winning now is not sustainable long term.  Offense needs to find a way to score some more points.  

Are you kidding? Defense is giving up basically 10 points a game (if you take out a pick six and a blocked punt TD).

 

That is basically the definition of sustainable winning. 

 

It wasn't sustainable when we were getting fluky turnovers two years ago. We were getting good bounces but not playing well enough to beat a lot of teams. Now, we have the best defense in football. That's sustainable.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

This team will go as far as Allen takes us. With our schedule and defense, 10 wins should be the floor. If Allen can tone down the turnovers then we can beat anyone.

 

This is 100% spot on. I trust in Allen and thus I predicted 11-12 wins prior to the season.

[HomeTeam]

A few weeks ago I dreamt  that we won the Superbowl, so there is that

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Looking at next year's schedule, basing it on how good teams are this year (yes it can all change,) it's going to be BRUTAL, with 4 road trips west. So I agree this is the year to make hay. We still haven't seen this full offense yet. Singletary will be back soon, maybe Kroft (not holding my breath.) Does Beane roll the dice and trades a high pick for that last piece of the puzzle? The "Process" says no, but the McBeanes have to see what we all see.

 

I have said from the end of 2018 that 2019 provided a big opportunity for the Bills to take a big step. I know it is almost sacrilege on this site to look ahead at schedules but I think there is merit in it. This team was set up to play a 3rd place schedule and get an NFCE with two teams in a major funk and an AFCN with more questions that at any time in the past decade. 

 

Looking ahead to next year the Bills could be faced with a 1st or 2nd place schedule, an NFCW with what look like at least 3 legitimate teams (SF, SEA, LAR), and an AFCW that is at the very least home to the number 1 young QB in football. That is a legitimately tougher proposition. So say the Bills do go 12-4 in 2019.... the same level of performance in 2020 could still result in a win or two less. 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have said from the end of 2018 that 2019 provided a big opportunity for the Bills to take a big step. I know it is almost sacrilege on this site to look ahead at schedules but I think there is merit in it. This team was set up to play a 3rd place schedule and get an NFCE with two teams in a major funk and an AFCN with more questions that at any time in the past decade. 

 

Looking ahead to next year the Bills could be faced with a 1st or 2nd place schedule, an NFCW with what look like at least 3 legitimate teams (SF, SEA, LAR), and an AFCW that is at the very least home to the number 1 young QB in football. That is a legitimately tougher proposition. So say the Bills do go 12-4 in 2019.... the same level of performance in 2020 could still result in a win or two less. 

 

So you're saying Josh Allen will regress next year.  Nice.

[whatdrought]

24 minutes ago, egd said:

 

Why? Baltimore is going to win the AFC North, and be the number 3 or 4 seed. Buffalo should win 12-14 games this year, and be second to New England, who will be 15-1 or 16-0.

 

I don't think Buffalo or NE wins more than 12 games. long season, stuff happens. We'll see what happens. I don't doubt we could play a team with a worse record, but It would like be a 11-5 to 9-7 type deal. At least how I see it. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

They need to improve at finishing drives. Until I see more consistency there I'm going to be a little skeptical. 

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

This team has what it takes to win 13 games and make a serious run at the AFC Championship.

 

I’m no homer. Trust me. That said - it’s time we stop being afraid of believing in this team. This isn’t 2004 or 2008 or 2011. 

 

It’s also time we stop thinking that progress is linear and we aren’t ready yet. Three reasons why 12 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team:

 

1. The schedule is as easy as it’s going to ever be. Easiest schedule in the NFL going forward. You have to take advantage of that. 

 

2. The defense is dominant. Third year in this system, they have arrived. Edmunds is on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Pro. Best safety tandem in football. A shut-down corner. And DEPTH. There is no reason for this team to not impose their will on each of the 11 offenses they will face moving forward.

 

3. The offense is better than they have showed. They aren’t scoring enough points yet. They’re turning it over too much. But they’re moving the ball (12th in total offense). Allen is only going to get better. The brand new pieces should improve as the season goes along. We have seen this offense at its worst - and we have won 4 out of 5 (possibly 5 out of 5 if our QB hadn’t gotten concussed).

 

No excuses. 12 wins minimum. 

I have to somewhat agree. The way the Bills are going, I am starting to get that Jim Kelly era feeling again. I am sensing that the Bills can win every week...I expect it.

[DasNootz]

So far this team hasn't shown a killer instinct to put teams away when they have the chance - every win, we've let inferior teams stick around and have a shot in the 4th quarter.  Hopefully that will change after the bye - but until we see the Defense AND Offense play a complete 4 quarter game, I have a hard time seeing this as a 13 win team.  I do think we're Wild Card team now - but we need a lot more polishing on the offensive side if we're going to make a serious run.

[nedboy7]

23 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Couple = two

Field goal = 3 points

2 x 3 = 6

Final score: 17-10 

10 + 6 = 16

17 > 16

 

Answer: YES

 

You do realize if they score a FG it kinda changes the rest of the game right? 

Or that they missed 4 FGs. 

I am impressed you can actually do math however. 

My point is we got quite lucky. 

[MyDogLuvsPB]

1 hour ago, Another Fan said:

Gotta hope everybody still says healthy but agree with the OP.  Hopefully there not gonna be happy winning 9 games and sneaking into the playoffs 

THIS!!

A few years ago Fred Jackson was on his way to winning league MVP (IMHO and according to most NFL pundits) until...................yup, he got hurt halfway through the season.

 

It's way too premature to make predictions.  However, if everything falls our way we "should' make the playoffs and at least host 1 game.  Sadly, we can't be the 1st or 2nd seed unless we win the division.   

 

[CaptnCoke11]

32 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Are you kidding? Defense is giving up basically 10 points a game (if you take out a pick six and a blocked punt TD).

 

That is basically the definition of sustainable winning. 

 

It wasn't sustainable when we were getting fluky turnovers two years ago. We were getting good bounces but not playing well enough to beat a lot of teams. Now, we have the best defense in football. That's sustainable.

If you think the defense is going to hold every opponent to under 20 points your sadly mistaken

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

Glad to see you've come around... 

 

[Forward Progress]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

They need to improve at finishing drives. Until I see more consistency there I'm going to be a little skeptical. 

 

We can finish drives, as we are third in red zone offense and we've done quite well when the field is short.  Our issue has been turnovers and sacks that push us out of field goal range.  These will both improve as Josh eliminates some of the mistakes that have hurt him in three of the first five games this season.  

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

We can finish drives, as we are third in red zone offense and we've done quite well when the field is short.  Our issue has been turnovers and sacks that push us out of field goal range.  These will both improve as Josh eliminates some of the mistakes that have hurt him in three of the first five games this season.  

 

I don't know if you're purposely being obtuse or if you just don't understand my point. We are 12th in the league in yards per game and we're 26th in points per game. That's because we aren't finishing drives.

[Scott7975]

5 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

If you think the defense is going to hold every opponent to under 20 points your sadly mistaken

 

There aren't that many teams left on our schedule that are capable of scoring 20 points against a  regular defense.  I disagree with you.  Maybe not every single team, but we don't have to win every single game either.

[H2o]

I already had the feeling this team was special and talked about it through the offseason. I think we not only get to the playoffs, but win in the playoffs this year. I want to see how they come out of the bye week against Miami. I want to see a dominant performance in all facets given they've had rest and more than ample time to prepare. The only thing that makes me nervous is we either seem to play up to the level of the team we are facing or down to it in a sense. In the end, it's on Josh. If he limits his mistakes, because every QB is going to make them, and doesn't throw the bad interception or take the bad sack then this team has the chance to be standing on the podium in February. Look at the Ravens teams that won the SB, the Tampa team, the Steelers team that won in '06, they all won with defense and just enough offense. If Josh can not put us in bad situations, take what the defense gives him, and play smart football for the rest of the season then why not us?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

You do realize if they score a FG it kinda changes the rest of the game right? 

Or that they missed 4 FGs. 

I am impressed you can actually do math however. 

My point is we got quite lucky. 

Technically (semantics) 

 

they missed 3 FGs and had 1 blocked.   

The misses can be subject to the elements or wrongly guessing the elements.  a blocked FG shouldn't be a "miss"  

 

[nedboy7]

Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Technically (semantics) 

 

they missed 3 FGs and had 1 blocked.   

The misses can be subject to the elements or wrongly guessing the elements.  a blocked FG shouldn't be a "miss"  

 

 

hey I appreciate an intelligent post. 

[NewEra]

IF we stay relatively healthy, I agree with everything. If Tre’davious, Tremaine, Milano, Levi, JBrown, JA,  p&h, Jerry miss extended time and we could Fall down a tier.  Missing a combination of those players would be tough to overcome in the playoffs.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Damn.  This thing is actually up in week 5 / 6 ??? 

 

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

 

the wild-card round  -   the third-seeded division winner hosts the sixth-seed wild card, and the fourth seed hosts the fifth. 

 

Currently it would be the Bills and Ravens 

Edited October 10, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[ddaryl]

If we can get some better consistency from our offense and limit the O mistakes then this team can definitely go the distance

[cba fan]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

Do we win the last game if dude can hit a couple FGs?

yes. even if he hit 3 fg's.

 

that makes it 16-14 Titans before Bills last drive is in winning field goal range. Housmoney then becomes Housemoney

 

(FYI: I know it does not work this way because if you go back and change one thing, everything after changes too, but fun to speculate)

[Forward Progress]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't know if you're purposely being obtuse or if you just don't understand my point. We are 12th in the league in yards per game and we're 26th in points per game. That's because we aren't finishing drives.

 

I guess I was accidentally obtuse.  My point was that when we make it to the red zone, we finish drives better than most teams in the league, which I think is really positive.  The red zone is more challenging on offenses where everything is tighter, so I am encouraged by this stat.

 

I completely agree with you that we haven't generated the points that we should have with how well we've moved the ball this year.  I feel that our offense is better than our points per game would indicate.  Josh's hero ball tendancies have turned the ball over too much and resulted in 20-yard sacks when we were already in field goal range.  I think Josh will make fewer of these mistakes in the second half of the season.

Edited October 10, 2019 by Forward Progress

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, H2o said:

I already had the feeling this team was special and talked about it through the offseason. I think we not only get to the playoffs, but win in the playoffs this year. I want to see how they come out of the bye week against Miami. I want to see a dominant performance in all facets given they've had rest and more than ample time to prepare. The only thing that makes me nervous is we either seem to play up to the level of the team we are facing or down to it in a sense. In the end, it's on Josh. If he limits his mistakes, because every QB is going to make them, and doesn't throw the bad interception or take the bad sack then this team has the chance to be standing on the podium in February. Look at the Ravens teams that won the SB, the Tampa team, the Steelers team that won in '06, they all won with defense and just enough offense. If Josh can not put us in bad situations, take what the defense gives him, and play smart football for the rest of the season then why not us?

 

My answer to why not us is that we have to find a way to beat the Patriots. And until we do it I am going to continue to doubt their ability to do it.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Agree 100% with this post. This is an 11-5/12-4 team. 

I think it's time to go all in.

[CLTbills]

25 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

If you think the defense is going to hold every opponent to under 20 points your sadly mistaken

What team currently on our schedule do you think will score more than 20 on us?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

What team currently on our schedule do you think will score more than 20 on us?

 

The eagles might, if we see good wentz. I don't think we'll see good wentz. I'm sure the Lamont Jackson fan club will claim they will, but I'm not convinced. Dallas? Again, good Dak or bad Dak?

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Joe in Winslow