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Wayne Arnold

I’m just going to come out and say it - this is the year

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We clearly have a playoff caliber defense but the offense has to score more than 18 points per game.

 

There are reasons for optimists to think the O will improve.  The OL is still gelling.  Singletary is going to start playing again.  Zay's been replaced by Duke.  Josh is going to improve as he gains in experience and as he develops chemistry with a new group of wideouts.  And so on.  

 

While I'm hopeful (Napoleon once famously said: "A Bills fan is a dealer in hope"), I don't know how much the O will improve by the end of the year.  I don't think it'll be enough for 13 wins or a deep push into the playoffs.   I hope I'm wrong.

 

 

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Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This scenario spurred a change in the NBA about 10-15 years ago. I think it was Dallas who had the 2nd best record in the conference, but had to play a tougher seed, or something like that since they did not win their division. Then they were on the road in the second round, having to play the first seed.

 

Also BS if the 14-2 Bills have to play 16-0 New England in the divisional round, instead of the AFC Championship game. In MLB, division rivals cannot meet after the Wild Card game until the League Championship Series.

Edited by egd

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1 minute ago, egd said:

Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This seems unlikely for many reasons. 

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Agree 100%.
 

I believe this team is the 2015 Carolina Panthers

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3 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

This seems unlikely for many reasons. 

 

Why? Baltimore is going to win the AFC North, and be the number 3 or 4 seed. Buffalo should win 12-14 games this year, and be second to New England, who will be 15-1 or 16-0.

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46 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Unless Allen improves and cuts down on the stupid INTs there’s no way they’ll get to 12/13 wins.  The way they are winning now is not sustainable long term.  Offense needs to find a way to score some more points.  

Not sustainable long term, but sustainable for the season. Elite defenses can win championships. It's just not easy to keep elite defenses together because:

 

1) It requires the bulk of starters to return each year.

2) Coaches can't get poached.

3) There's a lot of moving parts.

4) The cost to the cap to keep a defense together increases every year.

 

That's why it is easier to get sustained success with an elite QB, because with an elite QB you can always stay in games and put up points.

 

But if you have an elite defense you can make a run for a championship. We just have to hope that our offense can become better so that this team isn't a flash in the pan.

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11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Is he out of puppies and cotton candy????

i'd assume so.  i have a dog, and i'm not really a cotton candy  guy, so fart rainbows is a no brainer for me.

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24 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Do we win the last game if dude can hit a couple FGs?

 

Yes, since if he had made two field goals, the final score would have been Buffalo 14, Tennessee 13.

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1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

This team has what it takes to win 13 games and make a serious run at the AFC Championship.

 

I’m no homer. Trust me. That said - it’s time we stop being afraid of believing in this team. This isn’t 2004 or 2008 or 2011. 

 

It’s also time we stop thinking that progress is linear and we aren’t ready yet. Three reasons why 12 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team:

 

1. The schedule is as easy as it’s going to ever be. Easiest schedule in the NFL going forward. You have to take advantage of that. 

 

2. The defense is dominant. Third year in this system, they have arrived. Edmunds is on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Pro. Best safety tandem in football. A shut-down corner. And DEPTH. There is no reason for this team to not impose their will on each of the 11 offenses they will face moving forward.

 

3. The offense is better than they have showed. They aren’t scoring enough points yet. They’re turning it over too much. But they’re moving the ball (12th in total offense). Allen is only going to get better. The brand new pieces should improve as the season goes along. We have seen this offense at its worst - and we have won 4 out of 5 (possibly 5 out of 5 if our QB hadn’t gotten concussed).

 

No excuses. 12 wins minimum. 

 

I think 11 minimum having thought 10 before the season. But I agree in general. This team has a shot this year. It reminds me a lot of the Jags team of two years ago. Favourable schedule, suffocating defense, QB who is inconsistent but can make plays (Bortles was at his ceiling and I think Josh is still improving) and momentum building behind them. 

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51 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

Kroft & Motor will be nice additions after bye...

 

 

 

 

      ...#fingerscrossed

 

Save them for after the three-game home stand.

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19 minutes ago, egd said:

Wouldn't it be upsetting if the Bills won 14-15 games, and had to be a wild card and travel on the road for every playoff game? Imagine the 14-2 Bills having to travel to 10-6 Baltimore or whomever in the Wild Card round, especially if the Bills beat Baltimore in the regular season.

 

This scenario spurred a change in the NBA about 10-15 years ago. I think it was Dallas who had the 2nd best record in the conference, but had to play a tougher seed, or something like that since they did not win their division. Then they were on the road in the second round, having to play the first seed.

 

Also BS if the 14-2 Bills have to play 16-0 New England in the divisional round, instead of the AFC Championship game. In MLB, division rivals cannot meet after the Wild Card game until the League Championship Series.

First world problems if that scenario occurs

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1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Unless Allen improves and cuts down on the stupid INTs there’s no way they’ll get to 12/13 wins.  The way they are winning now is not sustainable long term.  Offense needs to find a way to score some more points.  

Are you kidding? Defense is giving up basically 10 points a game (if you take out a pick six and a blocked punt TD).

 

That is basically the definition of sustainable winning. 

 

It wasn't sustainable when we were getting fluky turnovers two years ago. We were getting good bounces but not playing well enough to beat a lot of teams. Now, we have the best defense in football. That's sustainable.

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1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

This team will go as far as Allen takes us. With our schedule and defense, 10 wins should be the floor. If Allen can tone down the turnovers then we can beat anyone.

 

This is 100% spot on. I trust in Allen and thus I predicted 11-12 wins prior to the season.

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33 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Looking at next year's schedule, basing it on how good teams are this year (yes it can all change,) it's going to be BRUTAL, with 4 road trips west. So I agree this is the year to make hay. We still haven't seen this full offense yet. Singletary will be back soon, maybe Kroft (not holding my breath.) Does Beane roll the dice and trades a high pick for that last piece of the puzzle? The "Process" says no, but the McBeanes have to see what we all see.

 

I have said from the end of 2018 that 2019 provided a big opportunity for the Bills to take a big step. I know it is almost sacrilege on this site to look ahead at schedules but I think there is merit in it. This team was set up to play a 3rd place schedule and get an NFCE with two teams in a major funk and an AFCN with more questions that at any time in the past decade. 

 

Looking ahead to next year the Bills could be faced with a 1st or 2nd place schedule, an NFCW with what look like at least 3 legitimate teams (SF, SEA, LAR), and an AFCW that is at the very least home to the number 1 young QB in football. That is a legitimately tougher proposition. So say the Bills do go 12-4 in 2019.... the same level of performance in 2020 could still result in a win or two less. 

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have said from the end of 2018 that 2019 provided a big opportunity for the Bills to take a big step. I know it is almost sacrilege on this site to look ahead at schedules but I think there is merit in it. This team was set up to play a 3rd place schedule and get an NFCE with two teams in a major funk and an AFCN with more questions that at any time in the past decade. 

 

Looking ahead to next year the Bills could be faced with a 1st or 2nd place schedule, an NFCW with what look like at least 3 legitimate teams (SF, SEA, LAR), and an AFCW that is at the very least home to the number 1 young QB in football. That is a legitimately tougher proposition. So say the Bills do go 12-4 in 2019.... the same level of performance in 2020 could still result in a win or two less. 

 

So you're saying Josh Allen will regress next year.  Nice.

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24 minutes ago, egd said:

 

Why? Baltimore is going to win the AFC North, and be the number 3 or 4 seed. Buffalo should win 12-14 games this year, and be second to New England, who will be 15-1 or 16-0.

 

I don't think Buffalo or NE wins more than 12 games. long season, stuff happens. We'll see what happens. I don't doubt we could play a team with a worse record, but It would like be a 11-5 to 9-7 type deal. At least how I see it. 

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They need to improve at finishing drives. Until I see more consistency there I'm going to be a little skeptical. 

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1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

This team has what it takes to win 13 games and make a serious run at the AFC Championship.

 

I’m no homer. Trust me. That said - it’s time we stop being afraid of believing in this team. This isn’t 2004 or 2008 or 2011. 

 

It’s also time we stop thinking that progress is linear and we aren’t ready yet. Three reasons why 12 wins should be the minimum expectation for this team:

 

1. The schedule is as easy as it’s going to ever be. Easiest schedule in the NFL going forward. You have to take advantage of that. 

 

2. The defense is dominant. Third year in this system, they have arrived. Edmunds is on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Pro. Best safety tandem in football. A shut-down corner. And DEPTH. There is no reason for this team to not impose their will on each of the 11 offenses they will face moving forward.

 

3. The offense is better than they have showed. They aren’t scoring enough points yet. They’re turning it over too much. But they’re moving the ball (12th in total offense). Allen is only going to get better. The brand new pieces should improve as the season goes along. We have seen this offense at its worst - and we have won 4 out of 5 (possibly 5 out of 5 if our QB hadn’t gotten concussed).

 

No excuses. 12 wins minimum. 

I have to somewhat agree. The way the Bills are going, I am starting to get that Jim Kelly era feeling again. I am sensing that the Bills can win every week...I expect it.

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